Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 28 November - 04 December, 2022

Economic

Six taikonauts of two missions in historic gathering in China Space Station, give country the largest population in space

Marking a first in China's aerospace history, taikonauts of two manned spaceflight missions made their victorious gathering in the China Space Station early on Nov 30 morning. With six taikonatus in orbit, China has surpassed the US and Russia in having the largest population in space. Carrying three taikonauts, the Shenzhou-15 manned spacecraft launched on Nov 29 night, conducted a fast automated rendezvous and docked with the China Space Station at the Tianhe core module front port at 5:42 am Nov 30. The six taikonauts of the two missions then took a historic group picture to commemorate their space gathering in the Tianhe core module. Next, the two crews will execute the China Space Station's first direct handover in orbit, and they will live and work together in the space station for about five days. Also marking a first in China's aerospace history, the space station has achieved a mega combination of six parts - three permanent modules and three spacecraft. The total mass of the combination has come close to 100 tons, which is the largest structure of the China Space Station combination to date, the Global Times learned from the state-owned aerospace giant and space station project contractor the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp (CASC).
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EU agrees on $60 Russian oil price cap after holdout Poland backs deal

The European Union on Dec 02 agreed on a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude, after holdout Poland gave its support, paving the way for formal approval over the weekend. Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price. It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine. Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Dec 02 told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate. The price cap, an idea of the Group of Seven nations, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5. A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally greenlight the deal, following Poland's approval. Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Dec 04. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.
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Russia Quietly Amasses 'Shadow Fleet' Of Tankers To Sidestep Western Restrictions

In an effort to dull the effect of international restrictions on its oil sales, Russia has discretely assembled a "shadow fleet" of more than 100 tankers, according to shipping brokers and industry analysts who spoke to the Financial Times. The largely anonymous tanker purchases can be tracked by the big increase in unnamed or new buyers appearing in registries. The vessels are generally 12-15 years old and would be expected to be scrapped in the next few years, said Anoop Singh, head of tanker research at Braemar. “We’ve seen quite a number of sales to unnamed buyers in recent months, and a few weeks after the sale many of these tankers pop up in Russia to take their first load of crude,” Craig Kennedy at Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies told the Times. The report comes as new Ukraine War-inspired Russian oil restrictions are poised to take effect. On Dec 05, a long-planned EU ban on seaborne oil imports from Russia will take effect. In mid-February, the import ban will extend to refined Russian products. This week, the G-7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.) and the EU agreed to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel. The cap will be subject to adjustments every two months, starting in mid-January.
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U.S. LNG Is Booming, But Who Supplies The Gas?

This year, the United States became the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter as deliveries to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia surged. In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia. As energy analysts RBN Energy notes, the first wave of LNG export expansion has mostly gone smoothly thanks to fast-rising natural gas supplies in the Lower 48 and a slew of pipeline reversals and expansions that allowed low-cost Marcellus-Utica gas supplies to reach Gulf Coast markets. But with LNG demand already high and set to grow at a frenetic pace, the big question becomes how quickly can the United States ramp up production to meet future demand? RBN notes that the Appalachia was, by far, the biggest contributor to U.S. natural gas growth over the last decade. Unfortunately, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast. Either way, it’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet those targets because takeaway constraints including limited pipeline capacity are seen as the biggest hurdle to growth of the sector despite the country being home to the world’s largest backlog of near-shovel-ready LNG projects.
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Entire regions saw water extremes in 2021

All regions of the world saw water extremes in 2021 - both floods and droughts - and billions of people had insufficient freshwater, the United Nations said on Nov 29. Large areas of the planet recorded drier than normal conditions in 2021, the UN's World Meteorological Organization said in its first annual State of Global Water Resources report. The report assesses the effects of changes in the climate, environment and society on the Earth's freshwater resources - limited supplies that are under growing demand - so they can be managed better. "The impacts of climate change are often felt through water - more intense and frequent droughts, more extreme flooding, more erratic seasonal rainfall and accelerated melting of glaciers - with cascading effects on economies, ecosystems and all aspects of our daily lives," said WMO head Petteri Taalas. "And yet there is insufficient understanding of changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of freshwater resources." Some 3.6 billion people face inadequate access to freshwater at least one month per year. That is forecast to rise to more than 5 billion by 2050, the report said. Between 2001 and 2018, 74 percent of all natural disasters were water-related, according to UN studies. In 2021, all regions saw devastating water extremes, the report said.
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Chinese cash-strapped developers get access to refinancing

