(October 1-15, 2016)
Pakistan
News Controversy
Following a meeting of Corps Commanders and Principal Staff Officers, the ISPR issued a statement expressing serious concern over the ‘feeding of a false and fabricated news story’ which they called a ‘serious breach of security’. The Dawn story about how Pakistan was getting internationally isolated because of the presence of ‘non-state’ actors who were spreading terrorism in the region and how the civilians were blocked from taking any action against these terrorists by the military’s intelligence services has raised the hackles of the military brass which isn’t questioning the content of the story but the intent of the government, which is believed to have planted/fed/leaked the controversial story. The Army is insisting that people responsible for the leaked story be identified and taken to task which seems to have caught the civilian government in a bind.
For a few days after the story was published, despite making waves, it didn’t appear to shake up the system. Expectedly enough, the day after the publication the PMO issued a flat denial of the contents of the story. The Punjab CM, who was reported to have told the ISI chief of interference in crackdown on terrorist groups, also issued a denial. A couple of days later the PMO issued yet another denial. But clearly, the army was seething at a somewhat feeble effort by the civilian government to send out a positive message to the international community at the military’s expense. A somewhat panicky government tried to make the reporter the scapegoat and put his name on the Exit Control List. But that move backfired after the entire media was up in arms and, what is worse, there was an extremely negative reaction from the very countries that the government was trying to reach out to through the story.
It is almost being taken as given that the story was ‘fed’ by someone in the PMO and is being seen as a sort of ‘Memogate 2.0’ – the scandal in 2011 in which it was alleged that the then Pakistan Ambassador to US, Hussain Haqqani, had sought US support for the then PPP government to cut the Pakistan Army, which was on the defensive after the Abbottabad operation to take out Osama bin Laden, in order to bring in necessary reforms in the foreign and security policy of the Pakistani state. The Dawn story is being seen as part of the civil-military tussle wherein the civilians are using Pakistan's growing isolation to claw back space from the army on foreign and security policy (including on the issue of using terrorist organisations as an instrument of state policy). It is also being linked to the impending transition in the army, with the current army chief due to retire in November. There are rumours that the army chief might either be angling for an extension, or at the very least wants his nominee to be appointed his successor, and the Dawn story was a push-back by the PM who neither wants to give an extension, nor wants him to have a say in who will become the next chief. At the same time, the sub-text of the story seeks to win international support for the civilian government which is pushing the envelope on the issue of civilian supremacy, and as a result of this support seeks to create space for the civilian government by easing the mounting pressure by Western countries on Pakistan to clean up its act and also making the West lean on India to back off from the pressure it is mounting on Pakistan. The entire affair is also being linked to the anti-Nawaz Sharif campaign that Imran Khan is planning to launch on Oct 30 (the new date for shutting down the country is Nov 2). Imran Khan could once again become the Army’s cats-paw to put the government on the defensive and snatch concessions for it. The question however is whether this time Nawaz Sharif will dig in his heels and refuse to kowtow before the army, or will throw in the towel yet again.
Imran Khan Readies for Final Assault on Nawaz Sharif
Encouraged by the huge turnout at the Raiwind rally on September 30, Imran Khan has announced that he will now shutdown Islamabad on October 30 (the date of the protest was subsequently shifted to November 2) to force Nawaz Sharif to either present himself for accountability and clear his name in the Panama Papers scandal or resign from office. The success of the Raiwind march, despite the fact that none of the other opposition parties participated in it, seems to have borne out Imran Khan’s conviction that he can go on a ‘solo flight’ and still achieve his objective of seeing the back of Nawaz Sharif. Going by his public posturing, it would appear Imran Khan intends going for broke by shutting down Islamabad. More than the usual bandh, this is a virtual war that he seems have declared, what with his threat to shut down the airport, railroads and roads.
