Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Maldives
Sep 1-15, 2017
Pakistan
Court Dismisses Nawaz Sharif’s Petition; the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Files References
The Supreme Court of Pakistan has dismissed the review petitions of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his children in the Panama Papers case and upheld not only the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif but also the institution of four references against him and his close family members in the accountability courts. The apex court judgment virtually seals the political career of Nawaz Sharif for the foreseeable future, but not his politics as yet. Everything will now depend on how Nawaz Sharif and his family members fare in the references that have been filed against them. If the accountability court acquits them, then Nawaz Sharif will be able to make a comeback in not too distant a future; however, if the references go against the Sharif family, then it will be curtains for him because there is even a good chance that he will go to jail.
The Nawaz Sharif camp isn’t very optimistic about their chances in the accountability court. In fact they are convinced that the proceedings of the accountability court will be nothing more than an elaborate farce because the judgment will not be on the merits of the case. They believe that the courts will rule on political grounds and have already decided the verdict. For now, they have neither joined the NAB investigation despite receiving notices, nor have they indicated that they will appear before the accountability court once the proceedings commence – incidentally, the entire Nawaz Sharif family has gone to London. Meanwhile, a news report that the Supreme Court judge monitoring the proceedings of the accountability court had summoned officials of the NAB and instructed them to file an appeal in the Hudaibiya Paper Mills money laundering case, has only reaffirmed the assessment of the Sharifs that the judicial process against them will be biased and predetermined.
The Hudaibiya case is one which involves not just Nawaz Sharif and his family (including Finance Minister Ishaq Dar) but also Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and his family. The Lahore High Court had ruled in favour of the Sharifs and the NAB had not gone into appeal. Now that the NAB has filed an appeal, it will lie in the Supreme Court which is palpably hostile to Nawaz Sharif. More seriously, there is an apprehension that the Hudaibiya case could be used as a sword hanging over Shahbaz Sharif to drive a wedge between him and Nawaz.
Nawaz Sharif, meanwhile, is continuing to call the shots from London, issuing instructions to the new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. For now, Abbasi appears to be obsequiousness personified before Nawaz Sharif. But at the same time, he seems to have taken charge of the office of Prime Minister and re-energised it. He is holding regular cabinet meetings, confabulating with the National Security Committee, attending parliament, all things that Nawaz Sharif was never really interested in. The new style of functioning of the new PM has been well received by most people. This could be perceived as a threat to Nawaz Sharif in the future because if Abbasi performs well, he could emerge as the choice of the ‘establishment’ in the 2018 elections.
Foreign Policy Review after Trump’s South Asia Policy and BRICS Declaration
Having barely absorbed the implications of Trump administration’s South Asia policy, the Pakistanis were badly rattled after the BRICS declaration named and shamed Pakistan based terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Haqqani Network and Taliban. Banking as it was on support from Russia and China to defy the US, the Pakistanis were clearly taken aback at the references to Pakistan-based terrorist groups by both Russia and China. Against this backdrop, Pakistan held a conference of its envoys posted in all important capitals of the world to discuss the direction of foreign policy and the options available to Pakistan in the changed circumstances.
The tone for the meeting was set by the foreign minister, Khawaja Asif, who indulged in part denial (‘there are no terror safe havens in Pakistan’), part confession (‘we need to set our house in order’), part defiance (‘we will not allow any compromise on national dignity, nor will we accept scapegoating of Pakistan’) and part compromise (‘we need to sit with the Americans and convince them of sacrifices made by Pakistan’). In an interview given to a Pakistani TV channel, Asif went even further and claimed that countries like China had been impressing upon them to address the issue of terrorist organisations operating inside Pakistan. The foreign minister’s line was subsequently endorsed by not only the Interior Minister and Prime Minister, but also by the Army chief. But the Army chief also sounded a note of defiance by declaring that Pakistan had done enough and “now the world needs to do more”, and made it clear that while Pakistan was ready to help the US in the search for peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s security concerns had to be addressed.
