Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 16 January - 22 January, 2023

Economic

Economic tsar Liu He vows ‘China is coming back’, will keep opening up and supporting private business

China will strive to retain and boost its appeal to foreign investors, as the country is ready to step back onto the world stage and intensify its global cooperation, Vice-Premier Liu He has vowed in Switzerland. The economic tsar also invited foreign companies to increase their investments in China, after saying in a speech on Jan 17 at the World Economic Forum that China will never return to the planned-economy model. Instead, he said, it will keep opening up and supporting the private sector. In an interview with the Hong Kong-headquartered Phoenix TV after his meeting with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Jan 18 in Zurich, the outgoing vice-premier said his trip to Switzerland was meant to help dispel concerns about China’s economic policies and changes in its Covid strategy. His comments also came after Jan 17’s announcement that China recorded one of its slowest economic growth figures in the past half-century, with a full-year growth rate of 3 per cent in 2022. Liu said his mission at the World Economic Forum was to convey China’s policies on opening up, reform and development following the 20th party congress that took place in October. Click here to read... [2]

Electricity consumption predicted to rise 6 percent in 2023, in line with GDP expansion projection

It is estimated that China's electricity consumption - a barometer of economic activity - will reach 9.15 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023 in normal climate conditions, up 6 percent year-on-year, a report issued by China Electricity Council showed on Jan 22, being fueled by a full-fledged economic recovery that drives up electricity demand. The growth rate is in line with the predictions of economists and international organizations on Chinese economy, with most anticipating a 5-6 percent GDP expansion in 2023 despite outside pressures, which would put the world's second-largest economy on track to become one of the fastest growing major economies this year. In terms of different industries, the recovery of catering and accommodation, transportation, and tourism will lead to increased electricity demand across the service sector this year, thanks to the optimization of anti-COVID response, according to the report which analyzes and predicts China's electricity supply-demand situation in 2023. Power consumption in the primary industry, mainly agricultural sector, is predicted to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2023, while that of the secondary industry will also experience a gradual rebound, the report said. In particular, the gradual restoring of China's property industry will prompt an electricity consumption jump in steel and construction materials, and accelerate production and investment in high-tech manufacturing, services and other fields. Click here to read... [3]

China’s Huawei looks to ports, factories to rebuild sales

As technicians in a distant control room watch on display screens, an automated crane at one of China’s busiest ports moves cargo containers from a Japanese freighter to self-driving trucks in a scene tech giant Huawei sees as its future after American sanctions crushed its smartphone brand. The backbone of the “smart terminal” at the Tianjin Port, east of Beijing, is a data network built by Huawei, which is reinventing itself as a supplier for self-driving cars, factories and other industries it hopes will be less vulnerable to Washington’s worsening feud with Beijing over technology and security. The ruling Communist Party is promoting automation in industries from manufacturing to taxis to keep China’s economy growing as the workforce ages and starts to shrink. Its managers say the “smart terminal,” part of Tianjin’s 200-square-kilometer port, allows 200 employees to move as much cargo as 800 used to. “We believe this solution in Tianjin is the world’s most advanced,” said Yue Kun, chief technology officer of Huawei’s business unit for ports. “We believe it can be applied to other ports.” Huawei Technologies Ltd., which makes smartphones and is the biggest global supplier of network gear for phone carriers, struggled after then-President Donald Trump cut off access to American processor chips and other technology in 2019 in a feud with Beijing about security. Click here to read... [4]

World Oil Demand Hit A 9-Month High In November

Solid demand in China, India, and Japan lifted global oil demand by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November to the highest level since February 2022, new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Jan 19. China’s oil demand rebounded by almost 1 million bpd in November compared to October, while Chinese crude oil imports surged to a 20-month high, according to the JODI data shared by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF). In China, oil demand rose by 985,000 bpd in November to a nine-month high, while crude oil imports rose by 1.22 million bpd to 11.41 million bpd. This was the highest volume of crude imports into China in 20 months, according to JODI data. Chinese fuel exports rose by 495,000 bpd to 1.61 million bpd, a 17-month high. Data from this week showed that China’s fuel exports jumped in December, with gasoline sales abroad matching an October 2020 record, following a huge export quota the authorities issued to refiners at the end of 2022. Going forward, analysts and industry professionals expect China’s oil demand to rebound in the coming months from a slump at the end of 2022, as China lifted its Covid restrictions after nearly three years. Click here to read... [5]

