Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (09-15 September 2024)

Economic

China Outspends US by Billions in Global Lending, Watchdog Says

China outspent the US almost nine-to-one on infrastructure projects around the world over eight years, according to a government watchdog report that highlighted the challenge Washington faces as it vies for influence against Beijing in poorer countries. China lent $679 billion under its Belt and Road Initiative from 2013 to 2021 for projects that involved highways, power plants and telecommunications, the Government Accountability Office said. The US provided $76 billion in that same period, it said. The biggest chunk of the Chinese money — $104 billion — went to Russia, in a sign of those two countries’ deepening cooperation. The rest funded a railway line in Kenya, hydroelectric power transmission in Angola, and other projects around the world, mostly in low and lower-middle income countries. The investments could further enhance China’s “diplomatic and strategic leverage over host countries, as well as its soft power and global reputation,” the report said. It cited recipients as saying Belt and Road “served to meet significant infrastructure needs in their countries.” Representatives of the Export–Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation did not immediately respond to requests for comments on Sept 12 evening. Click here to read... [2]

Japan still far from 45% goal in attaining food self-sufficiency

Japan’s calorie-based food self-sufficiency rate in fiscal 2023 stood at 38 percent, unchanged for the third consecutive year, the farm ministry said. The rate has remained at a low level for more than 10 years, prompting the government in March 2020 to set a target of raising it to 45 percent by fiscal 2030. In the last fiscal year, domestic wheat production was up a brisk 10 percent year on year, which helped push up the self-sufficiency ratio. However, the volume of sugar production over the same period dropped by 30 percent, as sugar beets grown in Hokkaido were affected by blight. Other factors also came into play, the farm ministry said Aug. 8. Under an amended Basic Law on Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas this past May, the government outlined its policy to bolster food security and increase domestic food production. The nation’s food self-sufficiency ratio is sharply lower than the corresponding figures for leading Western nations. For example, the figures for the United States, France and Italy are 104 percent, 121 percent and 55 percent, respectively. “We will further promote a shift to domestic production for wheat, soybeans and vegetables for processing use, along with other crops,” farm minister Tetsushi Sakamoto said Aug. 8. “Just because the figure remains unchanged, it doesn’t mean our policy is not working effectively.” Click here to read... [3]

China announces sharp rise in retirement age – media

The Chinese government has approved a plan to raise the retirement age in an effort to address the challenge of an aging population, according to local media reports. The country’s current retirement ages are among the lowest in the world. The new policy was passed on Sept 13 by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. The change, which will take place over 15 years starting in January, will raise the retirement age for men from the current 60 to 63. The threshold for female office workers’ will be raised from 55 to 58, while female blue-collar workers, who could previously retire aged 50, will now have to wait until 55. The hike is aimed at “adapting to the new situation of demographic development in China, and fully developing and utilizing human resources,” the committee was quoted as saying. According to Reuters, China’s minister of human resources and social security, Wang Xiaoping, said on Sept 13 that the change would be implemented on a flexible and voluntary basis, noting that employees will have the option of retiring earlier or extending retirement for a period of up to three years. The adjustment of the retirement age is China’s first since 1978. It is based on longer average life expectancy, extended years of schooling, the current population structure, and improving healthcare conditions, the committee reportedly said. Click here to read... [4]

Tough-on-China bills set for approval by U.S. House this week

U.S. lawmakers are pushing ahead this week with a string of bills aimed at countering China, including one to keep federal contractors from working with Chinese biotechnology companies, as Congress returns from its summer recess. In what has been dubbed "China Week," the House of Representatives will vote on dozens of bills targeting China and its companies, according to a website maintained by the congressional chamber. Of the 36 bills currently pending in the House, 31 of them, including the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act and the HKETO Certification Act, will be voted on by bypassing a parliamentary procedure for swift approval. The BIOSECURE Act, introduced in January, looks to block federal contracts with five Chinese biotechnology equipment and services providers over national security concerns. The bill targets R&D and technology companies Wu Xi App Tec and Wu Xi Biologics, along with genomics companies BGI Group, MGI and Complete Genomics. It has drawn bipartisan support since its introduction by then-Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, now retired. The companies have said their work does not pose national security risks to the U.S. Other legislation expected to be voted on includes measures to restrict business with Chinese supply chains for electric vehicles and to limit DJI drones from using American communications infrastructure. Click here to read... [5]

