Abstract:

Hectic diplomatic activity occurred in the region as the ongoing conflicts and regional contestations continued apace. From India’s perspective as well the Indian decisive response, for dastardly terrorist attacks in Pahalgam, against the Pakistan based nine terror outfits was appreciated with condemnation of terror but calls for ceasefire and dialogue and diplomacy became louder. Regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran indulged in shuttle diplomacy while several other leaders conducted telephonic conversations. Israel fully supported and backed Op Sindoor.

As usual Pakistan found its friends in Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Malaysia which favoured them blindly. Pakistan also currently in the UNSC as a non-permanent member hence, the Press statement issued by UNSC was somewhat diluted because of the Sino-Pak axis there. Israel stood in full support with India including in the ‘OP Sindoor’ and beyond where as many of our other partners quietly assured India of their support in actions as deemed appropriate. A public furore in India against the Turkish stance led to cancellation of various contracts, travel and trade got impacted. Indian Vice President Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar made a big statement amid calls for boycotts on Turkey & Azerbaijan ‘We no longer can afford, by travel or import, to improve economies of countries that are against our national interest. Those countries, in times of crisis, are positioned against us’.

Syrian leader Al Sharaa continued to reap the benefit of his diplomatic outreach. He also visited Türkiye. Meanwhile, the World Bank confirmed that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have paid off Syria's outstanding debt enabling its participation in the Bretton woods institutions. President Trump’s visit to Riyadh also created a windfall of legitimacy for Al Sharaa when courtesy Saudis he met Trump who eulogised him as the personal bounty over him was removed. The UAE is also joining Germany in printing currency for Syria. #Syria's first deal with #China sealed through an MoU between the Land & Sea Port Authority & a Chinese firm to invest in the Hasiyah Industrial Zone in #Homs & (2) the Adra Zone outside #Damascus.

Iran is prepared to eliminate its stockpile of highly enriched uranium if sanctions are lifted, Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to the Supreme Leader, told NBC. Of course, the discussions on nuclear deal between US Special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi were carried out in-directly despite vertical differences on enrichment issue. Foreign ministers of #Iran, #Oman and #Qatar met trilaterally in Tehran to discuss a range of issues including the talks with the US. This meeting followed the recent visit by the US President Trump to the region
After Trump’s tour, Putin invited Arab leaders to Russia-Arab Summit on Oct 15.

An Arab summit was held in Baghdad where Palestine issue and plight of Gazans was accorded high priority. Several European countries including UK and France have been talking of recognising state of Palestine at the upcoming Summit which had to be postponed. Meanwhile, Spanish PM attended the Arab Summit in Baghdad and his participation in a summit focussed primarily on Gaza underscored Spain’s role in regional diplomacy and its push for ending the conflict and establishing a Palestinian state. Stating that “Palestine is bleeding before our eyes. What is unfolding in Gaza and the West Bank cannot go unnoticed – whether in Europe or anywhere else in the world.” “The desire to redraw the map of the Middle East by force will only summon the nightmares of the past,” added the socialist PM, one of Europe’s most vocal critics of Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza.

The leaders of Britain, France and Canada condemned Israel's "egregious actions" in Gaza and warned of joint action if it did not halt. UK suspended free trade agreement negotiations with Israel over the expansion of the war in Gaza. Israeli ambassador was summoned to the foreign office. German Chancellor also criticised Israel over Gaza and the ensuing humanitarian crisis. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said it clearly: “Don’t trade with genocidal states.” “I applaud the United Kingdom for taking a dignified stand against genocide. Now, Colombia calls on all of Latin America to denounce free trade agreements with Israel. Don’t trade with genocidal states.” Malta’s Prime Minister Robert Abela has announced that his country will officially recognise the State of Palestine next month amid Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza. Even President Trump has reportedly warned Israel that continued military operations in Gaza could jeopardize American support.

ASEAN-GCC-China

Leaders from the Middle East and Southeast Asia held their second summit in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur. The two regional blocs, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), will also hold another trilateral meeting that includes China for the first time as world regions start to hedge their bets in a more geopolitically unpredictable world.

India

Major diplomatic win for India at OIC meet in Jakarta. Indonesia, Egypt & Bahrain blocked Pakistan’s anti-India proposal on Kashmir.
he 20th India-Iran Joint Commission Meeting (JCM) was held in New Delhi on 8 May 2025. The meeting was co-chaired by Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India, and Dr. Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran. Apart from discussing the whole spectrum of bilateral and regional and global issues, the Indian side briefed the Iranian delegation on the cross-border linkages of the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. Both sides strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and called for enhanced regional cooperation to combat the threat. FM Araghchi also called on Hon’ble President of India and NSA. Iran had offered to play a constructive role in diffusing Indo-Pak conflict pursuant to Pahalgam terror attacks by Pakistan supported groups.

