Abstract

As the Israel-Hamas war of 20 months saw no respite, Saudi Arabia emerged as the major custodian of the Palestine Cause and the Two-State solution. Saudi FM reiterated Kingdom’s rejection of displacement of Palestinians while speaking at the "Antalya Ministerial Meeting on the Two-State Solution and Permanent Peace in the Middle East" in Türkiye; he stressed the importance of an immediate return to the ceasefire in Gaza. The ceasefire must be sustainable, serve as a path to alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza, and be the beginning of a final solution to the Palestinian cause through the establishment of a Palestinian state, he declared. "The entry of aid to Gaza cannot be linked to a ceasefire, as this violates the foundations of international law, and preventing aid from reaching the Gaza Strip and using it as a tool of war is also a flagrant violation of all norms and the foundations of international law and is rejected by all," Prince Faisal said. He further stressed that the Arab and Islamic group is committed to a comprehensive peace that guarantees the security of all in the region and guarantees the rights, security, and future of the Palestinian people within the framework of their independent state. Saudis also condemned Israeli closure of 6 UNRWA Schools in Jerusalem.

Saudi-US relations and exchanges saw an unprecedented and intensified movement as Riyadh agreed to host US-Russia-Ukraine talks. Saudi-US themselves held five rounds of bilateral consultations over the span of a week. The talks, which covered political, defence, and security issues, as well as regional and international developments, reflect deepening engagement between the two allies. This was also in the run up to the momentous visit of President Trump 2.0 in May. As part of this intensified coordination, US Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla conducted a five-day tour of the region from April 1 to 5, visiting five countries. He spent two days in Saudi Arabia, where he met with Saudi Chief of General Staff Gen. Fayyad Al-Ruwaili. Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman also received a phone call from US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah met US NSA and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the State Department in Washington.

Talks for regional de-escalation as well as that in Gaza were held between Saudi and Iraqi Defence Ministers; Saudi and Egyptian FMs; and Emirati and Israeli FMs as the Israeli army announced on that it had completed the siege of Rafah, and finished establishing the Morag Corridor, isolating Rafah from Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.

Hundreds of Israeli soldiers signed a new petition demanding the government reach a prisoner swap deal and end the war on the Gaza Strip as per Andalou. Israeli public broadcaster KAN said the soldiers who signed the letter are from different divisions and specialties in the army, including intelligence unit 8200, special forces and elite units, such as Sayeret Matkal, Shayetet and Shaldag. KAN added that between 20% to 30% of the signees are active reservist soldiers.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on rejected a new Israeli proposal to control aid deliveries in Gaza, saying it risks "further controlling and callously limiting aid down to the last calorie and grain of flour." "Gaza is a killing field - and civilians are in an endless death loop," said Guterres as he again called for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and full humanitarian access in Gaza.

The leaders of Egypt, France, and Jordan held a joint phone call with US President Donald Trump, on the sidelines of the tripartite summit held in Cairo on April 7.

In his second meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his approval and excitement over Trump's plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza. 'Unlike in Ukraine or Syria, Gazans are boxed in and can't leave,' he said, adding that Israel is not the one responsible for boxing them in. But Trump gradually has become disenchanted with Netanyahu when he told him “You Gotta be reasonable, Bibi”. US has also begun to directly deal with Hamas and Houthis and Iran to secure the release of hostages and to try and end hostilities on various fronts. US ME envoy Witkoff held discussions with his Iranian counterpart FM Araghchi regarding the Iranian nuclear plan, mediated by Oman.

Syrian leader Ahmed Al Sharaa, after scotching differences with the Kurds (SDF) continued his visits to Saudi Arabia and Qatar and outreach to other countries to push for lifting of sanctions and reconstruction of Syria. He also offered to have good relations with Israel.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar agreed to pay $15 mn that Syria owed to World Bank so that they can participate in IMF and World bank meetings and seek assistance.

Turkiye and Israel who nearly came to a conflict in Syria were prevailed upon by Trump to sort out their differences. Hence technical teams of the two countries met in Baku.

Jordan outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s most vocal opposition group, and confiscated its assets after members of the group were found to be linked to a sabotage plot, Interior Minister Mazen Fraya said. King Abdullah II of Jordan also met Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and discuss the regional developments particularly matters related to the security and stability of the region.