Imran Khan did raise many eyebrows when after the Raiwind march, he declared a boycott of the Joint Sitting of Parliament on the issue of Kashmir and India’s new aggressive policy because he no longer accepted Nawaz Sharif as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Apart from his broadside against Nawaz Sharif, he also took pot-shots at the PPP by calling on the party to adopt a ‘minus-one’ formula – get rid of Asif Zardari. He charged the PPP of being hand-in-glove with Nawaz Sharif, which analysts feel has reduced the chance of any sort of joint opposition move against the government. Imran Khan however remains confident that he can successfully lay siege on Islamabad and bring the PM down. The rising political temperature at a time when civil-military tensions are heating up have once again fuelled speculation about the future trajectory of politics in Pakistan. Chances of a direct intervention by the military, however, remain low.
Money Laundering Case against Altaf Husain Closed
In a reprieve for the MQM supremo, Altaf Husain, UK’s Metropolitan Police has closed the money laundering case against him and will release the hundreds of thousands of pounds in cash impounded from MQM properties. The money laundering case was one of three cases – the other two being an investigation into the murder of the slain MQM leader Imran Farooq and an investigation into hate speech by Altaf inciting violence in Karachi – that had been initiated in the UK police against the MQM leader. Although the British authorities are insisting that the hate speech investigations will continue, there is as yet no direct link between Altaf and Imran Farooq’s killers. Effectively this means that for the foreseeable future Altaf is off the legal hook in the UK.
The closure of the money laundering case has enthused Altaf’s loyalists, both in Karachi and London and they have since renewed their efforts to re-take control of the party by reorganising the party set-up in Pakistan. In recent weeks, Altaf’s hold on the party had weakened considerably after almost the entire leadership of the party in Pakistan severed contact with the party secretariat in London. The MQM-Pakistan led by Dr Farooq Sattar had even expelled Altaf’s lieutenants in London from the party. In turn, the Altaf loyalists expelled Dr Sattar and other senior leaders based in Karachi. What is more, a new interim coordination committee was announced by the London Secretariat to take charge of the party affairs in Pakistan. In a video message to his followers in Pakistan, Altaf Husain passed instructions that henceforth they should only contact the London office for instructions.
Parliamentary Resolution on Kashmir Passed by Less than 1/5th of Members
A joint sitting of parliament summoned to express support to and solidarity with the Kashmiris passed an expectedly obnoxious resolution reaffirming the ‘moral, political and diplomatic’ support of Pakistan to Kashmiris and condemning alleged Indian atrocities. The reality of the commitment (or is it lip service?) of the Pakistani parliamentarians to the ‘Kashmir cause’ was however revealed by the fact that the final resolution was passed unanimously by only 19% of the total strength of both houses of parliament. Even at the beginning of the joint sitting, when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made his speech, only 27% of the total MPs was present. Both the speech and the resolution was the usual litany of lies and allegations against India’s alleged human rights violations and the standard breast-beating on how the Kashmir issue has been neglected by the international community.
In the very same session, opposition members criticised the government for allowing ‘non-state actors’ – jihadist terrorist groups – a free run in the country, which undermined the efforts of Pakistan to win international support.
Afghanistan
$15 Billion Aid Pledges over Next Four Years for Afghanistan
The outcome of the Brussels Conference on Afghanistan – around $15 billion in aid was pledged by members of the international community for Afghanistan over the next four years – is good news for the Afghan government which is being hemmed in by the Taliban offensive in both the north and south of the country. Although a lot of the aid comes with riders – the EU countries want Afghanistan to take by citizens not accorded refugee status – and insistence on reform, the aid pledges will infuse a degree of confidence in the ability of the Afghan government to keep the ship of state afloat. What is more, the fact that the international community is willing to put money in Afghanistan is also being seen as a sign that the Afghan government will not be allowed to collapse in the face of a Taliban onslaught.
Although the Europeans were insistent on renewing a peace dialogue, though no one really had a good enough idea as to how this would be achieved, much less if such a dialogue will even be fruitful. Nevertheless, the peace mantra was chanted endlessly at the conference. The one surprise pledge made in the conference was by Pakistan which announced an additional $500 million in economic development projects. Apart from the question of where Pakistan will get this money, there is also the troubling question as to what good will come of financing development projects from one hand even as the Pakistanis use the other hand to demolish all the good that has been done in Afghanistan since 9/11. In all likelihood, the Pakistani offer is aimed at matching the $1 billion in aid that was announced by India during the visit of President Ashraf Ghani in September.
