Fortnightly Review & Analysis: USA, Russia & EU (Vol 2 Issue XV)

Aug 1-15, 2017
USA

Investigation into Russian Interference in US Elections

Robert Mueller, US special counsel, convened a grand jury in Washington as part of his investigation into allegations of collusion between Donald Trump's election campaign and Russia. According to the Wall Street Journal, "Grand juries are investigative tools that allow prosecutors to subpoena documents, put witnesses under oath and seek indictments, if there is evidence of a crime." It further adds, "Mueller's decision suggests he believes he will need to subpoena records and take testimony from witnesses." BBC's North America reporter Anthony Zurcher writes, "At the very least it's a sign that Mueller could be on the trail of something big." Trump denies any collusion took place, but US intelligence agencies seem to "have concluded that Russia attempted to sway the presidential contest in Trump's favour".

"It's been clear for months that the allegations are sufficiently serious to merit a full investigation, and in the world of federal prosecutors, that means using a grand jury," Randall Eliason, a former assistant attorney for the District of Columbia, wrote in the Washington Post.

Trump Jr.’s Russia Links

In another development linked to the Russia angle, The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump "weighed in" on drafting a misleading statement issued by his son Donald Trump Jr, regarding a meeting with a Russian lawyer last year.

The Washington Post reported on August 2 that the US President had "personally dictated a statement in which Trump Jr said that he and the Russian lawyer had 'primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children'". The report was flatly denied by Trump's personal lawyer, Jay Sekulow, later that day. However, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders later contradicted Sekulow, saying: "The President weighed in as any father would based on the limited information that he had." She added the original statement by Trump Jr was true. "There is no inaccuracy in the statement," she said. The revelation that President Trump had a hand in drafting the statement, which required several updates as more information came to light, is an admission that "he is personally responsible for deliberately misleading the American people about a major topic of the Russia investigation", the Washington Post says.

Richard Painter, chief White House ethics lawyer under George W Bush, told The Guardian that this could have serious consequences. He said: "You're boxing in a witness into a false story. That puts them under enormous pressure to turn around and lie under oath to be consistent with their story. I think it's obstruction of justice."

Charlottesville Rioting

A planned white supremacist rally led by a group calling itself Unite the Right, in Charlottesville, Virginia, drew nationwide attention as neo-Nazis with torches marched on the University of Virginia campus on 11 August night and officials called for a state of emergency amid protests the next morning.

Many Unite the Right protesters wore white nationalist and Nazi paraphernalia, a militia arrived armed with heavy weaponry and some individuals wore Ku Klux Klan imagery. Former KKK leader David Duke also attended. Counter-protesters were out in force, too, chanting progressive slogans and singing civil rights-era songs. Police called the protest an unlawful gathering and attempted to disburse the white nationalists and counter protesters from a central location. Both sides began to march throughout Charlottesville, despite skirmishes and the use of tear gas. Several counter-protesters were injured when a car rammed into a crowd of them marching through the streets. The car fled the scene.

The rally was ostensibly a protest against removing a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee from a Charlottesville park. From its original base of right-wing “patriot” groups, the rally started drawing a growing number of neo-Nazis — and became a flashpoint for a resurgent, outspoken white nationalism that many feel drew strength from the campaign and presidency of Donald Trump. The President’s tweet blaming both sides for the conflagration did not help matters and led to tensions between him and his advisory panels of corporate chief executives. Members of Trump’s business advisory panels threatened to quit over Trump’s widely disparaging remarks on the violence in Charlottesville. But he pre-empted their move by ending both before they could quit. Trump tweeted, “Rather than putting pressure on the business people of the Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum, I am ending both…Thank you all!” The US President further announced that the business leaders are leaving his advisory council because “they are not taking their job seriously” and aren’t committed to U.S. manufacturing. “We want products made in the country,” he added. “I have to tell you, some of the folks that will leave, they’re leaving out of embarrassment, because they made their products outside.” Trump also tweeted that the departing CEOs were “grandstanders.”

UK and BREXIT

Brexit was back at the top of news bulletins on August 14 morning after a brief absence caused by ministerial holidays and, perhaps, a general weariness of the subject on all sides. The Times of London reports "increasing concern among civil servants and ministers that senior mandarins are railroading through decisions when many politicians are absent from Westminster". Theresa May has been accused of trying to push through Brexit legislation without proper parliamentary scrutiny.

Following accusations that the government is ill-prepared for the next round of Brexit negotiations, the British Government has decided to publish a dozen position papers on issues such as the customs union and Northern Ireland, over the next two weeks. The government is planning to release a series of Brexit policy papers in a bid to regain the initiative after accusations that cabinet divisions have hindered negotiations. The papers are expected to cover "crucial topics", such as the UK's preferred options for replacing the customs union, arrangements at the Northern Irish border and the financial formula used to calculate Britain's remaining obligations to Brussels, says The Guardian. But the expedited timetable for publishing policy papers has been questioned by senior figures in Whitehall, especially the "write-round" time for feedback from government departments. The time allowed to ministers to scrutinize the proposals has reportedly been reduced from 12 days to three and many are not happy with this.

On August 14, the UK also set out plans for an "ambitious new customs arrangement", which could result in the country remaining within the EU's customs union for a specified period after Brexit while it sought to negotiate "highly streamlined" border arrangements. The EU team says the UK must settle its financial obligations before progress can be made on any future trade deal.

In another development, on August 7, Downing Street denied reports it was prepared to pay a £36bn "divorce" bill, telling The Independent that reports the government would offer payments of €10bn (£9bn) on departure and for three years after were "highly speculative and wrong".

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