India

Consequent upon the heinous terrorist attacks and killing of 26 Indian tourists in Pahalgam, J&K by Pak based terror group (TRF) all the regional countries expressed condolences or condemned these terror attacks. However, most of them failed to condemn Pakistan which is the genesis and the nurturer of these terror groups. India vowed to retaliate. Of course, Turkiye and Azerbaijan and the OIC expressed their solidarity with Pakistan. Several leaders called PM Modi and EAM and NSA. Iran and Saudi Arabia indulged in shuttle diplomacy as the calls for de-escalation grew. Israel openly supported India with whatever course of action it preferred to fight the terrorism.

For more details (Please see https://www.vifindia.org/article/2025/april/29/West-Asian-Leaders-and-Organisations-Condemn-Terrorist-Attack-in-Pahalgam-Jammu-and-Kashmir)

Israel-Palestine Conflict: Rising Tensions and Humanitarian Concerns

The Israel-Palestine conflict saw a significant escalation, with violence intensifying in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. A surge in confrontations between Israeli forces and Palestinian protesters, coupled with a series of settler attacks, has sharply increased the death toll, prompting urgent international calls for restraint. The volatile security situation has placed additional strain on an already fragile status quo, with the potential for this unrest to spiral into a broader regional conflict.

The latest escalation reflects the deep-seated, unresolved tensions that continue to define the Israeli Palestinian relationship. The ongoing settlement expansion, coupled with aggressive policing and military actions in Palestinian territories, has fuelled resentment and anger among Palestinian communities. These flashpoints have been further exacerbated by provocations around sensitive religious sites, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which remains a potent symbol of Palestinian identity and resistance. The deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza, compounded by economic blockades and restricted access to basic services, have also contributed to the growing unrest.

From a broader geopolitical perspective, the renewed violence risks destabilising the fragile regional order, potentially drawing in regional actors and complicating ongoing normalisation efforts between Israel and several Arab states. The escalating conflict also poses a critical test for U.S. and European diplomatic efforts, as well as for regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which have historically played key roles in mediating ceasefires and de-escalation efforts.

For India, this resurgence of violence presents a complex diplomatic challenge. As a long-standing supporter of Palestinian statehood and a key economic and strategic partner of Israel, India must carefully navigate its position to avoid alienating either side. India continues to advocate for a two-state solution as the only viable path to a just and lasting peace, while actively engaging both parties to promote dialogue and de-escalation. Balancing these competing interests will be critical for maintaining India’s credibility as a principled and pragmatic actor in West Asian geopolitics.

Gaza & West Bank: Escalating Violence and Humanitarian Crisis

The escalation of violence in Gaza has intensified the already dire humanitarian crisis, exacerbating the vulnerability of civilians in the region. Israeli airstrikes have focussed on Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets, employing advanced missile systems that have significantly impacted densely populated areas such as Gaza City and Rafah. The scale of destruction and civilian casualties has been substantial. Arabic news outlets, including Al Jazeera and Al Mayadeen, have provided in-depth reports on the severity of the bombardments. These military actions highlight Israel’s strategic prioritisation of weakening militant capabilities, but they also underline the inherent risks of targeting non-military infrastructure in densely populated urban centres, contributing to a rising civilian toll.

The humanitarian situation has reached a critical juncture, with Gaza’s health infrastructure essentially collapsing under the weight of the ongoing conflict. According to Al-Arabiya, hospitals are overwhelmed, and essential medical supplies, including life-saving resources such as oxygen, blood, and medicine, have been depleted. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued stark warnings about the potential outbreak of preventable diseases, exacerbated by the region's severe water and sanitation deficiencies. This speaks to the broader, systemic impacts of Israel’s military strategy, which, while focussed on strategic objectives, has resulted in significant collateral damage to civilian life and infrastructure.

