Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 08 February - 14 February 2021
Prerna Gandhi, Associate Fellow, VIF
Economic
No matter how you slice the data, the car in your driveway is an emissions asterisk

The International Energy Agency in 2016 estimated that if 50% of all new cars were electric, petroleum use would continue to grow because of “trucks, aviation and the petrochemical industry and we don’t have major alternatives to oil products there.” Exxon Mobil estimated more recently that if all new cars were electric by 2025, and the world’s entire fleet were electric by 2040, liquid-fuel demand in 2040 would be the same as 2013’s. Few talk about it but mining battery-related minerals generates emissions too. An electric car that’s sitting in your garage, not displacing a significant amount of gasoline-powered transportation but still sucking power out of a wall socket, can be a net emissions contributor when all is said and done. Which brings us to another wrinkle. US automakers expect to do well under revamped Obama fuel-economy rules that, yes, have put more EVs on the road. By the EPA’s own calculation, any emissions gains have also been offset five times over by the pickup truck and SUV boom that Team Obama facilitated to ensure a successful auto bailout. Click here to read...

European Banks Use Pandemic to Clean House

European banks are using the pandemic to make changes investors have wanted for years: slash jobs, shut branches and force customers online. Business consulting firm Kearney predicts one-quarter of Europe’s 165,000 bank branches will be gone in three years. Banks are one of Europe’s economic weak links, and they have been slow to change. Compared with U.S. peers, European banks struggle to make enough money to support lending growth. They came into the Covid-19 crisis still digesting a mountain of bad loans from the sovereign-debt crisis that started more than a decade ago. The pandemic injected urgency into the situation. The European Central Bank has leaned on banks to reform and has paved the way for cost-saving mergers. National governments, long resistant to approving bank mergers that would result in job cuts, have changed their tune. Dreary stock-market valuations have spurred CEOs to act. So far, investors remain sceptical about whether the newfound resolve for cutting will be enough. European bank shares have languished for years. Europe’s largest banks, despite having balance sheets on par with U.S. rivals, trade at a fraction of their market value. Click here to read...

AI Emerges as Crucial Tool for Groups Seeking Justice for Syria War Crimes

By most accounts, the Syrian conflict has been the most documented war in history. But that mammoth trove of evidence—millions of videos, photos, social-media posts and satellite imagery—doesn’t easily translate into accountability for crimes committed during the war. So as the United Nations, European authorities and human-rights groups build war-crimes cases, they have turned to a novel tool: artificial intelligence. With the regime of President Bashar al-Assad emerging largely victorious from nearly a decade of conflict, efforts to bring about some measure of accountability are gaining speed, largely in European courts. Now, AI and machine learning could play an integral role in bringing war criminals to justice for Syria by helping to sort through the huge trove of evidence, and serve as a model for investigations into other modern-day conflicts. The technology is aimed at helping process, organize and analyze the data and reduce the time human investigators spend sifting through terabytes of traumatic videos and images. AI algorithms help group videos of the same incident and weed out duplicates or unrelated images. Algorithms are also working on object recognition, finding all data relevant to a specific weapon to help build a case. Click here to read...

How Congress Might Upend Section 230, the Law Big Tech Is Built On

Passed in 1996, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act was explicitly intended to protect and promote America’s then-nascent internet industry. It is the foundational covenant between the state and internet platforms. It goes, roughly, like this: As long as sites aren’t knowingly helping their users commit crimes, what users share on these sites is the users’ own responsibility. Section 230 makes the business models of giants including Facebook and Google possible. It enables countless other businesses, too, such as Airbnb. Much has changed since 1996. Then, there were 36 million people on the internet, most of them in the U.S. Now there are 4.8 billion, including 90% of Americans. And according to a survey by Pew published in July, 72% of U.S. adults say social-media companies have too much power and influence in politics. Given the tech industry’s power to determine what information we consume—and the apparent protection from scrutiny or recourse that Section 230 provides—it’s no wonder a long and bipartisan list of politicians, appointed officials and career bureaucrats are concerned about the law. Click here to read...

