Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 2 Issue XIII)

July 1-15, 2017

Pakistan

JIT Tightens Noose on Nawaz’s Neck, Court Still to Yank It

The growing anxiety in Sharif family and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) proved correct when the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) constituted by the Supreme Court of Pakistan to investigate the Panama Papers charges against the first family of Pakistani politics submitted its report to the apex court. The JIT report is a scathing indictment of Nawaz Sharif’s murky financial dealings and has implicated not just the Prime Minister (PM) but also his heir apparent and daughter, son-in-law, both his sons, finance minister and close relative Ishaq Dar, in financial wrongdoing. Incidentally, the JIT report reveals that none of the stories given by those investigated matched with each other! Worse, there are indications that none other than the PM’s brother and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif seems to have gone against his brother and his family by washing his hands off the entire affair. The PM, his family and some of his close cronies have been accused of money laundering and accumulating wealth far beyond known sources of income. In addition, there are charges of forgery, falsifying documents and perjury.

On the face of it, the JIT report is a virtual political death sentence for Nawaz Sharif. It has placed the noose firmly around Nawaz Sharif’s neck but it will depend on the Supreme Court bench hearing the case whether or not to pull the rope. The court has asked the Sharif family to come up with their response to the JIT report on July 17. What course of action will be adopted by the Supreme Court is still not clear. It is possible that the court could order the filing of a reference in an accountability court against those found guilty by the JIT. Alternatively, the court might decide that there is enough material available to bring the political guillotine down on Nawaz Sharif and disqualify him for falling foul of Article 62 and 63 of the Constitution that mandates that any elected parliamentarian be both ‘sadiq’ and ‘ameen’ i.e. honest and truthful.

Even if Nawaz Sharif gets a reprieve from the court in terms of a reference being filed, the political damage done to him by the JIT report, for the foreseeable future at least, appears insurmountable. The opposition is already sharpening its knives. Imran Khan isn't likely to sit by and wait for the accountability court’s verdict and is going to take to the streets demanding Nawaz Sharif’s resignation and fresh elections. Other opposition parties are also demanding Nawaz Sharif’s head but are not keen on an early election. How much support Imran Khan will be able to garner from the street remains unclear. But if the street is agitated, it will create a spectre of uncertainty and anarchy which could force an extra-Constitutional intervention.

Most political analysts and observers in Pakistan are of the view that the best course of action for Nawaz Sharif would be to take the high moral ground, resign and fight his case in the accountability courts and clear his name. But Nawaz Sharif appears to have dug in his heels and is all set to fight it out without resigning. After the initial shock over the unexpected revelations and evidence that the JIT dug out – an offshore company in Dubai in which he is also got a work visa and the letter from Dubai authorities denying all the transactions claimed by the Sharif family to explain the money trail – the Sharif family through its lawyers and allies in the media has started to puncture holes in the charges levelled in JIT report. But much of their rear-guard action is based on technicalities when ideally it should have been based on documentary evidence that exonerated them. In any case, the narrative that has built up over the last few months is against the Sharifs and their strident challenging of the evidence has done little to improve their case, even less so because all the sinister conspiracy theories being alleged by them don’t answer the simple questions related to the money trail of the expensive flats bought by the family in London.

For Nawaz Sharif the road ahead looks very rough. There is already talk of the party splitting up and many of the parliamentarians jumping ship to join other parties. Nawaz Sharif has also been dealt a body blow by the UAE. The manner in which the UAE collaborated with the JIT and gave incriminating evidence against Nawaz Sharif suggests that it was pay back for the position taken by the Pakistani PM on the issue of Yemen and even Qatar. The Army, meanwhile, is not just watching from the side-lines, but has also assisted the JIT in procuring the volumes of evidence against the Sharifs. The sheer amount of documents presented by the JIT was simply not possible in the 60 days allotted to it by the Supreme Court. This means that dossiers and evidence collected against the Sharifs by the intelligence agencies (in particular the ISI and MI) was shared to fix Nawaz Sharif. In other words, if Nawaz Sharif was to enter into a confrontation at this stage, he cannot expect the Army to be at his back. All in all then, it seems curtains for Nawaz Sharif. If despite all this, he still manages to survive, then it will be a political miracle.

