(Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Maldives)

March 1–15, 2017

Pakistan

Nawaz Rolls the Ball on Anti-Extremist Narrative, Yet Again

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has once again started a debate of sorts on not only combating the extremist narrative in Pakistan but also ensuring religious freedoms for the minority communities and treating them as equal citizens of Pakistan. In a speech at a seminary in Lahore, Nawaz Sharif told the clerics that “hate is being spread in the name of religion and it is the duty of the ulema to free it from hate and violence”, adding that one way this could be done was by rejecting “all those fatwas that incite violence, [and] only the ulema can do it”. He said that “terrorists draw their strength from an extremist interpretation of religion which only the ulema can trounce by building an alternative, rather true, narrative of peace and love”. He followed up this speech by attending a Holi function in Karachi where he stated that forcible conversions were a crime and proclaimed that his government was “committed to ensuring equal opportunities for all communities as it stood for complete religious freedom and equal rights guaranteed under the Constitution”. Nawaz Sharif also chaired a meeting with top national security officials during which it was once again reiterated that ‘elimination of extremism and terrorism are policy imperatives for Pakistan's security’.

While the statement emanating from the national security meeting was quite pro forma, Nawaz Sharif’s speeches in Lahore and Karachi were widely welcomed by Pakistani analysts. But there was also great skepticism about whether Nawaz Sharif’s government will walk the talk. For one, even last year he had spoken similar words before a Hindu audience and it didn’t make any difference to the persecution of Hindus or other minorities. For another, whether it is countering the extremist narrative or protecting minorities, there is no real action plan, much less any concrete step, that Nawaz Sharif’s government has taken. In other words, there is little except verbiage. If anything, these very progressive sounding statements are more aimed at carving out a soft image of Pakistan before the international community and beguiling public opinion in countries like India, than they are at bringing about any change on ground in Pakistan. Every time Nawaz Sharif has said something liberal and progressive, he has balanced it by pandering to the extremists. In the latest instance, he has railed against blasphemy on social media sites calling it an unpardonable crime. His ministers, and also his son-in-law, have been in the vanguard of demanding even a ban on social media sites and other websites which could be hosting anything remotely blasphemous. Therefore, statements of the sort that Nawaz Sharif has made need to be taken with more than a pinch of salt.

New Census, Old Suspicions and Reservations

Nineteen years after the last census, Pakistan has kicked off the sixth census which has literally been forced down the throat of the Nawaz Sharif government by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The entire exercise will be carried out in two phases and will be completed on May 25. But all the controversies, suspicions and reservations that had made the census such a divisive issue that governments preferred to keep postponing it endlessly, continue to dog the latest census. Already there are petitions in court and protests by politicians that cast doubt on the census exercise and could make the census results extremely controversial, even contentious, more so because the data is expected to have huge political and economic implications.

In Balochistan, Baloch politicians are apprehensive that the delicate majority they had in the province could end after the census with Pashtun numbers, bolstered by Afghan refugees, will outscore the Baloch. What is more, given the massive dislocation of Baloch from areas affected by insurgency could also lead to an undercounting of the Baloch. Given that constituency delimitation will be done on basis of population, the census could tilt the balance in favour of the Pashtuns.

Among the Pashtuns, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region, there are serious reservations that the exodus of tribesmen from the insurgency affected Agencies could distort the data on FATA to the disadvantage of the people of this area. In Sindh, there is a huge tussle between urban and rural Sindh because the division of the provincial quota is made on the basis of population. If the numbers in rural Sindh are inflated it could lead to a shrinking of the share of the pie for the urban areas. In Karachi, apart from concerns about the division of the provincial quota, there is also the concern that the Mohajirs could lose their majority, which in turn will mean losing the advantage they enjoyed when fresh delimitation of constituencies is done.

In Punjab, apart from concerns about a reduction in the share of the national cake because Punjab’s population share is expected to fall and that of smaller provinces is expected to increase in relative terms. Given that the next Finance Commission award has been postponed for another year, it is most likely that Punjab’s share will decrease because the next award will have to take into account the new population data. There are also concerns that the political dominance of Punjab could also whittle down a little because of fresh delimitation.