On the diplomatic front, efforts to secure a ceasefire have largely been unsuccessful, underscoring the entrenched nature of the conflict. The United Nations and the Arab League have repeatedly called for a halt to the violence, but key obstacles remain unresolved. The primary sticking point remains Israel’s insistence on the demilitarisation of Gaza, a condition that Hamas has rejected as incompatible with Palestinian sovereignty and national identity. This fundamental impasse illustrates the challenges of finding common ground in a conflict where both sides maintain irreconcilable demands. Furthermore, the growing division within the Arab world, as reported by Al Jazeera, complicates efforts to present a unified diplomatic front. The normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab states under the Abraham Accords has introduced new geopolitical dynamics, leaving the Arab League increasingly fragmented in its approach to the Palestinian issue. The normalisation process has, in effect, diluted the Arab League’s capacity to assert itself as a cohesive actor in the resolution of the Gaza crisis. Moreover, diplomatic deadlock creates a multifaceted crisis that is unlikely to resolve without substantial shifts in both regional political dynamics and international intervention strategies. The deepening rift within the Arab world further complicates diplomatic efforts, signalling a more fragmented and unpredictable regional response to the Palestinian struggle.

Yemen: The Humanitarian Catastrophe Deepens

The conflict in Yemen has shown no signs of abating, with airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition continuing to target Houthi-controlled areas. These airstrikes focussed on key military and logistical hubs in Sana’a, Hodeidah, and Taiz, as well as civilian infrastructure, compounding the dire humanitarian situation. According to Al-Hayat and Al-Masdar Online, the Houthis retaliated by launching missiles at Saudi and UAE positions, including attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the Red Sea, and extending their strikes into the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route. The continued military engagement has highlighted the protracted nature of the conflict, with both sides locked in an escalation of hostilities that shows no immediate prospect of resolution.

The civilian toll has been devastating, with more than 300 deaths reported in April alone due to the ongoing airstrikes, as reported by Al Jazeera. The continuing violence has exacerbated Yemen’s already severe humanitarian crisis, with over 80% of the population reliant on humanitarian aid. The disruption of vital services, the destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of healthcare facilities continue to strain the country’s capacity to address the needs of its population. As the conflict rages on, it further entrenches the humanitarian emergency, with millions of Yemenis facing displacement, food insecurity, and inadequate access to medical care.

Peace talks, despite being facilitated by the United Nations and international stakeholders, have made minimal progress, largely due to the intransigence of both sides. The Houthis have expressed a willingness to negotiate, but their refusal to halt missile and drone attacks has complicated efforts to achieve meaningful dialogue. Conversely, the Saudi-led coalition’s ongoing airstrikes have further undermined any potential for a diplomatic breakthrough. As reported by Al-Masdar Online and Al-Hayat, the absence of significant concessions from either side has led to a stagnation in peace talks, leaving the prospects for an immediate ceasefire or resolution increasingly remote.

The involvement of external powers has also added layers of complexity to the conflict. While the U.S. has reduced its direct involvement, its support for Saudi Arabia remains a significant factor in the ongoing military campaign. Simultaneously, Iran’s continued backing of the Houthis further exacerbates the proxy nature of the war, shifting the balance of power and introducing a layer of regional geopolitical rivalry into the conflict. Al-Monitor has reported that this international dimension, particularly the U.S.-Saudi relationship and Iran’s support for the Houthis, continues to prolong the conflict, with each external actor pursuing its strategic interests rather than prioritising a peaceful resolution. The complexity of the situation, marked by regional rivalries and entrenched positions, ensures that the path to peace remains elusive, with no clear resolution in sight.

Iran: Nuclear Talks and Regional Tensions

Iran and the United States resumed their nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman, with both parties describing the discussions as "positive but difficult." As reported by Al-Hayat and Al Sharq Al-Awsat, Iran is steadfast in its demand for full sanctions relief in exchange for its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), while the U.S. is insistent on transparency and verification measures to ensure Iran’s adherence to the agreement. The talks represent a critical juncture in the ongoing efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, yet the negotiations are entangled by deep-rooted issues that have hindered progress over the years.

The most contentious issue in the talks remains Iran’s missile development programme, which has sparked significant concern not only in the U.S. but also in Israel. Al-Monitor has reported that the U.S. is pressing for Iran to abandon its ballistic missile programme, arguing that it undermines regional stability and could further destabilise the security architecture in the Middle East. However, Iran has maintained that its missile programme is a crucial component of its national defence strategy, with no intention of abandoning it. This divergence in priorities reflects a fundamental gap between the two sides, one centred on regional security concerns and the other on preserving sovereign defence capabilities. The stalemate over this issue has heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, particularly in light of Israel’s repeated warnings that it may resort to unilateral military action if Iran’s nuclear capabilities reach a critical threshold.