On May 19 Mr. Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of #India, held a telephone conversation with Dr. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of #Iran and representative of the Supreme Leader. During the call, Mr. Doval emphasized Iran’s constructive role in the region and expressed India’s interest in expanding bilateral cooperation—particularly in the development of Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). He also thanked Iran for its continued assistance and support.

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Closure of Al-Awda Hospital Deepens Gaza’s Humanitarian Collapse and Raises Legal Alarms

The closure of Al-Awda Hospital on June 3, following Israeli evacuation orders issued in late May, marks a catastrophic escalation in the Gaza humanitarian crisis. As the last functioning hospital in North Gaza, Al-Awda’s shutdown under military pressure forced patients and medical staff to flee under threats of “lethal consequences,” leaving tens of thousands without emergency care.

This occurrence signifies a significant decline in the humanitarian conditions in Gaza, eliciting profound international condemnation and legal apprehension. The siege has left North Gaza devoid of operational facilities, cutting off emergency medical assistance for tens of thousands of Palestinians. The Israeli military authorities concurrently issued evacuation orders for four additional regions, thereby relocating thousands more into congested and inadequately resourced locations. The closures transpired during intensified military operations, indicating a systematic approach to depopulation and territorial clearance under the pretext of security issues.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) denounced the coerced closure and reminded all parties that medical facilities are safeguarded by international humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions. The hospital's closure is not an isolated event but rather part of a larger trend. Since late May 2025, Israel has intensified aerial and terrestrial operations throughout northern Gaza, consistently targeting what it characterises as Hamas strongholds situated within civilian areas.

Displaced civilians are currently experiencing deteriorating health outcomes. In the absence of emergency surgeries, trauma units, or fundamental medical treatment, there is a notable increase in reports of untreated wounds, infections, obstetric problems, and infant malnutrition. International human rights organisations, including Médecins Sans Frontières and Human Rights Watch, have demanded an immediate independent inquiry into Israel's assault on medical infrastructure. Legal academics contend that the closing of Al-Awda may constitute a war crime, contingent upon demonstrating that the hospital was not utilised for military purposes- a burden of proof incumbent upon the occupying force under international law.

The timing of the closure, merely days prior to the UN Human Rights Council's emergency session on Gaza set on June 10, indicates that Israel may encounter increased diplomatic isolation. Regional countries, such as Jordan, Egypt, and Qatar, have advocated for the prompt establishment of humanitarian corridors and are campaigning for a resolution that incorporates international protective measures for Gaza's healthcare facilities.

The shutdown of Al-Awda Hospital is a humanitarian disaster and a significant legal turning point in the continuing Israel–Gaza conflict. It has transformed North Gaza into a total medical void, aggravating civilian distress, and has prepared the ground for heightened legal examination and international scrutiny.

Saudi Arabia to Iran: Return to Nuclear Talks or Risk Israeli Military Response

In a significant diplomatic development, Saudi Arabia has reportedly warned Iran to engage seriously with ongoing nuclear negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration or risk facing a possible Israeli military strike. According to Saudi newspaper Akhbar al-Khaleej, dated 18th April, 2025, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman made a visit to Tehran in April 2025, where he conveyed this message directly to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior Iranian officials. This move is seen as part of Saudi Arabia’s broader efforts to prevent a regional military escalation and maintain the relative stability achieved after the 2023 in Saudi–Iranian relations.

The Saudi warning was couched in diplomatic language but carried a clear implication: a failure to reach an agreement with the United States could provoke unilateral Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Saudi Arabia stressed that it would not allow its territory to be used for any military operations against Iran, attempting to assure Tehran of its neutrality while simultaneously encouraging de-escalation. At the same time, Riyadh urged Iran to moderate its regional behaviour and military posturing, which have long been sources of tension with its Gulf neighbours and Israel.

Iran, on its part, responded with cautious interest. Iranian officials acknowledged the economic and strategic importance of lifting sanctions and unfreezing assets that could follow a renewed nuclear deal. However, Tehran remains wary of the Trump administration’s intentions, particularly the push for stricter limitations on uranium enrichment and Iran’s overall nuclear capabilities. The shadow of the United States’ 2018 withdrawal from the original JCPOA agreement under Trump still looms large over Iran’s calculations.

The broader context of this diplomatic push reflects evolving dynamics in West Asia. Saudi Arabia, traditionally aligned with the West and a rival of Iran, is increasingly assuming the role of a regional stabiliser and mediator. This role was consolidated after the China-brokered normalisation of ties with Iran in 2023. Now, by leveraging its restored relationship with Tehran, Riyadh seeks to influence Iranian policy in ways that avoid another regional war.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to express strong concerns about Iran’s nuclear trajectory and has not ruled out taking military action if diplomacy fails. Saudi Arabia’s intervention appears to be motivated by a desire to forestall such a scenario, recognising that an Israeli strike could destabilise the entire Gulf region and jeopardise recent economic and diplomatic gains. This underscores a complex triangular dynamic involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel, with the United States playing a pivotal but unpredictable role.