But while all these concerns and apprehensions would be quite normal in any federal polity, in the case of Pakistan there is a fear among the various stakeholders that their competitors and adversaries will over-inflate their own numbers to the detriment of other groups. In 2011, this is precisely what happened during the Household Survey which showed such highly inflated population growth data that its credibility was questioned and the exercise was junked. Even if this time around there is no fiddle with the integrity of data collected, there will be political repercussions once the final count is made public. Many observers are therefore bracing themselves for the political fallout of census even as they welcome the census exercise.

FATA Merger with K-P Approved

With clamour for FATA reforms rising and political players threatening to hold a dharna in Islamabad to press for their demands, the federal cabinet finally approved the proposal of the FATA Reforms Commission to merge the FATA region with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) province. The merger, however, is still some distance away – it will be completed over the next five years – and in the interregnum a series of steps will be taken and reforms introduced that will allow for a smooth transition of FATA’s merger with K-P. Interestingly, while the odious Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) law, which gave FATA a parallel justice system, is to be scrapped and the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court and Peshawar High Court (PHC) is to extend to FATA, the region will now be administered under a new law called ‘Riwaj Act’, which according to Pakistani government officials will allow for a ‘blend of judicial and traditional jirga system’. In other words, FATA will continue to have a parallel judicial system, albeit one which will be under the Supreme Court and PHC.

The cabinet decision has been widely welcomed by almost all political parties (most of which have a very thin presence in FATA) but has been opposed by the Jamiat Ulema Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman (JUIF) which has a strong presence through an extensive madarassa network in FATA. The Maulana was not against ‘main-streaming’ of FATA but was against its merger with K-P. He wanted that a referendum be held in FATA to ascertain the views of the people. Although he has continued to agitate the issue and has even called a Grand Jirga to press his point, for now he seems to have been outflanked. There is however a legal challenge that has been mounted by some tribal elders questioning the legality of the proposed merger. Meanwhile, the K-P chief minister, who otherwise has welcomed the merger decision, has expressed doubts and concerns over ambiguities and anomalies in the cabinet decision which he fears will cause a ‘far larger chaos’ if not removed. His moot point is that the provincial government should be in charge of the transition phase which also needs to be reduced from five years to as early as possible.

US Generals Praise Pakistan; US Politician Want Terror Label

Mixed signals seem to be coming out of Washington on what the policy of the Trump administration is likely to be in the Af-Pak region. While on the one hand, a senior US Congressman, Ted Poe, who heads the House Sub-committee on Terrorism, has introduced a bill seeking to declare Pakistan as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’ and US military has carried out a drone strike in Khurram Agency – the first such strike inside Pakistan since the killing of the Taliban supremo Mullah Mansour in May 2016 – on the other hand, signals emanating from the executive branch, including the US military, suggest that the policy of the Trump administration is likely to be more or less a continuation of the policy of previous administrations. Not only has the US government released $ 550 million in Coalition Support Funds to Pakistan, top US generals have been testifying before the US Congress that Pakistan has been ‘helpful’ in the war on terror, including against the Haqqani Network and the Taliban. What is more, the US Centcom chief, Gen Joseph Votel, has said that India’s policy of isolating Pakistan was ‘especially troubling’ as it could lead to nuclear conflict in the region. Gen Votel’s testimony comes at a time when the Pakistanis have started to play hardball with the Americans, going to the extent of warning their US interlocutors that the US and their allies faced a ‘total mess’ in Afghanistan unless they can halt the spread of the Islamic State (IS) and Taliban, adding that Russia could be tempted to make a Syria-type intervention in the event of the US failure. Clearly, this is a ploy to play upon US fears and concerns about Russia and pit the Americans and Russians against each other in their competition to woo Pakistan. Meanwhile, the US Defence Secretary, Gen John Mattis, has come up with a strategy for Afghanistan which seeks to combat the IS presence in Afghanistan through both military and non-military means.