China's securities regulator announced on Nov 28 the resumption of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by real estate developers and refinancing by the listed developers, among newly announced five measures that take effect immediately, in an attempt to invigorate the slumped property sector. The fresh move, adding to a flurry of recent government actions to stabilize the housing market and the economy at large, is meant to let listed developers use the capital market to ease their funding woes, market observers said. It could signal a turn for the better in the housing market and overall economic activity. In a late-night statement, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said that stable and healthy development of the country's housing sector are closely related to financial market stability and economic growth. The securities regulator vowed to support the implementation of plans to improve premium property developers' balance sheets, and help the housing market to revive dormant assets, prevent financial risks, and steadying macroeconomic fundamentals. The CSRC outlined five specific measures that apply to the housing market, effective immediately. The announcement was a follow-up to a pro-housing policy address delivered by CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman at the Financial Street Forum 2022 in Beijing last week.
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EU pushes ahead with WTO cases against China over Lithuania coercion and hi-tech licences

The European Union is to push on to the panel stage of two World Trade Organization suits against China, after failing to resolve the issues during bilateral talks. The first case is a high-profile spat with China over alleged economic coercion of Lithuania, whose exporters found themselves frozen from the Chinese market late last year. In the second dispute, the EU claims China is using domestic courts to undermine intellectual property laws, thereby allowing Huawei Technologies, Xiaomi and other telecoms giants to secure cut-price technology licences. “Our preference was to solve these two significant and systemic cases in a consultation process and we have invested a considerable amount of time in doing so. However, this was to no avail. We are therefore left with no choice but to request the establishment of these WTO panels,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s Commissioner for Trade. The Lithuania case centres on an alleged unofficial trade embargo following the opening of a controversially named Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory, and was infuriated by what it claimed was a breach of its sovereignty. The EU insists that the office is consistent with its own one China policy.
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Chinese yuan playing ‘complementary’ role in interbank settlement, but CIPS won’t rival Swift, says global central bank boss

As the yuan is now the world’s fifth most used currency for payments by value, the Chinese central bank clearing system is playing an important complementary role in the global payment system, according to the boss of the global central bank. However, China’s clearing and settlement service, Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), is no substitute for the global payment system Swift, Agustin Carstens, general manager of Bank of International Settlements (BIS), told the Post in an exclusive interview on Dec 06. “In this space, it is not probably adequate to think about substitutes,” Carstens said. “It is not a race. Swift covers some forms of payments initiated by different types of intermediaries, while other systems could cover others. The important thing here is the complementarity of the different payment systems. “There are many needs among societies, and we need to let the different solutions flourish.” As part of its effort to promote the internationalisation of the yuan, China’s central bank launched CIPS in 2015. It allows global banks to clear cross-border yuan transactions directly onshore, instead of through clearing banks in offshore yuan hubs. CIPS processed 80 trillion yuan (US$11.44 trillion) in 2021. The yuan now has a 2.13 per cent of the market share in global payments by value as of October, according to Swift.
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US lawmakers ease proposed curbs on government use of Chinese chips amid corporate pushback

US senators have scaled back a proposal that placed new curbs on the use of Chinese-made chips by the US government and its contractors, according to a recent draft seen by Reuters, amid pushback from trade groups like the US Chamber of Commerce. The move is the latest example of industry’s efforts to weaken proposals aimed at crimping China’s burgeoning tech sector, by pointing out how such measures will raise costs. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer and John Cornyn, a prominent Republican China hawk, unveiled a measure in September that would have required US federal agencies and their contractors to stop using chips manufactured at China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), as well as products made by Chinese memory chip leaders Yangtze Memory Technologies Co (YMTC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). The text of a new version of the measure, dated December 1, no longer forbids contractors from “using” the targeted chips and pushes the compliance deadline back to five years from the immediate or two-year implementation deadlines included in the first version. “This does not clearly prohibit contractors from themselves using covered semiconductor products,” said Robyn Burrows, a lawyer at Blank Rome specialising in federal contracting, when asked to read excerpts of the new draft.
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Germany struggles to get China parts to replenish ammo stockpile

