Political and Internal Developments

Even as moves were underfoot to reunify the various Muslim Leagues, the PPP made a significant counter move by arranging a meeting in Lahore between Law Minister Babar Awan and the PMLQ leader Pervez Elahi. The post-meeting press conference gave hints of a possible alliance between the PPP and PMLQ, which if it does come about could affect significant changes in the political dispensations in Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi. Not only will the inclusion of the PMLQ in the ruling alliance help the PPP get rid of the constant arm twisting by the MQM in the federal government and Sindh, it will also lead to a change in the political set-up in Punjab where the PMLQ and PPP will have the numbers to form a government.

The reverberations of the PPP-PMLQ meeting are already visible on the political scene in Pakistan. While the PPP and PMLQ leadership is reportedly working on a power sharing formula, it is not quite clear whether the PMLQ leadership will be able to take along all its local satraps in political tie-up with the PPP. One faction of the PMLQ – Likeminded group – which has unveiled a 21 point manifesto for bringing Pakistan out of the rut it finds itself in has all but rejected the move to join hands with the PPP. Instead, the Likeminded have moved forward and announced the formation of a four-party alliance – Muttahida Muslim League (MML) – under the leadership of the maverick Pir Pagara. The problem with the MML is that these four parties don’t count for much either in terms of their electoral strength or their representation in the current assemblies.

Another PMLQ faction – forward bloc – which claims to have 48 MPAs in Punjab assembly has declared that it will not allow the Shahbaz Sharif-led Punjab government to fall. In other words, they will rebel against the party leadership openly if it enters into an alliance with the PPP in Punjab, and this despite the fact that they could end up being disqualified from the assembly under the anti-defection law. Even the loyalists of the party leadership are opposed to embracing the PPP – some for personal and political rivalries, others for ideological reasons and still others because they consider a tie-up with the PPP as a kiss of political death. Not surprisingly then, the PMLQ leader Pervez Elahi has stepped back a little and said that talk of a political alliance between the PPP and PMLQ was somewhat premature. He also said that any decision of tying up with the PPP would be taken after consultations with other top party leaders.

While Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has said that the PPP-PMLQ meeting was part of the reconciliation politics of the PPP, he has at the same time claimed that it would not affect PPP’s relations with PMLN and MQM. The PMLN spokesman has, however, linked the PPP-PMLQ meeting to the Bank of Punjab scandal, in which both Babar Awan and Pervez Elahi are believed to have been involved. Nawaz Sharif too has been almost dismissive about the meeting and said that it makes no difference to the PMLN. At the same time, Nawaz Sharif has taken the high moral ground by pointing out that what is morally not right cannot ever be right politically.

In a sense, the PMLN was responsible for the meeting between PPP and PMLQ. Not only were there reports of a possible compact between PMLN and MQM but also that Nawaz Sharif had given his aides the go-ahead to negotiate for a merger of all the Muslim Leagues. The meeting between two PMLQ senators and the Punjab chief minister are believed to have been part of this manoeuvre. One of the PMLQ senators, Tariq Azeem, was also supposed to meet Nawaz Sharif in London to explore the possibility of a merger between the PMLN and PMLQ. Nawaz Sharif was however adamant that any unification of the Leagues would take place only on terms set by the PMLN, which included the exclusion of the top PMLQ leaders, namely the Chaudhries of Gujrat (Shujaat Hussein and Pervez Elahi), Sheikh Rashid and some others from the unified Muslim League. Although Nawaz Sharif later denied having made any such condition, the damage was done with Elahi swinging PPP’s way.

Meanwhile, the PMLN has given a 7-point charter of demands to the government to ‘root out corruption’. These demands include the formation of a committee of experts to prepare a “roadmap for implementing good governance and professionalism” in various government corporations, removal of NRO-tainted ministers and implementation of the Supreme Court’s verdicts, and firing political appointees in various PSUs. Nawaz Sharif, who had earlier proposed a ‘Charter of Pakistan’ has now proposed that consensus be evolved among all stakeholders to prepare a 25 year plan to put the country back on the rails.