Iran–Pakistan Convergence: A New Chapter in Regional Geopolitics

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s recent visit to Tehran marks a significant shift in Islamabad’s foreign policy at a time when its traditional alliances are under strain. As geopolitical tensions escalate between Pakistan and India, and as New Delhi deepens strategic ties with Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Pakistan appears to be recalibrating its regional partnerships. Iran is emerging as a crucial partner due to its geostrategic location, vast energy reserves, and shared regional security concerns.

The recent conflict between Pakistan and India has once again shown that the balance of power in the region is changing, and Islamabad cannot count on the unwavering support of some of its traditional allies, such as the US, as it used to. On the other hand, the significant increase in India’s economic and security cooperation with countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain has forced Pakistan to reconsider its regional priorities. Meanwhile, Iran, with its unique geostrategic location, energy capabilities, and security commonalities with Pakistan, could become an important partner in the new equations for this country.

The visit highlights a growing political alignment between Tehran and Islamabad, especially on key Muslim world issues such as the Palestinian cause. Both countries strongly oppose the Israeli occupation and normalisation of ties with Tel Aviv position that distinguishes them from several Arab states. During the visit, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei praised Pakistan’s consistent stance on Palestine, underscoring the shared ideological and diplomatic ground between the two nations. Pakistan’s earlier decision not to join the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen further illustrates its willingness to align with Iran on critical regional issues despite pressure from its traditional allies.

Economically, the two countries aim to expand cooperation, particularly in the areas of trade, transit, and energy. With bilateral trade currently valued at around $3 billion, both sides have set a goal of reaching $10 billion. As founding members of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), they see these platforms as useful frameworks for promoting regional integration. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links Iran with Russia, Central Asia, and potentially India, is seen as a strategic project that could also connect with Pakistan’s own transit networks, thereby enhancing regional connectivity and economic resilience.

In the energy sector, Iran’s Peace Pipeline project—designed to supply natural gas to Pakistan-remains a major opportunity, though it has been hindered by Western sanctions. If geopolitical conditions allow, the project could significantly alleviate Pakistan’s energy shortages while strengthening bilateral economic ties.

Overall, Sharif’s Tehran visit signals a potential turning point in Iran–Pakistan relations. It should be seen as a step that could be the beginning of strengthening bilateral cooperation in the areas of security, energy, and transit, and indicates Pakistan’s desire to diversify its partners in a situation where the region’s geopolitics are rapidly changing.

Israel-Yemen Crisis

The ongoing tensions between Israel and the Houthi forces in Yemen reached a new and dangerous level in May 2025, with unprecedented military escalations that underscored the complexity of West Asia’s geopolitical entanglements. The crisis deepened on May 4, when the Houthi militia, backed by Iran, launched a hypersonic ballistic missile targeting Ben-Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. This marked the first time a Houthi missile had successfully reached near Israel’s primary international gateway, causing structural damage and injuring at least eight civilians. The attack disrupted commercial air traffic as international carriers suspended or rerouted flights. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree took direct responsibility for the attack, terming it a response to Israel's continued aggression in Gaza and the Red Sea

Israel's response came swiftly. On May 5 and 6, the Israeli Air Force launched targeted airstrikes against Houthi-held infrastructure in Yemen, specifically hitting Sanaa International Airport and the Hodeidah port. These strikes reportedly killed at least eight people and injured close to 90. The strikes were part of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant described as necessary military action against a direct threat to Israeli sovereignty. They issued stern warnings that more such actions could follow, not ruling out strikes deeper into the Axis of Resistance, a term often used to describe Iran and its regional allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis.

The missile attack and Israel’s retaliation occurred against the backdrop of ongoing maritime tensions in the Red Sea. Despite the ceasefire agreement brokered earlier this year between the United States and the Houthis, which was announced by Oman and designed to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping, the Houthis continued their missile and drone operations targeting Israeli interests. However, marine traffic had somewhat recovered by early June, with EU sources reporting a 60 per cent increase in shipping traffic, rising to 36–37 vessels daily.