U.S. committed to Bangladesh economic growth, to give $202m more in aid

The United States is committed to supporting Bangladesh's inclusive economic growth, institution building and development and will provide an additional $202 million of aid, a U.S. delegation said during a visit to Dhaka on Sept 15. The six-member delegation, led by Deputy Under Secretary of the Treasury Department Brent Neiman, is the first from the U.S. since the interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took office last month following the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after deadly protests. In a televised address last week, Chief Adviser Yunus said the government was appealing for $5 billion in aid to help stabilize an economy that has been struggling since the Ukraine war sharply increased the cost of fuel and food imports. Bangladesh last year sought a $4.7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) said it would provide a $202 million grant to promote good governance, social, human and economic opportunity and resilience, in a deal signed on Sept 15 in Dhaka. It follows a 2021 agreement where USAID pledged a total of $954 million between 2021 and 2026, of which $425 million had already been provided. In a statement released on its Facebook page following the meeting with Yunus, the U.S. embassy emphasised its readiness to support Bangladesh in its pursuit of a more "equitable and inclusive future." Click here to read... [6]

Bangladesh seeks help from FBI, U.N. agency to recover laundered money

Bangladesh will collaborate with international agencies to bring back billions of dollars laundered out of the country during the past 15 years under the rule of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Officials of Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) this week had meetings with officials from the FBI and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Both organizations came up with offers of assistance in recovering laundered money. This would be the first time for the FBI to help Bangladesh. Khorsheda Yasmeen, secretary of the ACC, told media that the FBI officials inquired about how Bangladesh's investigation and intelligence activities are being carried out. "They also asked us to explore any assistance [from the FBI] if necessary, in recovering laundered money," she said. The FBI team will visit Bangladesh soon again to further discuss methods of assistance, ACC Deputy Director Aktarul Islam told Nikkei Asia. The FBI National Press Office declined to comment to Nikkei when asked by email for details about possible cooperation with the ACC. The office of the chief adviser in Bangladesh's interim government estimates that nearly $100 billion was smuggled out of the country during the last 15 years. It is believed that funds are being smuggled out mainly through trade mis-invoicing and a type of negotiable bill of exchange called hundi, which was developed in medieval India for carrying out trade and credit transactions and now is used to avoid normal banking channels. Click here to read... [7]

Oil prices fall to lowest mark since 2021

Crude prices plummeted on Sept 10 after OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for this year and the next, the producer group’s second consecutive downward revision. Global benchmark Brent was down 3.7%, at $69.08 a barrel as of 18:30 GMT. It marks the first time that Brent has been trading below $70 since December 2021. The US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), nosedived over 4% at $65.72 per barrel. WTI crude futures hit their lowest levels since May 2023. OPEC said in a monthly report on Sept 10 that world oil demand would rise by about two million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, some 80,000 bpd slower than its previous forecast. Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023. The world’s largest crude importer, China, accounted for the bulk of the latest downgrade, with OPEC trimming its forecast on the country’s demand growth in 2024 to 650,000 bpd. “Looking ahead, China’s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,” OPEC said. “However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward,” the report warned. Click here to read... [8]

IMF Says China Subsidy Fears Overdone in Implicit Critique of US

The International Monetary Fund said concern that China’s subsidies and other industrial policies are fuelling its growing trade surplus are misplaced, in an implicit critique of US claims that Beijing is dumping its industrial “overcapacity” on the rest of the world. China’s aid to manufacturers has only modest effects on exports, top IMF economists wrote in an analysis published Sept 19. They highlight that support has been concentrated in areas including software, electric vehicles, computer chips and green technology that account for a fraction of overseas shipments. The view that Beijing’s trade and industrial policy could lead to a second “China shock” of layoffs and plant closings in other economies is a popular one in Washington at the White House and Treasury Department. But it’s “incomplete at best and should be replaced with a macro view,” the IMF officials said. “External balances are ultimately determined by macroeconomic fundamentals, while the link to trade and industrial policy is more tenuous,” they wrote. The IMF officials, led by chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, didn’t explicitly criticize or call out the US government, which is the fund’s largest shareholder. The concern isn’t exclusively an American one, either, with the influx of cheap Chinese goods to global markets sparking a backlash in South America and Europe, too. Click here to read... [9]

