Fortnightly Review & Analysis: Defence, National Security and Terrorism (Vol 2 Issue XI)

June 01-15, 2017

Defense Issues

Fire and Forget Anti-Tank Nag Missile Begins: Trial of DRDO developed missile system, Generation-3 Fire-and-Forget Anti-Tank Missile (Nag) was carried out at Pokhran Firing Range on June 12, 2017. The test fire covered the missile enabled with improved imaging infra-red seekers which navigates the missile after its launch.The missiles can be mounted and transported in a Mechanised Infantry Combat Vehicle also. With a range of 3-7 km in its other versions and 3 km in its terrestrial or land version, once fired, Nag missile seeker (Imaging Infra-Red, IIR) guides the missile to the target even if it is a moving target. The world has just a handful of “fire-and-forget” missiles, such as the American Javelin, and the Israeli Spike. The Javelin and the Spike are lighter missiles that can be carried by a soldier; the Nag is a heavier and more powerful designed to operate from vehicles and helicopters. As per media reports, Nag missile can hit its target in any weather at any time, whether day or night.

International Terrorism

Anti-Daesh Campaigns in Iraq and Syria

The ongoing military operations against Daesh in Syria and Iraq witnessed certain advancements although it is still unclear as to when Mosul and Raqqa will be finally liberated. During the fortnight, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) managed to recapture a major portion (90 percent) of Zanjili district in western Mosul, which is likely to ease the movement of security forces towards the Old City. Over the last few months, Daesh militias have been using all possible means to resist the entry of ISF into the city. As mentioned earlier also, retention of Mosul remains the most important goal of this outfit in Iraq. Further, airstrikes conducted by the Iraqi jets on 9 June resulted in killing of “dozens” of Daesh terrorists, and destroyed some of their military capabilities and hideouts in Qairawan (in western Mosul).

As a result of further inroads made by the security forces, several civilian families were evacuated and moved to safer zones. That said, evacuation task is going to be more challenging due to the presence of reportedly 200,000 civilians in the Old City alone. Meanwhile, there is growing concern regarding Daesh’s targeting of civilians who are trying to flee Mosul. Reportedly, during the first week of June, over 200 people (including five children) were gunned down by Daesh when they tried to escape the Al-Shifa neighborhood in western part of the city. With rapid loss of territorial possession and due to intensified military operation, attack of this nature in different parts of Iraq is likely to increase in the days to come. As was witnessed, Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack against Shiites in the holy city of Kerbala on 9 June, resulting in loss of 30 lives and injured at least 34 people.

In Syria, too, efforts to free Raqqa from Daesh’s control were intensified during the first fortnight of June. Apart from the Russian intervention, the United States (US)-backed Syrian forces launched an operation in the first week of June, particularly in northern Syria. Along with Mosul, recapturing of Raqqa, the de facto capital of Daesh, remains a crucial goal in the fights against this terror outfit. What is going to be a challenge in this case also is the presence of civilians. While some of the US-backed Arab fighters expressed hope to liberate/takeover Raqqa soon, the battle is expected to be a “long and bloody”. Anti-terror campaigns in Syria will remain complex due to the presence of different players with their own agendas and allies that do not eye-to-eye with others.

London Terror Attack

Terror continued to haunt the United Kingdom (UK) for the third time in less than three months. While these repeated attacks in this country gave rise to questions regards the effectiveness of its security and intelligence establishments, they can also be considered as a reminder that Daesh and its extremely radicalized supporters still have the will and capabilities to incur damages in the West. The attack near Borough Market and on London Bridge on 3 June, killing eight people, is an indication of growing safety concerns in the UK from individuals who are either directly linked with terror organizations, such as Daesh, or heavily inspired by its ideology.

