Fortnightly Review & Analysis: USA, Russia & EU (Vol 2 Issue XI)

June 01-15, 2017

USA

Comey’s Testimony

On June 9, in the highest-profile US Congressional testimony in decades, fired FBI Director James Comey spent nearly three hours detailing his interactions with President Donald Trump - a forced and awkward relationship defined, according to Comey, by a series of lies told about him by Trump.

At a hearing that riveted Washington and millions across the United States, James Comey said he believed he had been sacked because of the FBI’s investigation into Moscow’s meddling in last year’s presidential election. The main highlights of Comey’s explosive testimony are given below:

• The Trump administration lied to smear the reputation of Comey and the FBI following his dismissal;
• Comey documented every meeting he had with Trump because he thought the president might lie about what had taken place;
• Comey passed details of the meetings – via a friend – to the press in the hope of speeding up the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the Russia link in the 2016 US election;
• He believes that Trump directed him to shut down the FBI’s investigation against former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

Comey also offered a grim view of the underlying issue – “massive” Russian interference in the US election. “There should be no fuzz on this whatsoever. The Russians interfered in our election during the 2016 cycle. They did it with purpose. They did it with sophistication. They did it with overwhelming technical efforts.”He further told the panel: “It’s my judgment that I was fired because of the Russia investigation. I was fired in some way to change, or the endeavor was to change, the way the Russia investigation was being conducted. That is a very big deal.”

While his evidence did not deliver a knock-out blow to the Trump presidency, it has nevertheless cast the billionaire Republican’s integrity in a withering light and brought his administration under further intensified scrutiny.

US Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Deal

On June 1 US President Trump announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris climate agreement. Speaking from the White House Rose Garden, Trump criticized the agreement as a “bad deal” and an effort to “redistribute wealth” from America to the rest of the world.

Condemning the agreement, Trump talked about his commitment to the “citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris,” to coal miners, and to cement workers. He also assured the nation that he “cares deeply” about the environment. He further added, “In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord.” According to Trump, withdrawing “represents a reassertion of America's sovereignty.” He also said that he hoped to “begin negotiations to reenter either the Paris accord or really entirely new transition on terms that are fair to the United States.” Trump says the Paris deal unfairly puts constraints on the United States coal industry, and unfairly allows some countries to continuing to pollute at a greater rate than others. He also complained that it was a threat to our sovereignty. “Believe me, we have massive legal liability if we stay in,” Trump claimed. In reality however, the US is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, right behind China and many nations seethe decision to leave the agreement as a message to the world: We’ll take the lead on contributing to the problem, but not fixing it!

Many have rejected Trump’s argument and say that he has just made a vastly unpopular decision. According to the Yale program on climate change communication, a large number of people in every US state support the US participating in the Paris agreement. A total of 69 percent of Americans say the US should stay in the agreement. Fortunately, the withdrawal process takes four years and by 2020, when the process actually kicks in, the country would be going through its next election cycle. Many are hopeful that the next US administration (hopefully!) would be more rational on this matter as they see such decisions actually benefiting China’s international profile both diplomatically and economically.

It is not the first time Trump — who spent the campaign demonizing China — will have given Beijing a major chance to expand its standing on the world stage. After Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China inserted itself into trade talks among other nations disappointed by America’s reversal. As Canada and Mexico have felt spurned by Trump during the run up to renegotiating NAFTA, China has emerged as a more reliable trading prospect. At China’s first appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Chinese President Xi Jinping chided the West for its flirtation with protectionism, and painted a picture of his country as a paragon of free trade and an inviting place for foreign investment.

Now, as the US pulls out of the global community’s effort to curb carbon emissions, China’s profile as a forward-looking world leader will only grow. It’s set to become closer to the US’s allies that feel abandoned by Trump’s recent actions, as well as take a more aggressive lead in building a green economy.

UK

Elections

The results of the British election has sent shockwaves around the world after the reality of a hung Parliament threw Brexit negotiations into doubt. Theresa May's future as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservatives was being openly questioned after her decision to hold the snap election disastrously backfired. Mrs May has pledged to offer "stability" if the Tories end up as the largest party with the most votes. But Conservative former minister Anna Soubry said she should "consider her position" and take personal responsibility for a "dreadful" campaign and a "deeply flawed" manifesto. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called on the Prime Minister to resign, saying she should "go and make way for a government that is truly representative of this country".

Despite calls for her resignation, Theresa May announced that she had secured the Queen's permission to form a minority government backed by Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionists after a stunning electoral upset in which her Conservative Party lost its majority in Parliament. May had called for snap polls in April hoping to strengthen her mandate for negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union talks for which are set to begin at the end of June. It is unclear whether the result will affect that timetable. While the Conservatives retained the largest number of seats in parliament, their numbers dropped to 319 seats from the 331 seats they won in 2015, leaving it six short of a majority. The opposition Labour Party was on track to win 262 seats, a gain of thirty since the last election.

According to an analysis in the Financial Times, "Ten days before the scheduled start of EU exit talks, Britain has no secure government and no negotiating position that commands a consensus in parliament, much less the electorate. To proceed in these circumstances would be bizarre but Mrs. May, among her various misjudgments, filed Article 50 before the election. The two-year deadline to conclude the talks nears all the time. There is a way out of this fix but it involves a general election. Yes, another one." "For European Union leaders, who were expecting Mrs. May to win a reinforced majority, the uncertainty is unwelcome, especially as they say they want to prioritize issues such as climate change and their relationship with an unpredictable and unfriendly President Trump. And there is resentment that, once again, the British have complicated things out of political hubris," write Katrin Bennhold and Steven Erlanger for the New York Times.

Russia

2018 Elections

As if taking a cue from the ongoing investigation by America into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 US election, a senior Russian Senator has said that the United States and its NATO allies may attempt to influence the 2018 presidential campaign in Russia. Konstantin Kosachev, head of the upper house Committee for International Relations, told reporters in Moscow, “There is no doubt that in the time that is left before the Russian presidential elections due next March, we will face very active and consistent attempts of the USA and its NATO allies to influence the course of this elections campaign.”

On June 6, the Senator told reporters that the upper house would hold a special session dedicated to countering foreign nations’ attempts to influence Russian internal politics. One proposed measure involved the setting up a special parliamentary commission to monitor any such attempts at meddling, and prepare legislative amendments that would render any interference useless. Kosachev said the current international political environment means such a commission would be required for a long period.

Popular business daily Kommersant reported that parliamentary hearings dedicated to the prevention of potential foreign interference in the Russian domestic affairs have been scheduled and would be chaired by the upper house speaker, Valentina Matviyenko. The session would be attended by the heads of Russian security and law enforcement agencies, as well as the heads of key parliamentary committees. Kommersant also quoted unnamed sources in parliament as saying that the idea to hold a dedicated session on preventing foreign interference in Russian politics was mooted after President Vladimir Putin’s recent meetings with the leaders of Germany and France. At these talks, Putin said that Russia had not meddled with other nations’ internal politics, but its own internal situation remains the target of active interference.

A parliamentary hearing was held on 14 June where it was decided that the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation would receive the right of unscheduled inspections of non-profit organizations "if there is information about their failure to comply with the restrictions and prohibitions." Foreign financing of programs and organizations will be carried out only through the structural subdivisions of foreign organizations established in Russia. In addition, NGOs with foreign funding would be required to register their contracts and programs' goals of activities, the area of implementation and participants." At the same time, "if their activities are contrary to the interests of the state", they will be banned, stressed the Russian Prosecutor General Yuriy Chaika during the parliamentary hearings.

Contact Us