In addition to nuclear tensions, Iran’s increasing influence in regional conflicts, particularly in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, has contributed to growing tensions across West Asia. Al-Akhbar reports that Iran’s involvement in these countries has been a source of significant anxiety for its Arab neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, which views Iran’s regional ambitions as a direct and existential threat to its security and regional influence. Iran’s strategic positioning in Syria, its support for militias in Iraq, and its backing of the Houthis in Yemen are seen as part of a broader effort to reshape the regional order in its favour. This growing influence has triggered a balancing response from the Gulf states, which have increasingly aligned themselves with the U.S. and Israel in opposition to Iran's regional policies.

These regional dynamics, coupled with the unresolved nuclear issue, suggest that the path to a comprehensive agreement remains fraught with challenges, with the potential for further escalation should these issues remain unaddressed.

Saudi Arabia: Shifting Alliances and Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia made notable strides in advancing its Vision 2030, particularly in its ongoing efforts to diversify its economy away from oil dependency. According to Asharq Al-Awsat and Al-Iqtisadiah, the Kingdom has intensified investments in non-oil sectors such as tourism, entertainment, and technology, marking a shift towards broader economic transformation. The establishment of Saudi Arabia as a regional hub for tech startups is a key indicator of this transition, with the government’s focus on creating an ecosystem conducive to innovation. These efforts reflect Saudi Arabia’s broader strategy to reduce its reliance on oil revenues and foster sustainable growth across various sectors.

The ambitious NEOM project, a high-profile initiative aimed at building a futuristic city, also garnered significant attention in April. Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reported that NEOM attracted substantial foreign investments, particularly from technology giants, further reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s commitment to becoming a leader in cutting-edge technology and renewable energy. This project, which envisions a city powered by sustainable energy and technological innovation, is a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia's diversification plan. It is emblematic of the Kingdom's drive to position itself at the forefront of the global transition towards a green economy, as it seeks to establish itself as a hub for innovation and futuristic living.

Saudi Arabia’s regional diplomatic role has also seen notable shifts in recent months. As reported by Al Arabiya, the Kingdom is increasingly positioning itself as a regional mediator, particularly in ongoing tensions between Israel and Palestine, as well as in the conflict in Yemen. The country’s growing diplomatic ties with Iran, particularly through back-channel talks, signal a strategic shift towards more cooperative efforts in regional geopolitics. This evolving role underscores Saudi Arabia's ambition to be a stabilising force in the Middle East, engaging in more nuanced diplomacy to manage complex regional conflicts and influence geopolitical outcomes.

However, despite these positive developments, the broader economic outlook for the WANA region remains challenging. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded its growth forecast for the region to 2.6% for 2025, down from a previous projection of 4%. This revision, as noted by Al-Iqtisadiah and Al-Monitor, reflects ongoing instability in global oil prices, trade disruptions, and the economic challenges posed by the global shift towards renewable energy. Despite efforts to diversify, many countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, remain heavily reliant on oil revenues. Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported that regional leaders are increasingly concerned about the long-term effects of global energy transitions on their economies, especially as oil-dependent states look for ways to maintain fiscal stability while adapting to a rapidly changing energy landscape.

Iran-Saudi Thaw: Strategic Realignment or Tactical Pause

The recent thaw in Iran-Saudi relations, catalysed by the 2023 China-brokered normalisation deal, represents a potentially transformative moment in West Asian geopolitics. Diplomatic ties have been formally restored, with embassies reopening and direct flights resuming, signalling a cautious but notable shift towards cooperation. This rapprochement marks a significant departure from the longstanding hostility that has characterised the relationship between the two regional powers, which have historically found themselves on opposing sides of numerous regional conflicts. The early signs of economic collaboration, particularly in the energy sector, are emerging as a focal point in this realignment. Both sides have expressed interest in joint investments in petrochemical projects and renewable energy, aligning with broader efforts to diversify their economies in response to the global energy transition.

However, the sustainability of this diplomatic thaw remains uncertain. Deep-seated rivalries over regional influence continue to pose significant challenges. The ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, where both Tehran and Riyadh back opposing factions, serve as critical fault lines that could strain this fragile détente. Despite the promising optics of restored diplomatic ties, the fundamental strategic differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia over regional hegemony remain largely unresolved. The durability of this rapprochement will depend on each side’s willingness to compromise on core strategic interests, which historically have been sources of deep mistrust and rivalry.