Federal Reserve Tells U.S. Banks To Assess Climate-Related Risks

The Federal Reserve has tasked the largest U.S. lenders to make an assessment of the risks they are vulnerable to in case of an extreme weather event caused by climate change. The U.S. central bank recently released information about a “pilot climate scenario analysis” that aims to find out what disruptions climate change and the energy transition itself could cause the business world, E&E News reports. As well as extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, scenarios that could affect top lenders’ performance also include protests against high-emission but highly profitable businesses in which banks have invested. The purpose of the exercise, as the Fed calls it, is dual: first, to gauge the banks’ ability to tackle literal, physical damage from, say a hurricane, on its real estate portfolio, and, second, to assess their ability to deal with the financial fallout of such an event that causes financial stress for their customers, compromising their ability to repay their loans. The lenders that need to submit an assessment of their climate change and transition risks include JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. They have until the end of July to complete their assessments and develop a transition scenario for their operations. Click here to read... [6]

Gov’t mismanagement, external pressures as Arab currencies crash

Heated discussions over inflation and currency devaluations have become commonplace in many Arab countries. The Iraqi dinar has lost 7 percent of its value since mid-November, leading to the sacking of the central bank governor on Jan 23. In September, the Tunisian dinar reached a record low versus the United States dollar, as the country’s president struggles to deal with an ongoing economic and political crisis. Meanwhile, the currencies of other countries, including Syria, Sudan, Lebanon and Egypt, were among the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2022. These devaluations, coupled with rising prices around the world, have contributed to sky-high levels of inflation. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, headline inflation was 21.3 percent in 2022, while core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, reached 24.5 percent. These numbers pale in comparison to Lebanon’s jaw-dropping triple-digit inflation over the past couple of years, according to the World Bank. Some people are blaming their governments for inflation. Governments, on the other hand, have tended to point the finger at external factors beyond their control, such as the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic and interest rate hikes in the US. Click here to read... [7]

Iraq Economy Reels as U.S. Moves Against Money Flows to Iran

Iraqis are blaming an unexpected culprit for a weakening currency that has caused the price of food and imported goods to rise: a little-noticed policy change by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed began enforcing tighter controls on international dollar transactions by commercial Iraqi banks in November in a move to curtail money laundering and the illegal siphoning of dollars to Iran and other heavily sanctioned Middle East countries, U.S. and Iraqi officials said. Iraqi banks had operated under less stringent rules since shortly after the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. But years of weak governments and crises—from the insurgency during the U.S. occupation to the Islamic State takeover of large portions of the country—led successive administrations to put off bringing Iraq’s banking system into compliance with global money-transfer practices until now, officials said. Since the procedures went into effect, 80% or more of Iraq’s daily dollar wire transfers, which previously totaled over $250 million some days, have been blocked because of insufficient information about the funds’ destinations or other errors, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials and official Iraqi government data. Click here to read... [8]

Israel's debt-to-GDP ratio sees sharpest decline in 35 years

Israel's public debt-to-GDP ratio dropped to 60.9 percent in 2022 from 68 percent in 2021, the Israeli Finance Ministry said Jan 18. The year-on-year decrease of 7.1 percentage points is the sharpest since 1987, when an annual decrease of about 20 percentage points was recorded in the ratio figure, according to data from Israel's central bank. However, the ratio remained above the pre-pandemic level of 58.8 percent recorded in 2019. The annual figures issued by Israel's Accountant-General Yali Rothenberg showed that the government's debt rate decreased to 59.2 percent of GDP in 2022, compared with 66.2 percent in 2021. The ministry attributed the debt ratio decline to economic growth at a rate of 6.3 percent, alongside a decrease of 7 billion shekels (2.07 billion U.S. dollars) in government debt. "The cumulative decrease in the last two years in the debt-to-GDP ratio is of great importance in preserving financial stability and fiscal flexibility," Rothenberg said. Click here to read... [9]

