Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 2 Issue XI)

June 1-15, 2017

Nepal

Sher Bahadur Deuba Elected Prime Minister for the Fourth Time

Nepali Congress President Shri Sher Bahadur Deuba returned to power for the fourth time. With 388 votes in his favour in the 593 strong Parliament, it was an easy sail for Deuba. Earlier, respecting the gentleman agreement reached between the National Congress and the Maoist Centre, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ had resigned from the post through a line telecast of his address to the nation on May 24 in a bid to pave way for the election of Deuba to the post of Prime Minister. Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre-(CPN-MC), Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Rashtriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N), Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum (SSF), Nepal Loktantrik Forum (NLF) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Samyukta) among others voted for Deuba.

Addressing the House, Deuba laid out his government’s three main priorities-holding three-tiers of elections by January 21, 2018, amending the Constitution to address the demands of the Madhes-Centric Parties and the Madhesis and take measures to advance the economic development of the country. His further areas of focus shall be developing effective local governance by empowering local bodies, expediting reconstruction of the earthquake ravaged structures and completing the transnational justice.

Prime Minister Deuba is currently leading an eight member Cabinet with three members from his party, three from CPN-MC and one from NLF. For Deuba, who has promised an amendment to the Constitution to address the demands of the agitating Madhes-based parties, the support of the RPP will be extremely crucial when it comes to endorsing of the statute amendment bill as the party holds 37 seats in the Parliament. As the RPP is twice the size of the NLF, it has demanded at least six ministers in the cabinet.

Nepal facing Political Slugfest on Holding Second Phase of Local Level Elections:

Second Phase elections to the Local bodies in Province 2 were deferred for the second time. Provinces 1, 5 and 7 will however hold the polls on June 28 as scheduled, though the date of filing nominations have been extended by two days. This change has been made to accommodate the agitating RJP-N to the polls. However, the party has not yet confirmed its participation in the polls. Earlier, the Election Commission had warned of political disaster if the polls were postponed. Meanwhile, the main opposition Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) has stated that the supposed change in the date of election in Province 2 would eventually prepare the mindset of division in the country. They have dubbed this as a ‘serious crime which would eventually weaken the unity’ and encourage divisive trends.

After the failure of back to back negotiations between ruling alliance and the RJP-N under the banner of Sanghiya Gathabandhan, the latter has decided to scale up its protests aiming to disrupt the forthcoming polls. According to reports, security presence in the Tarai districts has been significantly increased in view of the fact several districts in the Tarai plains remain highly susceptible to poll-related violence. Janakpur, Sarlahi and Saptari are three of the highly susceptible districts among several others.

Meanwhile a few Madhes based parties like the Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN) and the Nyaya Shakti Nepal (NSN) have urged all the parties to unite on a common platform to participate in the second round of election. FSFN’s Upendra Yadav and Nyaya Shakti Coordinator Baburam Bhattarai have urged the RJP-N to contest in the election. Simultaneously they have also demanded the government and the agitating parties to implement the agreement they reached on ensuring broader acceptability of the Constitution. Both the parties have strongly urged the agitating partners to participate in the elections in order to take the forward the struggle for rights including the achievement of federation to a new pedestal.

Amendments to the Constitution

Meanwhile, the RJP-N has indicated that the party is not ready to take part in the second phase of local-level elections scheduled for June 28 without getting its demands of Constitutional amendments fulfilled. They have further proposed postponing of the elections in order to create a congenial environment for them to join the elections.

Prime Minister Deuba has assured to amend the Constitution as demanded by the Madhes-based party’s only after holding the second phase of elections. He acknowledged the importance of addressing the demands of the disgruntled parties to broaden the ownership of the new Constitution. Prior to Deuba’s election as the new Prime Minister, NC and CPN(MC) had signed a three-point deal with the RJP-N according to which the latter voted for Deuba in the Parliament on June 6. Deuba’s stand is that the government does not have two-third majority required to pass the statute amendment bill tabled in Parliament. It requires the support of the main opposition the CPN-UML and other fringe parties which would require both time and effort. Meanwhile Deuba hopes that that the opposition would also cooperate with the government in addressing the demands of the agitating parties.