The supply of military aid to Ukraine is depleting Germany's stockpiles of ammunition -- an issue that may be exacerbated by the slowdown of component imports from China. German ammunition makers at a recent defense symposium near Munich flagged that the lead time for orders of cotton linters from China -- a key component for propelling charges for both small guns and artillery -- has tripled to up to nine months, German-language daily Die Welt reported. While cotton linters are a commodity material produced and traded across the globe, the report cited unnamed industry sources saying that all European ammunition manufacturers rely on China for them. The massive bottlenecks in raw material supply "concern especially ammunition and special steels," Wolfgang Hellmich, the defense affairs speaker for the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) in parliament, told Nikkei Asia, when asked whether there are supply bottlenecks for China-sourced materials for military equipment. On Nov. 28, the German government held an ammunition roundtable with arms-makers, but concrete results were not publicized. "[At the ammunition roundtable], it was discussed how the ammunition bottlenecks can quickly be reduced, and all sides are working at full steam for solutions to prevent serious inventory gaps," he added. The German defense ministry has not replied to an inquiry for this article as of press time.
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The Twitter Censorship Files

Elon Musk’s release of internal emails relating to Twitter’s 2020 censorship is news by any definition, even if the mainstream media dismiss it. There will be many threads to unspool as more is released, but a couple of points are already worth making. The first is that Mr. Musk would do the country a favor by releasing the documents all at once for everyone to inspect. So far he’s dribbled them out piecemeal through journalist Matt Taibbi’s Twitter feed, which makes it easier for the media to claim they can’t report on documents because they can’t independently confirm them. A second point is a huzzah for Rep. Ro Khanna, the California progressive Democrat, who warned Twitter in 2020 about the free-speech implications and political backlash of censoring the New York Post story about Hunter Biden’s laptop. That was good advice, even if Twitter didn’t take it. A third point is the confirmation of the central role that former spies played in October 2020 in framing the Hunter Biden story in a way that made it easier for Twitter and Facebook to justify their censorship. Recall that former Democratic intelligence officials James Clapper and John Brennan led the spooks in issuing a public statement suggesting that the laptop may have been hacked and its content was Russian disinformation.
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Putin Pushes To Establish A “Natural Gas Union” In Central Asia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed creating a "gas union" with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to establish a mechanism to ship natural gas between the three countries and to other nations, including China. A day after Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev said he had talks with Putin in Moscow on the issue, Russian Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on November 29 that the proposal was being discussed between the three countries because there was a "need for synchronization" since they all sell natural gas. The first stage of Putin's proposal envisages "the creation of a coordination mechanism" for the plan, Peskov said. "The issue likely will have to be discussed with a legal entity to establish cooperation between the three nations and to secure the development of infrastructure for outer markets," Peskov said. Toqaev's spokesman Ruslan Zheldibai wrote on Facebook on November 29 that the Kazakh and Russian presidents had discussed how "to coordinate joint actions for the transportation of Russian gas through the territories of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan." "Presidents Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev and Vladimir Putin said they think it is necessary to hold detailed talks with the participation of experts to find a rational solution to the issue that considers the interests of all involved sides," Zheldibai wrote. Peskov noted that, since Kazakhstan's northern regions depend on natural gas transported from Siberia in Russia, it would be economically advantageous to increase Russian gas supplies instead of following through on a Kazakh government plan to build a new pipeline to secure Kazakh gas deliveries to the region.
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Countries split on plastics treaty focus as UN talks close

The first round of negotiations on a global plastics treaty ended on Dec 02 with an agreement to end plastic pollution but a split on whether goals and efforts should be global and mandatory, or voluntary and country-led. More than 2,000 delegates from 160 countries, meeting in Uruguay in the first of a planned five sessions of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC), aim to craft the first legally binding agreement on plastic pollution by the end of 2024. The negotiations in the coastal city of Punta del Este pitted a "High Ambition Coalition", including European Union members, against countries including the United States and Saudi Arabia, which have the world's top plastic and petrochemical companies. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, saying plastics were "fossil fuels in another form", urged nations to crack down on pollution and production. "I call on countries to look beyond waste and turn off the tap on plastic," he said on Twitter. United Nations members agreed in March to create the treaty to deal with the scourge of plastic waste but they differ on major issues, including whether to limit plastic production, phase out types of plastics and harmonize global rules. The High Ambition Coalition of over 40 countries, including EU members, Switzerland, host Uruguay and Ghana, wants the treaty to be based on mandatory global measures, including curbs on production.
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Western airlines need to return to Russian airspace – IATA