Demanding Nawaz Accountability, Imran Continues to Evade His Own

Even as he ratchets up the pressure on Nawaz Sharif over the Panama Papers scandal, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan has been evading giving a clear explanation about not only his party’s funding but also his own finances. Currently there are two cases being pursued against Imran Khan. One relates to his breaking the law by getting foreign funding for the PTI. It seeks his disqualification on grounds of hiding his assets, in particular not disclosing an offshore company owned by him, and also seeks the de-recognising PTI on grounds of foreign funding. Another case is that of contempt of court before the Election Commission of Pakistan. In both these cases – one before the Election Commission of Pakistan and the other before the Supreme Court – Imran Khan has resorted to the time-honoured tactic of delay, deflect and obstruct the course of justice. He has either failed to submit his reply, or has changed his lawyers, or has challenged the jurisdiction of the court. What he has not done is give documentary evidence in his favour.

Until recently, the courts seem to be indulging him. But with the Panama Papers case becoming very political and the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PMLN) increasingly pointing fingers at the judiciary of showing bias towards Imran Khan, the courts have started turning the screws on Imran Khan by insisting that he present documentary evidence of his earnings. The plea taken by Imran Khan’s cronies that since he wasn’t a public servant he cannot be accused of corruption is disingenuous because it doesn’t answer the question of tax evasion or non-declaration of his assets or of engaging in illegal financial dealings, all of which are valid grounds for his disqualification on grounds of Article 63 and 63 of the Constitution.

The manner in which Imran Khan is handling his cases suggests that he doesn’t have the requisite evidence that will exonerate him. If the courts decide to throw the book at him, then it will create a big vacuum in Pakistani politics if both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are disqualified. The Army, which has found in Imran Khan a useful catspaw against the Sharifs isn't exactly keen on having a maverick like him at the helm of affairs. It would however require quite a lot of political engineering to fill the vacuum so that the quasi-democratic setup which institutionalises the diarchy between the elected but powerless civilians and the unelected but all powerful military continues.

Terrorism: Bans, Strikes and Funding Curbs

The UNSC 1267 sanctions committee has listed the Jamaatul Ahrar (JuA) as a terrorist organisation subjecting it to an arms embargo, assets freeze and a travel ban. This is being seen as a big gain for Pakistan. But this move hasn’t cramped the lethality of the JuA just yet. The terror outfit claimed responsibility for the shooting down of a senior police officer and his three guards in Quetta. In another attack, this one claimed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the district police chief of Chaman was killed after a suicide bomber banged his motorcycle against the vehicle in which the police officer was travelling.

Meanwhile, the Pakistanis have banned a newly created Lashkar-e-Taiba/Jamaatud Dawa front – Tehrik-e-Azadi-Jammu and Kashmir (TAJK). The fact that Pakistan continues to be on the radar screen of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which has referred Pakistan's case to the Asia-Pacific Group on money laundering to examine how far Pakistan has complied in implementing the UNSCR 1267, might have something to do with the action taken against the TAJK. There are also reports of the federal government directing the Punjab government to ban fund raising by banned organisations. But on the ground, none of these directives seem to have any impact with cadres of banned international terror outfits pretty much going about their business unmolested.

Afghanistan

US Pressure Grows on Pakistan to Deliver on Afghanistan

Pakistan was in for a rude shock after Senator John McCain, head of the visiting US Senate delegation, who ostensibly ‘appreciated the contribution and sacrifice made by Pakistan in the fight against terrorism’ and spoke in favour of remaining engaged with Pakistan, seemed to change his tune when he landed in Kabul, and warned that Pakistan had been told that it is ‘expected to cooperate with us [USA] particularly against the Haqqani network and against terrorist organisations’ and that if Pakistan didn’t change its behaviour then ‘maybe we should change our behaviour towards Pakistan as a nation’. Not just the US but also NATO has issued a warning to Pakistan with the NATO secretary general saying that Jens Stoltenberg saying that ‘it is absolutely unacceptable that a country provides sanctuary to terrorist groups which are responsible for terrorist attacks inside another country.’ These statements came even as Pakistan was bracing itself for the new policy that the US government is likely to unveil soon on Afghanistan and Pakistan and which is expected to get tougher on Pakistan.