Chairman of the main opposition CPN-UML, K.P. Sharma Oli has alleged that the ruling party has indirectly proposed deferring the polls. It is believed that Deuba is presumably under pressure from a section of Nepali Congress leaders to defer the polls. Earlier the Nepali Congress leaders had asked Deuba to defer the second phase of polls at least in provinces 2 and 5 for a few days in order to accommodate the agitating RJP-N on board. Keeping that in mind the election in Province 2 have been shelved for September 18.

Law placing President, Vice President above Litigation proposed in Nepal

Government has registered a bill in the Parliament proposing that no case shall be filed in a court of law raising any question over the official decisions of the President or Vice President and their discharge of duties, even post retirement.

Section 16 of the Bill to Provision, Remunerations and Facilities for the President and Vice President reads “No case shall be filed at any court against a President and Vice President during their tenure or after retirement in connection with their acts or decisions while in office”. The government has drafted the Bill as the new Constitution makes it mandatory to enact a law for providing facilities and remuneration for President and Vice President. However, the proposed law is said to be without precedent. The Supreme Court has in the past sought written answers from the office of the Head of State in various cases but the court had declined to issue a show cause notice to the office of President, stating that the Head of State should not be pulled into any controversies. “Since the Constitution has not given any impunity or prerogative, questions can be raised with regards to any act carried out by the President in the capacity of Head of State and such questions can be settled by the Constitution” reads the verdict of a full bench of the Supreme Court in response to a Writ Petition filed by advocate. This verdict was issued by Justice Tap Bahadur Magar, Prem Sharma and Mohan Prakash Sitaula on September 30, 2010. Justice Subedi said that the provisions in the new bill is against the spirit of the Constitution.

Former Finance could be held Accountable in the Tax Scam of R. 48 billion

The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) has intensified investigation into the multi-billion rupee tax scam involving senior tax officials. Investigators privy to the development say more individuals including “politicians involved in forming a controversial Tax Fixation Commission (TFC) and controversial tax payers” are likely to be crestfallen. On June 2, the CIAA had arrested IRD chief Sharma on the charge of corruption while fixing the tax liabilities of large industrial entities. Director General Chudamani Sharma , who was also a member of the then TFC, which whittled down tax liabilities amounting to Rs 30.52 billion to Rs 9.54 billion for purportedly resolving disputed tax cases. Simultaneously the CIAA has handed over separate letters to former Finance Ministers Mahat and Dhakal asking them to appear before the constitutional body and clear-up the allegations against them.

A preliminary investigation show both Mahat and Dhakal as responsible for waiving Rs 21 billion in taxes in a very dubious manner. Commenting on the tax settlements, the Office of the Auditor General in a recent annual report questioned the rationale behind such tax waivers. It said that the settlements were not in cases of disputed tax assessment or in cases under review in court but were only instances of taxpayers simply not paying their tax dues.

Asked about the then finance ministers” involvement in the tax scam, CIAA officials said that many individuals could be dragged into the scam once they go through the entire documents and the statement recording process completes. It seems the investigation is going to be time-taking and more people are likely to be dragged into the scam,’ said the source.

Bhutan
Nothing significant to report.

Bangladesh

Rangamati faces Food, Power and Fuel Crisis after Landslides

A series of landslides hit Rangamati in the Chittagong division, claiming more than hundred causalities. Increasing settlements, destruction of forest over the years have made hills vulnerable to such disasters. Landslides resulting mainly from torrential rains claimed lives in Rangamati, Bandarban, Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar. Experts have pointed out that the government policies and actions with regard to the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) has caused a steep rise in population of the region over the last few decades which eventually led to environmental degradation. Within a decade from 1981, the CHT population has risen by 67.95 percent. The recent influx of Rohingyas from Myanmar has made the matters even worse. The disaster has been termed as a manmade one.

