(Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Maldives)

March 16 – 31, 2017

Pakistan

Military Courts to Function for another 2 Years

After weeks of political wrangling and negotiations, both the National Assembly and the Senate passed the 28th Constitutional Amendment bill to reinstate the controversial Military Courts for another two years. Alongside, the Pakistani parliament also amended the Pakistan Army (Amendment) Act that facilitates the setting up of the military courts. The biggest stumbling block in reinstating the military courts was the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) which had proposed nine amendments to the government bill, four of which were ultimately incorporated in the Constitutional Amendment. These four amendments are the following: an accused has to be presented before a court within 24 hours of arrest; the law of evidence will be applied in the military courts; the accused will have the right to choose his counsel; and evidence against the accused will have to be presented within 24 hours.

Some analysts believe that these amendments will undermine the efficacy of the military courts whose primary purpose was to function as ’kangaroo’ courts to administer summary justice to terrorists and eliminate them with a veneer of legality and without the limitations imposed by the concept of ‘due process’. The opposition parties also forced the government to accept the constitution of a Parliamentary Committee on National Security to “monitor and oversee security related issues and the implementation of the National Action Plan.

Energy Crisis Back with a Vengeance

All the tall claims of the Nawaz Sharif government of ending the power crisis that has dogged Pakistan for nearly a decade now came crashing down with supply of electricity failing to keep pace with demand partly on account of mismanagement and partly on account of faulty planning. With the sudden spike in temperature, the duration of load-shedding was anything between four to six hours in urban areas and up to 15 hours in rural areas in Punjab and between 16-18 hours in rural Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The average gap between demand and supply was around 5000 MW. The blame for the deterioration in the power supply situation is attributed to the old problem of circular debt, which results from a mismatch between electricity prices, government subsidy, bill collection and line losses. In 2013, the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PMLN) government had in fell stroke cleared the circular debt of around US$ 5 billion. But it was only a matter of time before the circular debt problem came back to haunt the energy sector. The reason was that the mismatch listed above was never addressed adequately. Because of the circular debt and non-payment of dues (partly for reasons that are structural in nature and partly because the government is holding back on dues of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in order to control fiscal deficit), the IPPs have either not been producing power or have been running below capacity, but are still claiming capacity charges. What has also contributed to the power crisis is the fact that the hydropower generation is just around a quarter of its capacity. Meanwhile, a row is brewing between the government and the IPPs, which have invoked the sovereign guarantees given by the government. The failure to honour these sovereign guarantees will undermine whatever little confidence there still is among foreign investors in Pakistan. More crucially, questions are now being raised over how Pakistan will ever be able to pay the Chinese power companies which are setting up power plants under the CPEC.

Government clears Raheel Sharif Commanding ‘Islamic NATO’

Despite having given an undertaking that parliament will be taken into confidence before any decision on joining the Saudi-led 39 country ‘Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism’ (IMAFT), the government is reported to have issued a No-objection Certificate (NOC) to the recently retired army chief, Gen Raheel Sharif, to head the IMAFT. The NOC was apparently issued after an understanding was reached between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The Pakistani defence minister disclosed in an interview that the Saudis had been informed of the nod given by government of Pakistan. According to a report that appeared in an Urdu newspaper in January, Gen Raheel Sharif will recruit a brigade strength of retired Pakistan army personnel, including officers, to serve as his core team in the IMAFT. Meanwhile, the Pakistan foreign office spokesman raised eyebrows when he revealed that Pakistan was already a part of the Saudi-led military alliance. Given that the government had never admitted joining the alliance and had promised to consult parliament before joining the proposed alliance, the acceptance of being part of the alliance didn’t go down well with the opposition.
Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) was in the forefront of the voices raised opposing the government decision. Expectedly enough, the religious establishment viewed the decision through the sectarian prism, with Sunni religious parties and clerics lauding the move and the Shias excoriating the decision. But while the Shia opposition to joining a Saudi-led alliance is unlikely to change, it appears as though the PTI has piped down after a meeting between the army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa and Imran Khan. The grapevine is that during this meeting, Bajwa told Imran Khan to drop his opposition to the decision to join IMAFT because the Pakistan army endorsed and supported the move. There were also reports that Bajwa had met the Iranian ambassador to Islamabad to keep Iran in the loop. Even so, after the decision became public, the Iranian ambassador publicly expressed his country’s reservations on it.

