Prelude

The environment these days (as seen through the electronic media) is so charged up with matters military that ‘A’ stands for Akash (the surface to air missile) and ‘Z’ for ZU23 (air defence gun). More strategically oriented debates veer around taking back Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK), balkanization of Pakistan and so on. What is not so explicit is the apparent frustration against such a sudden stop of the 88 hours war. Majority opinion appears to be favouring full scale military operations to get rid of perennial problem of terrorism in India.

Three major facts have remained obscure from the public gaze. First, we have been at war (against terrorism) since middle of 1989. The intensity increased in 1999 (Kargil) and we came very close to full scale military operations in 2001 (Operation PARAKRAM). But terrorism continued almost un- abated. Secondly, the political leadership demonstrated that some non military actions (05 August 2019, abrogation of Article 370) have paid better dividends as compared to the war of attrition against the terrorists. Thirdly, with the current re defined thresh hold, war against terrorism will require a whole of the nation approach where a large number of institutions and the citizens have to come on board.

Thus, the operation that started on 6 May 25 is still on. It is the period of lull before another storm. Meanwhile India has envisioned a future with some of the most audacious goals that are to be achieved. To be successful in realizing our vision, we need to galvanise the entire nation erase the menace of terrorism and reach the USD 30 Trillion GDP by 2047. Hence this can not be a single objective linear equation akin to military operations- simple, swift, sure. The military operations that India has been fighting against Pak sponsored terrorism since 1989 can be analysed through three distinct phases.

1989 to Uri Surgical Strike (2016), Balakot (2019) and Post Pahalgam (2025)

The tempo of military operations grew like a crescendo in 1989. Surprisingly the deaths and destruction of civilian lives and property, martyrdom of security forces went un noticed till as late as September 2016. Please see table below:

A War Against Terrorism From 1989 to 10 May 2025

Source: Fatalities 1988-2019^[1], 2000 onwards^[2]

During the period 1989 to 2016, the security forces (SF) suffered maximum casualties. The peak was reached in 2000 with 638 personnel making the supreme sacrifice. Annual average of SF casualties during the three-year period from 1999 to 2001 was 594 personnel. Prior to this from 1996 to 1999 this average was 356. It was during this period that very large number of Kashmiri pandits were persecuted and hence fled their ancestral homes in the valley. The figures shown in the table above do not include that number. Even the film ‘Kashmir Files’ by Vivek Agnihotri on the atrocities committed on the Pandits created mixed reaction. Nevin Kallepali in Pulitzer Centre observes that the film (Kashmir Files) depicts the plight of Pandits in 1990 with stunning inaccuracies laden with scenes of violence so lurid that it veers towards a parody. In the beginning of his article, he himself declares that the number of minority Hindus (Kashmiri Pandits) in the valley came down from 1,140000 in 1947 to just about 6500 now.^[3] This bewildering gap between observed facts and interpretation persists with a large segment in Indian population. Soldiers dying in any number and civilian casualties so far have been business as usual.

The Indian government took three major initiatives during three distinct periods. First, they crossed the Line of Control (LOC) in 2016 to strike at the terrorists’ camps. Three years later the Indian Air Force struck major terrorist camps across the International Borders. On 5 August 2019 the temporary Articles 370 and 35 of India’s Constitution were abolished. All these actions have shown remarkable reduction in the loss of lives and terrorists’ activities. In light of this the incident on 22 April 2025 was somewhat at par with the trend. This time government of India wanted to lift the bar by several notches. That is where the 88 hours of operations against Pakistan fits in. As per the official statements by the political and military top brass from here on, it is going to be a long haul.

Contours of National Effort to Maintain the Credibility of ‘New Normal’ without Compromising Vision 2047

Electrifying Vision and Lofty Goals. The Indian establishment has – very fortunately, remained steadfast in sticking to their long-term vision of attaining USD 30 trillion GDP by 2047, along with USD 18000 per capita.^[4] This would translate into about eight-fold rise in GDP and nine-fold rise in GDP per capita. Annual economic growth will have to be maintained between seven and eight percent. The key areas for the government in this journey range from green energy hubs, water security and optimizing urban delivery of public service, universal basic income, fast pace industrial development, making India a global hub for manufacturing and so on. Study of NITI Ayog paper highlighting the details of these programmes, brings out the level of galvanization of human capital to realize the vision.^[5] The current tempo of urgency (under the urge to secure the nation) needs to be maintained for a long time without any negative outcome on the military or international front. This is going to be a huge task. It may be prudent to look at where we are today. As in October 2024, the government figures on contribution of manufacturing to the GDP is just 14%, agriculture contributes 17.66%,^[6] for more than half the population agriculture is the main occupation (54.6%).^[7] A serious challenge for increasing the per capita GDP.