German Finance Chief Doubles Down on Opposition to Joint EU Debt

Germany’s finance chief doubled down on his opposition to joint European Union debt sales, saying that the government in Berlin has “democratic and fiscal problems” with the proposal published Sept 09 by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Speaking Sept 10 in the lower house of parliament, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said regular common EU bond issuance would be unwelcome for two reasons: It would shift political responsibility for economic policy to the European level and potentially lead to excessive borrowing across the bloc. “Each individual EU member state must continue to bear responsibility for its own public finances,” said Lindner, who is the chairman of the business-friendly Free Democrats, the smallest party in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-member ruling coalition. “Liability is not only an important instrument in the private sector to avoid irresponsible risks, but the same also applies between nations,” he added. In his report on competitiveness, Draghi on Sept 10 urged the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($883 billion) extra a year and commit to sales of joint bonds to help make the bloc more competitive with China and the US. As well as Lindner, a self-styled fiscal hawk, neither of Germany’s other two parties in government are keen on the idea, even if Economy Minister Robert Habeck — a member of the Greens who is also the vice chancellor — said he supports Draghi’s call for investments in Europe in principle. Click here to read... [10]

North American Banks Boost Fossil Fuel Funding as European Lenders Retreat

Regional banks in North America have been striking more deals to lend money to the oil, natural gas, and coal industry in recent years, while many European lenders have either shrunk financing for fossil fuels or pledged to lower their exposure to the sector. As a result of the ongoing shift in financing deals in the fossil fuels sector, North American banks are not competing with European lenders for financing oil and gas anymore. Regional banks Texas Capital Bank, Truist Securities Inc, FHN Financial, Cadence Bank, BOK Financial Corp, and Canadian Western Bank have boosted the most the number of their loan deals in the fossil fuel sector since 2022, compared with the 2016-2021 period, data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Sept 10. At the same time, the banks that have seen the biggest retreat in the number of loan deals in the industry are France’s BNP Paribas, Natixis, and Societe Generale, Spain’s BBVA, and Dutch ING Groep, according to Bloomberg’s data. Regional banks in North America are “active and hungry” for new deals in the fossil fuels industry, Marisol Salazar, senior vice president and manager for energy banking at BOK Financial, told Bloomberg. While major European banks are competing to announce new policies limiting funding to oil and gas projects, smaller regional U.S. banks have boosted significantly their lending to oil and gas firms over the past two years. Click here to read... [11]

Permian Basin Gas Pipeline Capacity Set to Increase with New Projects

Natural gas pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin is gearing up for significant gains with the upcoming launch of the Matterhorn Express Pipeline. The 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) pipeline, expected to begin service this month, was developed by a joint venture including EnLink Midstream, Whitewater, Devon Energy, and MPLX, and will transport gas from the Permian Basin to Katy, near Houston, Texas. Natural gas production from the Permian Basin, the basin primarily associated with growing oil output, has more than doubled since 2018. This surge has reduced regional natural gas prices, particularly at the Waha Hub, where prices have been negative for much of 2024. Prices at the Waha Hub have been below zero nearly half of all 2024 trading days and hit a low of -$6.41 per MMBtu in late August, according to Natural Gas Intelligence data cited by the EIA. To address these price challenges at the Waha Hub, additional pipeline projects are in development. Three major projects—Apex Pipeline (2.0 Bcf/d), Blackcomb Pipeline (2.5 Bcf/d), and Saguaro Connector Pipeline (2.8 Bcf/d)—are set to add 7.3 Bcf/d of capacity by 2027. These pipelines will help transport Permian gas to various Texas and Mexican markets, alleviating bottlenecks. Click here to read... [12]