Gen. Bajwa Visits Beijing; Reports of Agreement on Missiles Production

The Pakistan Army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa went on a 3-day official tour of China where he held meetings with top civilian and military officials. According to the Pakistan military spokesman, the Chinese expressed “complete understanding of the geopolitical and economic-cum-security environment of the region and its implications for the two countries”. The two sides also deliberated on the issue of terrorism with a focus on groups like Al Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and East Turkestan Islamic Movement. The Chinese foreign minister reportedly reiterated China’s “full spectrum support to Pakistan”. But the most interesting development was a report in the Global Times that revealed that both sides had discussed co-producing ballistic missiles and advanced military aircraft. According to the newspaper, “China had provided authorisation to Pakistan to produce ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles and main battle tanks in Pakistan”. As is their wont, the Chinese foreign ministry claimed it wasn’t aware of any such missile cooperation agreement. If the past is anything to go by, then the quasi-denial by the Chinese foreign ministry is nothing but an obfuscation, similar to what has been said in the case of Gwadar port where despite Chinese denials all evidence suggests that a Chinese naval base is likely to come up.

Indus Waters Commissioners Meet But Disagree on what they Spoke About

After a gap of nearly two years, a meeting of the Permanent Commission on Indus Waters was held in Lahore in the third week of March. The go-ahead given by the government of India for the meeting was seen by a section of Pakistani analysts as a positive move and an indication of a creeping thaw in the strained bilateral relationship. But the Pakistani foreign office dampened any optimism expressed in the Pakistani media by making it clear that the meeting was a routine bilateral exercise and until and unless India was willing to discuss Kashmir, there could be no forward movement.

Be that as it may, even before the meeting of the Indus Waters commissioners, there appeared to be a disagreement on the agenda of talks. While the Indian side wanted to discuss Pakistani objections to the Kishanganga and Ratle projects, the Pakistanis were loath to discussing these projects because they had already approached the World Bank to arbitrate on these projects. For their part, the Pakistanis wanted to discuss Indian plans for three hydel power plants – Pakul Dal, Miyar and Lower Kalnai on Chenab river and its tributary. Meanwhile, the Water and Power minister of Pakistan announced that the US had intervened in the water issue between India and Pakistan and that both countries would hold talks on the Kishanganga and Ratle projects in Washington in April. After the talks concluded, the Pakistanis announced that India had withdrawn the design of Miyar and had agreed to reconsider Pakistan's observations on Pakul Dal and Lower Kalnai projects. India however denied that it had agreed to alter the design of the Miyar project in deference to Pakistan's objections. Instead, this decision had been taken prior to the meeting in Pakistan and was motivated by topological issues. There is also no clarity as yet whether India would be attending the proposed meeting in Washington in the second week of April.

Afghanistan

Taliban Hint at Willingness to Participate in Moscow Meeting

The Taliban have hinted at their participation in the 12 nation meeting being hosted by Russia in Moscow in the second week of April to discuss peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. Taliban officials have been quoted as saying that they could attend the Moscow conference if invited. According to reports in the Pakistani media, the Afghan government is no longer resisting Russian efforts to bring the Taliban on the talks table. For their part, the Taliban are also believed to be open to Russian and Chinese efforts for reconciliation in Afghanistan. The Pakistani media has claimed that Pakistan has been impressing upon the Taliban to participate in the Russian-led peace process.