In another indication of the changing mood in Washington, the US Congress has passed a bill making aid to Pakistan conditional on its actions and support in the fight against the Haqqani network and the Taliban. The Americans are also believed to be leaning on the Pakistanis to release Dr Shakil Afridi, the man who helped in the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

Meanwhile, the Afghans are reported to have denied access to Tajikistan to lay a power transmission line to supply electricity to Pakistan until Pakistan gives India access for two-way trade with Afghanistan through Wagah. While in Dushanbe for a trilateral meeting between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan, the Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, said that the choice before Pakistan was simple: if it chose not to cooperate with Afghanistan, then Afghanistan which no longer depended on Pakistan or its ports for its trade would use new trade routes which had been developed to maintain connectivity with rest of the world; on the other hand, ‘if Pakistan cooperates with Afghanistan then a big portion of Central Asian business would concentrate with South Asia which could change the lives of 40-60 million people.’

Nepal

Statute Revision Runs into Difficulty

In what appears to point towards continuing political deadlock, the opposition Communist Party of Nepal-Unified–Marxist Leninist-(CPN-UML) has refused to consider statute revision before the provincial and parliamentary elections, virtually forcing the ruling Nepali Congress (NC)-CPN (Maoist Centre) coalition government to make it clear to the agitating Rashtriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) of no possibility to amendthe Constitution due to lack of the required numbers in the in the Parliament.

Earlier, Minister of Labour and Employment Farmullah Mansoor had said that the “government would put the Constitution Amendment Bill to vote as soon as it succeeds in mustering 2/3 majority in its favour. The government was hopeful to ensure passage of the bill within a week or so. CPN-MC lawmakers said that ‘no stones shall be unturned’ to put the bill to vote. Former Prime Minister and the CPN (MC) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ had also confirmed that his party was in favour of this move that would strengthen national unity and bring the agitating RJP-N on board the forthcoming polls. Dahal said that the acceptance of the bill should be passed from the Parliament to increase consent from the Constitution and strengthen national unity. CPN-MC Chief Whip, Tek Bahadur Basnet was of the view that if the party cannot play constructive role, ‘external forces’ were likely to take advantage of it. Dahal government had tabled the Constitution Amendment Bill in the Parliament some three months ago to address the demands put forth by the RJP-N. CPN-MC shall hold unilateral bi-lateral and multi-lateral meetings with all political forces to gainer 2/3 majority in the House in support of the Bill. He made a proposal during his meeting with the top political leaders on Tuesday, 11 July, 2017. The alternatives floated by Dahal are as follows:

1. Take all the major parties (NC, the CPN-UML and the CPN-MC) jointly amend the Constitution and forge a package agreement with RJP-N on other issues.
2. Take the amendment bill for floor test to resolve it once and for all and in doing so seek commitment from RJP-N to participate in the third phase polls.
3. Keep the current number of local bodies as it was before the polls and thereby forge consensus with RJP-N to change the local bodies’ numbers after the election.

Prime Minister Deuba has expressed his support for proposals and stressed on convincing the RJP-N. He believed that the UML should not be a hindrance in endorsing the amendment bill. UML leader Subas Nembang informed of his party’s assistance to the government as an opposition party and hinted its support for the third proposal. However, according to latest press reports, CPN-UML has refused to budge from its stance and has made it clear that an amendment to the Constitution at this stage was just not possible. The UML led opposition bloc commands 196 seats in Parliament and without its support the government would not be able to secure 2/3 majority to pass the required bill.

On the other hand the government has expressed its commitment to fulfil the RJP-N’s other demands including the withdrawing of cases against leaders and cadres in connection with the Tharuhat and the Madhes movements. The RJP-N cadres have also been informed of increase in the number of local units in Province 2. It may be recalled that the RJP-N did not participate in the 1st round of polls and also boycotted the second round held on June 28. The third round of local polls in scheduled for September 18 in Province 2. The agitating RJP-N maintains its position of non-participation in the 3rd phase too unless its demand for statute revision is addressed.