Kishida says Japan on 'brink' of social dysfunction as births fall

The low birthrate puts Japan "on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned Jan 23. "In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation's economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy," Kishida said. Kishida, who is contending with low approval ratings, was making a major policy speech on the opening day of a 150-day ordinary Diet session. He spoke about issues such as increased defense spending, diplomatic commitments to emerging countries and nurturing startups. His remarks on child-rearing support, one of the core elements in his 45-minute speech, came amid news that the country's new births last year fell below 800,000 for the first time on record. Japan's total population as of Jan. 1 was estimated at 124.77 million, down 0.43% from a year earlier -- 29% of them were 65 years old or over, while 11.6% were aged 0-14. Like in other Asian nations such as South Korea, fewer births means that Japan's labor force is likely to continue shrinking, putting pressure on a social security system that has to support a graying population. But the prime minister was short on specifics. Having earlier proposed three key platforms -- economic support, childcare services and working style reform -- Kishida said he would present an outline by June for a future doubling of the childcare budget. Click here to read... [10]

Keidanren urges members to raise wages as ‘social responsibility’

Japan’s most influential business group signaled it would push for substantial wage increases as demanded by the largest labor organization in the nation during a meeting in Tokyo on Jan. 23. During the annual “shunto” labor negotiations, Tomoko Yoshino, chairwoman of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation), pressed for sharp wage hikes in light of the soaring commodity prices over the past several months. “We should take this chance to finally emerge from a long darkness and create a turning point for both workers and employers to remake Japan’s future by joining forces,” she said at the meeting. In response, Masakazu Tokura, chairman of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation), struck a positive note. “We are urging our member companies to respond positively to wage increases as their social responsibility by maintaining and bolstering momentum for the move while paying close attention to price trends,” he said. Although this may be good news for employees of large corporations, workers at small and midsize companies, who account for 70 percent of Japan’s entire workforce, may not see substantial increases in their income. Most of the smaller companies do not have financial resources to raise salaries on a par with current inflation levels. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly urged businesses to raise wages to a level higher than the inflation rate. Click here to read... [11]

Japan's trade deficit in 2022 hits record high as imports surge

Japan reported a record annual trade deficit of 19.97 trillion yen ($155.9 billion) in 2022 as imports soared due to a weaker yen and higher costs of natural resources following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It marked the second straight year of red ink and surpassed the previous record of 12.8 trillion yen logged in 2014, according to preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry on Jan. 19. The value of imports to Japan greatly exceeded exports throughout 2022. Imports surged 39.2 percent from the previous year to 118.1 trillion yen, topping 100 trillion yen for the first time. It was the largest amount since 1979, when comparable data became available. The volume of imported crude oil rose 8.5 percent, while the value surged 91.5 percent in 2022. The volume of imported coal increased 0.2 percent, while the value soared 178.1 percent. Exports increased 18.2 percent to 98.1 trillion yen, also a record high. The value of automobile shipments increased 21.4 percent on the year, while that of steel exports rose 24.2 percent. The ministry also released data for December 2022 on the day. The trade deficit for the month stood at 1.4 trillion yen, the 17th straight month of red ink. Click here to read... [12]

Pakistan begins restoring power after 2nd recent grid breakdown

Pakistan's government began restoring power to millions of people on Jan 23 after a breakdown in the grid triggered the worst electricity outage in months and highlighted the weak infrastructure of the heavily indebted nation. The outage is the second major grid failure in three months, and adds to the blackouts that Pakistan's nearly 220 million people suffer on an almost-daily basis. Power was beginning to return in parts of the capital Islamabad and the southwestern province of Balochistan, said Dastgir. Pakistan's largest city and economic hub Karachi is likely to see electricity restored in the next three to four hours, a spokesperson for K-Electric, the southern city's power provider, said. Analysts and officials blame the power problems on an aging electricity network, which like much of the national infrastructure desperately needs an upgrade that the government says it can ill afford. The International Monetary Fund has bailed out Pakistan five times in the last two decades. Its latest bailout tranche, however, is stuck due to differences with the government over a program review that should have been completed in November. Pakistan has enough installed power capacity to meet demand, but it lacks resources to run its oil- and gas-powered plants. The sector is so heavily in debt that it cannot afford to invest in infrastructure and power lines. Click here to read... [13]

U.S. Economy Slows, but Europe’s Picks Up, Raising Hopes World Will Avoid Recession

Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup. The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Jan 24, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand. Combined, the surveys point to a global economy that looks likely to slow this year but could avoid recession. The receding threat of energy shortages in Europe, a still-growing U.S. economy, and China’s postpandemic reopening could offset the effect of higher prices and interest rates and keep the world from a steep downturn. In the U.S., the economy continues to expand late last year, despite the Federal Reserve’s string of interest-rate increases designed to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. Higher rates have weighed heavily on certain sectors and could be causing households to pull back. Home sales fell almost 18% in 2022 from the previous year. Retail sales were down 1.1% in December and the labor market, while still vibrant, is starting to show cracks. Employers have shed temporary workers for five straight months. Click here to read... [14]

Number of Western firms which left Russia revealed

Less than 9% of companies from the EU and G7 countries that owned subsidiaries in Russia have left the country since the introduction of sanctions last year, research by economists from Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen has found. The study, based on information from OBRIS, a global database containing information on millions of companies, showed that 36,000 international companies, including 3,444 subsidiaries of foreign entities, were operating in Russia as of April 2022, with a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G7 companies. The researchers then checked how many of these companies had given up their stakes or sold their branches and concluded that of the 1,404 companies, only 120 (8.5%) did so. The authors of the report noted that they only focused on companies that withdrew their equity stakes and did not look at other commercial ties, such as exports, licensing, and franchising. They found that at the end of November 2022 “8.5% of EU and G7 companies had divested at least one of their Russian subsidiaries.” Nevertheless, a number of prominent international companies have stopped working in Russia due to sanctions pressure. The list includes American, European and Japanese automakers (Ford, Renault, Toyota), energy majors (ExxonMobil, Shell), banks (Deutsche Bank, Sociеtе Gеnеral, Citi), consulting firms (McKinsey, KPMG), retailers (IKEA), restaurant and hotel chains (McDonaldʼs, Starbucks, Marriott), clothing brands (H&M, Nike), among others. Click here to read... [15]

Ukraine conflict to cost Germany 4.5% of GDP – DW

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine will cost Europe’s largest economy €175 billion ($190 billion) this year, which equates to €2,000 per inhabitant, Deutsche Welle reported on Jan 23, citing a report by the Institute of German Economics (IW). Authors of the study compared the current situation to an imaginary scenario in which there was no military operation in Ukraine or problems related to it, such as skyrocketing energy prices, spiraling inflation and supply disruptions. They calculated that the real loss to the German economy from the conflict in Ukraine will be as high as 4.5% of the GDP next year. The study pointed out that the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine coincided with an already difficult economic situation in Germany. The economists pointed out that the country’s federal development bank KfW had already warned of a threat to prosperity in Germany due to a lack of qualified personnel and insufficient productivity growth. In 2020, Germany recorded a loss of about €175 billion, another €125 billion in 2021, and almost €120 billion in 2022. The expected €175 billion in losses this year brings the total damage to the country’s economy between 2020 and 2023 amid Covid-19 and the conflict in Ukraine to €595 billion, the report said. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China Politburo retiree poised to become next vice president: report

Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng is reportedly set to become vice president after being left out of the Communist Party's top decision-making body last fall, suggesting that President Xi Jinping is not using the role as a steppingstone for a potential future leader. Han is expected to be named to the post at the National People's Congress opening March 5, replacing Wang Qishan, according to the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily newspaper. The 68-year-old vice premier, who had been a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, was not included in the new lineup at last October's twice-a-decade Communist Party congress after reaching the unofficial retirement age for top officials. Han was selected as vice president because of Xi's trust in him, according to Sing Tao. Xi and his predecessor, Hu Jintao, both spent time in the role to gain experience in foreign policy and elsewhere before assuming leadership. Wang, however, was named vice president in March 2018 after retiring from the Politburo Standing Committee at the previous year's party congress. Repeating this pattern with Han signals that Xi is preparing for a long stint at the top. Click here to read... [17]

Beijing fills satellite gaps for close eye on disputed South China Sea

Chinese satellite monitoring of the disputed islands and waters in the South and East China seas stepped up in 2022, according to the latest blue book from the main contractor to China’s space programme. The blue book – an annual snapshot of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) activities – said remote sensing was enhanced of the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, as well as the South China Sea’s Scarborough Shoal, Macclesfield Bank, the Paracels and Spratly Islands, and the surrounding waters. “China has formed the capability of remotely sensing all the seas and islands under administration,” said the book, which was published on Jan 18. The enhanced satellite programme provides important data for the administration and management of the waters and islands, as well as “islands of special purposes” – which China uses as territorial sea bases – the book said. The CASC also reported that its series of satellites now forms a continuous high-frequency observation capability with global coverage. This has been effectively applied in sea and island management, as well as investigation and supervision of marine natural resources, it said. Click here to read... [18]