Iraq Rejects U.S. Accusations of Enabling Iran Oil Smuggling

Iraq has rejected allegations made by U.S. Congressmen that it was helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions by channelling some of its oil revenues to Iranian entities. Last week, five Congressmen called on President Joe Biden to ban the Iraqi oil minister from attending events in the United States because of his alleged involvement in Iranian sanction evasion. The group also demanded an investigation into Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani and other Iraqi officials on their alleged participation in sanction evasion. “There are multiple public reports alleging that Abdul-Ghani and other officials in the Iraqi government are involved in industrial-scale sanctions evasion on behalf of the regime in Iran,” the Congressmen wrote. “Given these reports, we respectfully request that your administration prevent Minister Abdul-Ghani from attending events in the United States until these allegations are investigated and the findings are presented to Congress.” In response, the Iraqi oil ministry said “The letter's contents have no foundation. The only accurate statement in the letter is that these are allegations and do not rise to the level of verified information,” as quoted by Shafaq News. “Iraq only engages with a select group of reputable global companies, including American firms, under contracts that follow international transparency and legal guidelines,” the ministry also said. Click here to read... [13]

Why No Major Oil Company Is Rushing to Drill Pakistan's Huge Oil Reserves

A long exploration effort has led to the reportedly massive discovery of oil and gas reserves in Pakistan’s territorial waters, a cache so large that it is said it could change the economic trajectory of the beleaguered country. But no one is rushing to drill in Pakistan, and experts are concerned about jumping the gun. According to Dawn News TV, the three-year survey was undertaken to verify the presence of the oil and gas reserves. “If this is a gas reserve, it can replace LNG imports and if these are oil reserves, we can substitute imported oil,’’ former Ogra (Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority) member Muhammad Arif told Dawn TV. However, Arif has cautioned that it would take years before the country could be able to exploit its newfound fossil fuel resources, adding that exploration alone required a hefty investment of around $5 billion and it might take four to five years to extract reserves from an offshore location. Pakistan covers 29% of gas, 85% of oil, 50% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and 20% of coal requirements through imports, according to the Economic Times. Pakistan's total energy import bill in 2023 clocked in at $17.5 billion, a figure projected to rise to $31 billion in seven years, as per an Express Tribune report. The new discovery is no doubt a big boon for the struggling economy. Click here to read... [14]

China’s investment in Africa is getting a shake-up as the next belt and road phase beckons

China is revising its belt and road playbook in Africa, as it moves its investment focus to agriculture, manufacturing, industrialisation and green energy, including critical metals. The shift is part of Beijing’s pivot towards “small but beautiful” projects in its African investment strategy. But while this could see fewer mega projects financed directly through Chinese bilateral lending, it does not mean Beijing will stop bankrolling major projects that it considers critical to growing China-Africa trade. Nearly US$51 billion was allocated by China for lending and investment in Africa at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit held in Beijing earlier this month. More than half that amount – 210 billion yuan (US$29.5 billion) – is a credit line. Beijing is also encouraging more Chinese companies to partner with African businesses and governments through public-private partnership (PPP) financing models, such as build-operate-transfer agreements. It is a model that built the 27km Nairobi Expressway in 2022, which was funded and constructed by state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation. The Chinese company will operate the expressway for three decades to recover its investment before transferring ownership to the Kenyan government. Similar financing models have been used in Uganda, Nigeria and Zambia. At the September 4-6 FOCAC summit, Beijing also pledged to encourage Chinese financial institutions and companies to get involved in African infrastructure projects through different types of public-private partnerships “to create better conditions for industrialisation in Africa”. Click here to read... [15]

Western firms pulling back from China – reports

China is gradually losing its appeal as an investment destination for Western companies, according to reports released this week by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. The two lobby groups conducted surveys among investors and owners of businesses in China. According to their findings, many respondents have been consolidating their operations in the country and no longer see the Chinese market as a primary investment destination. An annual poll by the American Chamber of Commerce shows that the number of businesses considering China as their top investment destination has dropped to 47%, the lowest in 25 years. A survey by the EU chamber shows that only 15% of respondents named China as their top investment destination, while previously the figure stood at 20%. “Some European Chamber members have begun both siloing their China supply chains and operations, and shifting investments previously planned for China to other markets to increase supply chain resilience, take advantage of comparatively lower labour costs and hedge against future geopolitical shocks,” the EU lobby group stated in its report. Experts from both lobbies suggest that one of the main drivers behind the trend is the slump in China’s economic growth. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