Efforts are on between the RJP-N to hold talks with the opposition UML. Among internal rifts within the RJP-N, Rajendra Mahato, a senior RJP-N leader is learnt to have taken a firm position of making the Constitution amendment a prerequisite for the party’s participation in the forthcoming September 18 polls.

UML Vice Chairman Bhim Rawal has stated that his party has proposed to put the amendment bill to vote only after the provincial and general elections. Meanwhile Nepali Congress leader Bimalendra Nidhi said the amendment bill would not be put to vote in the present circumstances unless UML with its numbers in the Parliament, backs it. PM Deuba wants to maintain the existing 240 constituencies for the parliament. He argued that it would be easy to convince the agitating Madhesis with the provision as the parties could protest the delineation into 165 constituencies if done otherwise, claiming it would not be proportionate to the population. According to the new Constitution there will be 165 constituencies for first-past-the post electoral system for the House of Representatives and 110under the proportional representation category.

The discussions have begun after the Election Commission asked the government to set up Constituency Delineation Commission and prepare a report at the earliest.

Nepal Condemns Kashmir Pilgrim Attack

Nepal has strongly condemned the terrorist attack on the Amarnath pilgrims in Jammu & Kashmir recently. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a press statement issued on 11th of July have expressed condolence and criticize the barbaric act.

Bangladesh

Sub-regional Connectivity between New Delhi, Dhaka, Kathmandu and Yangon

India has geared up its ground work on the roads and bridges to accelerate the proposed sub-regional connectivity with Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar. The strategic projects being constructed by the state run National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd. (NHIDCL) includes a bridge on river Feni in Tripura and a bridge over river Mechi. The former will link Agartala with Chittagong and the latter will link Bhadrapur in Nepal with Galgalia in Bihar. Simultaneously, a road project is also being developed between Aizawl and Tuipang in Mizoram, which is a part of Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Project. This will connect Kolkata with Sittwe port in Myanmar and then further to Mizoram by rail and road.

Other projects include a 300 Km. road network in Nepal’s Tarai region. Another road network is also being built to access connectivity between Aizawl in Mizoram with Kaladan in Myanmar, Imphal in Manipur and Tamu in Myanmar. These projects will help India project its strategic out-reach in the region. Japan is playing an instrumental role in all these developmental projects in the north-east of India.

The proposed connectivity projects will be instrumental in implementing the India-Myanmar-Thailand-Myanmar Trilateral Highway which shall run from Moreh in Manipur to Mae-sot in Thailand via Myanmar. Meanwhile, New Delhi and Dhaka have also decided to construct a bridge over Mizoram’s Khawthlangtuipui River to facilitate trade and improve communication. Mizoram shares a 318 Km. unfenced border with Bangladesh. A meeting was held in Tlabung in Mamit district. Mamit is adjacent to Khagrachari hill district in southeast Bangladesh. The bridge connectivity shall improve further the road connections between the two regions. It has been proposed that the location of the bridge be made in proximity to the nearest Land Custom Station (LCS) in Bangladesh.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina denounces Kashmir terror attack.

Bangladesh has condemned the brutal terrorist attack on the innocent pilgrims in Amarnath. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in a message to Prime Minister Modi, said, “we reaffirm our stand beside the people of India at this difficult time”.

Bhutan

Nothing significant to report

Sri Lanka

Port City a Vital Cog in China's OBOR Initiative, says CHEC

Liang Thow Ming, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer of the China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) in Port City Colombo (Pvt.) Ltd said that the Colombo International Financial City (CIFC), formally known as the Colombo Port City, would play an instrumental role in China’s One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiative because of Sri Lanka’s strategic location on the Maritime Silk Route. Liang added, “Where China is concerned, we have the OBOR initiative and Sri Lanka is right in the middle of the Maritime Silk Route. Therefore, CIFC plays a vital role there. Where Sri Lanka is concerned, it is looking at massive infrastructure investment and development in order to reinvigorate and uplift the economy,” he said.

