The world is at an inflection point. It is in search of new power balance, a new equilibrium. As a result, there is uncertainty and instability in the system.

The key features of the current world order are:

• The decline of the US as the hegemon is palpable. The new world order is going to be shaped at the outcome of US-China rivalry. China’s rise and its aggressive intent is a key factor in the shaping of the world.
• President Trump has shaken up the world system. The friends and allies of the US are no longer sanguine about reliance on the US for security. Europe is looking towards developing its own security arrangements. Japan and South Korea who rely on US for security may explore other options including the nuclear one.
• The Middle East is highly destabilised. Israel is working towards stamping its dominance in the region by controlling the Gaza and West bank. Iran’s nuclear assets are likely to be.
• The inadequacy of multilateral institutions like the UNSC to deal with global security challenges.
• Ongoing wars, civil wars which are making the system even more unstable. President Trump has warned repeatedly of a third world war if Russia-Ukraine war does not stop.
• Military budgets are increasing. New technologies are leading to new war fighting doctrine.
• Today, almost everything can be weaponised. For instance, the US has used its dominance in the global finance to harm the economy of Russia and Iran. Technology and trade are also being weaponised. Trade and technology war has deepened, making the system even more unstable.
• Emerging technologies like the AI and synthetic biology are advancing rapidly, making human agency as less relevant. There is a threat that new technologies are increasingly pushing the human out of the decision making loop.
• Arms race is spreading to cyber and outer space.
• The advent of crypto currencies will make the Central Reserve Bank less relevant. This could lead to instability in world financial markets.
• Covid 19 pandemic showed that the capability of the nation to deal with new viruses limited.
• Climate change and environmental degradation has created new challenges which requires global cooperation.

India

• The turbulence in the international system provides India an opportunity as well as challenges.
• India has followed the policy of strategic autonomy, multi vector engagements, projecting the voice of Global South, advocating reform of the multilateral system, participating in influential regional platform like BRICS and SCO. India’s policies are balanced, constructive and based on the idea of Vasudhaiva Kutumbkam and Sarve Bhavantu Sukhina.
• India’s stature in the world has risen because of these factors: positive policies, collaboration and cooperation, non confrontationist, resolution of dispute by dialogue and diplomacy, multiple engagements.
• India’s own capabilities in economy, science and technology and military sphere have increased. India has vast pool of talent and a large market. In a conflict-ridden world, India is offering something positive.
• Challenges before India are: instability in the neighbourhood and strategic regions, instability in global economy, breakdown of multilateralism, dominance of large technology companies on technology, the difficulties in maintaining its sustained economic growth.
• Domestic factors can also play a role. There is a need to maintain internal social stability, meet with the challenges of radicalism and terrorism.