Afghanistan

Pak-Afghan Border Remains Shut for All Legal Movement

The Afghanistan-Pakistan border that was closed to all movement after the bomb attack on the Sufi shrine in Sindh in mid-February was reopened for two days to allow around 50000 people stranded on the wrong side of the border to cross over to their own country. The temporary relief came after the Afghan ambassador in Pakistan assured that he will ask his government to arrange for special flights to airlift Afghan citizens stranded in Pakistan. Earlier, the Afghan government had appealed to Pakistan to open the border and allow movement of goods and people, something that the Afghans said was an international obligation that Pakistan had to observe. In a tit-for-tat move to the summoning of Afghan diplomats to the GHQ in Rawalpindi, the Pakistani envoy in Kabul was ‘invited’ by a top Afghan general and requested to ask his government to open the border.

At the political level, the Pakistan government seemed to be isolated on the issue of border closure with most opposition parties, especially those with political stakes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, demanding that the border be opened. But the attitude of the government was summed up in an obnoxious statement in the National Assembly by the Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, who not only roared that it was Pakistan's sovereign right to close the border but went on to tell the Afghans that if they had no control over their border areas then they should not call them part of Afghanistan. Pakistani security officials have been reported as saying that the border will remain closed until the regions are cleansed of the terrorists operating from there.

IS Claims Military Hospital Attack; Security Analysts Blame Haqqanis

In a horrendously brutal attack, terrorists belonging to the Islamic State (IS) targeted the main military hospital in the heart of Kabul, killing nearly 50 people and injuring nearly 60 people. Dressed in white lab coats, the terrorists stormed the hospital to carry out their grisly task. All four terrorists were killed by the security forces after several hours of fighting. Although the Taliban denied any hand in the attack, security analysts drew parallels between the Taliban tactics and those adopted by the IS terrorists in the hospital attack. Some former officials, including the former intelligence chief Rehmatullah Nabil, suspected that the attack was carried out by the Haqqani Network because the IS did not have the capability to mount such a complex attack in Kabul.

Russia, China, UK Jump into Peace Process

Even as the top US commander in Afghanistan has called for more troops to break what he calls a ‘stalemate’ in Afghanistan, the British National Security Advisor Mark Lyall Grant has invited his Afghan counterpart, Hanif Atmar, and Pakistan's de facto foreign minister, Sartaj Aziz, to London to broker talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is as yet no explanation as to why Aziz was deputed for these talks instead of the National Security Advisor, Lt Gen Nasir Janjua. The London talks are aimed at coming up with a mechanism that will address the security concerns of both countries.

Meanwhile, China has hosted a delegation of Taliban officials which includes the head of Taliban’s Qatar office, Sher Abbas Stanakzai. From the Taliban side, the visit to China is part of their ‘outreach’ to other countries, which includes some European countries. A Taliban leader has also been quoted as saying that China is a major stakeholder in Afghanistan and has an interest in peace and stability in Afghanistan. For their part, the Chinese are believed to be ‘encouraging’ the Taliban to join the peace process. The Russians too are working to get some sort of a peace process going. After the last meeting in Moscow where six countries – Afghanistan, Iran, India, Russia, China and Pakistan – were invited to deliberate on the situation in Afghanistan, the Russians have now hinted at including the Central Asian states and the US, which had been kept out of the last meeting, in the peace process being spearheaded by Russia. The Russians are also making efforts to get the Taliban on board in this process but are facing resistance from the Afghan government which is suspicious that Russia is trying to legitimise the Taliban through this move.

Nepal

RPP Leaders Join Dahal Cabinet- the Third Largest Ever

A day after the Sanyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM) served a seven day ultimatum to the government warning of withdrawal of support; Prime Minister Dahal inducted Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leaders into the government including its Chairman Kamal Thapa, party’s Chief whip Dilnath Giri and Central working Committee member Parshuram Tamang. It may be recalled that RPP had previously worked against the Dahal government during the prime-ministerial election on August 3. By securing the support of RPP, PM Dahal has not only strengthened his position in the coalition, but also sent a message to the Madhesi Morcha that the government was trying its best to line up the required numbers in the Parliament to get the Constitution Amendment Bill endorsed. The Morcha has accused the Dahal government of failing to act on its promise made when he was elected the PM with Morcha’s support.