There are reports that Pakistan hosted a Taliban delegation in Islamabad and pressed them to become part of the Moscow meeting. Pakistan has also been urging the Taliban to go slow on their anticipated Spring Offensive lest it muddy the waters for the peace talks. By all accounts, the Pakistani pressure on Taliban is in part motivated by the greater strategic realignments that Pakistan is pushing for in the region. Pakistan is hoping for a Russian-Chinese-Pakistani compact that outmanoeuvres the US (which has already been accusing Russia of legitimizing the Taliban and supplying them with weapons) and India, and places Pakistan as the pivot of the Russian and Chinese policy in the south and central Asian region. By delivering its Taliban proxies, Pakistan calculates that it will be able to position itself in the driving seat in this region. Meanwhile, the Afghan foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani has asked the Americans to send more troops to Afghanistan to fight both the Taliban and the Islamic State terrorists. He has also said that Afghanistan is no longer asking Pakistan to deliver the Taliban to the peace table, rather it now wants Pakistan to take action against the Taliban leadership.

Another Attempt at Pak-Afghan Reconciliation

Following the meeting brokered by the British National Security Advisor between the Afghan National Security Advisor, Hanif Atmar, and Prime Minister of Pakistan's Advisor on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, both countries agreed to take tangible confidence building measures to address each other’s concerns regarding security and terrorism. This included forming a joint mechanism to counter the common threat from terrorism. Both sides also exchanged lists of terrorists wanted by them who were believed to have taken sanctuary in the other country. One of the immediate outcomes of this meeting between Atmar and Aziz was that the Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced the immediate opening of the border with Afghanistan which had been closed for three weeks. Alongside this development of reopening the border with Afghanistan, Pakistan also started to fence its border with Afghanistan as part of its border management strategy. Announcing the decision to begin fencing, the Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa said that priority would be accorded to fencing the border in Bajaur and Mohmand agencies which are ‘high threat zones’. The fencing is part of an elaborate plan which includes building over 400 small ‘forts’ along the Afghan border and deploying radars and sensors to detect movement of people.

Strategically Important Sangin District Falls to Taliban

The Afghan government suffered a major setback after the Taliban captured the strategic district of Sangin in Helmand province. The control of Sangin allows the Taliban to connect Helmand with Kandahar and jeopardises the already tenuous control of the government in Kabul over large swathes of territory in southern Afghanistan. The fall of Sangin has come amidst Taliban claims that they fully control 34 districts, contest 167, have a significant presence in 52, a minimal presence in 6 and zero presence in 89 districts. There are also reports that the Taliban are poised to seize control of major cities in Afghanistan for the first time since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.

With the security situation deteriorating, the US appears to have agreed to bolster the capacity and capability of the Afghan troops. According to a spokesman of the Afghan defence ministry, the Americans are expected to give up to 200 helicopters and other aircraft as part of a four-year plan to build the sinews of the Afghan forces to battle the Taliban. The plans also involves a doubling of the strength of Afghan special forces and beefing up the intelligence services. Already, the Afghan air force has received four A-29 Super Tocano light attack aircraft that are capable of close air attack, reconnaissance missions and escort missions.

Nepal

PM Dahal Confident of Madhes-Centric Parties Poll Participation

Prime Minister Dahal is confident of participation of Madhes-centric parties in the local level elections slated for May, 14. Dahal re-iterated that the elections would be held with the participation of the agitating parties. To persuade the agitating UDMF, reportedly, a meeting is being shortly called at the Prime Minister’s residence. PM has also indicated that China too wishes to see the elections in Nepal on time since this would create an environment of political stability.

RPP Selects Leaders for Election Campaign

The pro-Royalty Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) has decided to hold 14 mass meetings in various parts of the country in the run up to the May 14 local level elections. A Central Election Mobilization Committee meeting presided over by Chairman Kamal Thapa formed a three member committee to coordinate between the government and the party. It is headed by Vice Chairman Buddhiman Tamang and has Sushil Shrestra and Joint General Secretary Nilkantha Kafle as members.