U.S. and Chinese Militaries Find Reason to Start Talking Again

The U.S. and Chinese militaries are taking tentative steps to re-engage diplomatically after a two-year freeze in relations, seeking to dial back the risk of confrontation while tensions simmer over Beijing’s activities in the South China Sea and its support of Russia. Jump-starting talks between military leaders has been a priority of the Biden administration, but one that has previously faced stiff resistance in Beijing. In the past few weeks, U.S. officials have netted long-sought meetings with senior Chinese military officials including Gen. Wu Yanan, whose command includes operations in the South China Sea. Wu is also expected to participate in a military conference in Hawaii this month, a senior U.S. defense official said Sept 12. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has dispatched Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, to attend the Xiangshan Forum, an international security conference in Beijing that began Sept 12. The conference offers a rare venue in which senior defense officials from China, the U.S., Russia and other powers convene as they push competing visions of global security. “The bottom line is that we’re going to keep open lines of communication because that’s important for preventing competition from veering into conflict,” the U.S. defense official said. China’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. Click here to read... [17]

China's defense minister calls for military cooperation pacts

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun on Sept 13 said all countries have the right to pursue their interests and vowed to enhance military cooperation. Delivering a keynote address to the Beijing Xiangshan Forum on defense and security in the Chinese capital, Dong said every country "should have an equal right to participate in international affairs" and uphold their legitimate rights and interests. He called for an orderly "multipolar" world and said major powers bear a heavy responsibility amid growing geopolitical tensions. "Major countries must take the lead in safeguarding global security, abandon a zero-sum mindset and refrain from bullying the small and the weak," Dong said, without going into specifics. The minister's call comes amid increasing friction between China and not only its superpower rival the U.S. but also smaller neighbours in the South China Sea, particularly the Philippines, over maritime territory. Dong used the three-day forum -- attended by about 500 officials from 90 countries -- to emphasize Beijing's willingness to forge broader defense ties and security pacts. He said that the Chinese armed forces adhere to the Global Security Initiative (GSI), a vaguely defined program announced by President Xi Jinping back in 2022 with a promise of making the world a safer place. Click here to read... [18]

9 LDP candidates launch party leadership bids with high hopes

Nine ruling Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidates dashed out of the blocks on Sept. 12, the first day of official campaigning, on a two-week sprint to the vote. With all vying to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the nine hopefuls launched their campaigns using various words and deeds--from using a superstition as motivation to delivering policy speeches at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo’s Nagatacho district. On another sweltering late summer day in Tokyo, with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees, one candidate started off hotter than the rest. Sanae Takaichi, 63, economic security minister, showed up in winter clothing at her campaign launch ceremony held in the Diet building. “I’m wearing the same clothes I wore on the previous LDP presidential election day, which I regrettably lost,” Takaichi explained. “You may think this is bad luck, but back then at that time, at the moment of my defeat, I mumbled to myself, ‘I’ll do it again.’ ” She added, “This time, I am going to win. With that in mind, I am wearing these hot winter clothes today.” Takaichi, who hopes to become the first female president of the ruling party, also paid a visit to Hiejinja shrine near the Diet building in Tokyo’s Chiyoda Ward. After offering prayers, she said with a smile, “With a clean slate, I will do my very best.” Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, a former economic security minister, told the media in the Diet building, “I will make Japan a leading country in the world, and a truly autonomous country that does not go every which way following the trends of other countries. I will run for the presidency with this strong desire in mind.” Click here to read... [19]

Bangladesh calls for faster resettlement process for Rohingya

The head of Bangladesh's interim government, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, on Sept 08 called for a fast-tracked third-country resettlement of Rohingya Muslims living in the south Asian country, as a new wave of refugees flee escalating violence in Myanmar's Rakhine state. Around 8,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled across the border to Bangladesh in recent months as fighting intensifies between Myanmar's ruling junta and the Arakan Army, a powerful ethnic militia drawn from the country's Buddhist majority. The new arrivals add to the more than one million Rohingya refugees already living in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar district, most of whom fled a military-led crackdown in Myanmar in 2017. The Rohingya refugees have little hope of returning to their homeland, where they are largely denied citizenship and other basic rights. The call to expedite resettlement efforts was made during a meeting with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in which Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government, said the "resettlement process should be easy, regular, and smooth." Abdusattor Esoev, head of the IOM in Bangladesh, said the resettlement of Rohingya to third countries resumed in 2022 after a gap of 12 years, but has only gathered pace this year, a statement from the chief adviser's office said. Washington has reaffirmed its commitment to resettle thousands of Rohingya in the United States, but the process has not yet been accelerated, the statement said. Click here to read... [20]