Thailand economy shrinks most since 1997 on tourism collapse

Thailand's pandemic-shattered economy suffered its worst full-year performance in more than two decades, data showed Feb 15, with officials citing the toll of both a gutted tourism industry and ongoing political upheaval. Last year's 6.1 per cent contraction was the worst since a 7.6 per cent decline during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and officials said they expect the economy to expand at a much slower pace than initially predicted in 2021. The downgrade - to 2.5 to 3.5 per cent growth from a previous estimate of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent - came despite a slight improvement in the final three months of the year. Some 40 million tourists had been expected to arrive in 2020, but as international travel ground to a trickle, their absence hammered the country's services sector, bruising entertainment, retail, hotels and restaurants. The kingdom's freefalling economy has been a factor in the youth-led protest movement that is calling for premier Prayut Chan-O-Cha's resignation, constitutional reform and changes to the once-untouchable monarchy. Click here to read...

COVID: Bangladesh's textile industry hit hard by pandemic

Global demand for clothing plummeted amid the COVID pandemic and big fashion brands remain reluctant to place big orders, posing a major problem for Bangladesh's vital textile industry. In 2020, textile exports from the South Asian nation dropped by nearly 17%. Shipments to Europe, which is the destination for 60% of Bangladesh's garment exports, recorded a significant decline of just under 19%. There hasn't been any uptick in demand and exports so far this year, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) said. "Apparel exports declined by 5.83% year-over-year in January," Rubana Huq, president of the association, told DW." Based on current scenarios and the global trade or economic outlook, retail sales trends in the West, and the slowdown in order situation by our customers, it appears that exports may continue suffering till the third quarter of this year. "Bangladesh is hugely dependent on the export of textiles for its national income as the industry accounts for more than 80% of overall exports. About 4 million workers are employed by the garment industry, most of them female seamstresses who often support several family members and live from pay check to pay check. Click here to read...

India tariff hikes target mainly China in protectionist drive

The Indian government has raised tariffs on a laundry list of goods in a move that seeks to rebalance trade with China and develop local industry. The changes hike import duties on roughly 30 products at the beginning of the month. The levies on solar lamps and cells are now between 15 and 20% from a previous 5%. Cell phone charging devices, which were tariff free, were slapped with a 10% levy. The affected products span the electronics, automotive, chemicals, leather and agricultural sectors. The intent is to minimize the imports of these goods from China and other countries and to encourage local manufacturing activity, said Devendra Pant, of India Ratings & Research. Printed circuit boards and cameras for cell phones saw duties raised to 2.5% from zero. Duties on compressors for refrigerators and air conditioners have been hiked to 15% from 12.5%. For automobiles, ignition and signalling equipment will have levies raised to 15% from between 7.5 and 10%. At the same time, India has lowered tariffs on raw material to lower costs for local manufacturers. Scrap iron is now duty free, down from 2%.Click here to read...

China moves for more control over Belt and Road in Pakistan

China is taking its Belt and Road infrastructure-building initiative into its own hands in Pakistan, proposing a joint parliamentary oversight committee to tighten control over the speed and quality of projects. Li Zhanshu, the chairman of the National People's Congress of China, proposed the formation of the joint committee for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, in a virtual meeting held with Asad Qaiser, the speaker of Pakistan's National Assembly, toward the end of January. Both heads of parliament directed their secretaries to form the joint parliamentary oversight committee. This decision has been made at a time when concerns are rising about the slowdown of work on CPEC, the $50 billion Pakistan component of the Belt and Road Initiative. In the last week of January, Pakistan's Cabinet Committee on CPEC directed ministries to improve the pace of work on CPEC projects. The decision to form the joint parliamentary oversight committee was made in haste, and even the representative from Gwadar, the port city that is the center stage of CPEC, was not consulted. Click here to read...

Africa mulls taxing Big Tech

Nigeria is trying to counter tax avoidance by tech companies on two fronts, according to Ndajiwo. First, an indirect value-added tax (VAT) on digital services has been enshrined in the Finance Act since 2019.A second approach would require foreign companies not based in Nigeria to pay taxes on profits they make from digital services. Ndajiwo called this taxation of profits "the main problem." According to him, this rather complex regulation, which Abuja introduced a year ago, is not easy to implement.Kenya enacted a 1.5% tax on all digital services in 2021, regardless of where a company is based. This was intended to cover global players, such as cab competitor Uber and streaming service Netflix. The South African-based African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF) is offering help with the introduction of a digital tax. It already has 38 members from all African regions, to whom it provides technical assistance on tax issues. ATAF also works with the African Union in this effort. "However, some members have concerns about possible US retaliation against them," Logan told DW. "That could lead to the imposition of tariffs on exports from those countries to the US." Click here to read...