Unification efforts are also underway to revive the religious parties alliance – MMA. Given the seemingly unbridgeable political differences between the Jamaat Islami and the JUIF, one of the component parties of the erstwhile MMA – Markazi Jamaat Ahle Hadith – has proposed a non-electoral alliance between the formerly allied parties of the MMA. This proposal is being seen as a move to counter the growing wave of sectarian violence inside Pakistan. The need for such an alliance was underscored by the bombing of the Shrine of the Sufi saint, Baba Farid in Pakpattan. Six people were killed in the remote controlled explosion outside the shrine.

While the religious parties are contemplating a revival of their alliance to counter sectarian violence, the federal government has claimed that a ‘secret operation’ has been launched against the target killing phenomenon in Karachi. The Sindh Chief Minister has also announced that the government is determined to crackdown on terrorists in the city regardless of their political affiliations. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Rehman Malik has somewhat pompously declared that there would be no more target killings in Karachi since the security forces had shattered the backbone of terrorist networks operating in the city.

In Balochistan the phenomenon of state sponsored target killing of Baloch freedom fighters and political activists has come under the scanner of international Human Rights organisations. The Amnesty International has called upon the government of Pakistan to “investigate the alleged torture and killing of more than 40 political leaders and activists” and “act immediately to provide justice for the growing list of atrocities in Balochistan.” Even as the clamour grows over human rights violations in Balochistan, a meeting of Ulema in Quetta has issued a fatwa declaring former military dictator, Gen Pervez Musharraf, liable for death for his involvement in the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti and for ordering the military action against Lal Masjid in Islamabad.

In its latest report, Transparency International has downgraded Pakistan by 8 places and listed it as the 32nd Most Corrupt country in the world. The downgrading comes even as the Supreme Court has commenced suo moto hearing in the alleged scandal surrounding the Rental Power Plants (RPP) scheme of the government to overcome the crippling energy shortages in the country. Taking cognisance of the damaging report of the ADB on the RPP scheme, the Supreme Court has issued notices to various government agencies and has said that the scheme would be investigated from the time it commenced in 2006 during the Musharraf regime.

Despite the growing calls from donors to tax the rich in Pakistan, the government has bowed to the pressure from the landed feudal lobby and has reportedly instructed a committee examining the taxation structure to refrain from exploring the possibility of levying a tax on agricultural incomes. The government has also failed in evolving a consensus among the provinces for levying the Reformed GST. Apparently the fear of further political unpopularity is coming in the way of imposing the RGST. With the deadline for imposing the levy fast approaching, it is not clear whether the government will manage to meet this important condition put by the IMF and other international financial institutions for releasing more funds to the beleaguered Pakistan economy. On another issue – ending the power subsidy – the government is believed to have given in to the IMF conditionality and has agreed to raise the power tariffs by 2-3% per month till June 2011.

The World Bank and ADB have revised upwards the flood Damage Need Assessment estimates to $ 16 billion. At the same time, the World Bank has reportedly “refused to provide fresh lending of $1 billion for reconstruction of flood-hit areas, and emphasised the need for the government to reprioritise funds already committed for ongoing projects.” Even though the government of Pakistan has refused to reprioritise the funding from existing projects, it has sought fresh loans of $ 3 billion for reconstruction of the flood-hit areas.

Foreign Relations / Foreign Policy

Amidst reports that the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) task force on Pakistan's energy sector has ruled in favour of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline and recommended ‘fast-track cross-border pipelines’, the US government has reiterated that while it supports Pakistan's plans to meet its energy shortages, it does not mean that the US approves of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project. In short, the US is rooting in favour of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which has been accorded an approval by the federal cabinet last week. Despite US disapproval of the IP pipeline, the Pakistan government is in the process of negotiating with China on its participation in the project. With India out of the project, the Pakistanis are looking at China to become the lead financier for the $ 7.5 billion pipeline project.

