Fortnightly Review and Analysis: Iran, West Asia, Eurasia, Central Asian Republics (CAR) & Africa (Vol 2 Issue XV)

Aug 1-15, 2017

WEST ASIA

Operationalisation of Chabahar Port by 2018

Indian Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has recently said that the port of Chabahar will be operational by 2018. The Road, Transport, Highways and Shipping Minister represented India at the oath taking ceremony of President Hassan Rouhani on 7 August 2017. Before this, Prime Minister Modi had extended his greetings and congratulated Rouhani while affirming that India’s commitment to strengthening the special relations between the countries. India has recently accelerated the work process of the Chabahar Port and has also finalized some tenders.

Mass Trial over Turkey's Failed Coup

The trial of 486 defendants accused of taking part in a failed coup attempt in Turkey last July, including generals, military pilots, and the U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, has begun in an Ankara court. The charges levied against these defendants include membership in a terrorist organization, attempting to assassinate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and endangering public safety. This trial is supposedly the largest of its kind in relation to the attempted coup, which left at least 249 people dead. The case focuses on the Akinci Air Base, which Turkey says the defendants used as a headquarters to plot the coup.

Persian Gulf Crisis: Qatar to Buy $6 billion of Italian Warships

Qatar has recently agreed to buy seven Italian warships at a cost of nearly $6 billion in the latest example of checkbook defiance by the gas-rich country in its two-month-old feud with four neighboring Arab countries. The military deal between Qatar and Italy, announced by the foreign ministers of both countries in Doha, on 2 August 2017, was the latest in a slew of diplomatic and economic moves suggesting that the crisis, the worst to hit the Persian Gulf countries in decades, shows little sign of abating.

Qatar has also lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization against its neighbors, which have cut off all trade and diplomatic ties, and closed air and sea routes into the country. Saudi Arabia has shut Qatar’s only land border. Besides, it has also sought help this week from the United Nations aviation body, the International Civil Aviation Organization, in a bid to open new air corridors through the Emirates, which are currently closed.

Meanwhile, Qatar has waived visa requirements for citizens of eighty countries in a bid to boost tourism since a Saudi-led bloc of nations initiated a blockade of the country in June.

Third Safe Zone in Syria Announced by Russia

A Russian-backed ceasefire agreement between rebels and Damascus went into effect in the regime-encircled north Homs countryside on 3 August 2017 after years of bombings and blockade, local sources told Syria Direct. Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense met with “moderate Syrian opposition” negotiators in Cairo in recent days to finalize a ceasefire agreement, Russian state media reported. The rebel negotiators have officially signed onto the deal.

The agreement, which began with a full ceasefire on 3 August 2017, makes north Homs the third de-escalation zone to be implemented in Syria under a Russian-led plan presented at talks in Astana, Kazakhstan this past May. Similar “de-escalation zones” have already gone into effect in recent weeks in southwestern Syria and the East Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, despite reports of violations.

A defense ministry spokesman said that Russian military police will maintain checkpoints and watch towers to monitor government forces and rebels, and that President Bashar al-Assad's forces will not be allowed to fly military aircraft over the zone. The deal, negotiated in Cairo, also calls for the release of detainees held by the government and will not require rebels to hand over weapons.

Tillerson Requested Kurdistan Government to Delay Independence Vote

United States Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has requested the Kurdistan Government delay a September 25 independence vote, according to the Kurdish presidency. The US has said the vote could distract from other priorities, including the battle against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The statement issued by the Kurdish presidency after Tillerson’s call said, “On the issue of the postponement of the referendum, the President (Barzani) stated that the people of the Kurdistan Region would expect guarantees and alternatives for their future.” With the sizeable number of Kurdish population in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria, the US and other Western nations are concerned that the vote could turn into another regional flashpoint.

Iran's Rouhani Threatens to Pull Out of Nuclear Deal

President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran could abandon a 2015 nuclear deal if the US continues to impose new sanctions on it, saying that Iran could soon return to its "previous situation". In a speech to parliament on 15 August 2017, he also hit out at US counterpart Donald Trump saying he had shown the world that Washington was "not a good partner". Rouhani's comments come with the nuclear deal under mounting pressure after Tehran carried out missile tests and Washington imposed new sanctions, with each accusing the other of violating the spirit of the agreement.

The US imposed sanctions on six Iranian firms in late July over their role in ballistic missile development and passed additional sanctions in August. Iran says its missiles are not designed to carry nuclear weapons. Rouhani said he would prefer not to withdraw from the deal, but cited the Trump administration's reversals on the Paris Agreement on climate and its policy toward Cuba as signs the country is "not a reliable negotiating party".

Meanwhile, Iran's parliament voted on 13 August 2017 to increase military funding by $ 609 million. Half of the new funds will go to the country's ballistic missile program, the object of recent sanctions imposed by the US.