The attackers have been identified as Khuram Shazad Butt, 27, a Pakistan-born British citizen; Rachid Redouane, 30, a Moroccan, who was denied asylum inBritain in 2009, and Youssef Zaghba, 22, an Italian of Moroccan descent. Since the past few months, several threat warnings had been issued to the UK authorities of such attacks, including the earlier Manchester attack, last month. However, thethree incidents in quick succession are indicative of the operational difficulty in preventing such terror plots. Furthermore, problems emanating out of radicalized individuals, home-grown jihadists and presence of immigrants with extremist connections with other terror elements from their native countries, are getting complex in the UK. The social media propaganda by Daesh, mostly carried out through online-videos and publications—undoubtedly, have several takers, and this is going to remain a worrisome trend. The use of cars, trucks and rudimentary weapons, such as knives, shows that no formal training or sophisticated equipments are required to carry out such horrifying terror activities. That these individuals could get past the existing security systems and conducted such horrendous crimes also exhibited their gradual evolution from being mere sympathizer or supporter of terror organizations to full-fledged terrorists. As Daesh fighters are coming under heavy military pressures in Raqqa and Mosul, the outfit’s ardent proponents, are expected to carry out further attacks in the Western world. It is through these activities they are going to sustain their relevance in the days to come, even if their ‘caliphate’ is wiped out completely in Syria/Iraq, sooner or later.

Iranian Parliament Attack

For the first time in three years, Daesh immediately claimed responsibility for the twin attack in Iran on 7 June in which armed assailants, dressed as women, carried out attack in the Parliament building and the tomb of Ayatollah Khomeini, both located in Tehran. Thirteen people were killed and nearly 50 were injured in this very rare incident in the heart ofTehran. In a way, this transformed Iran’s fear of Daesh into a reality. Earlier, the Iranian political and security authorities were concerned about Daesh-related developments along its borders with Iraq.

The attack, as is the case in other Western countries, could be considered as retaliation to Tehran’s role in anti-Daesh military operations in Iraq, by backing the Shiite militias. The complex nature of Shia-Sunni division and rivalry in West Asia is exposed again as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard blamed its arch-rival Saudi Arabia for this attack. A similar blame was also put on Israel and the US. However, the expansion of Daesh activities into the Iranian soil is considered as a “blowback” to the Iranian regime. Although the US and Iran see Daesh as a common threat and enemy, it is very unlikely that both these countries would cooperate to fight together against this outfit. In fact, the gap between these two countries is widening after the recent visit of the US President Donald Trump to Riyadh where he called on Saudi regime to be a bulwark against “Islamist militants” and in “constraining Iran’s regional influence”.

In the light of these, further deepening of regional rivalry between Shia and Sunni blocs looks certain. But for Iran per se, the authorities will likely concentrate on hunting down the supporters of Daesh, through whose assistance, such a daring attack could be executed successfully. Although a very insignificant number of Iranians support Daesh, there had already been cases when some of its citizens were allegedly recruited in this outfit. An Iranian official mentioned that the assailants of the Tehran attack were Iranian nationals.

US Lists Mohmmad Shafi Armar and Others as Terrorists

The US State Department has designated India recruiter of ISIS, Mohammad Shafi Armar as a Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT). This listing is made under the Section 1(b) of Executive order 13224 which enables the US government to impose sanctions on person of foreign origin to have committed, or pose a significant risk of committing, acts of terrorism that threaten the security of US nationals, or its national security. As a consequence, such persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions or dealings with the listed individuals and entities and their property and interests in property subject to United States jurisdiction is seized. It is suspected that Shafi was in touch with at least 600-700 Indian youngsters on closed Facebook groups. He formed a group called Junood-al-Khalifa-e-Hind (JKH) which facilitated the recruitment of nearly 50 youth from India. The designation by the US Department of States confirms the existence of the elusive IS India head and negates the rumours about his death in Syria.