N. Korea discloses uranium enrichment facility as Kim calls for more nuclear weapons

North Korea offered a rare glimpse into a secretive facility to produce weapons-grade uranium as state media reported Sept 13 that leader Kim Jong Un visited the area and called for stronger efforts to “exponentially” increase the number of his nuclear weapons. It’s unclear if the site is at the North’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex, but it’s the North’s first disclosure of a uranium-enrichment facility since it showed one at Yongbyon to visiting American scholars in 2010. While the latest unveiling is likely an attempt to apply more pressure on the U.S. and its allies, the images North Korea’s media released of the area could provide outsiders with a valuable source of information for estimating the amount of nuclear ingredients that North Korea has produced. During a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and the production base of weapon-grade nuclear materials, Kim expressed “great satisfaction repeatedly over the wonderful technical force of the nuclear power field” held by North Korea, the official Korean Central News Agency reported. KCNA said that Kim went around the control room of the uranium enrichment base and a construction site that would expand its capacity for producing nuclear weapons. North Korean state media photos showed Kim being briefed by scientists while walking along long lines of tall gray tubes, but KCNA didn’t say when Kim visited the facilities and where they are located. Click here to read... [21]

Sixty countries endorse ‘blueprint’ for AI use in military; China opts out

About 60 countries including the United States endorsed a “blueprint for action” to govern responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military on Sept 10, but China was among those which did not support the legally non-binding document. The Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit in Seoul, the second of its kind, follows one held in The Hague last year. At that time, around 60 nations including China endorsed a modest “call to action” without legal commitment. Government representatives said on Sept 10 said this year’s “blueprint” was more action-oriented; in keeping with advanced discussions and developments in the military such as AI-enabled drones being rolled out by Ukraine, which also endorsed the document. “We are making further concrete steps,” Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans told Reuters. “Last year ... was more about creating shared understanding, now we are getting more towards action.” This includes laying out what kind of risk assessments should be made, important conditions such as human control, and how confidence-building measures can be taken in order to manage risks, he said. Among the details added in the document was the need to prevent AI from being used to proliferate weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by actors including terrorist groups, and the importance of maintaining human control and involvement in nuclear weapons employment. Click here to read... [22]

Over 30 countries looking to work with BRICS – Putin

Members of BRICS are planning to deepen their partnership within the organization, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept 12, adding that 34 nations have expressed readiness to participate in the group in one form or another. BRICS was founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining in 2011. The group expanded this year when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates became full members. Russia, which is currently chairing the organization, will host the next BRICS summit in the city of Kazan on October 22-24. “We could not ignore the growing interest in BRICS on the part of many states. As of today, more than three dozen countries, 34 states to be exact, have declared their desire to join the activities of our group,” Putin said at a meeting of BRICS security representatives in St. Petersburg. According to the Russian leader, members have agreed to discuss granting partner status to countries willing to participate in the group’s work, and to potentially approve some of the bidders during the upcoming summit in Kazan. “We are also planning to consider the range of possible candidates for receiving such status,” Putin said. BRICS countries currently have about 3.6 billion people, or 45% of the world’s population. Click here to read... [23]

Chinese Premier Li Qiang cements ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE, including on new energy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang returned from his visit to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates on Sept 13 after forging closer ties with both Gulf states. Pledges for closer cooperation included the new energy sector, described by a Chinese analyst as “crucial” to the Middle Eastern economy. Li travelled to the United Arab Emirates on Sept 11 evening after wrapping up a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia. He met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in the capital Abu Dhabi the following day, with both leaders pledging to enhance the comprehensive strategic partnership between their countries. According to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry, Li called for deeper cooperation in new energy, electric vehicles, high-end manufacturing, biomedicine, digital economy and other fields, and for reinforcing collaboration in investment and traditional sectors like oil and gas. “The two countries should jointly make a forward-looking layout of emerging industries and future industries, and cultivate more new economic growth points,” Li was quoted as saying during what was his first visit to the UAE since taking office. His trip came three months after Sheikh Mohamed’s state visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping, when both sides vowed closer cooperation, including in cutting-edge technologies. Click here to read... [24]

