China’s Intentions Towards India Have Not Changed

While Chinese leaders are making statements that attempt to gloss over the developments of recent years and seek to convey that China is keen on normalising relations and that together the two can develop and grow their economies, the reality is quite different. At no point since April 2020 have Chinese leaders conceded their error in launching a military operation to “teach India a lesson”. On the contrary, a recent report by a Chinese think-tank reveals that China’s People’s Liberation Army has been augmenting its forces in Tibet and upgrading war preparedness.

China, which is an export-led economy whose manufacturing enterprises are geared to exports, is actually keen on getting unrestricted access to the Indian market. In the backdrop of the unprecedented tariff war with the United States, China will now be more desperate for the Indian and other markets. Chinese diplomats in India are making statements emphasising the need for China and India to work together so that they can develop and modernise. They are persuading their contacts and business lobbies in India to reinforce these arguments and pressure India to ease restrictions on Chinese businesses and FDI, resume flights etc. Beijing has, however, taken no tangible steps to ease the situation at the border or demonstrate goodwill.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statement on April 1, congratulating Indian President Ms Draupadi Murmu on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, was cosmetic. Xi Jinping repeated old arguments that both are ancient civilizations, major developing countries, important members of the "Global South" etc. and that good relations are mutually beneficial and the right choice for both. Without offering any substantive proposals, Xi Jinping advised that both countries should “view the relationship from a long-term perspective and strategic height”. Chinese Premier Li Qiang sent a similar message to Prime Minister Modi.

An earlier statement by the Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman (February 26) on the border issue was similarly banal. It spoke of implementing the resolutions to end the standoff in Ladakh and repeated "We are ready to work with the Indian side to jointly preserve the peace and tranquillity in the border areas". China nonetheless continues to construct border defence infrastructure, new airports, and induct new weaponry and troops. Neither has there been any de-induction or withdrawal of troops.

Beijing sees India as backward in manufacturing. Numerous articles in China’s regulated official media and the heavily censored Chinese social media have suggested that Chinese enterprises could shift their factories to India and manufacture and export from there. They point out, though, that these factories should have second-hand machinery so that India cannot catch up with China. A Chinese think-tank published an article on April 1, captioned "Should we be wary of India?", which disparagingly said "In 2020, the Modi government promised to invest $23 billion to revitalize the manufacturing industry. However, when the data came out, it turned out to be a black comedy - the proportion of manufacturing in GDP fell from 15.4% to 14.3%. This is not a small shop on the street making false accounts, but a large-scale rollover at the national level". It derided the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) programme as non-performing. It said during the Covid pandemic the PLI spent "real money to do things in 14 fields such as mobile phone manufacturing, electronic components, and medicine”, but “four years later, only 8% of the promised subsidies were issued, and the completion rate of corporate output value was only 37%.". It commented “on the government side, approving subsidies is slower than purifying the water of the Ganges”.

Other posts highlighted the social and caste differences in India and the incidence of sexual harassment. For example, a recent post on the popular Chinese web portal Weibo said "The Indian Youth Delegation is coming again. I still remember the scandal years ago when a 100-member Indian group visited China — the male members harassed female members and female hotel staff. Considering how obsessed Indian men are with sex, it’s best to publish their itinerary, so the women and females in the cities they visit can be on alert". The post attracted numerous comments endorsing the sentiments, including a number criticising the United Front for inviting such delegations and for being liberal with visas for Indians.

A lengthy article scathingly critical of India and which reveals the Chinese mindset was published in Guancha (Observer) on April 1. It was authored by Liu Zongyi, a senior Chinese academic and long-time commentator on China-India relations who is also Director of the South Asia Research Center, Shanghai Institute of International Studies. He could not have written or published the article without official approval. Reflecting the attitude of China’s leadership, Liu Zongyi bluntly said "we should not commemorate for the sake of commemoration nor sacrifice long-term economic and strategic interests for the sake of appearing superficially friendly". He was writing on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. He said that "as a long-time observer of China-India relations, he believes that China should not have overly high expectations of India. This is because, over the past five years, and in fact, over the past 60 years, India has developed a distorted and abnormal perception of China. As India continues to fabricate false narratives about China, this misconception spreads within the country, poisoning minds, and is subsequently shared with the rest of the world as Indians engage globally. This situation arises not only from conflicts of interest between China and India but also from differing historical views and strategic cultural traditions between the two countries. The rise of Hindu nationalism in India has further fuelled the spread of erroneous perceptions about China”.

Probably inadvertently giving away Chinese thinking, he disclosed that “before the 1962 Sino-Indian border conflict, in mid-September, Chairman Mao Zedong, while conversing with those around him, said: "I’ve thought for ten days and nights, but still can’t understand why Nehru wanted to mess with us." He added this particularly shows “China’s failure to grasp the unique mindset of the Indian side”. Asserting that “to ensure healthy development in China-India relations, mutual understanding and perception must be strengthened”, he mentioned that various suggestions were made during his visit to India in November 2023, but none have been “fulfilled to this day and have instead become bargaining chips for India to demand more from China”. Liu Zongyi recalled that the Indian Consulate in Shanghai had once invited him to attend the "International Millet Festival" where the Indian Consul General “proudly showed seven different varieties of millet from India and mentioned that millet remains were found during the Harappan Civilization over 5,000 years ago”. Liu Zongyi commented that while to an outsider it might seem like millet originated in India, the millet varieties showcased at the festival are all found in China. He added “In fact, China is the birthplace of millet”. Noting that "The ancient Indian civilization played a very positive role in the development and prosperity of Chinese civilization. Many Indian monks came to China to spread their teachings, while Chinese monks like Faxian and Xuanzang travelled to India to acquire scriptures”, he said when the Indian Ambassador to China, Vikram Misri, visited Shanghai in 2022 he “arrogantly asked us, several Chinese scholars: "What has China given to India?" Liu Zongyi commented that “With the rise of Hindu nationalism, India's sense of cultural superiority has grown stronger. India now aims to become the world's teacher (guru), but this mindset is actually not conducive to a country's development and progress".

