Poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not a recent development; it has been practiced for decades and remains a vital source of livelihood for many in the region. Its expansion can largely be attributed to the failure of state institutions to develop infrastructure and create legal employment opportunities for the general population. Over the past forty years, geopolitical conflicts and prolonged wars in Afghanistan have further fuelled the growth of poppy cultivation in both countries. The Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands eventually evolved into a hub for the drug trade, facilitated by clandestine networks sustained by both internal and external actors, and enabled by weak state control. Although successive bans have been imposed on poppy farming, these have often been implemented superficially due to the high profits associated with the trade.

Following the Taliban's return to power in Kabul in August 2021, the regime announced a new ban on poppy cultivation in 2022, enforced under laws decreed by the Supreme Leader. While the 2022 harvest was largely unaffected by the new restrictions, the Taliban has since intensified efforts to eradicate poppy fields, leaving many Afghan farmers with few viable economic alternatives. In the wake of this ban, poppy cultivation has increased in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces, activated in part by the migration of Afghan opium farmers across the border. This shift mirrors previous patterns seen after earlier bans, driven by a combination of ‘push and pull’ factors, and is likely to produce similar impacts on Pakistan's social fabric and economic conditions.

This VIF Brief seeks to examine the geopolitical factors underlying the rise of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to analyze the drivers behind its shift to Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces. It will also explore the various push and pull factors influencing the emergence and expansion of poppy markets within Pakistan.