Armenia offers peace deal to Azerbaijan

The Armenian government has offered to sign a 16-article peace agreement with Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced during a parliamentary session on Sept 11. According to the Armenian leader, Yerevan and Baku cannot currently sign a treaty that would resolve all the issues between the two countries. Instead, he has proposed to sign off on a deal that would cover areas that the two sides have already agreed upon. Pashinyan’s offer comes after months of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the escalation of conflict in - and Armenian withdrawal from - the Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. The two sides were at odds over control of the disputed territory for decades and engaged in a series of bloody conflicts over its control. Predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians, the region was previously under the de facto control of Yerevan. However, in 2023, Baku launched a large-scale offensive and took over the territory, later dissolving the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. Most of the Armenians living in the region subsequently fled. Since then, Yerevan and Baku have been attempting to reach a conclusive peace deal. During a visit to Baku last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is prepared to play a role in helping to resolve the long-running feud between the two countries. Click here to read... [25]

Russia warns NATO of ‘direct war’ over Ukraine

Granting Kiev permission to use Western-supplied long-range weapons would constitute direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict by NATO, Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has said. Moscow will treat any such attack as coming from the US and its allies directly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept 12, explaining that long-range weapons rely on Western intelligence and targeting solutions, neither of which Ukraine is capable of. NATO countries would “start an open war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons, Nebenzia told the UN Security Council on Sept 13. “If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia,” Moscow’s envoy said. “In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.” “Our Western colleagues will not be able to dodge responsibility and blame Kiev for everything,” Nebenzia added. “Only NATO troops can program the flight solutions for those missile systems. Ukraine doesn’t have that capability. This is not about allowing Kiev to strike Russia with long-range weapons, but about the West making the targeting decisions.” Russia considers it irrelevant that Ukrainian nationalists would technically be the ones pulling the trigger, Nebenzia explained. “NATO would become directly involved in military action against a nuclear power. I don’t think I have to explain what consequences that would have,” he said. Click here to read... [26]

How Kamala Harris Baited Trump Into a Debate on Her Terms

Kamala Harris staked her debate strategy on Sept 10 night on trolling Donald Trump before a national TV audience, leaving her opponent on the back foot. The Democratic presidential nominee baited her Republican opponent into defending his felony convictions, his wealth and his role in overturning the federal right to an abortion. She needled him about the enthusiasm of his rally crowds and his propensity for outlandish statements and conspiracy theories. It took only minutes for the former president to validate her approach, with Trump diverting a discussion over immigration and border security into unfounded online rumours about undocumented migrants, who he said were now eating people’s pets in an Ohio suburb. “The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country, and it’s a shame,” Trump said, even as one of the debate moderators, ABC News’ David Muir, noted that the claims were not true. The US and its allies placed some restrictions on the use of their weapons, so they could claim not to be directly involved in the conflict with Russia, while arming Ukraine to the tune of $200 billion. The moment embodied the former president’s lack of restraint and defined a clash where the Republican time and again allowed himself to be distracted from his efforts to define Harris. Click here to read... [27]

US greenlights military assistance to Egypt, overruling rights concerns

The administration of United States President Joe Biden has said it will provide Egypt with $1.3bn in military assistance, overriding concerns about ongoing rights abuses by the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Normally, part of that aid would be subject to conditions requiring Egypt to implement improvements to its human rights record. But on Sept 11, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Congress that the military assistance would not face the usual conditions. A spokesperson for the US State Department later explained that those requirements were waived in the name of national security. “This decision is important to advancing regional peace and Egypt’s specific and ongoing contributions to US national security priorities, particularly to finalise a ceasefire agreement for Gaza, bring the hostages home, surge humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in need, and help bring an enduring end to the Israel-Hamas conflict,” the spokesperson told the news outlet Reuters. Egypt, an important US ally in the Middle East, has played a key role in ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, as leaders seek an end to the war in Gaza. Since 2020, the US has withheld a portion of Egypt’s security assistance — amounting to around $320m — as a form of leverage to push for progress on human rights and democracy. Click here to read... [28]