China's central SOEs spend more on R&D

China's centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) spent more on research and development (R&D) in 2020 amid efforts to boost innovation-driven development, according to the country's state-asset regulator. Their R&D input grew 11.3 percent year on year, while R&D intensity, the percentage of revenue that is reinvested in R&D, rose to 2.55 percent, data from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council showed. The R&D intensity of central industrial enterprises reached 3 percent. Revenue of the central SOEs went down 1.9 percent year on year in 2020, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. Central SOEs have played a larger role in leading innovation efforts as well as actions to improve the industrial and supply chains. They have built more than 400 innovation platforms and promoted the coordination and development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Click here to read...

Strategic
Biden's Indo-Pacific team largest in National Security Council

The largest contingent of U.S. President Joe Biden's national security team will be the Indo-Pacific directorate, one filled with experts who have advocated a tough stance on China. Led by Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell, the division at the National Security Council will combine the directorate for Asian affairs -- which traditionally covers China, Japan, the Koreas, Southeast Asia and Australia -- and the South Asia directorate which oversees India. About 15 to 20 members are expected to form the team. "Kurt Campbell's Indo-Pacific team will be the largest regional NSC directorate, a sign of how this NSC is prioritizing China and broader Indo-Pacific policy issues," NSC spokesperson Emily Horne told Nikkei Asia. "National security adviser Jake Sullivan is personally focused on China as a priority, building capacity across departments and agencies and running processes that break down old silos between foreign and domestic policy," she said. Click here to read...

Joe Biden creates Pentagon task force on China

Joe Biden has created a Pentagon task force to help craft a comprehensive China policy that will examine everything from the deployment of US forces around the world to relations with the Chinese military. The US president announced the formation of the working group during a visit to the Pentagon on Feb 10. The task force, which will include uniformed officers and civilians, will produce recommendations within four months. It will be led by Ely Ratner, a China expert and Pentagon official. Biden said the task force would “work quickly . . . so that we can chart a strong path forward on China”. The Pentagon said the task force would be a “sprint effort” that would examine issues including technology, intelligence and US relations with allies. The Biden team has displayed signs it will maintain a tough posture towards Beijing. The USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt conducted rare dual aircraft carrier training exercises in the South China Sea, only the second time that the US navy has carried out such training in the area since 2012. Biden on Feb 07 said China would face “extreme competition” from the US. Click here to read...

As London eyes entry into Quad, Beijing looks to New Zealand for opening

It will become difficult for China to manoeuvre if deepening Japan-U.K. relations grow to resemble a new "quasi-alliance" that complements the Japan-U.S. alliance and if Britain joins the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, better known as the Quad. Yet China is not sitting idle in this period, a prelude to the tug of war over a new post-coronavirus international order. "We are making a strategic move accordingly," one Chinese trade official said. "Holding the key is New Zealand." China and New Zealand, a TPP member country, signed a deal in late January to upgrade their bilateral free trade agreement. New Zealand is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance led by the U.S. Wellington also has kept its approach toward China largely in step with that of Australia, even as its neighbour remains locked in a fierce confrontation with Beijing. But China has begun efforts to win over New Zealand regardless of that country's other partnerships. Any application by China for TPP membership in the future will need help from Wellington. Click here to read...

Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing says this coup is 'different'

The leader of Myanmar's ruling junta on Feb 08 addressed the nation for the first time since last week's coup, saying the body now in power is "different" from past military governments. Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said the new State Administrative Council established week before includes civilians and members of ethnic minorities, urging "the public to focus on the facts and not be carried away by emotions" as protestors took to the streets nationwide. With the world watching for signs of what lies ahead for an emerging economy widely seen as one of Asia's most promising, the general assured that the economic policies of the previous government would be maintained and Myanmar will remain open to foreign capital. "There will be no change in the foreign policy, government policy and economic policy of the country during the periods we are temporarily taking state responsibility," the general said. "We shall carry the same path as before."The general vowed to defend Myanmar's constitution and hand over power "after the state of emergency provisions have been carried out to hold a free and fair multiparty democracy general election." The junta has established a State Administrative Council of handpicked members. Click here to read...