He assured that though the project had suffered a setback by getting delayed by a year due to the suspension of operations in March 2016, it would be completed by 2041, giving Sri Lanka a world class city for South Asia. He further said that his company wants to lift Colombo to the same level of top metropolitan cities in the world, ‘by putting Singapore in Colombo or Dubai and maybe Tokyo.’

Though the breakwater creation had been affected by the work suspension suffered by their company, the reclamation of the land was on schedule and 45 per cent of the work had already been completed as of now, he said.

Debates Erupt Over Draft New Constitution, Inside the Parliament and Outside

Parliament erupted in heated arguments on July 6 when joint opposition parliamentary group leader Dinesh Gunawardane charged that a draft of the Constitution has been presented at a recent seminar at the BMICH. Chief opposition whip Anura Kumara Dissanayake said it was wrong as such a thing cannot happen when the steering committee had not come to an agreement on any draft. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe clarified that what was available as of today was summaries of different proposals that had been placed before the steering committee. "The Steering committee had not come up with any draft. I will not allow the amendment of article nine (that deals supreme place of Buddhism) as long as I remain the chairman of the steering committee," he said.

Next day, the ‘Sinhale Bala Kendraya’ held an awareness campaign regarding the new Constitution at which it was alleged that the government would not give prominence to Buddhism in the new Constitution, unlike the current Constitution. To reassure the Buddhist citizens, Prime Minister made it clear within two days he would come up with a new proposal to include provisions in the Constitution that would prohibit governments from interfering with internal matters of the three main Buddhist Chapters. He also assured that the Steering Committee of the Constitution Assembly will lay down its report soon.

While critics of new Constitution are saying that a Constitutional amendment instead of a brand new Constitution would have better served Sri Lanka, government is firm that Constitutional amendments will not serve because the Constitution has been amended for many times. The new Constitution would be brought only with the Parliament approval and peoples’ mandate at a referendum.

Meanwhile, The Joint Opposition is contemplating to quit the Constitution-making process until the government declares elections due at the moment. As of now, the local government elections are delayed by more than two years.

Protests over Damages Caused by the Uma Oya Project

Following the unprecedented protest rally and hartal against the Uma Oya Project during which Bandarwela town came to standstill, President Sirisena accused the former government of implementing the project without proper planning. President added that his predecessor had taken wrong political decision and defrauded funds amounting to millions through this project.

The Uma Oya Hydropower Complex (also known as Uma Oya Multipurpose Development Project or UOMDP) is an irrigation and hydroelectric complex currently under construction in the Badulla District. It involves construction of two reservoirs and one tunnel on the Uma Oya for power generation. The water will be diverted to Hambantota through the 25 km long underground tunnel across mountains in Bandarawela by creating a dam at Puhulpola in Welimada and a reservoir in Diaraba. The project at an estimated cost of US$ 529 million was launched by the previous government in 2012 with a US$ 450 million loan from Iran (around 85 per cent).

The project is considered as one of the worse environmental disasters in Sri Lanka. It has been called the "multi-destructive" project due its large negative effects. As a result of the project houses began collapsing, land surfaces cracking, wells and brooks drying up, residents being displaced and losing their traditional livelihood. It was launched without completing Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Central highlands of the country are under threat from the project. Residents from 42 villages have been affected by this project. Over 7,000 homes have been damaged and the fresh water springs and reservoirs have dried up in many areas.

Around two months ago, a leak occurred at the main tunnel of the Uma Oya Project but neither the Government nor the Iranian company in charge of the project, was able to plug the leak. This has resulted in 976 liters of water a second leaking from the tunnel. As such, over 84 million liters of water are leaking every single day.

President Sirisena has assured that the Government will look into the future activities of the project while giving priority to resolution of the problems. Government will look into the possibility of temporarily halting the works of the project, until solutions are found to alleviate the difficulties faced by the people.