Petrostates Push Back Against UN Talks on Shift from Fossil Fuels

Several major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are pushing back against talks on an agreement at the upcoming COP29 climate summit to mitigate the use of fossil fuels, negotiators from Western countries told the Financial Times. The group of oil-rich nations, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Bolivia, are hindering efforts for talks on the phase down of fossil fuels. COP29 will be held in November in Azerbaijan, which is highly dependent on oil and gas sales for its economic growth. The previous climate summit, COP28, which ran one day into extra time amid heated debates on the future of fossil fuel use and production, ended with a compromise text referencing for the first time a call to all parties to transition away from fossil fuels. The summit host, the United Arab Emirates, which is also one of OPEC’s top producers and exporters, hailed “the UAE consensus” as a historic deal to reduce emissions. The final text adopted by the countries references for the first time in such summit declarations an explicit call for transitioning away from fossil fuels. But the final agreement was watered down compared to any references to phasing out or phasing down of fossil fuels, as objections from many oil exporting countries – led by Saudi Arabia – held back talks in the final days and sent the conference into overtime. Click here to read... [29]

Iran's Missile Diplomacy Raises Stakes in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union on September 9 described as "credible" information provided by allies suggesting Iran has supplied short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to help Moscow wage war in Ukraine and hinted at a "swift" response. The statement came after the Kremlin declined to directly refute the accusation and instead highlighted its cooperation with Tehran in "the most sensitive areas." "We are aware of the credible information provided by allies on the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia," EU spokesman Peter Stano said. "We are looking further into it with our member states and, if confirmed, this delivery would represent a substantive material escalation in Iran's support for Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine." Stano added that "the EU leaders' unanimous position has always been clear. The European Union will respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners, including with new and significant restrictive measures against Iran." Earlier the same day, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the Russian side had "seen this report." But he did not appear to refute it. "It is not every time that this kind of information is true," Peskov said. "Iran is our important partner, we are developing our trade and economic relations, we are developing our cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas, including the most sensitive areas." Click here to read... [30]

Iran’s President Pezeshkian heads to Iraq on first foreign trip

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has arrived in Iraq on his first state trip abroad, in a bid to boost ties amid tightening Western sanctions. Pezeshkian, a relative moderate who was elected in July, started his three-day visit as he met Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani on Sept 11. During the trip, the president and his delegation are due to sign a number of agreements and discuss the Gaza war and the situation in the Middle East with their Iraqi counterparts, Baghdad said. The Iranian president visited a monument to Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran‘s elite Quds Force – a part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – who was killed in a 2020 attack by the United States in Baghdad. High on Pezeshkian’s agenda will be Israel’s war on Gaza, which has drawn in Iran-backed armed groups around the region and complicated Iraq’s relations with the US. Expanding trade ties is also one of Pezeshkian’s top goals, said Iraqi political scientist Ali al-Baidar, noting that Iran needs “the Iraqi market for its exports, just as it needs Iraq’s energy imports”. Pezeshkian will also travel to the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, for talks with Kurdish officials, according to Iran’s official IRNA news agency. In March last year, Tehran signed a security agreement with the federal government in Baghdad after launching air raids against bases of Iranian Kurdish rebel groups in the autonomous region. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Africa CDC urges Western countries to boost funding for mpox response

The head of the African Union’s health agency has called on Western countries to learn from the COVID-19 pandemic and not abandon Africa amid an ongoing mpox outbreak. Dr Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said on Sept 12 that 107 new deaths and 3,160 new cases had been recorded in the past week, just a week after his agency and the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a continental response plan. “In one week, we lost 107 [people]. It’s too much. It’s not acceptable,” he said as he emphasised the need for stronger cross-border surveillance. Mpox was declared an international emergency in August by the WHO, concerned by a surge in cases of the new clade 1b strain in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the epicentre of the outbreak. The Africa CDC has said it is short of a $600m target to tackle the disease now present in 14 nations on the continent. Kaseya called on Western nations to help meet the funding goal “to show that they learned from COVID”. “We don’t want to come back again tomorrow to say, you again abandoned Africa,” he said during an online briefing. Some African Union member states have already contributed to the six-month response plan budget, a step that Kaseya lauded as showing ownership by the continent. Click here to read... [32]