Western airlines should resume flights over Russia, because the skies over Europe are becoming increasingly crowded, the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Dec 06. “We should be looking to reopen Russian airspace to have it accessible to all airlines to transit through the traditional Siberian overflights, so that Europe can access Asia in the most efficient way possible,” Willie Walsh told a press briefing in Geneva. “If you look at the closure of Ukrainian airspace, Russian airspace and other parts of the world, the amount of traffic that’s flowing through Europe has increased over certain routes and that’s not sustainable,” he added. Russian airspace, spanning 11 time zones and providing the shortest route from Europe to Asia, was closed to Western airlines in response to sanctions imposed shortly after the start of the Ukraine conflict in February. Middle Eastern and Chinese airlines have continued to fly over Russia, but flights from China have been limited due to Beijing’s strict Covid-19 restrictions. However, Walsh expects China to ease their policies over the coming year, which would allow more people to travel. This, in turn, would give Chinese airlines an advantage over European rivals, whose flights are currently plagued by delays as they avoid Russian airspace.
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UK no longer a foreign aid ‘superpower’ – minister

The UK is no longer a “development superpower,” the British minister responsible for overseas aid has told a parliamentary committee. Andrew Mitchell said “draconian” budget cuts to bilateral programs were necessary because funding had been diverted to meet the needs of refugees arriving in Britain from countries like Ukraine and Afghanistan. He made the remarks before members of the UK Parliament’s International Development Committee on Dec 06. Mitchell was appointed minister of state for aid issues in the Foreign Office by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in October, effectively returning to the same office he held a decade ago. “Let us not beat about the bush. We are not a development superpower at the moment and that is something that is bemoaned around the world,” Mitchell told his fellow lawmakers. He contrasted the scarcity of funding with the resources that were available during premierships of Tony Blair and David Cameron. “If we are going to get that back, we are going to have to make some structural changes in the department,” he added. Mitchell said he had to reduce the budget for bilateral programs by some 30% for the rest of the financial year. This was partially due to the Home Office drawing on his department’s funds to cover the cost of hosting an increasing number of refugees from countries including Syria, Afghanistan and Ukraine.
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Strategic

Ukraine operation could take a long time – Putin

The military operation in Ukraine may go on for a while, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Dec 07, in a meeting with the Council for Civil Society and Human Rights. Addressing a question about the duration of hostilities that escalated in February, Putin said that achieving all the objectives will take time, but pointed to, what he called, several major gains already won. “Of course, this might be a lengthy process,” Putin said, insisting that the conflict really began in 2014, when the US backed a nationalist coup in Kiev. He contended that Moscow had little choice but to intervene in February, to defend the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk – which have since voted to join Russia, along with most of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. “These new territories are a major gain for Russia,” the president said. “Even Peter the Great sought access to the Azov Sea, and it is now an internal sea of the Russian Federation.” “Most importantly, the people who live there showed in a referendum that they want to be in Russia and feel they are part of our world,” Putin said. “They are now with us, millions of them, and that is the greatest outcome.” Putin also said there was “no point” in discussing additional mobilization measures, as the more than 300,000 reservists called up to fill the ranks of the military were quite sufficient.
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US issues denials after Ukraine strikes inside Russia

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied the US had anything to do with Ukrainian drone strikes on two airfields deep inside Russia, but vowed to continue supplying Kiev with anything it needs. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meanwhile, sidestepped media reports about the US hobbling HIMARS launchers by saying the Pentagon won’t “prevent” Ukraine from developing long-range capabilities. Austin and Blinken took questions from the press on Dec 06 alongside their Australian counterparts who are visiting Washington, when Dec 05’s attack on two Russian airfields and the Wall Street Journal report about modifications to HIMARS rocket launchers came up. “We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia,” Blinken told reporters, adding that what really matters is how Ukraine is coping with “ongoing Russian aggression.” The US is determined to give the Ukrainians “the equipment that they need to defend themselves, to defend their territory, to defend their freedom,” Blinken added. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, two strategic bomber bases in Ryazan and Saratov regions came under attack by drones on Dec 05 morning. Debris from drones shot down by air defenses killed three servicemen and resulted in minor damage to two bombers, Moscow said, but did not disrupt a planned strike on Ukrainian military logistics later in the day.
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US unveils first new bomber since Cold War