Although the envoys conference was held behind closed doors, the selective leaks of the deliberations reveal that Pakistani diplomats advised the government to keep the relationship with the US going without endangering national sovereignty. They recommended that the US be engaged in a dialogue to create a better understanding between Pakistan and the US. This would include giving a detailed presentation to the Americans of the ‘sacrifices’ made by Pakistan in the war on terror. Making light of the BRICS declaration by giving it a spin that nothing new was contained in the references to groups that had already been banned by Pakistan, the envoys reportedly were in favour of taking a very aggressive anti-India posture to ‘expose India’s backing for terror groups’. At the end of the conference, the foreign minister told the Pakistani media that the recommendations of the conference would be deliberated upon by the National Security Committee to come up with a “new paradigm…keeping in view our relations and conditions and after making necessary adjustments”. But in an indication that the denial and delusion continues to guide Pakistan's foreign policy, the foreign minister identified the ‘core problem’ to be “Pakistan’s image in the international community and credibility of the country’s narrative”. He also mouthed the same old formulations on Afghanistan that have been repeated ad nauseam by Pakistanis for over a decade. Interestingly, the Prime Minister adopted a far more strident position in the envoys conference and said Pakistan will not allow the war in Afghanistan to be fought inside Pakistan. According to reports, he made it very clear that ‘Pakistan wouldn’t budge to any external threat and insinuation on any count’ and added that ‘Pakistan will face any situation with courage and dignity’.
While the new policy has still not been unveiled, its broad contours are no different than the old policy. This means that while Pakistan will not do anything substantial to meet the US demands (i.e. would keep the jihadist option very much in play, not just in Afghanistan but also against India), it will try to balance the US by developing closer economic and defence relations with Russia, get into a tighter embrace with China, and reach out to important Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. It was in pursuit of this policy that the Pakistani foreign minister made a series of visits, first to China, then to Iran and rounded it all with a trip to Turkey. This will now be followed by a meeting with the Russian foreign minister during the UN General Assembly. In all three countries, the Pakistanis received comforting words. The Chinese foreign minister lauded Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts and wanted the international community to recognise Pakistan's sacrifices and give Pakistan the credit it deserved. The Chinese also took the initiative to hold a trilateral meeting between Afghanistan, Pakistan and China in Beijing later in the year. The Iranians called for a negotiated solution in Afghanistan and sought regional solutions to regional problems. The Turks assured the Pakistanis that they will work with them for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Interestingly, there is no report of any of these countries having backed Pakistan to defy and stand up to the US. In fact, the grapevine is that Pakistan was advised to bring the temperature down and try to resolve the matter with the US quietly.
Afghanistan
Trump’s Threat Kick-Starts flurry of Diplomatic Initiatives
The US President Donald Trump’s South Asia policy has virtually set the cat among the pigeons. Fearing an aggressive US approach, the Pakistanis have not only started to make very conciliatory noises at the diplomatic level, but have also impressed upon some of their allies to kick-start yet another round of diplomatic initiatives to seek a peaceful resolution to the civil war inside Afghanistan. The standard Pakistani formulation being mouthed by top civil and military leaders is that: a) there is no military solution to the Afghan imbroglio; b) a solution imposed from outside will not work; c) blaming Pakistan for the situation in Afghanistan is only to gloss over the collective failure of all parties in bringing peace to that country; d) Pakistan’s interests are served by a stable, peaceful Afghanistan and Pakistan has done everything possible to contribute to peace in Afghanistan; e) a political solution that is Afghan-led, Afghan owned is the only way to bring enduring peace in Afghanistan. These points are being repeated by virtually every single Pakistani political and military leader.
With the Pakistanis leaning over backward to re-engage the Afghans in order to ward of the growing pressure of the Americans, there has also been reciprocation from the Afghan side. In his Eid message, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani said that for Afghan it was a national priority to normalise bilateral relations with Pakistan. The initial response from Pakistan to this overture was lukewarm, even stand-offish with the Pakistan foreign office spokesman saying that what was needed was ‘an extensive multi-layered engagement and revitalising the existing processes for dialogue’ including at the ‘political-to-political, military-to-military and intelligence-to-intelligence cooperation.’ Ashraf Ghani’s statement came after the visit of the Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan. Ghani repeated his offer of comprehensive talks with Pakistan during his meeting with the Turkish President on the sidelines of a conference in Kazakhstan. But while Ghani tried to push the envelope by talking about the need for third-party verification of border management on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border, the Pakistanis didn’t seem very keen on such an arrangement. Nevertheless, there have been an increasing number of contacts between Afghan and Pakistani leaders, including a phone call by the Pakistani foreign minister to his Afghan counterpart assuring him that ‘Pakistan was prepared to work with Afghanistan in all fields, including political, economic, trade and transit, security, and others for the progress and prosperity of the two countries’.