Bangladesh Embassy in Qatar Advises Expatriates not to Panic

Amid the current crisis in Qatar, the Bangladesh embassy in Doha has urged its expatriates not to panic and keep in regular touch with the Bangladeshi embassy. The statement came as panic spread among the migrants following diplomatic tension between Saudi Arabia together with Egypt, UAE and Bahrain and Qatar. This ongoing face-off also puts Bangladesh in a dilemma as Dhaka maintain strong relations with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Both the countries are major destinations for Bangladeshi workers. Currently, 3, 80,000 Bangladeshi are working in Qatar.

Bangladesh Protests over Arrest of Diplomat In USA on Charges of Labour Trafficking

Bangladesh’s Deputy Consul General in New York, Shahedul Islam was recently arrested in New York on charges of labour trafficking and assault. The arrest came as a violation of an international treaty (Vienna Convention on Consular Relations 1963) on the treatment of diplomats. Foreign Ministry officials in Dhaka said that US Embassy’s Deputy Chief of Mission Joel Reifman has been asked for further explanations. Bail was set at $ 50,000 bond or $ 25,000 in cash. Bangladesh Embassy in Washington has been in regular contact with the State Department about the prompt resolution of the case. They hope their concerns will be duly addressed.

Sri Lanka

New Foreign Minister Visits India

The newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sri Lanka, Mr Ravi Karunanayake undertook an official visit to New Delhi, India from 6th – 7th June 2017. This was Karunanayake’s first overseas visit after assuming charge as Foreign Minister last month, following a major cabinet reshuffle. His visit was aimed at taking the ongoing bilateral negotiations between India and Sri Lanka forward. He paid courtesy call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and held talks on bilateral relations with his Indian counterpart, Smt. Sushma Swaraj. He also had separate meetings with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar.

This visit to India within 11 days of assumption of new charge reinforces Sri Lanka’s desire foster stronger ties with India. Karunanayake asserted that India was Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour and a time tested friend. He added that his country will keep following ‘Friends with all, enemies with none’ foreign policy. On China, the new Foreign Minister maintained that commercial diplomacy has come to stay and the present political dispensation wanted Sri Lanka to play that role for India which Hong Kong had played for China.

On the most pressing issue of illegal fishing of Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen, both India and Sri Lanka have been holding a series of meetings in the last few months to resolve it. The issue is known to have figured in his talks with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj. India has been maintaining that it was looking at getting into the root of the problem and find a permanent solution to the issue.

CM Vigneswaran Temporarily Takes Over Four Ministerial Portfolios

Northern Province Chief Minister CV Vigneswaran ‘temporarily’ took over all four ministerial portfolios of the council under his purview on June 14 after asking Education Minister T Gurukularajah and Agriculture Minister O Ainkaraneshan to resign after a committee report suggested corruption charges against them. He also asked Transport and Trade Minister B. Deniswaran and Health Minister P. Sathyalingam to proceed on a month's leave as investigations of corruption were pending against them.

Opposition Council Member V. Jayathilake said that the opposition was not given the opportunity to express its opinions during the debate and therefore, all opposition members walked out of the council. The dissident councilors, led by CVK Sivagnanam who is also the Chairman (Speaker) of the Northern Province Council (NPC), said that they had handed over a written no-confidence letter against NPC Chief Minister on Wednesday evening to the Governor, claiming the support of 22 councilors out of the total of 38, backing the no-confidence motion.