The US Air Force unveiled a new strategic stealth bomber on Dec 02, the first in 30 years. With an estimated cost of more than half a billion dollars, the B-21 Raider has yet to make its maiden flight. The Northrop Grumman bomber, which is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons, was showcased in a ceremony at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California. The event was attended by high-ranking Pentagon officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Austin hailed the B-21 Raider as “the embodiment of America’s determination to defend the republic that we all love,” adding: “This is deterrence the American way.” When the contract for the Raider was first announced in 2015, then-Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James claimed that the US needs a new bomber “that would allow us to take on much more complicated threats, like the threats that we fear we would one day face from China, Russia.” The stealth bomber is expected to make its maiden flight in 2023. The US Air Force originally hoped that the aircraft would take to the skies as early as 2019, but was delayed to December 2021, and then to mid-2022. It was initially projected to cost $550 million each, but over the years, the price tag swelled to $692 million due to inflation. In total, the Air Force plans to procure at least 100 of the planes.
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China to possess 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035: Pentagon report

China's nuclear arsenal will grow to 1,500 warheads by 2035, triple its current estimated stockpile, the Pentagon said on Nov 29 in its annual report on Beijing's military developments. The document, called Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, said China already possessed more than 400 warheads. The U.S. Defense Department estimated that China held at least 200 warheads in the same report two years ago. Nov 29's report predicted the tally to reach 700 in 2027 and 1,500 in 2035, marking the first time the Pentagon has made a projection for 2035. Under the New START nuclear arms treaty signed with Russia, the U.S. is permitted up to 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles and deployed heavy bombers. This means Beijing's nuclear capability could approach Washington's deployed warheads in the 2030s, although it is difficult to draw direct comparisons. The New START treaty is now on track to expire 2026 and excludes certain types of nuclear warheads. Washington's overall nuclear stockpile stood at 3,750 warheads in 2020, according to the most recent data released by the State Department. The Biden administration has urged China to engage in talks on nuclear disarmament, but Beijing has resisted, arguing that it is still behind the U.S. and Russia in terms of nuclear capability.
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US and Australia deepen defence ties, vowing to counter China’s ‘dangerous and coercive actions’

The United States will expand the number of bomber task force and fighter aircraft forces in Australia, add a US army and navy presence, better integrate US-Australian weapons manufacturing capabilities and invite Japan to join “force posture” initiatives, top officials from the two countries said on Dec 06. The officials taking part in Australia-US ministerial consultations in Washington said they shared the vision of an Indo-Pacific region where countries can enjoy security and prosperity, free from China’s heavy-handed economic and military tactics. “Unfortunately, that vision is being challenged today,” said US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. “China’s dangerous and coercive actions throughout the Indo-Pacific, including around Taiwan, toward the Pacific Island countries and in the East China and South China seas threaten regional peace and stability.” Austin attended the one-day meeting alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles. In the past, companies and research institutions at the cutting edge of defence technology have often viewed their work through a competitive, nationalistic lens. But as threats to global peace and stability have intensified from Taiwan to Ukraine, it has become more crucial to integrate manufacturing and research on artificial intelligence and quantum computing, said Marles, evident in plans to closely bind Australian and American capabilities.
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Japan aims to boost five-year defence spending by 50 per cent, to US$318 billion

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Dec 05 set a new target for military spending over the next five years to 43 trillion yen (US$318 billion), or 1.5 times the current level, as the country seeks defence build-up including the use of pre-emptive strike. Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada said Kishida told him and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to work on a budget plan to increase Japan’s 2023-2027 military spending by more than 50 per cent from 27.5 trillion yen. The planned increase is “to firmly secure the necessities to pursue substantial reinforcement” of Japan’s defence, Hamada said. Kishida’s government is currently finalising a revision of its national security strategy and mid- to long-term defence policies, which would allow the use of pre-emptive strikes in a major shift to Japan’s self-defence-only post-war principle. Critics say pre-emptive strikes could violate Japan’s pacifist constitution. The government says a “strike-back” capability is only for use in case of an imminent enemy attack. The three key documents and the budget are expected in late December. Japan has steadily stepped up its international defence role and military spending over the past decade. It aims to double its military budget in the next five to 10 years to about 2 per cent of GDP, citing a Nato standard, as threats from North Korea and China’s territorial assertiveness increase.
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Germany: 25 arrested on suspicion of planning armed coup, overthrowing government