The British Secretary of State for Home Affairs, Theresa May visited Pakistan last week. She announced 70 million Pounds aid in the women development, education and health sectors. On the issues of expediting British visas for Pakistanis, there was very little give from the British minister who refused to entertain Pakistani requests to return the visa processing centre back to Islamabad from Abu Dhabi. On the issue of cooperation in the war on terror, the Pakistanis insisted on the need “for sharing of information and real-time intelligence from Britain to enable the Pakistan authorities to take pre-emptive measures against any possible threat to the UK and other Western countries from terrorists”.

Pursuant to its pullout from Afghanistan in 2011, Canada has approached Pakistan for providing it facilities for shipping equipment back to Canada through Karachi. With the closure of the covert Canadian logistics base in UAE, Canada is looking at Pakistan as a possible alternative base during its pullout from Afghanistan.

The five-year $ 2 billion military aid package announced during the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue has received a somewhat lukewarm response in Pakistan. Defence Minister Ahmed Mukhtar has complained that the Americans have jacked up the price of F16 fighters and Cobra helicopters, putting beyond the purchasing capacity of Pakistan. Prime Minister Gilani has carped that the aid package announced is less than what Pakistan has already spent in the War on Terror.

While the Pakistan foreign office spokesman has said that the modalities of the military aid package are still to be worked out, there are reports, that the aid, which is subject to Congressional approval, is likely to have ‘stringent conditions’ attached to it, which could include action against terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Haqqani network which the Pakistani authorities are believed to be backing. The conditions could also include military operations in the terrorist safe haven of North Waziristan.

The US administration has rejected India’s concerns over the military assistance package on the grounds that it is in US national interest as the package aims to strengthen Pakistan's counter-insurgency capabilities. According to the State Department, America’s relations with Pakistan do not come at the expense of India. In a sign of the infamous American ‘tilt’, the State Department spokesman also expressed concern over the situation in Kashmir.

Despite the US maintaining that its South Asia policy is not a zero-sum game between India and Pakistan and that its relations with the two countries are on their own merits, it is clear that the US administration is trying to balance its relations between India and Pakistan. The clearest indication of this came when on the eve of his visit to India, US president Barack Obama telephoned President Asif Zardari to “reassure him that America’s relations with New Delhi did not affect its partnership with Pakistan.” Pointing to the ‘progress’ made during the Strategic Dialogue, Obama told Zardari that the Dialogue “endorsed America’s commitment to building a strong and long-term relationship with Pakistan.” According to the White House, Obama “encouraged President Zardari to work to pass key economic reforms”, while at the same time expressing his commitment and support for democracy in Pakistan.

Apart from the security and strategic dimension of the Strategic Dialogue, the US has assured Pakistan assistance for the construction of the Satpara and Gomal Zam dams. Assurances have also been given to seek Congressional approval of a preferential trade agreement with Pakistan. The Americans have also agreed to release $ 750 million of the Coalition Support Funds to Pakistan. In addition, around 80 projects worth $ 831 million have been finalised under the Kerry-Lugar aid package.

Relations with India

Addressing a press conference after his return from Washington, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said that Pakistan has made it clear to the US that there can be no peace in the region without a resolution of the Kashmir issue. He has claimed that the US has accepted Pakistan's position on a number of issues, adding that the US would intervene, albeit quietly, on the issue of Kashmir with India. Qureshi also said that Pakistan has demanded being treated on an equal footing with India on the issue of a civilian nuclear deal. While at Washington, Qureshi said that Obama must use the occasion of his visit to India to “redeem his pledge” on resolving Kashmir. Following the same line, the foreign office spokesman hoped that Obama will “take up those issues which are central to ensuring peace and stability in the region”.

In his hyperbole on linking Kashmir with peace in the region, Qureshi quite conveniently ignored the resurgence on Pakistani controlled territory of the jihadist terror groups active in Kashmir, which are the biggest obstacle in the path of peace in South Asia. The impunity with which these groups, many of them proscribed by both Pakistan as well as the UN, are operating once again is indicative of the reactivation of the jihad factory inside Pakistan. The clearest example of this was the rally held by the umbrella organisation of jihadist terror groups, United Jihad Council, in Muzaffarabad on October 27.