U.S. and Philippines eye first 2-plus-2 meeting in 7 years by spring

The U.S. and the Philippines are discussing holding a two-plus-two meeting of top diplomatic and defense officials by spring, the first between the allies in seven years, Nikkei has learned. Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez said Jan 13 that the two sides are looking toward a meeting in March. Another source said it will likely take place by spring. A two-plus-two meeting would be emblematic of the recent progress made toward mending the bilateral relationship. After the last such talks in January 2016, Manila, under previous President Rodrigo Duterte, distanced itself from Washington until the waning days of his six-year tenure. Defense cooperation is poised to ramp up as the U.S. seeks the Philippines' support in its integrated deterrence strategy aimed at China. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to visit Manila in the coming weeks. Washington and Manila are in talks to conclude negotiations on bilateral defense guidelines. The document, which the allies agreed to draw up in November 2021, will set out their respective roles and missions in the event of a conflict. "You'll see a greater focus on China," said a source familiar with the matter. The source said one key will be dealing with China's "gray zone" strategy -- its use of militias and private ships to strengthen its control in the South China Sea while avoiding direct military conflict. Click here to read... [19]

South Korea envoy in Iran summoned over Yoon’s ‘enemy’ remarks--media

Iran’s foreign ministry summoned South Korea’s ambassador to protest against South Koran President Yoon Suk-yeol’s comment that the Islamic republic is the enemy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iranian state media reported. Yoon, speaking with South Korean troops stationed in Abu Dhabi early this week, said South Korea and the UAE are under “very similar" circumstances, each facing North Korea and Iran as “the enemy, biggest threat.” His remarks prompted a rare spat between Seoul and Tehran, at a time when relations have already been testy over frozen Iranian funds in South Korea and suspected arms dealings between Iran and North Korea. Iran’s deputy foreign minister on legal affairs, Reza Najafi, summoned Yun Kang-hyeon, the South Korean ambassador on Jan 18 to protest against Yoon’s “interventionist remarks,” the official IRNA news agency said. Najafi “pointed to the deep-rooted and friendly relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran with most of the Persian Gulf countries,” IRNA said, describing Yoon’s comment as “interfering" and “undermining peace and stability in the region.” Yoon’s office said his comment was meant to encourage the soldiers. Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Jan 17 it has offered explanations to Tehran and its commitment to developing bilateral ties remains unchanged. Click here to read... [20]

South Korea Leader Dials Back Comments on Developing Nuclear Weapons

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol dialed back recent remarks that Seoul could develop its own nuclear weapons, saying in an interview that his focus is on working closely with the U.S. on North Korean proliferation. Noting that South Korea, a nonnuclear nation, is part of the decades-old Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at curbing nuclear arms, Mr. Yoon said: “I can assure you that the Republic of Korea’s realistic and rational option is to fully respect the NPT regime…I’m fully confident about the U.S.’s extended deterrence.” Mr. Yoon said earlier this month after a meeting with defense officials that South Korea might develop its own nuclear weapons if North Korea doesn’t halt its weapons program. That prospect has long been opposed by U.S. officials and would inflame already strained relations with North Korea, though polls show it is favored by a majority of South Koreans. Mr. Yoon emphasized his country’s close focus with the U.S. and Japan on contingencies and planning for the U.S. nuclear umbrella as North Korea expands its arsenal, which includes the development of drones and short-range ballistic missiles widely seen as a direct threat to South Korea. “We are preparing a stronger joint planning and joint execution in operating the U.S. nuclear assets on the Korean Peninsula,” he told The Wall Street Journal in Davos, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. Click here to read... [21]