Security Situation
In continuing violence against civilians, terrorists attacked two Shia targets on the occasion of Moharram. In the first attack, a Shia shrine in Kabul was targeted, killing around 17 people and wounding over 60. In another attack in Balkh province, Shia worshippers were attacked by a remote controlled bomb, killing 14 people. Earlier, a suicide bombing in Lashkargah killed 14 people, including 10 policemen.
The attack in Lashkargah in Helmand province was seen as part of the Taliban offensive in the province. Officials claim that nearly 85% of the province is now under the control of the Taliban who are relentlessly making a push to capture the capital city. According to one report, nearly five provincial capitals are now being threatened by the Taliban – Kunduz, Pul-i-Khumri, Farah city, Lashkargah and Tarin Kot. The Taliban once again entered Kunduz earlier this month and captured large parts of the city before they were forced out. But the fact that Kunduz had virtually fallen for the second time in the span of a year has badly shaken confidence in the ability of the security forces to secure the city. In the south, the Taliban massacred nearly 100 security force personnel. The troops were retreating under an agreement with the Taliban who reneged on the agreement and ambushed the retreating troops.
Nepal
Political Developments
Constitution Implementation Process has Started
PM Dahal stated that the constitution implementation process in the country has begun with the establishment of high courts in the seven provinces. He further said that along with constitution’s implementation, the government had successfully addressed the Madhesi uprising and internal unity. CPN (Maoist Centre) leader Barshaman Pun stressed on the need for agreement and cooperation between the political parties for implementing the constitution.
Leaders face a tough Balancing Act in addressing Concerns of Agitating Parties
The governing CPN (Maoist Centre) and Nepali congress are facing an uphill task to redraw the federal boundaries to bring the disgruntled parties on board without minimising their influence at the existing federal setup. The government may have to alter the map of up to four provinces toaddress the grievances of the agitating communities including the Madhesi and Tharu. Interlocutors are of the opinion that the government and the Madhesis have reached an informal understating to carve a province in the western plains. Row over five disputed districts namely – Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Kailali and Kanchanpur may be resolved soon. But a section of both the ruling parties and the main opposition UML are unlikely to support such alterationsbecause of the numerical advantages they hold over the current federal setup and the subsequent backlash. According to the proposal, the hill districts of Province 5 will be realignedwith the hill dominated Province 4 and Province 6. The government is likely to face even bigger resistance in the far west and the east. This is being opposed by the ruling parties. The top leadership including NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML vice-chairman Bhim Rawal and Maoist leader Lekh Raj Bhatta, are against meeting the Tharu group’s demand to establish a united Tharuhat from Nawal Parasi to Kanchanpur. Rawal warned of the dire consequences of protests all over the country if boundaries were revised without its significance.
Support to Government will be Restrained if No Amendment Process is Initiated
Although the ruling CPN (Maoist Centre) and Nepali Congress alliance had pledged in a 3 point agreement signed with the Sanghiya Sathabandhan, to resolve the Madhes crisis, very little has been done so far to solve the crisis. The agitating parties criticized the government for its inaction and are growing suspicious of the government’s intent once the two self-imposed deadlines to register the constitution amendment proposal were missed. Madhes-based parties have warned of withdrawing support from the government if there was further delay in registering the constitution amendment proposal in the Nepalese Parliament. However, co-chairman of the SanghiyaSamajbadi forum of Nepal, Rajendra Shrestha, said that the agitating parties prefer to give the government some more breathing time.
Chief whip of the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party of Nepal, Dilnath Giri said that the constitution could be amended only on the basis of consensus and cooperation among the political parties as no single party commanded two third majority in Parliament which is required for any constitutional amendment. Maoist Centre leader Haribol Gajurel said that the big parties were holding informal consultations regarding constitutional amendment
External Relations
Nepal to initiate Moves for Holding 19th SAARC Summit
According to Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat, Nepal would initiate discussions with the member countries to try to hold the 19th SAARC Summit which were postponed post URI attacks and subsequent decision by India and other countries to boycott the summit. The summit was scheduled to take place in Islamabad on Oct 10-11.
