National Security Volume VIII Issue II | April - June 2025

June 24 , 2025 Views: 191 Comments: 0

About the issue

With the return of Donald J. Trump to the presidency of the United States, this special issue of the National Security journal undertakes a timely and critical examination of the potential trajectories of U.S. foreign policy under his second administration. The issue consists of essays and articles written in the immediate aftermath of Trump's inauguration by some of India’s leading strategic thinkers and eminent scholars.

Arvind Gupta, in his essay analyses US-Russia relations under Trump 2.0 and concludes that the bilateral relations are heading for a reset under Trump. This will have a major impact on the global situation, the author notes. Among other important observations, Srikanth Kondapalli, in his article concludes that Trump will restructure US-China relations on issues such as trade, tariffs, technology and Taiwan. It will resist the US on these issues. But uncontrolled escalation will harm both sides. It is to be seen whether the two superpowers will reach a modus vivendi. Prerna Gandhi, in her article posits that Japan, which faces a highly uncertain security environment, may be compelled to look beyond the US and diversify its relations with countries in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

In another contribution, Shreya Sinha, explores the impact of Trump’s policies on the transatlantic alliance, the linchpin of the European security structure. The article points out that with the security and economic foundation of US-European relations badly shaken by Trump, Europe is in a quandary about how to recast its policies while retaining its strategic autonomy. Anil Trigunayat in his essay examines Trump’s impact on the West Asian dynamics. Arun K. Singh, Chintamani Mahapatra, Mukesh Aghi and Sanjay Chadha in their respective essays and articles examine the different aspects of the relationship, taking a cautiously optimistic view of the prospects of India-US relations under Trump 2.0. Asoke Mukerji, on the other hand, analyses in detail the Indian position on the Ukraine issue which has been often misunderstood in the West. Clarifying the logic of India’s position, the author asserts in his article that India’s approach to the Ukraine conflict relies on the primacy of diplomacy and dialogue to ensure that this is “not an era of war.”

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CONTENTS: Volume VIII Issue II | April - June 2025

Abstract: India’s response to the Ukraine conflict, asserting the primary role of diplomacy and dialogue to ensure that this is “not an era of war”, is directly related to India’s goal of becoming a developed country by 2047 (Viksit Bharat). In systemic terms, the Ukraine conflict has illustrated the ineffectiveness of existing regional and multilateral treaty bodies, such as the OSCE and UNSC, in ensuring peace and security through diplomacy. Such conflicts have encouraged a process of international fragmentation driven by the unilateral use of military and economic measures. The effective resolution of ongoing conflicts requires proactive diplomatic initiatives by India for a major review of multilateralism. The three Voice of the Global South Summits convened by India since 2023 have endorsed the call for “reformed multilateralism”, prioritising a “human-centric” approach. This must be the focus of convening a UN General Conference marking the 80th anniversary of the UN in 2025.

Adaptation or Resistance? China-United States Relations Under Trump 2.0 |Srikanth Kondapalli

Abstract: The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025 has major implications for bilateral relations with China, besides other countries. Both are the world’s largest economies, UN Security Council members, nuclear powers and have heft in regional and global orders. Four decades of “engagement cooperation” policies since President Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972 led to a consensus on the rise of China, stability in Taiwan Straits and nullifying Soviet challenge. While the US wants to retain its primacy, China announced in 2017 that it wants to occupy the “centre stage” leading to the “Thucydides Trap” – and acknowledged by both sides. It permeates bilateral relations, given the perception that China is “catching up” and “surpassing” the US’ comprehensive national power.

Trump’s first term witnessed tariff frictions on a major scale for the first time in bilateral relations, in addition to continuing tensions in the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific, the Global Commons and other areas. Trump rechristened the Asia-Pacific as Indo-Pacific in November 2017, triggering the revival of the QUAD. President Biden’s responses included “decoupling”, “small yard, high fence”, sanctions on Chinese companies and banning semi-conductor sales as well as continuing with levelling of tariffs. Trump 2.0 is expected to upend relations with China, barring the latter’s investments in the US and other tactical adjustments. It is argued in this article that while several similarities exist in mutual responses for the past decade, Trump 2.0 is poised to restructure bilateral relations further between the US and China with high stakes involved for both parties. By reflecting on issues such as diplomacy, trade and tariffs, Taiwan, technology, nuclear, Indo-Pacific and other issues, we argue that China is likely to resist the US on several of these issues.

Tracing the Trajectory of Transatlantic Ties: Dealing with Trump 2.0 | Shreya Sinha

Abstract: Trump 2.0 is seen as Europe’s biggest challenge with a potential to cause an upheaval across the Atlantic, while radically revisiting the transatlantic stance on support for Ukraine and engagement with NATO, European economy and trade issues, the China factor and diplomatic engagement. This paper attempts to trace the trajectory of transatlantic relations while critically assessing Trump’s hyperbolic nationalism and its implications for Europe. The first part of this paper examines its impact on the European security architecture while discussing the ramifications on Ukrainian security in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump’s potential withdrawal from NATO and the weakening of transatlantic security cooperation. The second part of the paper maps Europe’s economic apocalypse in light of Trump’s tariffs and the great power competition between the United States and China. The third part of the paper critically analyses Trump’s global diplomacy and the European Union’s need for strengthening its strategic autonomy.

US-Japan Relations Under Trump 2.0 | Prerna Gandhi

Abstract: The US-Japan alliance has evolved beyond its traditional bilateral security framework to encompass regional and global strategic cooperation. Since the 2015 revision of defense guidelines, Japan has assumed a more proactive security role, deepening trilateral partnerships with South Korea and the Philippines while engaging in AUKUS-related defense initiatives. Under a second Trump administration, Japan faces increased pressure to expand its defense contributions, enhance counterstrike capabilities, and assume greater financial responsibility for the alliance. However, Trump's transactional approach and protectionist economic policies could strain economic ties, particularly in trade and technology cooperation. Meanwhile, Japan must navigate growing tensions with China, balancing deterrence with economic interdependence. The shifting US approach to alliances, NATO, and multilateral economic frameworks under Trump may compel Japan to diversify its partnerships with Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Assessing Modi-Trump Summit in Washington | Chintamani Mahapatra

Abstract: Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington, D.C., in February 2025, weeks after the inauguration of President Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, to hold a summit level meeting with him. It was for the first time that any Indian leader could be the official guest in the White House within weeks of the beginning of a new administration. Two issues that prominently surfaced to affect Indo-US relations after Donald Trump’s election victory were India’s tariff rates and illegal immigrants from India. Prime Minister Modi went to Washington with a message that India had already reduced tariff rates on a host of goods exported by the US. During the summit, he also stated that India would receive all verified Indian immigrants who had been illegally staying in the United States. Nonetheless, the mercurial American President appeared provocative on occasions, while Modi deftly dealt with the issues.