Sri Lanka’s Top Court Dismisses Case Against Chinese Industrial Zone Deal

Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court dismissed a case against letting a Chinese company lease land in southern Sri Lanka, potentially ending a six-month delay in finalising the deal, part of China’s plans for a modern-day “Silk Road” across Asia. The case filed by opposition legislator Vasudeva Nanayakkara against cabinet ministers and others, arguing that letting the Chinese lease a 15,000-acre plot to develop an industrial zone near the Chinese-built port in Hambantota, was an “unlawful decision”.

China is in the final round of talks to take an 80 per cent stake in the industrial zone on a 99-year lease, as part of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. But sources close to its embassy in Colombo have said China was concerned over the case, which has delayed the formal signing of an agreement on the lease since early January. After signing an agreement on the port deal in December, state-run China Merchants Port Holdings had been expected to pay $1.12 billion for the stake. It has not yet paid; however, due to the delay in finalising the deal. China has already spent almost $2 billion on Hambantota, mostly on the port close to the busy East-West shipping route and on a new airport. It plans to spend much more.

Sri Lanka Deploys Troops to Tackle Dengue Crisis

Dengue, has surged in Sri Lanka to an extent where it has become an immediate health concern for the government. The scale of the spread of the disease has been unprecedented and caught the Sri Lankan authorities off guard. Health ministry officials admitted to 215 deaths in the first six months of this year compared with 78 in the whole of 2016. Over 71,000 people are infected in the first six months of this year, a record figure that far surpasses last year's total of 55,000. In order to tackle this menace, government has deployed hundreds of soldiers backed by police and health officials, to destroy mosquito breeding grounds.

President Visits Bangladesh

President Maithripala Sirisena is on a three day official state visit to Bangladesh from July 13-16, 2017. He held discussions with Bangladesh President Abdul Hamid and Premier Sheikh Hasina during the visit. He is also due to attend a business forum on the final day of the visit where several agreements will be signed between Sri Lankan and Bangladesh businessmen. On July 14, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka signed one agreement and 13 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) to boost up cooperation between the two countries in the areas of economy, agriculture, shipping, higher education, information and technology and media. Bilateral relations between the two countries have been generally friendly with virtually no major issues of conflict. Bangladesh-Sri Lanka joint working group was formed in 2013 to increase trade. The two countries are also planning to sign a shipping agreement.

Maldives

Government Coalition Loses Parliamentary Majority

The government coalition of Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and Maldives Development Alliance (MDA) has lost majority at the parliament after many MPs left the ruling party PPM, soon after the Attorney General filed a jurisdictional case with Supreme Court on July 10 requesting that seats of parliamentarians won as candidates of a particular party be taken away if the parliamentarians switch parties. The latest MPs to leave PPM are from Ihavandhoo, Mahibadhoo, Mahchangolhi, Thimarafushi, north Thiandhoo, Dhiddhoo, Dhangethi, Hanimaadhoo and Thinadhoo constituencies.

Currently PPM has 35 MPs in the parliament and a total 40 of the government coalition including the five MPs of MDA. While the Parliament has 85 seats, the only MP that is supporting the government without joining the opposition is the MP for Hulhu-Henveiru constituency, the Deputy Speaker, Moosa Manik. The main opposition party, MDP has 21 seats, Jumhooree Party (JP) has seven and Adhaalath Party has one MP making up the opposition coalition with 29 seats in the parliament. Although the remaining 16 MPs have not aligned with any political party, yet they are not with the present Maldivian government on many key issues. Losing out majority in Majlis can marks a political crisis for President Yameen.

Supreme Court on Parliamentarians Switching Parties

Supreme Court of the Maldives has passed a ruling stating that starting from July 13, 2017, those MPs who intend switch their political party will have to lose their seat at the parliament. The ruling was made with the unanimous vote of the three judges bench presided by the Chief Justice. The ruling would be in effect until the parliament passes an Anti-Defection bill. The Chief Justice, in his verdict has said that the judgment serves the purpose of maintaining peace in the country, as changing political parties causes loss of trust in democracy.

Immediately following this Supreme Court ruling, leaders of the opposition coalition, including Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Mohamed Nasheed, Adhaalath Party leader Imran Abdulla Leader of Jumhooree Party Qasim Ibrahim, agreed to elect the MPs who lose their seats in the by-election.

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