Meanwhile, even as the Americans held a trilateral meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan in which all three sides resolved to eliminate the growing threat from the ISIS, the elephant in the room, i.e. Taliban, have assured Pakistan of their support in the event of any kinetic action by the Americans in Pakistani territory. For their part, the Americans are reported to have decided to send an additional 3500 troops to Afghanistan after the US Defence Secretary signed the papers authorising more troop deployments in Afghanistan. According to the latest estimates, the troop strength of the US forces will go up from around 11000 to around 15000 after the latest deployments.
Nepal
Nepal PM Inducts more Ministers in Cabinet
Prime Minister Deuba expanded his Cabinet recently for the fifth time since he took over as the Prime Minister in June 2017. On August 22, he inducted 15 more ministers (12 form Nepali Congress and 3 from Nepal Loktantrik Forum), taking the strength of the cabinet to 54, the largest ever in Nepal’s history. Deuba said that he might expand his Cabinet further! Deuba has come under severe criticism from many quarters over the jumbo-sized Cabinet. The Election Commissioner has also expressed disconcert over the expansion with the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Ayodhee Prasad Yadav, describing it as in violation of the election code of conduct which has been in force in August, 30. The CEC however added that there is no way the Commission can initiate action against the Prime Minister. Deuba, however, rebuffed claims of violating the code of conduct, claiming that government had sought approval from Election Commission before the ministerial induction. In another context, PM Deuba said the Constitutional Amendment Bill will be tabled in the Parliament after the elections.
RJP-N Takes Exception to New Constituencies.
The Rashtriya Janta Party-Nepal (RJP-N) has lodged protest with the Prime Minister alleging that the Constituency Delimitation Commission (CDC) has effectively reduced the representation from Madhesh while carving out the electoral constituencies. The CDC, in its report to Prime Minister recently, has carved out 330 constituencies (each federal constituencies) for the provincial assembly polls and 165 for the federal elections. The elections have been called for November 26 and December 7 respectively. The RJP-N has expressed concern over “only 78 electoral constituencies in 20 districts of the Tarai region”. ‘This act of reducing the representation from Madhesh in the federal parliament is but a ploy against the RJP-N’, read a memorandum submitted by the Party to the Prime Minister.
The CDC has brought down the number of constituencies from 240-165 and once this provision comes into force following its publication in the Nepal Gazette, it would not be altered for another 20 years. In the earlier set up, 20 districts in the Tarai had 48.33% of the 240 electoral constituencies. RJP-N leadership is of the view that the CDC has reduced the number of constituencies only the plains “despite the fact that 51% of population resides in the region”. RJP-N, a unified group of 6 Madhes-based parties/organization, has long been demanding Madheshi representation on the basis of population. Anil Jha, another RJP-N leader has said that since 51% of country’s population resides in 20 districts of the Tarai as per 2011 census, the constituencies in the region must be allocated on the basis of that said. He warned Prime Minister Deuba of withdrawing party’s support “if he fails to amend the reports at the earliest”. The RJP-N believes that the CDC report was prepared to primarily suit the interests of three major parties and to keep all other parties including the RJP-N, at bay.
The Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum-Nepal (SSF-N) has also taken serious umbrage against the report and have termed it as biased, adding that the report was against the spirit of Constitution s it “failed to strike a balance between the population and geography”. Upendra Yadav of SSF-N said that only 47% of the constituencies have been allotted for 20 districts in Tarai where 51% of the population lives”. Non-Madheshi groups will continue to dominate the constituencies in Madhesh, he added.
China –Nepal Joint Venture Airline Starts Operations
Himalaya Airlines, a Nepal-China joint venture launched its inaugural flight from Kathmandu to the city of Dammam in Saudi Arabia. Dammam is the third destination for Nepal’s only operating private sector-led international airlines in the Middle East after Doha and Dubai. With the new connection, the Himalaya Airline would be able to cater to over 500,000 Nepalis staying in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Sino-Nepal Railway Link Negotiated
During his six day visit to China (September 6-11, 2017), Nepal’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara inked an extremely important agreement on trans Himalayan rail link, a proposal that both countries have been keen to accomplish since 2005 since such connectivity would help China strengthen its influence in South-Asia, and reduce Nepal’s economic and diplomatic dependence on India. After conclusion of the talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that cross-border railways is a strategic cooperation plan raised jointly by both the nations. According to the plan taken up by Nepal’s former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli in March 2016, the proposed connectivity will include two railway lines; one connecting three of Nepal’s most important cities and the second rail link providing cross-border connectivity. In addition to the rail link, the two highways that have served as traditional land route, will also be rebuilt/upgraded. Much of the infrastructure of the highway was destroyed in the 2015 earthquake.