Japan eyes meet between Kishida, Zelenskyy in Kyiv next month

The Japanese government is working out whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida can visit Kyiv in late February, around the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Japan aims to arrange a summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but only after fully assessing the situation on the ground and factoring in the schedule of the ordinary Diet session, which began on Jan. 23. “Nothing concrete has been decided,” Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said on a Fuji Television Network Inc. news program on Jan. 22. But he also said the government is considering having Kishida visit in light of the Group of Seven summit Japan will host in Hiroshima in May. “One of the major issues on the G-7 summit agenda will surely be Ukraine,” he said. “We have to give it thorough consideration.” The government is tentatively considering having Kishida visit around Feb. 24, according to several officials at the prime minister’s office. It wants to arrange a short visit, such as a weekend stay, since Diet lawmakers will be discussing the proposed budget for the coming fiscal year. The government could push the schedule back depending on how the war is going and how Diet deliberations are proceeding. Japan is also considering calling for online talks between G-7 leaders and Zelenskyy, which would coincide with the one-year anniversary. Click here to read... [22]

More sanctions as Iran and EU clash over IRGC ‘terror’ label

The European Union will step up sanctions targeting Iranian officials deemed to be involved in an ongoing crackdown against anti-government protesters in the country, but will not go as far as declaring Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist” organisation until further legal processes are complete. “Ministers adopted a new package of sanctions against Iran, targeting those driving the repression,” the EU Presidency said in a tweet on Jan 23. “The EU strongly condemns the brutal and disproportionate use of force by the Iranian authorities against peaceful protesters.” The decision saw 37 additional Iranian officials and entities placed on the sanctions list. However, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, had earlier told reporters that listing the IRGC could not happen until the designation had gone through a legal process first. “It is something that cannot be decided without a court, a court decision first. You cannot say I consider you a terrorist because I don’t like you,” Borrell said. In Iran, the government was adamant that any attempts to proscribe the IRGC were illegitimate. “Based on the United Nations Charter and international law, blacklisting this state entity would constitute a clear violation of the Charter,” Nasser Kanani, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, said, touting the IRGC as an organisation that significantly contributes to the security of Iran and the region. Click here to read... [23]

Israel, U.S. discuss possible Israeli diplomatic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he met visiting U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Jan 19 and explored ways to forge official ties with Saudi Arabia. The two discussed "the next steps to deepen the Abraham Accords and expand the circle of peace, with emphasis on a breakthrough regarding Saudi Arabia," Netanyahu's office said in a statement. The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization deals signed in 2020 in which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco agreed to establish official ties with Israel, breaking the country's relative isolation in the Middle East. Upon his return to office last December, Netanyahu declared that he wish to form diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, a move that he hopes will "bring an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict." Netanyahu and Sullivan also discussed "joint efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear program and Iran's actions in the region," the office said. Sullivan is the most senior U.S. official to visit Israel since Netanyahu's new extreme-right government was inaugurated last December. The swearing-in of this coalition government, which includes ministers who advocate the annexation of the occupied West Bank and voice anti-Arab rhetoric, has caused discontent in the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. Click here to read... [24]

Jordan’s King Abdullah meets Netanyahu over Al-Aqsa tensions

Jordan’s King Abdullah on Jan 24 held a meeting with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the capital Amman, a statement by Jordan’s Royal Hashemite Court said, amid heightened diplomatic tensions over the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem. Jan 24’s meeting was attended by an Israeli delegation as well as several Jordanian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. Amman had summoned the Israeli ambassador after its envoy Ghassan Majali was stopped from entering the mosque on January 17. Jordan’s ambassador’s visit to the mosque came after extreme right-wing Israeli Minister for National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir stormed the mosque compound – Islam’s third holiest site – drawing condemnation from the Muslim world. The Palestinians dubbed it “an unprecedented provocation”. The Jordan-run Jerusalem Waqf is the exclusive authority supervising holy sites in Jerusalem, including Al-Aqsa Mosque. According to the statement, King Abdullah “stressed the importance of respecting the historical and legal status quo in Al Aqsa Mosque/Al Haram Al Sharif.” Jews are banned from praying at the site; however, some far-right Israelis have been demanding a change to the religious status quo and want to be permitted to pray at the Al-Aqsa compound. Click here to read... [25]