Liu Zongyi asserted in conclusion that “India's elites primarily understand China through Western media, which has deepened the Indian public's misunderstandings of China. …. However, for India to achieve its rise as a great power and civilizational revival, it should not join forces with other great powers to contain China and replace China in global supply chains. Instead, India should seek a path of mutual learning and progress with China”. He observed that “Prime Minister Modi recently visited the United States, and from his dialogue with Trump, it is clear that Trump does not see India as an equal partner but rather as a ‘follower’ like Japan". Anticipating that the “India-U.S. relationship will experience more twists and turns, especially on tariffs and immigration issues”, he said “In light of this, India should reflect deeply!”

On March 21, the Henan-based Run Cheng Research and Finance Company published an article captioned ‘During the military reforms, the Tibet Military District, Joint Logistics Support Force, and the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police were all upgraded’. It cited a report published by China’s National Defense University and titled: ‘2024 Border Defense Construction Research Report’, which said “the upgrades of the Tibet Military District, the Joint Logistics Support Force, and the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police constitute a systematic project to comprehensively enhance high-altitude combat capabilities. The synergistic effects of the three forces after their upgrade have increased the overall combat effectiveness of border defence by 43.7%”. It recalled that after the upgrade of the Tibet Military District to a full Theatre Command level, with a command hierarchy parallel to the Theatre Commands and direct command from the Central Military Commission, the Tibet Military District acquired greater decision-making power and resource allocation capabilities.

It disclosed that according to PLA Daily (2024), the upgraded Tibet Military District now “oversees five high-altitude mechanized brigades, two mountain brigades, one special operations brigade, and multiple support units, representing a 28.5% increase in troop size as compared to earlier. It stated that the newly established Special Operations Brigade is equipped with the latest high-altitude special gear, including personal gear systems adapted to extreme cold and low oxygen, and high-precision strike weapons”. In a 2024 plateau combat exercise, this brigade demonstrated the ability to operate continuously for 72 hours—an important breakthrough in extreme high-altitude environments. There was also a qualitative leap in weapons and equipment and new systems tailored for high-altitude combat were introduced, including upgraded Type 15 light tanks, highland versions of the Z-20 helicopter, and long-range rocket systems suited for cold conditions.

It said the Tibet Detachment of the Joint Logistics Support Force was also upgraded from a full division level to a deputy corps level, and in early 2025, the upgraded detachment increased its personnel by 1,200. As part of innovation, it established a fully integrated regional supply distribution system, which reduced response time by 42%.

The article revealed that the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police was upgraded from a full division level to a deputy corps level, overseeing six detachments, with a 32% increase in total manpower. It now covers all seven prefecture-level cities in Tibet. By early 2025, the Corps had achieved 85% modernization. It introduced a new highland unmanned reconnaissance system, expanding border patrol coverage by 3.7 times and greatly enhancing control over border areas.

Saying that shifting geopolitics was the reason for the upgrade, it explained “Tibet borders several countries and serves as a crucial defensive line in China’s southwest. In recent years, the surrounding region has seen increasingly complex dynamics and new security challenges”. With the upgradation “a multidimensional and comprehensive border defence system has been formed—capable of effectively responding to all kinds of security threats”. In a routine 2024 press briefing, the Ministry of National Defense stated: “Strengthening military forces in the Tibet region is a necessary measure to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” It added that the upgradation of military forces in Tibet sends a clear signal: China has both the resolve and capacity to defend every inch of its southwestern border. Military analysts noted in their 2024 reports that “China’s comprehensive military upgrade in Tibet indicates a more proactive and assertive defensive posture in the plateau border regions.”

The article revealed too in 2024, the Tibet Military District established a High-Altitude Operations Technology Research Center, the logistics force created a Plateau Logistics Innovation Lab, and the armed police set up a Plateau Special Equipment Testing Center. A new personal oxygen supply system, which extended the continuous combat time of soldiers above 5,000 meters altitude by 3.6 times, had also been put in place.

The article revealed that in early 2025, the Central Military Commission issued special instructions for military construction in Tibet: “Further deepen reform achievements, enhance joint combat capabilities of the three forces, and provide strong guarantees for safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

It is apparent from China’s official media reporting on India and the developments along the 4057 kms LAC, that the conciliatory statements by Chinese leaders are only intended to gain access to India’s market. The tariff war with the U.S. makes it imperative for China to seek new markets and India is the largest untapped market in the Indo-Pacific. India also needs to be aware that the objectives of China’s military manoeuvres of April 2020 were not realised and a major potential challenge on the horizon is the issue of the XIVth Dalai Lama’s reincarnation.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>