Silver Lining in the Four days War

Boost to Indigenization and Knowledge Economy. As the dust settled down on the tumultuous days from 6 May to 10 May 25, two clear winners emerged. First, the spectacular performance of the air defence system that kept the nation safe from one of the most unprecedent invasion of India by drones and missiles from Pakistan. They used the famed Turkish drones and much touted missiles targeting some of the Indian cities. All this proved to be damp squib. This was in stark contrast to destruction of Pakistani terrorists’ camps and their air bases- with pin point accuracy. Much has been talked about this. What has not come to the public knowledge are two facts. First, the air defence system was a result of superb integration of legacy (1970s vintage) and the modern (Akash, Barak, S-400) systems. Second, the integration was done by the Indian specialists in the field. Thirdly, a very large number of systems were developed by young Indians from ordinary technical institutions in India. These students capitalized on the government incentives to create a high tech start up eco system. Incidentally the technologies are of dual use type – for securing the nation and for creating wealth- propelling the Viksit Bharat flight. Bulk of the systems used were indigenous or legacy weapons like the L 70, Schilka, and ZU23 anti-aircraft guns. Akash, a major ground to air missile was indigenous and so were large number of drone and anti drone systems, communication networks and command and control centres that integrated the entire air defence which too was designed, established and manned by the Indians. New projects to replace S-400, Barak and French missiles by the indigenous ones have been initiated. It is likely that most of the critical systems that were used in the high-tech war will be inducted soon given almost ten years of preparation that has gone in for Atmnirbhrata in defence. Here is a glimpse.

Sanghpriya and his classmates- the pioneers of IG Drones, were actually working on a college project to resolve the sedimentation problem in the Hirakund dam in Odisha way back in 2014. Their project first led them to satellites and then to drones. It was in 2018 that IG Drone was registered as a start up. Initially they focussed on surveillance tasks, hence their customers included HCL, Reliance Power, Adani Group. In 2022 they plunged into defence sector. This meant stringent tests and major improvements. After their performance in the recent operations IG Drones are here to stay- in case they continue to innovate and improve. Same goes for start-ups like IdeaForge and DroneAcharya.^[8]

As per Talent, Ideas, Capital, Entrepreneurship (TICE) site, the other start-ups that are catching up are Big Bang Boom Solutions for counter drones and under water defence. Tonbo systems is working on night vision and imaging devices. India is likely to see emergence of defence sector unicorns in times to come. This has been possible due to relevant policy changes and financial support and industry friendly ecosystem. The most encouraging part is that these big players are emerging from small places- tier 2 and tier 3 cities. DRDO is reaching out to these places with their incubators and test labs.^[9]

Some of the major initiatives by the government like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI), ‘Innovation for Defence Excellence’ (iDEX) and ‘SRIJAN’ have resulted in modern defence systems produced by the Indian start ups- ‘SWITCH UAV’ by IdeaForge as a counter to drones, loitering ammunition by Alpha Design in collaboration with Elbit of Israel, and ‘Nagastra I’ by the Solar industries. ‘New Space Research’ has produced swarm drones.^[10] A Hyderabad based firm has developed 100% indigenous system (Indrajaal) that will protect an area 1000 to 2000 square kms against UAV, incoming weapons, loitering ammunition. It uses ten different technologies including cyber security, quantum computing, robotics and AI.^[11]

In the field of cyber security- quantum encryption techniques are being developed by the Indian firms for secure communications. Besides AI and Big Data tools are being developed to identify prospective cyber threats. Also 52 satellites are being developed for surveillance and perhaps target acquisition and guidance systems. Of these 21 are being developed by ISRO and 31 by the private sector. In 2025 India exported defence systems worth Rs 24000 crore. There are plans to double this to Rs 50,000 crores by 2029. Even the global market for drones alone will be about $11 Billion. India is likely to acquire 12% of the global market in drones only.^[12] If the current trend and enthusiasm continues India can soon become global leader in defence exports with a large-scale diversification of products from missiles to fast patrol boats and combat aircraft.^[13]

Another opportunity that has emerged from the challenges of recent conflict is for indigenous combat aircraft. So far India’s dependence in this sector ranged from bare shell fighter, missiles and weapon systems, avionics and Electronic Warfare suits and so on. During the past decade the critical dependency got reduced to suitable engines. Thanks to the US misdemeanour and India’s urgency, the long-awaited indigenous Kaveri engine for LCA series and even Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) seems to be a possibility. If this happens India will join the select club of nations that have expertise in design and manufacture of high thrust and desired ‘power to weight ratio’ fighter aircraft ‘dry engine’.