Prime Minister Dahal’s Visit to China

As was reported earlier, Prime Minister Dahal visited China (March 23-29) primarily to attend (March 23-26) the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. Chinese and Nepalese foreign policy experts view Dahal’s visit as a positive development in strengthening bi-lateral relations, especially in the context of economic cooperation between the two countries. Before embarking on the visit, the Prime Minister held consultations with former Prime Ministers and some China experts.

Though no formal agreements were reached (nor was one expected) on the One Belt One Road (OBOR) or on cross-border railway links or bilateral issues, PM Dahal sent out a clear message that his government viewed OBOR initiative positively as one designed to improve connectivity between the two countries and encouraging Chinese investments in Nepal. He said that if Nepal became part of OBOR, constructing raid linkages, transit facilities and even future free trade can be carried forward in easy terms. Dahal added that he will provide continuity to the understandings reached in the past for improving bilateral cooperation. China is also ready to support Nepal in extending rail linkages, boosting trade and connectivity.

Following the Conference, Dahal held meetings with Xi-Jingping on March 27th. Xi-Jinping pointed out-that China and Nepal’s friendly cooperation conforms to the fundamental interest of the people of two countries. He stressed that the two sides should continuously enhance political mutual trust and exchanges at all levels. Both sides should take the OBOR as an opportunity to promote cooperation in connectivity, free trade assignment, agriculture and post-disaster reconstruction. He further pledged $1 million support to Nepal’s local level elections on May 14. Dahal thanked China for its long term support especially her assistance in Nepal’s post-disaster reconstruction. He supported OBOR and expressed Nepal’s commitment to China’s policy on Tibet and Taiwan.

Bangladesh

PM Hasina’s Visit to New Delhi

During the visit of PM Sheikh Hasina to New Delhi (April 7-10), the two countries are expected to unveil a joint –road map for bilateral cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region. This is in sync with Prime Minister Modi’s initiative to develop blue economy partnerships with the littoral states of the Indian Ocean region to harness maritime resources and ensure peace. This will strengthen efforts to keep peace in the common maritime region of Bay of Bengal. The blue economy will open new opportunities for both India and Bangladesh. It may be recalled that Prime Minister Modi’s initiative of blue economy which was launched in 2015 is a multi-disciplinary approach for the exploitation of Hydrocarbons and other marine resources, security partnership among the countries in the region, therefore assume importance.

Considerable significance is being attached to the visit of the Bangladesh PM, her first in seven years and perhaps her last in the current tenure. Delhi and Dhaka are expected to sign more than 40 agreements, MoUs in different areas, including Defence Cooperation Agreement. Further, there will be several MoU’s and agreements on cooperation in National Security, Shipping, Science and Technology, Power and Energy, Education, Commerce and Information, Infrastructure projects and Communication Technology. In the energy sector, Dhaka is working on a MoU between India, Bangladesh and Bhutan for a joint investment in a 1,124 megawatt hydro power project in Bhutan for.
(A detailed assessment report on Hasina’s visit has been uploaded on the VIF website recently).

Sri Lanka

Film Star Rajinikanth Cancels Jaffna Visit

Tamil cinema superstar Rajinikanth cancelled his impending visit to Sri Lanka scheduled on 9 and 10 April after groups like Vaiko's MDMK Party and Thirumavalavan's VCK opposed his trip on the ground of ‘betrayal of Tamil cause’. Rajinikanth was to travel to Jaffna and Vavuniya to hand over to Sri Lankan Tamils, the keys to 150 homes built for them by a foundation promoted by Lyca Productions, that is producing the his upcoming movie '2.0'. The homes were constructed at a cost of Rs 22 crore by the foundation that has been working to rebuild schools that were destroyed during the civil war in northern and eastern Sri Lanka. Rajinikanth was also to speak at a public meeting in Jaffna. While succumbing to the political pressure, Rajanikanth maintained that he wanted to use this visit to impress upon the Sri Lankan President the problems being faced by Indian fishermen in the deep waters between India and Sri Lanka. As such, his visit was going to benefit none else but the Lankan Tamils.

