Fortnightly Review and Analysis: Iran, West Asia, Eurasia, Central Asian Republics (CAR) & Africa (Vol 2 Issue VII)

April 1 - 15 2017

West Asia

Chemical Weapons Attack in Syria

On 4 April 2017, the Syrian government used chemical weapons in an attack on the northeastern Idbil province area known as Khan Sheikhoun. This attack killed 83 persons of which 25 were children and left 350 injured. President Donald Trump blamed the attack on the regime President Bashar al Assad calling it “reprehensible and cannot be ignored by the civilized world”. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that supports of Assad regime, Russia and Iran, should have no illusions about the President’s brutal and unabashed barbarism. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson came out with a statement saying that although the event is not certain, it bears all hallmarks to an attack by the regime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also condemned the attack in a tweet along with British Prime Minister Theresa May who described the attack as "barbarism."

The Syrian news agency, SANA, however defended itself by stating that the allegations were fabricated and that this will not prevent the regime from fighting against terrorism. The report also stated that Syria complies with the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention. However, no resolution could be passed in the subsequent Security Council meeting on the use of chemical weapons since Russia vetoed the proposal. China also rejected the proposal and non–permanent members such as Ethiopia and Kazakhstan abstained. With this attack, President Trump has shown a departure from his previous stand on Syria and cooperation with Russia on Syria. However, the recent attack seem to have jeopardised both these objectives. His previous stands, albeit not well defined, included a focus on removal of ISIS from the region without any emphasis on pushing out Assad unlike President Obama.

US launched 59 Tomahawk Cruise Missiles in the Eastern Mediterranean

On 7 April, the US launched unilateral military action in Syria. It launched a cruise missile attack on Syria airfield making it as US direct combat attack against Syrian regime. According to the reports, the US strike saw 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the guided- missile destroyer USS Ross and USS Porter in the Eastern Mediterranean. This led to a spat of words between Russia and the US. While Russia described the move as “aggression against a sovereign state in violation of international law”, US said that Russia bears responsibility for Assad’s gas attack. According to the Syrian officials, seven people were killed and nine were wounded in the attack launched by the United States. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has also accused the US to have launched an attack on “absolutely made- up pretext”.

According to Russian news agency RT News, the chemical attack news has been falsely created and the footage shown are those from the 2013 chemical attacks. The decision to launch the attack despite lack of congressional and international authorisation for the strike. The decision was taken by the President after consultations with Defence Secretary James Mattis, and National Security Advisor HR MacMaster. President Trump said that this move was in the vital national security interest after all other efforts failed to contain Assad. On 13 April 2017, President Assad, in an interview, said that the US attack was “100 percent” fabricated. Thus, Syria now appear to be a new theatre of war between US and Russia.

President Sisi Meeting with US President Trump

The White House hosted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el–Sisi on 3 April 2017. This was a marked departure from President Obama’s stand on Sisi after he launched a coup in Egypt and overthrew President Morsi. Thus, this welcome points to the start of a warmer relations for President Sisi with Washington. This was the first face-to– face meeting after the telephonic conversation made by President Sisi, the first one to call and congratulate the President.

The White House official said that the Trump administration will not air concerns against Sisi in public by “in a private, more discreet way”. In his remarks, President Trump expressed his appreciation President Sisi’s commitment towards counter terrorism measures. He also said the US will strongly back Egypt in the years to come. It is also important to mention that Egypt is the second largest recipient of military aid from the US which was discontinued for a brief period post uprisings. To this extend, President Trump said that it has will rejuvenate its military ties with Egypt to the “highest level I think in these times, probably more than ever before, or certainly almost more than ever before”. President Sisi also responded in the same tone and said that two countries will remain friends for a “long, long period of time”.