PM Dahal meets BRICS and BIMSTEC Leaders
The Nepalese PM will be holding met several BRICS leaders, including Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the side-lines of BRICS Summit, held in Goa on October 15-16. Likewise, Dahal also met leaders of BIMSTEC countries who were in Goa under the BRICS-BIMSTEC outreach programme. The joint summit aimed to enhance cooperation between BRICS and BIMSTEC members in multiple sectors, including tourism, connectivity, trade and investment, technology and energy.
Bangladesh
Political Developments
Prime Minister defines government’s priority to serve the people
Sheikh Hasina directed all concerned authorities to think about the welfare of its citizens and adopt long-term plans to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs). Addressing the National Skills Development Council (NSDC) on October 5, the premier requested all to think first about the welfare of people, how to deliver on the promises made to the people, how to make the country prosperous and how to raise the dignity of the country. She further said that there was a need for long term plan along with short-term ones to achieve the SDGs simultaneously.
No possibility of mid-term election: Ershad
Special Envoyto the Prime Minister and Jatiya Party (JP) chairman Gen Ershad ruled out the possibility of holding any mid-term elections. He further assured that the next general elections will be held timely and the Jatiya Party will take part in it.
External Developments
China – Bangladesh ink 40 deals worth $ 20 billion during Xi’s Jinping’s visit
Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a brief visit to Bangladesh on his way to Goa to attend the BRICS summit. Xi’s trip, the first by a Chinese President in 30 years was aimed at boosting China’s investment in all infrastructural projects and technology development programmes. Bangladeshi and Chinese firms signed $ 13.6 billion in trade and investment deals on the sidelines of the Chinese President’s visit. These deals are in addition to $ 20 billion in loan agreements that the two governments assigned on Oct 14, 2016. A spokesperson of Bangladesh’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) clarified that the deals reflect Dhaka’s improving image especially after the recent crackdown on militants post bakery attack of July 1, 2016 and the ongoing bloggers and foreign aid workers being hacked in Bangladesh past three years. He added, “The agreement sends a positive signal to the rest of the world that Bangladesh is a safe investment destination”.
While welcoming the Chinese Investors to invest in the Economic Zones, PM Hasina said, “We are on the verge of launching the exclusive Economic and Industrial Zone in Chittagong that would be a landmark event in our economic investment and trade co-operation”.
In a significant development, the Sheikh Hassina’s Government extended its support to Xi’s Ore Belt, One Road Initiative over which India has expressed reservations in the past. President Xi described his Dhaka visit as a “historical turning point”. Beijing and Dhaka also inked an agreement to conduct a feasibility study on China-Bangladesh free-trade agreement. It may be recalled that till now Dhaka had been reluctant to sign a bilateral FTA with China and instead sought unilateral duty-free and quota free access for its product in the Chinese market.
Bangladesh to be with India if attacked
Bangladesh Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan said that Bangladesh will stand by India if attacked by any enemy country. The Home Minister came up with the remarks at a dialogue with Bangladesh Secretariat Reporters Forum on October 4. He further stressed BD Prime Minister’s policy of zero-tolerance towards terrorism. Both the countries have been working towards this direction and have also agreed to bring down the killing along the bordering areas.
Sri Lanka
In the past fortnight, the dominant theme of India- Sri Lanka relations related to Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s three-day visit to India from October 5, 2016. Apart from calling on President Pranab Mukherjee and bilateral talks with PM Narendra Modi, PM Wickremesinghe addressed the opening plenary of the India Economic Summit in New Delhi hosted by World Economic Forum.
