Central Asian Republics (CAR)
President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon Visits India
President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Mr. Emomali Rahmon, was on his sixth official visit to India from 14-18 December 2016. He held wide-ranging talks with Prime Minister Modi on bilateral, regional and international issues. The visit was successful in enhancing cooperation in the areas of security, counter-terrorism, trade and investments, human resource development, science and technology, culture, and tourism. Four key agreements signed by the two sides included Bilateral Investment Treaty, Agreement for Avoidance of Double Taxation, MoU on exchange of Audio-Visual Programs, and Agreement to prevent Financing of Terrorism and Money Laundering. This visit of President Rahmon has taken Indo-Tajik bilateral relationship at higher level.
Tajikistan is in India’s extended neighborhood, and is a geo-politically significant country. It shares long border with Afghanistan, and is in close proximity with Pakistan and India’s state of Jammu and Kashmir. India and Tajikistan commonly face security challenges like extremism and terrorism. In this regard, the two countries have worked together in recent past. The current Modi-Rahmon meet has further enhanced cooperation in security and counter-terrorism, which will take place at multiple levels; firstly, reinforcing overall bilateral security cooperation; secondly, greater training, capacity building and information exchanges; and thirdly, active coordination in regional and multilateral contacts.
The two countries have had converging viewpoints on peace, stability and development of the region. During their meet, Modi and Rahmon have pledged to work together, along with other regional actors, in the peace process in Afghanistan. Tajikistan has supported India’s candidature in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its full membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is believed that India’s membership in SCO would provide it a platform to work closely with Tajikistan and other CARs. During visit, Rahmon also appreciated the trilateral ‘Chabahar Port Agreement’ between India, Iran and Tajikistan that would provide connectivity to Tajikistan. India’s engagement in facilitating ‘International North South Transport Corridor’ (INSTC) and its planned accession to the ‘Ashgabat Agreement’ is likely to boost India’s connectivity with the CARs in general and Tajikistan in particular.
President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Mr. Almazbek Atambayev, pays Official Visit to New Delhi
President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Mr. Almazbek Atambayev, paid a state visit to India from 18-21 December 2016. This was his first official visit to India, since he assumed presidential office in 2011.He led a high level delegation comprising of ministers, officials and businessmen from Kyrgyzstan. During visit, he held talks with his Indian counterpart Mr. Pranab Mukherji and Prime Minister Modi. He also participated in India-Kyrgyzstan Joint Business Forum on 21 December.
India-Kyrgyzstan relations have generally been cordial. However, there have been very few high-level visits in the recent years. President Atambayev’s current visit came after the lapse of 13 years. On the other hand, there have been only two high-level visits from India to Kyrgyzstan. Modi’s visit in July 2015 was a significant step forward in the bilateral relationship, which is marked by cooperation in the areas of defense, security, elections, human resource development, culture, agriculture and tourism.
In the current visit of President Atambayev, several MoUs and agreements were signed between the two countries. This included MoU on Tourism, Agreement on Cooperation in Agriculture and Food Industry, Agreement on Youth Development, and MoUs on Youth Exchange between NCC and Military academy in Kyrgyzstan, Cooperation between Foreign Service Institutes, and in the field of Television and Audio-Visual Programs. In addition to this, Bilateral Investment Treaty was also signed. Plans for conducting fourth round of annual joint military exercises, called ‘Khanjar-IV’, in March-April 2017 were also finalized.
During talks, Modi and Atambayev discussed several regional and international issues. Both countries are affected by terrorism and extremism, and thus emphasized the need for global convention against terrorism. The two leaders have urged the United Nations to draft a Comprehensive Convention on Combating International Terrorism. Moreover, Kyrgyz side has appreciated India’s moves to facilitate development of Chabahar port and INSTC, which would enhance India’s transport and trade connectivity with CARs. Kyrgyzstan has also supported India’s candidature in UNSC and its membership in SCO.
EEU and CSTO Summits held in St Petersburg on 26 December
The leaders of six CIS countries met in St. Petersburg on 26 December, on the occasion of the Summits of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Both the organizations have common members, namely Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan; only exception being Tajikistan which is only member of CSTO. The summit was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian President Serzn Sargsyan, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko skipped the summit.
Within the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council the heads of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan summed up the first two years of EEU’s activity and outlined main direction of international activity for the year 2017. EEU Treaty on the Customs Code was signed during the meeting. The leaders also discussed various aspects of cooperation with key trade and economic partners. Number of important multilateral instruments were adopted, including those aimed at the promotion of the formation of the common Eurasian market.
In the CSTO Collective Security Council, leaders of the six member countries discussed cooperation within the organization and its ongoing activities. They exchanged views on key issues of global and regional agenda, including fight against terrorist and extremist threats, and drug and weapons trafficking. CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha raised issues like the hot spots in CIS, illegal drugs, terrorism, and confrontation between the West and Russia.
CSTO and EEU are both Russia-led organizations, about which the West and China have raised apprehensions. Russia considers CIS countries to be its ‘near abroad’ and continues to exert political, military and economic influence on them. The countries that are members of CSTO and EEU have, more or less, remained in the Russian orbit through these organizations. Western countries and the US have criticized these organizations to be suggestive of Russia’s strategic designs in the region.