The Sri Lankan Tamils in Jaffna are disappointed that Rajinikanth is unable to visit their land. Shivaji Lingam, a senior Tamil leader in Sri Lanka, said: "We apologise to Rajinikanth for the trauma he had to go through due to the protest against his visit to Sri Lanka. We were really hoping he could be a source through which our problems could be brought to the limelight. We really hope he can make it to Sri Lanka in the future without such protests."

This is not the first time that the Tamil politicians have targeted Lyca Productions. In 2014, the production house had faced opposition when pro-Tamil outfits opposed its production of 'Kaththi', as they suspected that Lyca had business links with then Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa. The movie was released subsequently and went to become a huge success.

India Could Develop Colombo, Trincomalee, KKS Ports: Minister

Ports and Shipping Minister Arjuna Ranatunga has said though China is deeply rooted in Hambantota port project, Sri Lanka has three other major ports in Colombo, Trincomalee and Kankesanthurai where India could collaborate for development. Government of Sri Lanka is looking at an Asian subcontinent investor to partner with the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) to invest and take over the East Container Terminal (of Colombo port) in private-public partnership mode. Minister Ranatunga said that India is also "very keen" on Trincomalee Port. He said a Singaporean company, Subarna Jurong, is doing a feasibility report on developing the Trincomalee port city, while the Asian Development Bank is covering the port development project. Lanka IOC, a unit of the Indian Oil Corporation, maintains several oil tanks at the Trincomalee. Ranatunga said the feasibility report would be submitted in three months, and the government would take a call after that. The Government of Sri Lanka is also looking to develop the Kankesanthurai port in the north which is quite close to India. It is not a container port; it will be more for transportation, for cement and people.

According to Sri Lankan media reports, India has shown interest in the East Terminal and Colombo port from where Seventy-five per cent of the trans-shipment goes to India. It is believed that the state-run Container Corporation of India has formed a consortium with APM Terminals B V, John Keells Holdings and Maersk Line to bid for the development of East Container Terminal in Colombo. The total project value is likely to be about $ 550-600 million. The South Terminal of the Colombo port is already owned and operated by state-run China Merchant Holdings (International).Colombo Port is the busiest in Sri Lanka and ranks among the top 35 ports in the world.

Lanka Wants to Reduce China’s Stakes in Hambantota Port Deal

After signing an agreement in December,2016, state-run China Merchants Port Holdings is expected to pay US$ 1.12 billion for a 99-year lease on an 80 percent stake in Sri Lanka’s southern Hambantota port – part of Beijing’s ambitious plans to create a modern-day ‘Silk Road’ across Asia. But the deal – and the Chinese investment that Sri Lanka needs to ease a mounting debt crisis – has been delayed by legal and political obstacles on a related project: the development of a nearby 15,000-acre industrial zone. The Sri Lankan Government wants the Chinese company to cut its stake in this port project by up to a quarter, as part of a renegotiation aimed at blunting public and political opposition to the deal. As per the media reports, in a draft agreement, the Chinese firm would still hold majority stake in the port, but would divest up to 20 percent stake to a Sri Lankan company after 10 years. The amended deal comes after the project was delayed amid protests by trade unions, landowners and political opposition led by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and some current coalition government ministers. In January, hundreds of protesters refused to vacate their land and clashed with police at the opening of the industrial zone – the first violent opposition to Chinese investment in Sri Lanka.