Thousands of police carried out a series of raids across much of Germany on Dec 07 against suspected far-right extremists who allegedly sought to overthrow the state in an armed coup. Federal prosecutors said some 3,000 officers conducted searches at 130 sites in 11 of Germany’s 16 states against adherents of the so-called Reich Citizens movement. Some members of the grouping reject Germany’s post-war constitution and have called for the overthrow of the government. Justice Minister Marco Buschmann described the raids as an “anti-terrorism operation,” adding that the suspects may have planned an armed attack on institutions of the state. Prosecutors said 22 German citizens were detained on suspicion of “membership in a terrorist organisation.” Three other people, including a Russian citizen, are suspected of supporting the organisation, they said. Weekly Der Spiegel reported that locations searched include the barracks of Germany’s Special Forces unit KSK in the southwestern town of Calw. The unit has in the past been scrutinised over alleged far-right involvement by some soldiers. An active soldier in the Bundeswehr’s Special Forces Command (KSK) and several Bundeswehr reservists are suspects in the case, a spokesperson for the Military Counter-Intelligence Service (MAD) said.
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US Space Force to track North Korean missiles

The United States Space Force is working to create an early warning system for North Korean missile launches, a top commander has revealed, hoping to step up surveillance following a record number of weapons tests by Pyongyang this year. Addressing a webinar held by the Washington-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies on Nov 29, US Space Command head General James Dickinson outlined the service’s plans in the Indo-Pacific, where it set up its first-ever component command unit last week. “We are looking at how we integrate a sensor architecture that gives us as much warning as possible in terms of any type of missile activity out of North Korea,” he said, noting that Washington would share information with regional partners and allies and seek ways to “incorporate commercial sensors” into the new warning system. Though the Space Force only established its first operational unit in the Indo-Pacific just days ago, Dickinson observed that the branch already maintained a “coordination relationship” with the broader military, and would continue to develop those ties. Operating under INDOPACOM, the American command responsible for East Asia and the Indian subcontinent, the new Space Force unit appears largely focused on China. With the latest remarks from Dickinson, however, Pyongyang also appears to be a priority for the new unit.
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China Operating Illegal Police Stations Worldwide

China has set up at least 54 overseas police stations in 30 countries, including in the United States (New York), Canada, Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Argentina and Nigeria, according to a recent report from Safeguard Defenders, a human rights NGO. The police stations are part of China's campaign to "persuade" Chinese citizens suspected of criminal acts – particularly telecommunications fraud, but also political "crimes" such as political dissent – to return to China to face criminal prosecution. China not only threatens the Chinese citizens themselves but also members of their families who have stayed behind in China. Such threats have been continuing for years, as FBI Director Christopher Wray pointed out in 2020, when he mentioned a case from the US in which a Chinese government "emissary" visited a target in the US and told him that he could choose between returning to China or committing suicide. China's overseas police stations purport merely to have administrative or consular functions, but function as means of threatening Chinese abroad to return to China, thereby skipping the necessary legal requirements under international law. Crucially, the police stations operate without the consent and knowledge of the host countries, such as in the Netherlands, where one of the police stations operates out of a plain ground-floor apartment in Rotterdam belonging to a small Chinese handyman business.
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Iran morality police status unclear after 'closure' comment

An Iranian lawmaker said Dec 04 that Iran's government is ''paying attention to the people's real demands,'' state media reported, a day after a top official suggested that the country's morality police whose conduct helped trigger months of protests has been shut down. The role of the morality police, which enforces veiling laws, came under scrutiny after a detainee, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, died in its custody in mid-September. Amini had been held for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress codes. Her death unleashed a wave of unrest that has grown into calls for the downfall of Iran's clerical rulers. Iran's chief prosecutor Mohamed Jafar Montazeri said on Dec 03 the morality police ''had been closed,'' the semi-official news agency ISNA reported. The agency did not provide details, and state media hasn't reported such a purported decision. In a report carried by ISNA on Dec 05, lawmaker Nezamoddin Mousavi signaled a less confrontational approach toward the protests. ''Both the administration and parliament insisted that paying attention to the people's demand that is mainly economic is the best way for achieving stability and confronting the riots,'' he said, following a closed meeting with several senior Iranian officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi. Mousavi did not address the reported closure of the morality police.
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ASEAN paralysis over Myanmar

The ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh last weekend once again showed the group’s paralysis in dealing with Myanmar, one of its 10 members, which has been suppressing its people. After disinviting the Myanmar military from the summit, the nine leaders came out with a statement reaffirming their commitment to see through the implementation of the five-point consensus reached with the junta leader in Jakarta in April 2021. The Myanmar issue has been holding back ASEAN’s entire progress, including the group’s move to becoming a community and in addressing many pressing issues in the economy, public health and common security. Although Myanmar did not attend last weekend’s summit, it dominated discussions, including when world leaders met at the East Asia Summit, held back-to-back with the ASEAN summit. Now that Indonesia is taking over the ASEAN chair, we should expect more from the group. We can forgive outgoing chair Cambodia and its predecessor Brunei in 2020, but as the largest member Indonesia has more clout and resources to make a difference in Myanmar. In the absence of any mechanism for expelling members, ASEAN should suspend Myanmar’s membership and bar the junta from taking part in all ASEAN meetings. ASEAN should give seats to representatives of Myanmar’s opposition government, either as observers or guests, at some of its meetings.
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Iran says U.S. still sending messages for nuclear talks' resumption

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Nov 28 the United States is still sending messages for the resumption of the talks on the revival of a 2015 nuclear agreement. "Although the U.S. officials have displayed reluctance to continue the nuclear talks and claimed that negotiations were not on their agenda, they are still sending messages" for the resumption of the diplomatic process to revive the agreement, Iranian Students' News Agency quoted Nasser Kanaani as saying at a weekly press conference. Iran maintains that the diplomatic process is the best approach to safeguard all sides' interests in the talks on the nuclear deal's revival, he noted. "We express neither optimism nor pessimism and will remain realistic in this regard," he said, adding if the other side remains active and have the necessary political determination for reaching a nuclear agreement, it will receive a positive response from Tehran. In case of the other side's inaction, Iran will pursue an "independent" approach based on its own decisions and policies, he added. According to Kanaani, messages are being exchanged between Iran and other sides in the negotiations, including the U.S. government, through mediators, such as the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell or foreign ministers from friendly states who are in contact with both Tehran and Washington.
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U.S. signals support for Pakistan against resurgent terror threats

The U.S. has signaled a commitment to helping Pakistan counter a resurgence of militant violence, adding veteran Pakistani jihadi leaders to its list of global terrorists and vowing to take action against groups sheltered across the border in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The State Department Dec 01 slapped the terrorist designation on the deputy head of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an outlawed Pakistani jihadi group, and three senior leaders of al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the terrorist outfit's regional branch. The State Department's statement also said the U.S. is "committed to using its full set of counterterrorism tools to counter the threat posed by terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan," including AQIS and the TTP, to keep militants from using Afghanistan as "a platform for international terrorism." The U.S. announcement came days after the TTP in late November called off a monthslong cease-fire with Islamabad and ordered its commanders to conduct attacks across the country. Since then, the TTP has claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a police truck in Balochistan province's city of Quetta on Nov. 30, which killed four people and wounded a dozen others, amid a spate of other attacks targeted at law enforcement. The TTP's decision to rip up the cease-fire was a major blow to the Pakistani government, which can ill-afford further instability as it wrestles with an economic crisis that has raised fears of a debt default and intense political pressure from ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan.
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Chinese, Russian air forces hold 2nd joint strategic patrol of the year with 1st warplane exchange visits

Chinese and Russian militaries conducted a joint aerial strategic patrol in the Asia-Pacific region on Nov 30, the first time Chinese aircraft have landed in Russia and Russian aircraft have landed in China in such a joint patrol, and the first time the two countries have organized joint aerial patrols twice in a year. Analysts said it reflects a high level of increasing military cooperation and mutual trust that contributes to peace and stability in the region and the world. According to the annual military cooperation plan between the Chinese and Russian militaries, the two countries' air forces organized and carried out a regular joint aerial strategic patrol over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the West Pacific on Nov 30, reads a statement released by China's Ministry of National Defense on the day. In the flight that lasted about eight hours, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force sent H-6K strategic bombers, and the Russian Aerospace Forces sent Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers, escorted by Russian Su-30 SM and Su-35S fighter jets, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Nov 30. For the first time in the course of joint patrols, Russian aircraft landed at an airfield in China, and Chinese aircraft landed on the territory of Russia, according to the Russian statement, which also said that the Chinese and Russian crews acted in accordance with the provisions of international law without violating the airspace of foreign states.
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Russia deploys defense missile system on Kuril island near Japan