Navalny stirs dissent in Siberia's icy land of diamonds and gas

Navalny and his aides have built a network of offices in regions the Kremlin largely disregards, reaching out to core supporters in their 20s and 30s. Alexey Gres'ko, the leader of Navalny's office in the Siberian city of Yekaterinburg, observed increased political awareness. "Especially now we see a huge wave of support, even from the people who completely dislike Navalny," he said. Stop feeding Moscow" is a popular slogan in the provinces, but nowhere is it more relevant than in Sakha. Sakha is home to the world's largest diamond mine, as well as a sizable chunk of Russia's oil, gas, coal and uranium reserves. All this makes the region critical for Russia's resource diplomacy. It is the starting point of the Power of Siberia pipeline through which Gazprom exports up to 38 billion cu. meters of gas to China annually under a 30-year deal. A large-scale political protest movement that incorporates these dissatisfied workers could threaten Power of Siberia and other Russian exports, leaving China scrambling for alternatives. Click here to read...

Libya Forms Transitional Unity Government After Years Of Conflict

Libya’s two main warring factions elected a new transitional government at a United Nations-organized summit, taking a tentative step toward political unity after years of conflict that have devastated the North African country. Delegates at the summit in Geneva on Feb 12 elected a businessman, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, as Libya’s prime minister, the U.N.’s acting special envoy for Libya said. He will serve alongside Mohammad Younes Menfi, a former ambassador to Greece, who was elected head of Libya’s presidency council.The country has been split between several governments and multiple militias since 2014, when a transition to democracy that began after the ouster of dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 unraveled.The formation of the new government comes months after the end of a 14-month war between the rival factions, which are backed by foreign powers with competing interests that brought them to the brink of direct conflict last year. Click here to read...

Trump’s Non-Vindication

The Senate failed Feb 13 to convict Donald Trump on the single House impeachment article of inciting an insurrection, but the 57-43 vote was no vindication. The statements by Senators who voted to acquit make clear that he escaped conviction mainly—perhaps only—because he is no longer President.Seven Republicans joined every Democrat in the most bipartisan conviction vote in history. While short of the 67 votes needed to convict, most Republicans didn’t defend Mr. Trump’s words or actions on Jan. 6 or his attempts to overturn the election. Mr. Trump’s behaviour was inexcusable and will mar his legacy for all time was the essence of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s post-trial remarks. The GOP leader voted against conviction but explicitly because he said the Constitution reserves the impeachment power only for Presidents while in office. Scholars disagree on this point, and there are good arguments on both sides. Mr. McConnell leaned on the writing of the 19th-century Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story. But he also noted that impeaching a private citizen had no “limiting principle,” and could set a dangerous precedent. Click here to read...

France wades into South China Sea against China

In an unmistakable sign of the growing internationalization of the South China Sea disputes, France has just confirmed the deployment of a nuclear attack submarine and naval vessel to the hotly contested waters. In a tweet earlier this week, France’s Defense Minister Florence Parly announced that the European power has deployed the nuclear attack submarine Émeraude along with naval support ship Seine to the maritime area to “affirm that international law is the only rule that is valid, whatever the sea where we sail.” “This extraordinary patrol just completed its passage in the South China Sea,” declared the French defense chief following its unprecedented military manoeuvers in Asian waters this week. “This is striking proof of the capacity of our French Navy to deploy far away and for a long time, together with our Australian, American and Japanese strategic partners,” she continued, emphasizing that France’s actions are part of a broader international effort to uphold international law in global sea lines of communications. Click here to read...

France to meet Sahel leaders over Islamist insurgency

French President Emmanuel Macron and a group of five African allies are set to meet on Feb 15 to discuss the violent jihadist insurgency across Africa's Sahel region. Leaders of the so-called G5 Sahel — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — are meeting in Chad's capital city N'Djamena for the two-day summit. Macron will attend via videolink. Islamist fighters in the Sahel first emerged in northern Mali in 2012. They now control vast swaths of territory in the vast region that stretches across the southern edge of the Sahara desert. France together with the G5 Sahel nations have been fighting the insurgency. The UN also has a peacekeeping mission in the region. More than two million people have fled their homes. France, a former colonial power in Mali, currently has 5,100 soldiers in the region as part of its Barkhane operation. The operation has had a number of successes, but attacks on French troops have brought combat deaths up to 50, including five killed in December. Macron last month opened the door to a drawdown, suggesting France may "adjust" its military commitment. But despite persistent rumours, France is not expected to make any big announcement about troop withdrawal at the N'Djamena summit. Click here to read...