India and Sri Lanka to Conduct Joint Oceanographic Survey

The Indian and Sri Lankan Navy will be conducting a joint oceanographic survey off the Southern Coast of Sri Lanka from 30 March to 11 May 2017.The aim of the joint survey is to update all the navigational charts covering the southern Sri Lankan waters with the latest hydrographic data and to further cooperation between the two countries in the field of hydrography. The survey will be useful in enhancing the level of navigational safety of all ships visiting Sri Lanka.

Indian Naval ship INS Darshak, an indigenously designed and constructed vessel that is fitted with the latest state of the art survey equipment would visit Sri Lanka to undertake the survey. Personnel from Survey Branch of the Sri Lanka Navy would be embarked onboard the ship to take part in the conduct of the survey. During the survey, extensive training would also be conducted for the embarked Sri Lanka Navy personnel. This would assist in capacity building of Sri Lanka Navy’s Hydrographic Department and would provide an opportunity for both navies to learn from each other and to build on the already existing high level of interoperability between the two navies.

Maldives

PPM President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom Dismissed from the Party

Disciplinary Committee of the ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) has decided (March 27) to dismiss its party President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom from the party that he himself formed in 27 October 2011. The Disciplinary Committee which consisted of five members, made seven accusations against Maumoon namely Joining Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and promoting the opposition, openly working against PPM, openly criticizing government projects and creating animosity towards the government, creating allegiance without PPM’s consent, using the PPM logo and flag without the party’s consent, challenging the verdict to handover PPM leadership to President Yameen. Responding to the dismissal the elder Gayoomsaid that the ‘Dharubaaru Faction’ (under President Yameen) had no authority to dismiss members.

This dismissal is a direct outcome of the an agreement signed on March 24 among the former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, former President Mohamed Nasheed, Leader of Jumhooree Party Qasim Ibrahim, and the Leader of the Adhaalath Party Imran Abdulla, to work against the Abdulla Yameen government. The agreement states that the heads of all four political parties “agree to work jointly and together in matters agreed to between the said leaders, both in the Parliament and in the political environment in order to achieve the aforementioned objectives.” This was seen as the last straw by the Maumoon Gayoom faction against his step brother Abdulla Yameen, the current President of Maldives.

In it worthwhile to note that former Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga has welcomed this agreement between the four parties to work together to ensure democratic governance and the guarantee of civil and political rights to the citizens of the Maldives.

Mohamed Nasheed Charged with Terrorism over Yameen’s Arrest

Former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed, now in exile, has been charged with terrorism over alleged arbitrary detention of President Abdulla Yameen in 2010, when he had been the Mulaku representative in the People’s Majlis. Yameen was taken under custody on 1:45 am, July 15, 2010, and was kept in Aarah until July 23, 2010. Not only Nasheed, but his Minister of Defense, Ameen Faisal has also been charged with terrorism over Yameen’s detention. Meanwhile, Nasheed has already been sentenced to 13 years in prison for arbitrary detention of former Chief Judge of Criminal Court, Abdulla Mohamed during his administration. Thus in the light of the previous charge of terrorism, Yameen government seems desperate to isolate Mohamed Nasheed.

‘No Confidence Motion’ against Majlis Speaker Defeated

Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) had submitted a no-confidence motion against Speaker of Majlis, MP Abdulla Maseeh Mohamed, which was defeated on March 27 after 48 lawmakers voted against the motion. During the debate on the motion against, Majority Leader, Vilimale’ MP Ahmed Nihan Hussain Manik called for a roll-call vote instead of electronic voting. This caused an uproar with lawmakers from MDP, Jumhoory Party, and the faction within ruling PPM loyal to former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom protesting a roll-call vote as irregular. 13 of the protesting lawmakers were named, and removed from the Majlis. MDP is determined to resubmit the motion to the Majlis.

United States has expressed concern over “irregularities” which it says impeded a free and fair vote during the no-confidence vote taken on the Speaker of People’s Majlis of Maldives. Similarly, the UK high commission in Colombo, Sri Lanka issued a statement expressing the government’s concern over the vote.