ISIS attacks on Coptic Church in Egypt

On 9 April 2017,two blasts targeting Coptic Christians in Egypt on Palm killed at least 44 people, officials say. An explosion at St George's Coptic Church in Tanta killed 27 people. Hours later, another blast outside St Mark's Coptic Church in Alexandria left 17 dead. The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility of the explosions, the latest in a series of attacks targeting the Christian minority in the country. In response, President Sisi ordered military deployments across Egypt. In a statement, he said that the army would be sent to protect "vital and important infrastructure". In Alexandria, Pope Tawadros II, head of the Coptic Church, had been attending Mass inside the church targeted but was not hurt, state media reported. Several police officers, including one policewoman, were among those killed, the interior ministry said. The suicide bomber blew himself up after they stopped him from entering the church. The Copts are one of the most ancient Christian communities and the largest still left in the West Asian region.

Central Asian Republics (CAR)

Meeting of CIS Council of Foreign Ministers takes place in Tashkent

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers meeting was held in the Uzbek capital city of Tashkent on 7 April. It was attended by foreign ministers of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Russia, Belarus, Armenia, and deputy foreign ministers of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova. CIS Executive Secretary Sergey Lebedev was also present in the meeting. The meeting of foreign ministers is considered as a key stage in preparation of meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of Governments. Upcoming meeting of Heads of Governments is scheduled in May at Kazan.

During the meeting, foreign ministers exchanged views on prospects for developing cooperation in various areas of CIS activities, enhancing its role in international and regional affairs. They exchanged views on topical issues of strengthening regional security and stability, deepening trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation. The CIS foreign ministers discussed about 16 draft documents, 10 of which are expected to be approved for consideration to the Council of Heads of Governments. These documents are related to interaction of the CIS countries in foreign policy, cultural and humanitarian areas, and to ensuring security, countering the legalization of proceeds from criminal activities, financing of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

CIS is the regional organization that was created in the aftermath of Soviet disintegration, with the purpose of smooth transfer of power and enhancing regional cooperation. All ex-Soviet states, except Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, became members of the CIS. In 2008, after armed conflict with Russia, Georgia chose to withdraw from the organization. CIS currently consists of 11 ex-Soviet states. It is a key body in the Eurasian region, with prime emphasis on issues of regional security, tackling cross-border crime, and enhancing trade and cooperation.

Mirziyoyev Visits Moscow

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan paid a State Visit to Moscow on 4 April. This was his first visit to Russia since his election to the highest position. Mirziyoyev has also recently concluded visits to neighboring states of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. This underlines the significance he attaches to the neighborhood in general and Eurasian region in particular.

During his Moscow visit, President Mirziyoyev held one-to-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed current state of bilateral relations in political, economic, scientific, technical, cultural, humanitarian spheres. Special attention was paid to further development of economic cooperation in trade, investments, petrochemical industry, transport and communications and agriculture. The two Presidents also exchanged views on cross-border threats like terrorism and situation in Afghanistan. After meeting, a joint statement was signed by Mirziyoyev and Putin. The Uzbek and Russian governments also signed more than 50 documents worth $16 billion.

Uzbekistan and Russia have nurtured high level of bilateral cooperation. Russia is one the largest trading partners of Uzbekistan, to whom it exports gas, metals, cotton, fruits and vegetables. Russia considers the Central Asian region as its ‘Near Abroad’, and has been striving to exert influence on the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Being landlocked republics, CARs rely on Russia for trade and transit. They also consider Russia to be their ‘security provider’. The relationship between Russia and CARs is vital for Eurasian security and economic cooperation.

Tashkent- Dushanbe Air Connectivity Resumes after a Break of 25 Years

Direct flight service between Tashkent and Dushanbe, capitals of two estranged neighbors of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, was resumed on 11 April, putting an end to the 25 years ban. In 1992, following the outbreak of Civil War in Tajikistan, the relationship between the two CARs had soured, leading to the Uzbek side putting a ban on direct flights. Because of renewed interest of the newly-elected Uzbek President, Mr. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbek and Tajik governments signed an agreement in December 2016 for resuming the air connectivity. This move by Mirziyoyev is part of his larger goal of enhancing regional cooperation among the CARs, which he has reiterated on several occasions.