Russian warship to join drills with China, South Africa navies

A Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons will take part in exercises with the Chinese and South African navies in February, according to Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency. The report on Jan 23 was the first official mention of the participation by the Russian frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov. The frigate is armed with Zircon missiles, which fly at nine times the speed of sound and have a range of more than 1,000km (620 miles). The missiles form the centrepiece of Russia’s hypersonic arsenal, along with the Avangard glide vehicle that entered combat duty in 2019. “‘Admiral Gorshkov’ … will go to the logistic support point in Syria’s Tartus, and then take part in joint naval exercises with the Chinese and South African navies,” TASS said in its report, citing an unidentified defence source. The South African National Defence Force has said the drills will run from February 17-26 near the port cities of Durban and Richards Bay on South Africa’s east coast. It said on Jan 19 that the joint exercise aims “to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China”. The exercise will be the second involving the three countries in South Africa, after a drill in 2019, the defence force added. Click here to read... [26]

Türkiye outlines ‘complications’ in potential Ukraine-Russia talks

The diplomatic process to settle the Ukraine conflict has become more complicated despite Moscow and Kiev having initially made headway, Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Jan 19. Speaking during his visit to Washington, DC, where he met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Cavusoglu stated that while Ankara had been doing its best to put an end to hostilities, “it is not entirely in our hands to stop the war.” The minister noted that, though Russia and Ukraine had covered “quite a distance in the beginning, and the parties came closer to at least a ceasefire,” later the situation “had evolved, unfortunately.” Cavusoglu stated that the conditions of the Ukraine conflict “have changed.” “It has become more complex and has different dimensions. Unfortunately, many more different areas to negotiate have emerged,” he added. The diplomat reiterated that Ankara continues its mediation efforts as part of the UN- and Türkiye-brokered grain deal, which aims to unlock agricultural exports via the Black Sea from Russia and Ukraine. He added that the same applies to prisoner swaps between Moscow and Kiev, as well as mitigating risks at the nuclear power plant in Russia’s Zaporozhye Region. The US and Russia are also maintaining contacts in order to avoid the use of nuclear weapons, Cavusoglu noted. Click here to read... [27]

Burkina Faso Tells French Troops to Leave

French troops who have been fighting Islamist militants in Burkina Faso will have to leave the West African nation, the country’s communications minister said Jan 23, dealing another blow to Europe’s presence in a region where Russia’s influence is growing. The decision by the government in Ouagadougou to abandon its military alliance with its former colonial power comes five months after France completed its withdrawal from neighboring Mali, which in 2021 hired the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group to support its war against jihadists affiliated with al Qaeda and Islamic State. Speaking on Burkina Faso’s state broadcaster RTB, Communication Minister Rimtalba Ouedraogo said the country’s armed forces would lead the fight against extremists themselves and made no mention of Russian support. “It’s the Burkinabe themselves who will make the sacrifice to liberate our territory,” Mr. Ouedraogo said. France currently has around 400 troops stationed in Burkina Faso. But the government of Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who came to power in a September coup, has been pursuing closer ties with Russia. In December, Burkina Faso’s Prime Minister, Apollinaire Kyélem de Tambèla, traveled to Moscow on what he said was a private visit to discuss how the two countries could cooperate. “We want Russia to be an ally in the fight against terrorism, like all our partners,” Mr. Kyélem de Tambèla said in an interview with Russian broadcaster RT. Click here to read... [28]

Chris Hipkins confirmed as next New Zealand leader, picks deputy

Chris Hipkins was confirmed Jan 22 as New Zealand's next prime minister and he chose Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage has risen to that rank. Hipkins got the unanimous support of lawmakers from his Labour Party after he was the only candidate to enter the contest to replace Jacinda Ardern, who shocked the nation Jan 19 when she announced she was resigning after more than five years as leader. Hipkins will be officially sworn in to his new role on Jan 25. He will have less than nine months before contesting a tough general election, with opinion polls indicating his party is trailing its conservative opposition. The lack of other candidates for leader indicated that party lawmakers had rallied behind Hipkins to avoid a drawn-out contest and any sign of disunity following Ardern's departure. In setting out his priorities, Hipkins said he knew many families were struggling due to the "pandemic of inflation" and that the economy would be central to his government's thinking. When asked if he would take on the same transformational approach to government that Ardern had promised after first winning the top job, Hipkins indicated he wanted to get back to basics. Click here to read... [29]