Internal Security

Internal Security Review by Union Home Minister

The Minister for Home Affairs, Rajnath Singh, on June 3, 2017 briefed the media about the overall internal security situation in the country. The Minister highlighted that in the last three years of the NDA regime, the recorded incidents of insurgency in North East, were at the lowest in last twenty years. The Minister said that the Government has taken several effective measures to bring peace and stability in the North Eastern Region of the country. Sustained security initiatives during the last three years have brought peace and stability to the region after decades of insurgency, the Minister claimed.

Further, he highlighted that surrender of Left Wing Extremist (LWE) cadres’ recorded 185 percent increase during the last three years. To tackle the menace of LWE, Shri Rajnath Singh said that in January, 2015, the Government has launched the National Policy and Action Plan covering security, development and ensuring rights and entitlements of the local communities. As a result, there has been a decline of 25 percent in LWE related incidents of violence and casualties to the security forces has also dropped by as much as 42 percent during the period May 2014-April 2017. The elimination of LWE cadres rose by a sharp 65 percent and surrenders by LWE cadres recorded 185 percent increase.
Referring to the security situation in J&K, the Union Home Minister said that after the Surgical Strikes in September 2016, incidence of infiltration have dropped significantly by as much as 45 percent. Under Prime Minister’s Development Package (PMDP 2015) amounting to Rs. 80,068 crore, Rs. 61,112 crore has been sanctioned for 63 Major Development Projects and Rs. 19,961 crore released.

Shri Rajnath Singh said that the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi chaired the 11th meeting of Inter State Council on July 16, 2016, which was held after a gap of 10 years. The Government also revived the Zonal Councils with the Home Minister himself having chaired eight meetings of Zonal Councils, where 199 items were discussed and 87 resolved. The Minister said that India was playing a leading role in Disaster Management in the South Asian region. The Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has released the National Disaster Management Plan in June 2016, which is the first such plan in the world to integrate the four priority areas of Sendai framework.

Jammu and Kashmir

Clashes in Sumbal Area

In the aftermath of killing four militants in early morning of June 5, 2017, clashes erupted between the protestors and security forces in the Sumbal area of Bandipra district. In conventional pattern, the protestors hurled stones towards the Security Forces and the area observed shutdown to mark the protest of killing the four militants. As a preventive measure, local authorities suspended all cellular networks and mobile internet services. The Director General of Police Dr SP Vaid affirmed that Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) was waging a major cyber war in Kashmir and Police and other security agencies were effectively dealing with it. JuD has declared 2017 as a year of Kashmir and intensified their malicious activities by misleading Pakistani children and encouraging them to fight Jihad in Kashmir valley. Various cyber means are used to support JuD’s activities in the valley with the objective of creating mayhem and disturbance in Kashmir.

Police Foil Separatist meeting in the Valley

The J&K Police on June 05, foiled a proposed meeting of three top separatist leaders to discuss raids by National Investigation Agency during June3-4, as part of investigation into flow of hawala funding to the separatists. The three top Hurriyat leaders Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, and Yasin Malik, were scheduled to meet at Hyderpora on June 05, 2017 which happens to be the office Geelani and then address the press conference. However, the J&K police placed Mirwaiz and Geelani under house arrest and also detained Malik.

Intense Infiltration Attempts Across the Border

The army foiled four infiltration attempts on June 7-8, 2017 and killed 12 terrorists in 24 hours. The first three infiltration bids were foiled by the Army in Machhil Sector along Line of Control (LoC) in Kupwara on June 07, 2017 in which the Rashtriaya Riffles detachment killed four militants in an intense gun battle. On the same day, the Army foiled an infiltration bid by a group of highly trained militants in Kanzalwan area of Gurez sector. Furthermore in another infiltration bid, Army killed three militants in Nowgam Sector of Kupwara on June 07, 2017. On June 08, 2017 Army foiled a major infiltration bid in the Uri Sector of Baramulla district and killed five infiltrating militants in a fierce gun battle that lasted for two hours. Similar bid was also foiled by the Army on June 10 in Gurez Sector of Uri where one militant was killed andan AK-47 was recovered from him.