CAR

Deputy Prime Minister of Turkmenistan Visits India

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister (FM) of Turkmenistan, Mr Rashid Meredov, led a high-level delegation of the Turkmen government officials to New Delhi from 13-15 August 2017. The delegation participated in the 6th Session of the India-Turkmenistan Intergovernmental Commission for Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation on 14 August. Indian Minister for External Affairs Smt. Sushma Swaraj, who was also the co-chair at the intergovernmental commission, hosted Mr Meredov. Apart from her, the deputy PM also met with Vice President Venkaiya Naidu, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Minister of Shipping Mr Nitin Gadkari, and Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.

Discussions of the Intergovernmental Commission were held in a friendly and cordial atmosphere. FMs Smt. Swaraj and Mr. Meredov comprehensively reviewed the entire gamut of bilateral relations and took stock of the progress achieved in the areas of energy, trade and economic cooperation, transportation and connectivity, security cooperation, civil aviation, information technology, science and technology, cultural and educational matters. The sides expressed satisfaction at the current state of cooperation between the two countries and agreed to work towards fulfillment of the commitments reached during the meeting between the Turkmen president and the Indian prime minister during the latter’s visit to Ashgabat in July 2015.

Turkmen FM Meredov and Shipping Minister Gadkari discussed India’s joining the Ashgabat Agreement that envisages establishment of International Transport and Transit Corridor between Iran, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which are the founding member-states of the Agreement. In 2016, the Indian government decided to accede to the Ashgabat Agreement, a move that would enable the country to utilise this existing transport and transit corridor to facilitate trade and commercial interaction with the Eurasian region. India would become party to the agreement after consent from the founding members. India joining the Ashgabat Agreement would also be in synch with India’s efforts to implement the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) for enhanced connectivity.

Meredov also discussed with his counterpart progress of the TAPI pipeline, envisaged to bring in natural gas from Turkmenistan to energy-starving countries of South Asia, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

AFRICA

United Nation Warns Democratic Republic of Congo, where Conflict Leaves Millions Hungry

The United Nation Food Agency has confirmed that due to conflict, there are around eight million people in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) facing acute hunger. There is a deterioration in food security and nutrition in many parts of DRC especially in the Kasai region of the country. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) about 7.7 million people were on the verge of starvation overall in the vast central African country, a 30 percent surge over a year ago. Conflicts have displaced about 3.7 million people within the country, with a steady flow of refugees from neighbouring countries putting a strain on already stretched resources.

A rebellion has been raging in the diamond rich Kasai region for the past year, with both the government and rebels accused of atrocities. Around 1.4 million people in Kasai and in the eastern province of Tanganyika had been forced to flee their homes over the past year. Also, the farmers have not been able to plant their crops for the last two seasons because of the conflict situation. The FAO report reveals 43 percent of children under five, which means more than seven million children are affected by chronic malnutrition in DRC. The situation is set to get worse if urgent support does not come in time.

To Strengthen Drought Resilience, African Development Bank Signs US $ 78 million Grant Agreements with Governments of Somalia and South Sudan

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has signed tripartite grant agreements of US $ 34.8 million and US $ 43.8 million with the Republic of Somalia and the Republic of South Sudan respectively and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) under the Bank’s ‘Say No To Famine – Short Term Regional Emergency Response Project – STRERP’. Targeting 804,000 individuals in Somalia and 300,000 individuals in South Sudan, STRERP’s direct food, water, fodder and medical assistance will provide relief to meet the immediate hunger and malnutrition needs faced by communities affected by drought, conflicts and famine. The Grants are geared towards providing emergency food assistance and medical aid to the most vulnerable populations in Somalia and South Sudan. In addition, the project includes activities to put in place the preliminary building blocks to strengthen links between the production, distribution and consumption hubs of the food systems in the affected regions.

Fearing Boko Haram, Thousands to Flee from Niger to Chad

At least 7,000 people from Niger has moved to Chad because of the fear of Boko Haram. According to the United Nation, thousands more may cross the border if the violence escalates in the region. The southeastern region of the country Diffa, has seen intense fighting over the past year between Niger's army and Boko Haram militants. The region hosts almost a quarter-million uprooted people, from Niger and Nigeria, who have been forced to flee their homes by the violence. The U.N. refugee agency mentioned that the recent arrivals in Chad's Lake region felt compelled to leave Niger after attacks by Islamist Boko Haram militants on their village and neighboring communities.

The United Nations Base in Mali Attacked by Gunmen

The headquarters of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping force in the northern Mali city was attacked by an unidentified gunmen in killing seven people and injuring seven others. The UN peacekeeping mission in Mali is the deadliest of the United Nation’s sixteen global peacekeeping operations, and this was one of the worst losses of mission employees which is known as Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The mission dispatched a quick reaction force and attack helicopters to secure the Timbuktu headquarters in Mali where the UN troops killed six assailants.

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