North Korea nuclear power plant plans rock politics in the South

Political turmoil has erupted in South Korea after a local broadcaster in late January disclosed the existence of government documents about a potential plan to help North Korea build a nuclear power plant.The papers were prepared on the occasion of 2018 summits between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that boosted a mood of reconciliation between their divided countries, according to Seoul Broadcasting System. The revelation prompted South Korea's biggest opposition party to lash out at Moon for committing a "shocking act benefiting the enemy." The government and the ruling Democratic Party of Korea reacted by condemning the criticism as "intolerable." Prosecutors sought a warrant on Feb 11 to arrest former Trade, Industry and Energy Minister Baek Woon-kyu in the case. The Board of Audit and Inspection requested the submission of related documents from the energy ministry. But some ministry officials entered the ministry building late at night and deleted 530 types of computer documents. On Jan. 28, however, SBS disclosed a list of those deleted, which included 17 reports about the possible plan to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea. Click here to read...

S. Korea to rein in intelligence service in bid for reconciliation

On Dec. 13, 2020, the National Assembly passed legislation that would have police replace the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in dealing with the North by the end of 2023 at the earliest, touted as a step toward reconciliation. The intelligence agency has been responsible for counterintelligence on Pyongyang for some 60 years. During that time, it has also earned a reputation for meddling in domestic politics. Originally called the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA), the NIS will see its authority scaled back so it can only collect intelligence on other foreign nations, take countermeasures against cyberattacks and work to prevent terrorism. Progressive politicians worried about the agency’s domestic political interference see the changes as long overdue. But some in the intelligence community warn it could have unintended consequences on domestic intelligence gathering and security. The KCIA has a chequered past. It was established in 1961 immediately following Park Chung-hee’s military coup. It was comprised of 50 to 60 intelligence officers carefully selected from the South Korean army and navy. Click here to read...

Mekong River drops to ‘worrying’ levels amid calls for more Chinese dam data as river relied on by 60mn people turns blue-green

Water levels along the Mekong River have fallen ‘considerably’ since the start of the year, decreasing to “worryingly” low levels, after China reduced outflow from the Jinghong Dam, the river’s governing body said.On Feb 12, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat reported that the level of the water between the dam’s hydropower station in Yunnan province, China, and the Mekong Delta in Vietnam had dropped dramatically. The commission noted that the dam’s outflow was 800 m³/s on February 11 – considerably lower than the normal level of 1,400 m³/s, yet higher than had been recorded in January. The statement urged China to share its water-release plans and data with the commission more readily to “help the Lower Mekong countries manage risks more effectively.”The river has reportedly turned from brown to aquamarine in places, signalling a dearth of nutrition-rich sediment. The MRC added that reduced rainfall has also contributed to low water levels. In January, China warned other states along the Mekong River that maintenance works at the hydroelectric dam would cause a considerable reduction in flow for 20 days, sparking ecological concerns over the fish-rich waterway. Click here to read...

Houthis step up drone attacks on Saudi Arabia after Washington says it will remove militant group from terrorist list

The Houthis have carried out a drone attack on an airport in Saudi Arabia, following similar attacks that have coincided with the Biden administration’s decision to lift the group’s terrorist designation. A spokesman for the Iran-aligned Yemini group said that two drones launched on Feb 14 by its forces had hit Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport. The Saudi-led coalition claims that both projectiles were intercepted as they were heading towards civilian areas near Abha. The Houthis have insisted that the attacks are a legitimate form of retaliation, noting that the airfield has been used by the Saudi coalition to carry out its bombing campaign inside Yemen. The recent strikes have coincided with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Feb 12 announcement that he will reverse the former Trump administration’s terrorist designation of the Houthis. The change is slated to take effect on February 16. However, Blinken said that senior members of the organization could still face targeted sanctions. Click here to read...

How China’s 17+1 Became a Zombie Mechanism

It is very hard to define the 17+1 mechanism, just as it is hard to define the BRI. China has never clearly articulated its purpose, preferring loose concepts that can easily be promoted. The undefined and shifting nature of the mechanism led to numerous perspectives about its purpose. For the United States, the 17+1 mechanism is China’s tool to create a sphere of influence in Europe by using soft and hard power; for the European Union, the 17+1 is a mechanism whose ultimate goal is to divide the Union. For the CEE region, however, it is just an annual summit featuring a plethora of unfulfilled promises and projects. Instead of slowly scaling back the 17+1, China is doubling down, but this time absent much enthusiasm among the CEE countries. That was best shown by countries like Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovenia – over one-third of the 17 – which sent lower level officials instead of presidents and prime ministers, who could have easily participated in this year’s virtual summit. China might not accept it, but many in the CEE have realized that the 17+1 is just a zombie mechanism and more involvement won’t necessarily bring more investments. Click here to read...