NIA confirms Hawala as major means of Terror Funding

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) confirmed on June 11, 2017 that majority of funds pumped into Kashmir Valley for subversive activities originated from Pakistan and inducted into India through a complex network of hawala operators from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bangladesh. This revelation was made after thorough investigation by the agency.

It is the first of its kind the NIA has conducted a detailed investigation into terror funding cases ever since the militancy erupted in the Kashmir since 1990s. In the FIR lodged by the NIA it has named the Jamat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed as one of the main accused. Based on the investigations, in the extensive raids conducted by NIA from June 2-4, 2017, at least Rs. 1.5 crore cash and incriminating documents were seized along with the letterheads of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hijbul Mujahideen (HM), pen-drives and laptops. The NIA also confirmed that domestically, hawala operators based in Delhi, Gurgaon, Sonepat and Jammu are assisting these separatists’ leaders in carrying out money transactions worldwide.

Investigators also zeroed down on cross-border trade between India and Pakistan across the LoC as a major means of terror funding with most of the goods coming into the country being under invoiced. In this process, the net balance between actual price and under invoiced amount, was being paid to the separatists. The NIA also raided some businessmen in Jammu in this connection. Similarly, the NIA affirmed that the cross border exports to Pakistan were being over-invoiced and the difference routed back to the valley through hawala. It is suspected that money apart from being paid to outfits like Hizbul Mujahideen and Dukhtaran-e-Milat, both of whom have been named in the FIR, was also disbursed to stone pelters and other agitators. This major breakthrough by NIA is achieved after the Hurriyat Conference suspended leader Nayeem Khan allegedly confessed in a television sting operation to receiving money from Pakistan and Laskhar-e-Taiba for Kashmir unrest.

Suspected Militant Danish Ahmed Surrenders

Suspected Hizbul Mujahideen militant Danish Ahmed surrendered before Police on Jun 7, 2017. Danish had reportedly attended the funeral of HM commander Sabzar Bhat in Tral and was seen in video footage carrying grenade. Police confirmed that Danish was involved in stone-pelting incidents at Handwara in 2016 and instigated youth to join militancy. During preliminary investigation, Danish revealed that militants are engaged in acts of extortion and thuggery in and around areas where they operate. He further affirmed that huge amount of money was being supplied by Pakistan to keep the militant activities alive.

Left Wing Extremism

Nine CPI Maoists Cadres Arrested in Bihar

Nine cadres of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) were arrested in Jamui District, Bihar on June 05, 2017. Preliminary investigation suggests that these cadres were involved in the attack on CRPF personnel in which 25 persons were ambushed on April 24, 2017. The operation was jointly conducted by CRPF, Sashastra Seema Bal, Special Task Force and Bihar Police. These cadres confessed that they were in Sukma for special training. Twelve pipe bombs weighing 5 Kilograms each, one can-bomb weighing 10 Kilograms, 40 meters of electric wire and two batteries were also recovered from their possession.

Wanted Naxal couple surrender at Malkangiri, Odisha

Most wanted Naxal couple carrying bounty of rupees nine lacs on their heads, surrendered before the police in Malkangiri district in Odisha on June 07, 2017. The couple was wanted in several cases of serious violence like murder, landmine blasts, ambush on security personnel etc. The couple were identifies as Rama Kawasi (38) and Weli Madkami Alias Malati (25) and they confessed their involvement in several Naxal activities. Kawasi, who was a deputy commandant in Maoist ranks, hailed from Bodigeta village under Kalimela police station limits in the Maoist-hit district. He had been active since 2002 and carried a reward of Rs five lakh on his head announced by Odisha government while wife Weli belonged to Bada Tekguda village in Kalimela area and worked as an area committee member in Boipariguda Area Committee. She had been involved in over a dozen crimes since 2006 and carried Rs four lakh reward, the police said. The couple urged Maoists to give up arms and join the social mainstream.

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