During their discussions the PMs agreed to conclude an enhanced bilateral economic partnership agreement by the end of this year to allow free flow of services, investments and technology, in addition to the existing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two nations. Along with Sri Lanka, the closer economic ties are expected to boost India’s five southern States. This is because Sri Lanka and the five southern States together have a population of 272 million people and a combined gross domestic product of over $500 billion. Thus there is room to grow much faster if the two countries bolster the economic ties. Sri Lankan PM was cognizant of the fact that the economic asymmetry between Sri Lanka and India is going to increase in the future, when the latter emerges as a global, thus suggesting that improved economic ties with India was in Lanka’s longer interest.
PM Wickremesinghe also met Indian Transport and Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari and said a four-lane traffic system had been proposed to be built from Jaffna to Mannar, Mannar to Colombo via Kurunegala and Mannar to Trincomalee via Vavuniya. Mr.Gadkari said the Indian government would facilitate the proposed construction as India has the latest technology for road construction that is much cheaper compared to construction rates of other countries.
Sri Lanka’s support to China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ had generated some level of discomfort in India due to the opaque nature of the project.Taking cue from that, Wickremesinghe categorically denied there was any military engagement involved in the island nation’s negotiations with China for its OBOR initiative.
Wickramasinghe’s assumed stance in the backdrop of cancelled SAARC summit with some section of politicians and media houses in Sri Lanka expressing the view that it was risking its time tested friendship with Pakistan by siding with India. In order to clarify government’s stand, Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera on October 7 stated in Parliament that Sri Lanka has no intention of pulling out of the SAARC nor did it boycott the Summit, but it was country’s view that the current environment in the host country was not conducive to the summit.
On a different plane, PM Modi’s comment in Lucknow that Ravana was the new form of terrorism, has drawn flak from Ravana followers in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan organisations like ‘Ravana Force’ and ‘Ravana Shakti’ have condemned these remarks of equaling King Ravana to a terrorist. Ravana Force has decided to hand over a petition to the Indian High Commission in Lanka, protesting against this remark stating that such comments hamper the ongoing reconciliation process in Sri Lanka.
The Siva Senai, based out of Vavuniya in the Tamil-dominated north, led by Maravanpulavu Sachithananthan plans to fight “coercive conversion” from Hinduism to Buddhism. Sinhalese leaders fear the militant nature of the new Siva Senai could break the status-quo prevailing in Northern Lanka while Tamil leaders are wary that outfits like Senai would split Tamil unity. Shiv Sena, the Maharashtra based political party has extended its support to Siva Senai. This has triggered concerns among the mainstream politicians of Sri Lanka that sectarian outfits will reopen wounds of a 20-year-old civil war that ended only in 2009.
Maldives
The important development in Maldives was the announcement by the Government on October 13to withdraw from the Commonwealth, stating that the organisation had taken punitive actions against the Maldives, despite the progress made by the country to strengthen democratic institutions.In a statement, the Foreign Affairs Ministry of the Maldives said the decision to leave the Commonwealth was difficult, but inevitable.The Maldives hadjoined the Commonwealth in 1982.The Government of Maldives feels that since 2012, it has been giving maximum cooperation to the Commonwealth, shown maximum transparency, and engaged with the Commonwealth at the highest levels.And yet, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) and the Commonwealth Secretariat was treating the Maldives unjustly and unfairly. The statement said, “The Commonwealth has sought to become an active participant in the domestic political discourse in the Maldives, which is contrary to the principles of the Charters of the UN and the Commonwealth.”Commonwealth Secretary General, Patricia Scotland said that the decision to leave the Commonwealth by the Maldives was received with disappointment and hoped that it was a temporary separation.
President Yameen made his second state visit to the Saudi kingdom in his three year tenure. During his the meeting with King Salman on October 5, the prospects of strengthening bilateral cooperation in the fields of education, agriculture and fisheries as well as in promoting Saudi investments in Maldives were discussed. President Yameen since assuming power has looked to deepen ties with the Saudi Kingdom which is set to triple the number of higher education scholarships provided to the Maldives to 300 from the present 100 scholarships. President Yameen and the Saudi education minister also spoke on establishing cooperation between the Islamic University of Maldives and the Saudi academia. The Saudis are funding several key projects including a significant airport development project in the Maldives.