India’s growth trajectory for vision 2047 involves other big ticket strategic initiatives. These include metals and semiconductor sector. In metals India is second largest producer of crude steel. But the gap between the first (China) that produced almost 1200 million tons of steel last year and India with 149 million tons of steel during the same year is huge. The steel production in India grew at 8.6% last year.^[14] This may look impressive if seen in isolation. But it is much below the required rate for global competition. Besides the higher value chain products in this industry like ships, aircraft, automobile, real estate etc. that consume steel also need to grow fast to trigger internal demand. Given the volatile tariff regime higher production can not be sustained on export only. China today has 70% share of all new orders for ship building. India has less than one percent share. Though in the field of green energy ships India is ahead of China.^[15] However, India has ambitious plans for growth in ship building. The current national budget has earmarked Rs 25000 crores for shipbuilding in India besides extending the Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Policy.^[16] In addition, the government has planned to build 112 crude oil tankers locally by 2040. Though India is the third largest importer of crude oil it has just 5% of its own oil tankers. The investment in oil tankers will take this to 69% by 2047.^[17]

In semiconductor sector though India started very late the volume of investments, creation of competitive environment, public private participation, foreign collaboration, involvement of academia and the pace at which production and innovation are taking place are encouraging. There are six partnerships that are in the field. Big IT majors like the HCL, Tata Electronics, Tata Semiconductor manufacturing, Murugappa Group CG and more are in the field. Foxconn of Taiwan, Japanese and South Korean semiconductor manufacturing firms are in collaboration. Malaysian government- encouraged by rapid India progress in the field, have shown interest in partnering with India. More than seven hundred universities and best engineering colleges are creating high quality human capital in the field of design and development. One of the universities have produced wafers ready for production line.^[18] A team of Indian Institute of Science (IISC) have made the biggest breakthrough by submitting a report for producing 2D chips that would have thickness much less than the three nano meters thickness for which only Taiwan had the expertise. The chip by Indian Institute of Science (IISC) Bengaluru will be in Angstrom -ten times thinner than a nano meter.^[19] This would revolutionise computing and ICT industries. The I-phones of tomorrow may be powered by Indian chips- so would be the new generation weapon systems- cyber security, cyber attack, RADARS, satellites, avionics for the aircraft, even AI enabled fighter aircraft engines, automobiles and all appliances/equipment that need Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) capabilities. As per the current pace of progress India is likely to be in the big league of high -technology systems production hub.

New Geopolitical Posture and Vision 2047: Whole of the Nation Approach

On 10 May 25, three statements by the Indian leadership define India’s current geopolitical posture. First, the operation is still on, the ‘pause’ is conditional. Second, any act of terrorism if seen to be originating or triggered by Pakistan would be considered as an act of war against India and hence the reaction will be scaled accordingly. Third, no talks on Kashmir except on Pak Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. There are big challenges for India in maintaining this posture- though these can also be converted into once- in -a- lifetime opportunities for the nation.

Internationally, Pakistan has managed to endear itself with the US; Türkiye another NATO nation is also firmly with Pakistan. This resulted in approval of loan to Pakistan by the IMF and the World Bank. China- Pakistan bond has also become stronger than ever before. Hence, Pakistan will have access to funds and weapons. The Russians who were all weather Indian friends are themselves embroiled in a never-ending war. Thus, all our bonhomie with the G7, G20 and the US has not resulted in isolation of Pakistan. To start with it was very naive to expect that the West would jettison Pakistan since they created it in 1947 as a pliable, vassal state.

Given the frequent declarations by the Prime Minister and his actions post Pahalgam, vision 2047 is non negotiable. This would create a trajectory that would involve fast pace economic growth, constant state of military preparation, capability to traverse the path alone (Atmanirbharata) if required, conducting military operations with much more fury and lasting impact if the red line is crossed.