According to media reports, China was already planning to extend its internal rail connectivity from Tibetan City of Shigatse to Gyirong on Nepal border but is unclear if the extension will reach Kathmandu.
Major Scam in Nepal Oil Corporation Land Deal: Defamation Suit against Nagrik Daily
Gopal Khadka, Managing Director of State-owned Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) has filed (August 17, 2017) a defamation case against Nagrik Daily, claiming Rs. 800 million (USD $ 78,000) in damages. The case relates to the findings of a Parliamentary Probe Committee which had concluded that procurement procedures were not followed in purchases of the lands by the NOC. The country’s premier petroleum agency was found to have indulged in unfair practices and gross financial irregularities involving millions of rupees while procuring land plots in various parts of the country. It is alleged that NOC shelled up roughly four time higher price in purchase of land to build up storage facilities in all the 7 provinces in order to build up storage facilities. The Corporation is stated to have paid Rs. 670 million more than the required amount.
The International Federation of Journalist (IFJ) has expressed serious concerns over the defamation case filed by the Chief of NOC, describing it as an attempt to silence the press. The Federation of Nepali Journalists (FNJ) has said that it respected Khadka’s right to file the case in the court but the case seems to be intended to discourage reporting against investigative journalism. FNJ is confident that the court’s verdict will uphold Nepal’s law and international standards of press freedom and principles of investigative journalism.
Nepal to Get $ 500m US Government Grant.
Nepal has signed (September 15, 2017) an agreement with the US government to secure a grant of $ 500 million (approximately Rs. 51.5 billion). Nepalese Finance Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki and acting Chief Executive of Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Jonathan Nash signed the Memorandum of Understanding to this effect in Washington DC and is part of the $ 630 million compact programme designed by the MCC for Nepal. Nepal will contribute $ 130 million. The fund would be mobilized to invest in integrated plans of road connectivity, energy generation, poverty eradication efforts and construction of physical infrastructures. John J Sullivan the US Deputy Secretary of State said that the US government is pleased to extend the assistance to mark 70 years of friendship between Nepal and US. All projects under the programme must be completed in five years, failing which the funds will go back to the US. Nepal is the only country in the South-Asian region to have received the Millennium Challenge Corporation of the US government.
Fresh Rohingya Influx in Bangladesh
At least 313,000 Rohingyas have crossed over into Bangladesh since August 25, 2017 when Rohingya insurgents had attacked police posts that prompted Myanmar’s military to retaliate. Visiting the Rohingya camps in Cox Bazar’s Ukhia province, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina described the inhuman treatment meted out to the Rohingyas by the Myanmar government. Bangladesh has extended all possible assistance to the Rohingyas refugees subjected to violence and persecution unleashed on the majority community in Myanmar. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had said that Bangladesh has provided shelter on humanitarian grounds and asked Myanmar to acknowledge and take back their nationals. Bangladesh has allocated land as makeshift arrangements and their long stay will create problems for the country. It may be recalled that 400,000 Rohingyas are already residing in Bangladesh.
Keeping the ongoing atrocities in mind, Bangladesh has urged the international community including the United Nations to take responsibility to protect them. The government has also highlighted the situation to the ambassadors of various countries and heads of international agencies. The United Nations Security Council has urged Myanmar to stop repression and has lauded Bangladesh’s efforts and its positive role in granting shelter to the needy. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina proposes a separate safe zone for the Rohingyas.
India’s External Affair Minister Sushma Swaraj has expressed India’s full support to Bangladesh over the ongoing refugee influx. In a telephone conversations, she assured PM Sheikh Hasina that India was attempting not only through bilateral and multilateral pressure on Myanmar to stop persecution of the ethnic minority but also persuade the Myanmar government to take back the fleeing Rohingyas.
Meanwhile, there has been worldwide condemnation of the violence in the Rakhine state. International assistance for the refugees have been pouring in steadily. Aircrafts from India and other nations have arrived in Chittagong with relief material. Britain has provided an additional 25 million pounds ($33 million) to Bangladesh and Myanmar to deal with the refugee crisis. Describing it as an internal matter of Myanmar, China has expressed concern over the ongoing crisis and has called for immediate steps to end it.