Vigneswaran supporters see these developments as part of ‘external agenda’. They maintain that CM has done nothing wrong as he was answerable to the people of the Northern Provincial Council. According to them, Ilangkai Thamizh Arasuk Kadchi (ITAK), which is the main constituent party of the TNA, has engineered the move of no-confidence against Vigneswaran. They accused TNA parliamentarian MA Sumanthiran of creating, managing and finally deploying the move to force Vignewaran and his genre to retire from politics. Sumanthiran was also involved in convincing the ITAK group of councilors to back his line. As per some unverified media reports, he was in touch with the President and Prime Minister. Sumanthiran is a close aid of Sampanthan, Leader of Opposition in the Parliament, and thus this development is seen as a tussle between Sampanthan and Vigneswaran factions within the TNA.

President Visits Jaffna

President Sirisena visited Jaffna on June 12 to participate in the Jaffna District Coordinating Committee meeting. This was his 15th visit to Jaffna, despite accumulating unfulfilled assurances made during his previous visits. President, along with and a team of senior ministers and bureaucrats met representatives of the protesting relatives of Missing Persons. Responding to their demands, President Sirisena said he would take up the matter in National Security Council meeting in Colombo promised to pass necessary orders. Jaffna University academic Guruparan Kumaravadivel, who is also a spokesman for the Tamil Civil Society Forum attended the meeting as an observer and said, “People may be skeptical about whether his orders will materialise or not, but the fact he made a public pronouncement at the meeting is important”.

An estimated 65,000 persons have petitioned the government about their missing relatives. At least six commissions have been set up by different governments since 1990 to address the problem but there has been little progress. In August 2016, the Sri Lankan government passed a legislation to set up an office on missing persons, but it is yet to be operationalised.

Maldives

Maldives Joins Saudi in Cutting Ties with Qatar

The Maldives has decided to join the Saudi Arabian initiative to cut off diplomatic relations with Qatar over the latter’s alleged support for Islamist groups.In a statement, the foreign ministry said that Maldives has pursued a policy of promoting peace and stability in the Middle East, and the decision was made because of its firm opposition to activities that encourage terrorism and extremism.Diplomatic relations between Maldives and Qatar was set up in 1984. Saudi Arabia, which opened an embassy in the Maldives in 2015, has offered cash grants to the government, contributed heavily in education sector and begun negotiations on investments. Since the ascendency of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom as the President, the country has tried to nurture special ties with Saudi Arabia and projected itself as a key player on the matters concerning West Asia. Last year, Maldives severed its 40-year-old diplomatic ties with Iran, saying the country’s policies in the Middle East were detrimental to peace and security in the region. President Yameen also participated in last month’s Arab-Islamic-American summit in Saudi Arabia.

Al Jazeera Expose on Maldives Wins ‘One World’ Award

Al Jazeera's Investigative Unit has won the ‘Corruption Reporting Award’ at the annual One World Media ceremony in London for its documentary ‘Stealing Paradise’, which provided an unprecedented insight into corruption in the Maldivian government. The award is sponsored by Transparency International, an international NGO that has been critical of the Maldives for shrinking space for democracy.

‘Stealing Paradise’ attracted global news attention as President Yameen hired London-based legal and public relations firms to try to suppress Al Jazeera's broadcast. The regime also promised serious consequences for anyone "in any way connected with the Al Jazeera documentary". The threats were broadcast on state television and followed by police raids on two media outlets in the capital, Male. The offices of a legal firm were also raided by police. Al Jazeera's London-based investigative reporter, Will Jordan, faced numerous death threats on social media, prompting a police investigation.

Maldives Launches its First Global Sovereign Bonds

In an effort to boost its economy, Maldives last week launched its first international sovereign bonds through Singapore Stock Exchange. As per government officials, the market response was encouraging: the order book was oversubscribed by double. The government expects the bond to open the door for public and private companies in the Maldives to tap into international markets. Over 80% of the sovereign bond investors came from Asia. The $ 200 million 5-year maturity bond has a coupon rate of 7% per annum. The bond was rated B2 by Moody’s Investors Services and B+ by Fitch Rating, in line with their respective sovereign credit ratings for the Maldives.

(Developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan could not be covered due to administrative reasons and will resume in the next edition)

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