Meanwhile the RPP has made its position clear that it will not vote in favour of the constitution amendment. In a joint statement, the three RPP leaders said that RPP shall ensure elections on time and will duly implement the constitution. With RPP’s Chairman already in the Cabinet, PM Dahal now is in talks with the Madhesi Janadikar Forum –Loktantrik (MJF-L), which has 14 lawmakers, to convince it to become part of his government. The move of inducting these parties in the coalition is apparently an attempt to secure 2/3rd majority in the Parliament to ensure the passage of Constitution amendment bill. If the MJF-L also decides to vote in favour of the amendments, the government will need only 3 more votes to secure 396 votes in the 594 strong Parliament to pass the Bill. Accordingly to sources, MJF-L Chairman Bijay Kumar Gachhadar may not be averse to joining the government.

Pass the Amendment, put Delineation on Hold – Proposes PM Dahal

P.M. Dahal has proposed that the Constitution amendment bill would be endorsed before May 14 local polls, withdrawing provisions regarding delineation of provinces from the proposal. In a meeting with United Madhesi Democratic front (UMDF), the PM said that delineation could be settled later. The meeting was called after the UMDF announced withdrawal of support from the government. However, the PM announced that the amendment proposal regarding citizenship, language and representation in the House could be taken up before the polls. The UMDF is yet to respond. The front is not ready to accept the Constitution amendment without the review of provincial boundaries. They alleged that the PM is not keeping up with his words.

PM Dahal to Visit China Shortly

PM Dahal is likely to pay a visit to China shortly, possibly in the last week of this month. He could pay a visit to China to attend the Bao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2017. The visit could pave future grounds for bilateral socio-eco development of Nepal with China.

Bangladesh

Defence Deal in Progress during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Visit

Bangladesh Prime Minister is expected to visit India from April 7th to 10 April. India and Bangladesh are likely to ink a comprehensive defence pact during the visit of PM Sheikh Hasina to India early next month, covering training and sale of military hardware. Sources have also indicated that India was willing to commit up to $ 500 million is line of credit for military cooperation with Dhaka. The growing proximity of Bangladesh with China could be behind this swift move.

Teesta Agreement Likely in Near Future

Obaidul Quader, Bangladesh’s Minister for Road Transport and Bridges, has said that the much awaited Teesta Water sharing deal with India has reached the final stage and will be signed in the near future. He praised PM Hasina on implementing the enclaves exchange successfully. Bangladesh and India are not far from reaching decision on Teesta, the Minister said.

Sri Lanka

Death of Indian Fishermen Creates Stir

Protestors near Rameshwaram in India have charged Sri Lankan Navy of opening fire on fishermen fishing between Kachchatheevu and Dhanushakodi on March 06 that lead to the death of a 22 year old fisherman. The Sri Lankan Navy categorically denied claims that its personnel opened fire at Indian fishermen. Issuing a press release, the Navy said that no naval personnel has the authority to open fire at another vessel or personnel while aboard without a clearance from the navy commander. Sri Lanka has assured India of conducting “a very thorough investigation” into an incident. The statement from the Ministry of External Affairs came a day after both sides agreed to release fishermen in each other’s custody. As per Sri Lankan media reports, as a fallout of this tragedy, no Indian pilgrim had taken part in St. Anthony’s Feast of Kachchathivu islet on March 11 and 12, where last year over 5,000 pilgrims from India visited.

Analysts believe that a tragedy of this nature was ‘waiting to happen’ as a direct fallout of the long-standing dispute between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan Tamil fishermen over fishing rights in the Palk Bay. The implementation of the agreement between the two countries on preventing loss of life while managing the fishing dispute through official channels; instances of Indian fishermen crossing into Sri Lankan waters have always been commonplace, the consequences for such transgressions in recent years have been limited to seizure of boats and prolonged detention Last year, the two countries agreed to establish a Joint Working Group (JWG) to help resolve the dispute. A hotline between the Coast Guards of India and Sri Lanka; convening of the JWG once in three months; and meetings of the fisheries ministers every half-year were the components of the mechanism to be put in place. But short-term measures lose their efficacy in the absence of any forward movement toward long-term solutions. Without arriving at a settlement on sustainable exploitation of the marine resources that would end the use of bottom trawlers from Tamil Nadu, India and Sri Lanka will not be able to ensure incident-free fishing in the strait.