Iranian President Rouhani visited Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took a tour of Central Asia from 21-23 December. He paid visits to CARs of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Caucasian country of Armenia. This was a first of its kind tour of President Rouhani where he visited three countries of the region. All the three countries are members of EEU. In recent years, Iran has been trying to enhance economic cooperation with the EEU countries, and this visit of Rouhani was suggestive of Iran’s expanding economic footprints in the region.
Iran occupies a very strategic location, which connects south, central and west Asia. It has potential to provide easiest access to oceans for the landlocked countries of Central Asia. Keeping this in mind, Iran’s role in developing transport corridors in the region is considered vital. Iran, in collaboration with other regional powers, has undertook development of rail and road links to Central Asia. In this regard, visit to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan can be seen as the attempt to enhance connectivity with CARs and China.
During Rouhani’s visit to Kazakhstan on December 21-22, he held wide-ranging bilateral talks with his Kazakh counterpart, Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev. The two countries signed five MoUs, including MoU for animal quarantine, agreement on cooperation in shipping in the Caspian Sea, MoU on facilitating Tourism, agreement on cooperation between the Central Bank of Iran and the National Bank of Kazakhstan for boosting mutual trade, and MoU on Cooperation in the field of Labor and Social Security.
During Rouhani’s visit to Kyrgyzstan on December 23, he met the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Mr. Almazbek Atambayev. The two countries signed five agreements, including MoU on cooperation in Communication and Information Technology, Agreement for cooperation in Fight against Drugs, MoU on Cultural cooperation, Agreement of cooperation in the areas of health, medicine and medical equipment, and MoU on Cooperation in the field of Labor and Social Security.
Africa
Egypt
Trump Convinced, President Sisi to Withdraw UN resolution
Israel and Palestine have been fighting each other over the issue of land and over the years, Israel has occupied large areas of Palestine. It is one of the longest-standing issues of Middle-East. Palestinians want an independent state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, areas Israel occupied in a 1967 war. Israel disputes that settlements are illegal and says their final status should be determined in any future talks on Palestinian statehood.
UN's stand is that Israeli settlements are illegal under international law and seen as major stumbling block to peace efforts as they are built on Palestinian land occupied by Israel. The United Nations maintains Israeli settlements are illegal, but UN officials have reported a surge in construction over the past months. Palestinians want an independent state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, areas Israel occupied in a 1967 war. Everybody knows that Israel is the aggressor and has been occupying Palestinian land. However, no one wants to be on the wrong side of Israel (a strong arms exporter, a key player in Middle-East) and this has led to big countries like US, Russia cozy up to Israel and turn a blind eye to atrocities committed by Israel against Palestinians
There was a UN Resolution being moved by Egypt (which is sympathetic to Palestinian aspirations) demanding Israel halt settlement activity in the occupied West Bank (disputed territory claimed by both Palestine and Israel). However, US wants to show its might and play the shrewd game of being seen as a harbinger of peace in the region. Hence, Trump who will become the President in January, called up the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to take back the Resolution. He would like to showcase the work of his government as the main peace-broker in the region.
What if the Resolution was passed in UNSC? International shaming for Israel? However, it was extremely likely (almost certain) that US would have used its veto power to reject the Resolution to save its dear friend Israel from international shaming. It shows US and Trump in a positive light since they will come across as trying to promote peace between Israel and Palestine - the Israeli settlement question Israel, saved from further international shaming. Egypt, though sympathetic to Palestinian cause, its Resolution would have eventually been vetoed by US. Hence, it was able to showcase that it was sympathetic to Palestinian cause, however, it was backing down in order to allow US to play a key role in the region.
The current event shows Trump taking a keen interest in the affairs of the Middle-East. This could help him score brownie points before he even becomes President. Notably, a similar Resolution was vetoed by US in 2011 to save Israel from international censure. Hence, this is not a new phenomenon or drastic change in the position of US vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine. It just shows Trump/US in a positive light.
Nigeria
Last Boko Haram Base Taken in Sambisa Forest – Buhari
The President of Nigeria Muhammudu Buhari stated that Boko Haram - the biggest terrorist outfit in Nigeria - has been annihilated. It’s like US saying that the Islamic State (IS) is no more a threat to the world simply because US-led coalition forces have been able to re-capture ISIS's stronghold of Mosul.
After 2015, this is the second claim of success based on the fact that Nigerian forces have been able to penetrate and destroy Boko Haram's last outpost in the Sambisa forest. Although this might seem like a welcome news, we need to be cautious and undertake an objective analysis of the claims by the Nigerian government. This is welcome news in the sense that Boko Haram's capabilities have been severely dented; however, caution needs to be taken to ensure that no repercussions are suffered by the civilian population in the adjoining areas of the Sambisa forest.
It is too early to celebrate the fall of Boko Haram in Nigeria. What the administration needs to do is to focus on two thing: First, checking the dispersal of Boko Haram guerillas and ensure they don't get a chance to re-group; and second, checking the spread of Boko Haram ideology among the youth and counter their appeal in the public's mind.