For India, this emerging alignment presents both opportunities and challenges. As a major energy importer with deep strategic interests in both the Gulf and broader West Asia, India stands to benefit from reduced regional tensions. The stabilisation of relations between Tehran and Riyadh could enhance energy security, reduce regional supply disruptions, and create new avenues for economic cooperation. India should proactively engage in Track II dialogues and economic forums to leverage its historical ties with both Riyadh and Tehran. This engagement could help secure stable energy supplies and support India’s broader strategic objectives in the region, including connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and energy corridors that are vital for India’s long-term economic interests.

Explosion in Iran and Fire in Israel: Heightened Security Risk

The recent explosion at a major industrial site in Iran on April 28, 2025, has highlighted the persistent security vulnerabilities facing the region. The blast resulted in multiple casualties and significant damage to critical infrastructure, raising serious concerns about the resilience of Iran’s industrial sector amid heightened geopolitical tensions. While Iranian authorities have yet to officially confirm the cause, initial reports have fuelled speculation of possible sabotage, potentially linked to broader regional rivalries and ongoing covert operations. Such incidents underscore the fragility of Iran’s critical infrastructure, which remains exposed to both internal and external threats, including cyberattacks and targeted strikes.

Meanwhile, a major fire in central Israel on April 30, 2025, has added to the region’s security challenges. The blaze, which disrupted daily life and required extensive emergency response efforts, serves as a stark reminder of the region’s ongoing vulnerability to sudden crises. This incident not only underscores the physical security risks but also highlights the complexities of crisis management in a volatile environment marked by ongoing political instability and escalating tensions.

For India, these incidents carry important strategic implications. As a major energy importer with deep economic ties to the region, India remains highly exposed to disruptions in West Asia’s critical infrastructure. The potential for sudden, destabilising events that could impact energy supplies or critical maritime routes necessitates a proactive approach to risk management. India should prioritise the diversification of its energy sources, strengthen strategic oil reserves, and invest in resilient supply chains to mitigate the risks associated with regional instability. Additionally, India’s engagement with West Asian partners should include enhanced cooperation on cyber defence and critical infrastructure protection, recognising the growing importance of these domains in the context of modern security challenges.

Economic Outlook: WANA's Economic Challenges

The economic outlook for the WANA (West Asia and North Africa) region has become increasingly uncertain, as reflected in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) decision to downgrade its growth forecast for 2025 to 2.6%, down from the previously projected 4%. As reported by Al-Iqtisadiah and Al-Monitor, this revision underscores the region's vulnerabilities, primarily stemming from ongoing instability in global oil prices, trade disruptions, and the broader economic challenges posed by the global shift toward renewable energy. The WANA region's continued dependence on oil revenue remains a significant challenge, and the diversification efforts seen in several countries, while noteworthy, have yet to significantly reduce reliance on the oil sector.

Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, which have historically depended on oil for a substantial portion of their national income, are grappling with the financial pressures of an uncertain energy market. Al-Quds Al-Arabi reports that the region’s leadership is increasingly concerned about the long-term effects of the global energy transition on their economies. The push toward cleaner, renewable energy sources, coupled with efforts to decarbonize global industries, has created a complex environment for oil-dependent nations. Despite the strategic diversification initiatives such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the region remains exposed to fluctuations in oil prices, which continue to play a dominant role in shaping economic outcomes.

The prospects for economic stabilisation and growth in the WANA region are further complicated by the global transition away from fossil fuels. While there have been efforts to diversify into sectors like tourism, technology, and renewable energy, these sectors are still in their infancy and cannot yet offset the region’s dependence on oil. Additionally, trade disruptions, both regional and global, continue to exacerbate the economic pressures faced by these countries, complicating their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape.

The economic challenges facing the WANA region are multi-faceted and deeply rooted in its reliance on oil revenues. The IMF’s revised growth forecast reflects the broader global shifts that are impacting oil-dependent economies. As the region grapples with the financial consequences of a global energy transition, the ability of countries within WANA to effectively diversify their economies and navigate trade disruptions will be crucial to their long-term economic stability and growth.

(With inputs by Dr. Farah Shahin)