Former Defense Secretary Critical of Government’s Aability to Defend National Interests

A report titled ‘In Defence of the Armed Forces-A Factual Appraisal of the OISL Report: Rebuttal to the Allegations Against the Armed Forces’, compiled by a team of lawyers headed by Darshan Weerasekara against the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution on the country, at the invitation of the Federation of the National Organisations, was launched on March 14. Speaking on the occasion, former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa said that it was the weakness of the government to keep thrusting itself upon the UNHRC Resolution on Sri Lanka when the US, which co-sponsored the resolution, had detached itself from it. He highlighted that Sri Lanka should take a leaf or two out of Britain’s book when the Prime Minister of Britain had recently said they won’t take any action against their armed forces personnel. He also stressed that there are some LTTE elements in the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and that they should take responsibility for their war crimes. At the event, a public proposal was approved to submit to President Maithripala Sirisena requesting him to reject the UNHRC resolution and to make a request to UN Chief to instruct UNHRC Chief to do away with the resolution on Sri Lanka.

A follow-up draft resolution titled ‘Promoting Reconciliation, Accountability and Human Rights in Sri Lanka’ had been submitted to the ongoing 34th session of the UNHRC by five main sponsor nations on Monday, requesting the Government of Sri Lanka to fully implement the measures identified in UNHRC resolution 30/1 of 1 October 2015.

There are many voices within the country, especially from the Joint Oppossition (JO) saying that the government should utilize the opportunities in the international arena especially the change of administration in the US. With the election of President Donald Trump, officials who took keen interest in Sri Lanka such as Nisha Biswal and Samantha Power were removed. The US is clearly adopting more inward looking policies and has not shown much interest in the resolution. JO wants government to leverage this situation.

EU Court Rejects Argument that LTTE didn’t Engage in 'Terrorist Acts'

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) on March 15 rejected an argument by the LTTE that their activities not be classified as "terrorist acts." These arguments were proffered as support for four individuals who had their assets frozen due to the accusation that they were financing acts of terror by financing the Tamil Tigers. The court ruled the move was acceptable, holding that the acts of the Tamil Tigers were admissible as terrorist acts. Terror Lists have come under fire in recent years for violating the basic human rights of those affected by the blacklisting. Last year ECJ Advocate General Eleanor Sharpston released two opinions arguing that Hamas and the LTTE should be removed from the EU's Terror List.

Maldives

Siyam: No Non-Muslim Country will Provide Well-Meant Assistance

Leader of Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), Ahmed Siyam Mohamed has appealed to the people to stop expecting well-meaning assistance to Maldives from non-Muslim countries. This was in the context of former President Mohamed Nasheed’s recent interview, where said that Saudi Arabia was a country which “produced” terrorists, and that education received by Maldivians from Saudi Arabia was the driving force behind spread of extremism and Maldivians travelling to foreign countries to join militant groups. Criticizing this argument by Nasheed, Ahmed Siyam pointed that Maldives was a 100 percent Muslim country and opposition led by Mohamed Naheed was seeking assistance from those non-Muslim countries which were “destroying” other Muslim countries. He said that the difficulties faced by Muslims in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Libya were because of non-Muslim countries. He went on suggest that any comment against Saudi Arabia, a country from among all Muslim countries in the world which spends the most on counter-terrorism, stems from the fact that opposition is anti-Islamic. Maldives Development Alliance is a party that was formed in 2012 by Ahmed Siyam Mohamed, and became part of the present ruling coalition after winning 5 seats in the Majlis in 2014.

Saudi: Rumors are False, No Intention to Buy Land in Maldives

Embassy of Saudi Arabia in the Maldives has said that rumors in the media about Saudi Arabia trying to buy an atoll in the Maldives are false. A statement issued by the Saudi Embassy said that the Saudi government has no intention to buy an atoll, island or land in Maldives to run a major protect and they do not even want to run a project under that condition. Maldivian government has also denied the allegations made by the oppositions about selling the Faafu Atoll to the Saudi government. President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom previous said that major investment is going to come to the Faafu atoll. The President then said that it would be a ten-billion-dollar project and there is no need to question the investment coming to the atoll. President Yameen said that the project in Faafu Atoll would be a revolution to Maldivian tourism.