The deeper geopolitical context is shaped by Iran’s strategic support for the Houthis, which has grown significantly in terms of weapon systems, intelligence sharing, and operational guidance. The missile that struck near Tel Aviv represents a technological advancement in the Houthis’ military capabilities, likely facilitated by Iran. Tehran continues to see the Houthis as a central component of its “Axis of Resistance,” alongside Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. These alliances have allowed Tehran to exert influence and maintain strategic depth across the region without direct engagement

The Yemen–Israel recent crisis has emerged as a potent flashpoint within the broader West Asian conflict landscape. The Houthis’ expanding operational reach, enabled by Iranian support, now threatens Israeli security directly. In turn, Israel’s retaliatory actions in Yemen risk dragging an already devastated state deeper into the region’s web of proxy wars.

Political Crackdown in Turkey – Targeting of CHP Leadership and Implications for Democracy

Turkish government intensified a sustained legal campaign against the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP), arresting and suspending multiple elected officials. These actions, framed by authorities as part of anti-corruption efforts, are perceived by critics as a politically motivated crackdown aimed at disempowering urban-based opposition forces. The campaign has raised serious concerns over the ‘decline’ of democratic norms and judicial independence under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration.

The most recent developments include the suspension and pretrial detention of five CHP mayors—three in Istanbul and two in Adana—on charges of bribery and extortion. These arrests bring the number of CHP mayors removed from office since March 2025 to at least eleven. In addition, Turkish prosecutors launched a legal investigation against CHP leader Özgür Özel for allegedly threatening and insulting the Istanbul chief public prosecutor. This came after Özel publicly denounced the legal measures as a “judicial coup” against democratically elected officials, accusing the judiciary of acting as an instrument of political repression.

The crackdown follows a pattern of legal actions that began with the high-profile arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in March on corruption allegations. Since then, there have been multiple waves of arrests. Notably, in late May, Turkish authorities detained approximately thirty individuals linked to the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, including a former MP and three district mayors, again citing corruption. These moves are seen as part of a broader strategy to dismantle opposition strongholds in urban areas, where the CHP gained considerable influence in recent municipal elections.

The recent events in Turkey underscore a troubling pattern that signals a deepening crisis within the country’s democratic framework. The strategic use of judicial mechanisms to arrest, suspend, or legally intimidate members of the opposition, particularly those affiliated with the Republican People’s Party (CHP), is not merely a domestic legal issue but rather a manifestation of institutional decay and political authoritarianism.

This wave of actions reflects more than isolated corruption probes; it constitutes a systemic effort to delegitimize and dismantle opposition power structures, particularly in municipalities where the ruling party has lost political ground. The removal of elected mayors, detention of prominent opposition leaders, and the criminalisation of political dissent collectively contribute to a shrinking democratic space. These developments are especially alarming in the context of Turkey's recent history, where democratic institutions have progressively been hollowed out under the guise of national security or anti-corruption campaigns.

Israel Blocks Planned Ramallah Visit by Arab Foreign Ministers, Spark Tensions Ahead of Statehood Conference

In a move that has heightened regional tensions, Israel prevented a delegation of Arab foreign ministers, representing Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey, from entering Ramallah in the occupied West Bank. The ministers had planned to meet with Palestinian representatives to discuss advancing international recognition of a Palestinian state ahead of a major conference scheduled in New York from 17–20 June 2025

An Israeli official dismissed the planned meeting as “provocative,” asserting that the proposed discussion on Palestinian statehood posed a threat to Israeli security. The official warned that such efforts could enable the emergence of what he called “a terrorist state in the heart of the land of Israel” and thus would not receive Israeli cooperation. The decision followed closely on the heels of Israel's announcement of its largest West Bank settlement expansion in years, a move widely interpreted as undercutting the prospects for a two-state solution. Jordan’s foreign ministry described Israel’s refusal to allow the ministers’ entry as “a clear breach of Israel’s obligations as an occupying power”

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan strongly denounced Israel’s decision to block a planned diplomatic visit to Ramallah, describing it as “extremism and a rejection of peace.” He urged the international community to reaffirm its commitment to the two-state solution. The move drew immediate criticism from key international players. France, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations- all co-sponsors of the upcoming New York conference on Palestinian statehood- stressed the urgent need for recognition and meaningful support for the Palestinian cause. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed this sentiment, calling the recognition of a Palestinian state both “a moral duty and a political necessity.” Speaking at a joint press briefing with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Macron warned that the ongoing humanitarian blockade had created an unsustainable situation on the ground. He further signalled that France may consider imposing sanctions on Israeli settlers if Israel fails to respond appropriately in the coming days. In response, Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed Macron’s remarks, stating bluntly that “the facts do not interest Macron,” underscoring the widening rift between Israel and its Western allies over the escalating crisis.

The diplomatic standoff over the blocked West Bank visit reflects a broader collapse of trust between Israel and key international stakeholders. With growing calls for accountability and the prospect of punitive measures on the horizon, Israel now faces increased international scrutiny amid its deepening isolation over the Palestinian issue.
(With inputs by Dr. Farah Shahin)