Russia’s defense ministry has said it has deployed mobile coastal defense missile systems on a northern Kuril island--part of a strategically located chain of islands that stretch between Japan and the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula. Japan lays claim to the Russian-held southern Kuril islands that Tokyo calls the Northern Territories, a territorial row that dates back to the end of World War Two when Soviet troops seized them from Japan. The Russian Bastion missile systems, which have missiles with a flight range of up to 500 kilometers, were deployed on the island of Paramushir in the northern portion of the Kuril Islands, the Russian defense ministry said on Dec 05. “Coastal servicemen of the Pacific Fleet will keep a round-the-clock watch to control the adjacent water area and strait zones,” it said. The ministry said that a military camp was set up on Paramushir with conditions allowing for year-round service, accommodation, recreation and food for personnel. This deployment comes a year after Russia set up the Bastion systems on the island of Matua, in the central part of the Kuril ridge, the ministry said in a statement. The Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a September report that overshadowed by the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s militarization of the Kuril Islands “has flown largely under the radar.”
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Kazakhstan, Russia seek to strengthen cooperation

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a cooperation document on Nov 28 as the two countries mark three decades of diplomatic ties in 2022. The Declaration on the 30th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between Russia and Kazakhstan contains 37 articles and stipulates efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation in the fields of politics, economy, defense, culture, education, health care, youth and sports. Before inking the document, Putin and Tokayev took part via video link in the 18th Russia-Kazakhstan Inter-regional Cooperation Forum held in the Russian city of Orenburg. "It is the first visit after Mr Tokayev's reelection as president of Kazakhstan. In this sense, it has a symbolic meaning. It underlines the special nature of our relations," Putin said at the meeting. "For Kazakhstan, Russia has been and remains our main strategic partner, a country with which we have deep ties in a wide range of sectors," Tokayev replied.
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Texas challenges Biden administration's border policy

The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Nov 29 in a case brought by border state Texas challenging the federal government's right to decide which undocumented migrants should be targeted for deportation. Defending the Biden's administration's policy, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar said the federal government has to prioritize its efforts because it does not have the resources to pursue the 11 million undocumented "noncitizens" in the country. "This is not about reducing enforcement of the immigration laws, it's about prioritizing limited resources to say go after Person A instead of Person B," Prelogar said. After more than two hours of arguments, the nine justices on the conservative-majority court did not appear to fall clearly on one side or the other of the case, which also raises thorny questions of the legality of state challenges. "It means that states can challenge the federal government on any policy with which they disagree," Prelogar said. "Federal courts should not be transformed into open forums for each and every policy dispute between the states and the national government." Texas filed suit after the Department of Homeland Security, in a September 2021 memo, instructed US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to concentrate expulsion efforts on persons who "pose a threat to national security, public safety, and border security."
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Medical

Multiple cities ease requirements for COVID-19 testing, as residents start to stockpile self-test kits

At least 10 major Chinese cities have announced the ending of requirements for the checking of 48-hour valid COVID-19 test results for riding public transport. Some cities have also ended testing requirements for entering public venues as many localities continued to optimize their epidemic responses over the weekend. Cities adjusting policies include Chengdu, Tianjin, Dalian, Shijiazhuang and Shenzhen. Shenzhen, the technology and manufacturing hub in South China's Guangdong Province, issued a statement early Saturday, confirming that residents will no longer need to provide nucleic acid test certificates when entering public places such as pharmacies, parks, and outdoor tourist attractions, as well as taking public transports, but will still need to scan a venue code to check in, and show their green health code. Residents will still need to show nucleic acid test results when visiting farmer's markets. The megacity Guangzhou has also lifted a number of restrictions, including ending test result requirements for pharmacies. Other cities such as Chengdu announced adjustments, in which nucleic acid test results are no longer needed when taking public transport. Meanwhile, the Beijing government said that service operators of buses and subways shall not refuse passengers without a 48-hour negative result, starting Dec 12. The Guangzhou Market Supervision and Administration Bureau stated that since the adjustment and optimization of the epidemic prevention and control measures on November 30, there has been a phenomenon of citizens rushing to buy medicines in Guangzhou.
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