France’s Macron Seeks Bigger Military, Leaner Pension System

French President Emmanuel Macron‘s pledge to increase military spending, a day after a million people hit the streets to protest his planned pension overhaul, illustrates the test facing European welfare systems as the costs of war in Ukraine pile up. On Jan 20, Mr. Macron vowed to raise military spending to 400 billion euros, equivalent to $433 billion, between 2024 and 2030, up from €295 billion between 2019 and 2025. France currently spends around 1.9% of its gross domestic product on defense, just shy of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s target of 2%. “We must be ready for more brutal and numerous wars,” Mr. Macron said in an address to the country’s military brass Jan 20. One way to find fiscal slack for a military buildup is to cut government expenditure on a national pension system that accounted for 13.8% of France’s economic output in 2021. Mr. Macron’s push to raise the legal retirement age to 64 from 62—a measure that brought protesters onto city streets en masse Jan 19—is at the heart of the government’s efforts to maintain fiscal discipline as military spending surges. Leaders across Europe face a similar dilemma: They are under pressure at home to maintain decades of hefty spending on welfare programs that are a cornerstone of European life while also adapting to the demands of a geopolitical landscape reshaped by war. Click here to read... [30]

U.S. Urges Azerbaijan To End Blockade At Lachin Corridor

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to reopen Nagorno-Karabakh's land link with Armenia, warning that a blockade of the corridor could undermine peace efforts between the two countries. Blinken spoke by telephone with Aliyev "to urge an immediate reopening of the Lachin Corridor to commercial traffic," State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement on January 23. "He underscored that the risk of a humanitarian crisis in the Lachin Corridor undermined prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan," the statement added. Blinken last week also spoke with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and voiced "deep concern for the worsening humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh" due to the blockage of the corridor. Government-backed Azerbaijani protesters identifying themselves as environmentalists have blocked a section of the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia since December 12 and are demanding that Baku be allowed to inspect "illegal" ore mines in Karabakh. Some activists have also called for the Russian peacekeepers to be replaced with an international force. The Azerbaijani side insists that the road is open for humanitarian cargo, emergency services, and peacekeepers. Click here to read... [31]

Health

COVID disrupts measles and other vaccinations in Asia, elsewhere

Many young children in Asia and elsewhere are missing out on routine vaccinations to protect them from measles and other diseases as their countries battle COVID-19 infections. In 2021, the rates of vaccination against measles, polio and other infectious diseases among 1-year-olds all fell for a second year in a row after posting their first declines in about 20 years in 2020, according to Our World in Data, a statistics website run by the University of Oxford and other entities. Medical institutions in many countries diverted their resources to fight the pandemic, while parents avoided hospital visits because of restrictions on outings. Mumbai, India's commercial capital, has seen a sharp rise in the number of measles patients since last autumn. With more than 500 people stricken with the disease by December, local media called it an "outbreak." In the state of Maharashtra, where the city is located, at least 24 people have died of the illness so far. Measles was widespread in 23 countries as of November, according to the World Health Organization. Malawi, a country in southeastern Africa, reported the first case of poliovirus in the wild in 30 years after an infection left a 3-year-old girl paralyzed. Another polio case was discovered in neighboring Mozambique soon after. Measles and other infectious diseases, including polio, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, are called vaccine-preventable diseases because effective vaccines exist against them. Click here to read... [32]

China races to make COVID drugs as Xi fears rural outbreaks

Chinese drugmakers rushed to make anti-fever medicines and other treatments for COVID-19 on Jan 19, after President Xi Jinping said he was worried about an influx of holiday travelers to rural areas ill-equipped to deal with sudden outbreaks. Xi’s comments come just over a month after his government abruptly axed his strict “zero-COVID” controls that had largely shielded China’s 1.4 billion people from the disease for three years but sparked widespread protests in late November. As travel ramps up during the busy Lunar New Year holiday season, as many as 36,000 people could die each day from the disease, according to the latest forecasts from UK-based health data firm Airfinity. China said Jan 14 that nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospitals between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12--a roughly ten-fold increase from previous disclosures. However, that number excludes those who die at home, and some doctors in China have said they are discouraged from putting COVID on death certificates. Health experts say China’s official figures likely do not reflect the true toll of the virus. “Based on the reports of hospitals being overwhelmed and long queues outside funeral homes, we might estimate that a larger number of COVID deaths have occurred so far, maybe more than 600,000 rather than just 60,000,” said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University. Click here to read... [33]