Internally, though we have given some semblance of national unity across religions, sub nationalities, political parties, maintaining the same at perhaps even higher level will require extremely deft handling by the government. The Indian air defence did a remarkable job in keeping the major towns from Amritsar to Bhuj totally immune from the Pakistani missiles and drone attacks. Even a few of these exploding in the designated target area would have tested the apparent unity. Thus, this capability needs to be further improved.

The challenges enumerated above can well be converted into opportunities in galvanising the Indian population in to highly efficient and cohesive work force, adapting the tenets of fourth industrial revolution. Deep reforms in the military can make the nation rediscover the military genius of Kautilya and Chandragupta. We also need to remember that the next round of military conflict may not be what we experienced during May this year. We have two options as regards military operations. First, prepare for the ‘future’. Second, create the desired ‘future’ and make the adversary fight as per the contours drawn by us. The second option is always better but will require a very smart thinking, smarter than the smart weapons.

End Notes

^[1] Fatalities in Terrorists violence 1988-2019
https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/data_sheets/annual_casualties.htm
^[2] Data Sheet advanced Search Jammu and Kashmir https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/india-jammukashmir
^[3] Kallepalli Nevin ( 15 August 2024), ‘To understand India Listen to the Pandits of Kashmir’ https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/understand-india-listen-pandits-kashmir
^[4] Vision India@2047
https://pandr.py.gov.in/sites/default/files/Vision%20India%20@%202047%20Document.pdf
^[5] Virmani Arvind NITI Paper July 2024 https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2024-07/WP_Viksit_Bharat_2024-July-19.pdf
^[6] Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation ( 02 October 2024) Sector Wise GDP of India https://statisticstimes.com/economy/country/india-gdp-sectorwise.php
^[7] Chapter 8 Contribution to the GDP by Agriculture sector https://mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/Statistical_year_book_india_chapters/Ch_8_SYB2017.pdf
^[8] Akshit Pushkarm 16 may 2025 IG Drone: Meet The Indian Start up That was key to Operation Sindoor https://inc42.com/startups/ig-drones-meet-the-indian-startup-that-was-key-to-operation-sindoor/
^[9] Shreshtha Verma TICE (16 May 25) Operations Sindoor Sparks Starts up Surge India’s Defence Sector Draws Investors Eyes https://www.tice.news/tice-trending/operation-sindoor-sparks-startup-surge-indias-defence-sector-draws-investor-eyes-9074292
^[10] Start up Shiksha 21 May 25, India’s Defence Start Ups Post Operation Sindoor https://startupshiksha.in/post/indias-defense-startups-post-operation-sindoor-2/
^[11] Geetanath V , The Hindu (9 July 2021) , Hyderabad Firm Develops Drone Defence Dome https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/hyderabad-firm-develops-drone-defence-dome/article35227828.ece
^[12] Research Unit Press Information Bureau (Santosh Kumar/ Ritu Kataria/ Kritika Rane) 14 May 25 Operation SINDOOR The Rise of Atmanirbhar Innovation in National Security India’s Growing Technological Self Reliance https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/may/doc2025514554901.pdf
^[13] Tripathi Sanjiv 19 May 2025 OpIndia , After Operation Sindoor India can become a global Leader in defence exports https://www.opindia.com/2025/05/operation-sindoor-how-india-can-become-global-leader-defence-export/#google_vignette
^[14] December 2024 Crude Steel Production and 2024 global crude steel production totals ( 24 January 2025 Brussels https://worldsteel.org/media/press-releases/2025/december-2024-crude-steel-production-and-2024-global-totals/
^[15] Global Ship Building Race of 2025 https://www.shipuniverse.com/global-shipbuilding-race-of-2025/
^[16] Union Budget Boosts Shipbuilding with New Mega Clusters
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2098573
^[17] India to invest $10 Billion to make 112 oil tankers locally by 2040https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/india-to-invest-10-billion-to-build-112-oil-tankers-locally-by-2040/
^[18] Cyrill Melissa and Kapur Yashoda – 15 May 2025, India’s Semi conductor Sector Tracking Government Support and Investment Trends https://www.india-briefing.com/news/setting-up-a-semiconductor-fabrication-plant-in-india-what-foreign-investors-should-know-22009.html/
^[19] The Economic Times (PTI) 20 April 2025 Indian Scientists Submit Detailed Project Report to Develop New Semiconductor Material
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/indian-scientists-submit-detailed-project-report-to-develop-new-semiconductor-material/articleshow/120451811.cms?from=mdr

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