Medical
China Refuses to Give WHO Raw Data on Early Covid-19 Cases

Chinese authorities refused to provide World Health Organization investigators with raw, personalized data on early Covid-19 cases that could help them determine how and when the coronavirus first began to spread in China, according to WHO investigators who described heated exchanges over the lack of detail. The Chinese authorities turned down requests to provide such data on 174 cases of Covid-19 that they have identified from the early phase of the outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. The investigators are part of a WHO team that this week completed a monthlong mission in China aimed at determining the origins of the pandemic. Chinese officials and scientists provided their own extensive summaries and analysis of data on the cases, said the WHO team members. They also supplied aggregated data and analysis on retrospective searches through medical records in the months before the Wuhan outbreak was identified, saying that they had found no evidence of the virus. But the WHO team wasn’t allowed to view the raw underlying data on those retrospective studies, which could allow them to conduct their own analysis on how early and how extensively the virus began to spread in China, the team members said. Click here to read...

China's vaccine diplomacy fails to win ASEAN support: survey

China's attempt to win hearts and minds in Southeast Asia during the coronavirus pandemic through "vaccine diplomacy" appears to have fallen flat, according to a survey by the ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. In a poll of 1,032 people, including academics, government officials and businesspeople across the 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations conducted from Nov. 18 to Jan. 10, 44.2% of respondents said China had provided the most help to the region during the pandemic, ahead of Japan at 18.2%, the European Union at 10.3%, and the 9.6% who named the U.S. China has been proactive in striking COVID-19 vaccine deals with countries in the region. For e.g., Indonesia has already received 3 million ready-to-use vaccines and 25 million bulk vaccines from Sinovac -- the only vaccines in the country now -- and is using them for its mass inoculation program. But despite these efforts, 61.5% of respondents said they would choose the U.S. over China if they were forced to pick sides in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry. Support for the U.S. rose 7.9 percentage points from last year's survey. "The region's support for Washington may have increased as a result of the prospects of the new Biden administration," the report says. Click here to read...

Specific protein deficiency in US and Europe may have caused faster spread than in Asia – Indian study

New research from India suggests that a deficiency of the protein Alpha-anti-trypsin (AAT) in populations across Europe and North America may have contributed to the comparatively rapid spread of Covid-19 when compared with Asia. Published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution, the new study examines the role played by a lung-protecting protein in the spread of the pandemic in the West compared with Asia. Specifically, researchers at the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics (NIBMG) in Kalyani, West Bengal examined the means by which the D614G mutation, predominant in the first waves in Europe and North America, spread so fast. Between February and March 2020, some 64.11 percent of people with Covid-19 were infected with the D614G variant, up from just 1.95 percent in January. It took 2.15 months to reach 50 percent relative frequency in the population in Europe, and 2.83 months in North America, but 5.5 months to reach the same prevalence across East Asia. The researchers caution that their analysis focuses more on the transmissibility and spread of the pathogen through the body, but not necessarily on the severity of the disease in each region. Click here to read...

WHO ‘ramping up readiness’ for new Ebola outbreak dubbed ‘EPIDEMIC’ in Guinea

The World Health Organization (WHO) is heightening its readiness and response to an Ebola outbreak in the West African nation of Guinea after eight infections and at least four deaths were linked to the deadly disease there. The Guinean officials on Feb 14 sounded the alarm over the new outbreak, with National Health Security Agency Chief Sakoba Keita calling the problem an “epidemic situation.” The cases appear to be connected to a burial of a nurse who died a few weeks ago, soon after becoming ill. Keita claimed that “among those who took part in the burial, eight people showed symptoms: diarrhoea, vomiting, and bleeding,” while “three of them died and four others are in hospital.” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization’s Regional Director for Africa, said the organization was “very concerned” by the Ebola deaths in Guinea, and is “ramping up readiness & response efforts to this potential resurgence” of the virus in West Africa. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced on Feb 13 that the organization was performing “confirmatory testing” in the region. It is the first time in five years that Ebola has been linked to deaths in Guinea. Click here to read...

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