Africa

As the South African President Jacob Zuma Dances on his 75th Birthday, Thousands Demands his Resignation

Tens of thousands of South Africans have marked the 75th birthday of President Jacob Zuma by holding a mass protest against him in Pretoria while he partied in Johannesburg. The march, to government headquarters at Union Buildings, was organised by rival opposition parties ahead of a no confidence vote on Mr. Zuma in the country's parliament, which he is expected to survive. It followed similar nationwide rallies in the first week of April, 2017, which the president dismissed as "racist," prompted by the recent sacking of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan.The groundswell of opposition to Mr. Zuma has grown in recent years, due to government corruption scandals, record unemployment and slowing economic growth.

The President has been accused of being close to the wealthy Gupta business family, allegedly granting them influence over government appointments, contracts and state-owned businesses. Mr. Zuma is facing more than 700 corruption charges, but he has survived a rape trial and a number of no confidence votes in parliament. The large demonstration, prompted by a number of events, most significantly a big cabinet re-shuffle in which he sacked the finance minister and the value of the South African rand plummeted. Police estimated the number of people at the peaceful protest at 30,000, but organisers claimed it was more.

There are, however, signs that Zuma's power-base, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) which he leads, is starting to crumble, after senior figures, including Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, joined the criticism of his sacking of Mr. Gordhan. Many South Africans have accused him for spending millions of public funds refurbishing one of his homes, and refusing to repay the money when the scandal became public. Mr. Zuma, who is due to stand down as head of the ANC in December, and as national president ahead of the 2019 general election, did not appear concerned as he celebrated his birthday with supporters in Johannesburg. After dancing and cracking jokes on stage, he told supporters to ignore the criticism and said he was not stressed by calls for him to resign.

United States to Deploy Small Contingent of Troops to Somalia, First Time in Over 20 Years

The United States military has confirmed that it will deploy troops to Somalia in the fight against insurgent group, Al-Shabaab. This will be the first such deployment in over two decades. The last US troops in the Horn of Africa country left in 1993. The pullout was after two helicopters were shot down in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. According to the US Africa Command, the latest deployment will help to train the Somalia National Army (SNA). The about 40 troops are to be deployed from the 101st Airborne Division. President Donald Trump recently approved an expanded military role in Somalia, a position that included carrying out more aggressive measures against the insurgents who hold parts of the country. The new leader of the country, President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo is a Somali-American who recently declared a war with the insurgents. He has called for the insurgents to come to the negotiation table or risk total defeat within a space of two years.

Uganda Troops Announce Withdrawal from the Central African Republic

The Ugandan army has announced its withdrawal from the CAR. The announcement was made during a meeting with the local authorities in the region. This comes less than three weeks after the decision of the United States to put an end to the activities of Joseph Kony, leader of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), Uganda.

The commander of the Ugandan troops said the withdrawal should take place during May 2018, according to a timetable that has not been disclosed to the public yet. The Ugandan army was deployed to the east of the CAR in 2009 as a result of a resolution of the African Union. Its objective was to put an end to the atrocities of the Lord resistance Army who had fled to Uganda. A group that monitors the Lord’s Resistance Army activities, The Resolve initiative, says the group is still a threat to civilians and cautions against drawing down troops prematurely.

The Lord’s Resistance Army was founded in northern Uganda and is led by a Ugandan native called Joseph Kony but the group no longer has any presence in Uganda. It comprises a mix of Ugandans and fighters from other countries. Kony has been indicted for war crimes and many of his followers were forcibly recruited as children. Years of joint US-African Union efforts to destroy the LRA have been stymied by the group’s guerrilla tactics and its propensity to retreat into harsh terrain and unstable or ungoverned areas. Several years ago Kony was rumored to be hiding in the Kafia enclave, a disputed territory occupied by the Sudanese army.

Contact Us