Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Iran, West Asia, The Middle East, Eurasia, Africa & CAR (Vol 1 Issue XII)

(December 1-15, 2016)

Central Asian Republics (CAR)

Uzbekistan Elects Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President

This fortnight was extremely important for the doubly landlocked Central Asian Republic of Uzbekistan. It was marked by a smooth regime change which subtly signified remarkable socio-political transition for the country.

In the landmark Presidential elections held on December 4, interim President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was elected with thumping majority. This was first presidential election held since the death of first President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov. Total voter turnout in this election was 87.7%. Out of the total votes casted, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, candidate of the Uzbekistan Liberal Democratic Party, received 88.6% votes and thereby marked a comfortable victory. According to the Uzbek Constitution, Mirziyoyev is elected for the tenure of five years.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev was born in 1957 in the Jizzak province of Soviet Uzbekistan. He holds a PhD in technology. He has served on number of constitutional posts before he became the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan in 2003. After the death of the first and the only President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, on September 2, Prime Minister Mirziyoyev had assumed the role of Interim President.

Death of President Karimov, who ruled the country since independence, had posed serious challenges for the nation. Experts had raised apprehensions about possible political instability and power vacuum in the country. There were fears about rising threat of extremism and Islamic fundamentalism in certain parts of the county. However, the smooth transfer of power to Mirziyoyev has clearly defied most of these concerns. This regime change can be compared with that of Turkmenistan. In 2006, sudden death of first Turkmen President Niyazov led to the election of Gurbanguly Berdimukhmedov as new President.

President Mirziyoyev is a young and dynamic leader. He has long-standing experience of serving the country as the Prime Minister. The people of Uzbekistan, especially the youth of the country, are looking forward to Mirziyoyev’s tenure with aspirations of more open and prosperous economy. Major challenge of the newly elected President is to sustain the economic growth of the country and maintain security and stability in the region.

Kyrgyzstan Holds Referendum on Constitutional Amendments

The Kyrgyz Republic held a national Referendum on December 11 for amending 26 provisions of the Constitution. In the nation-wide polling, around 42% Kyrgyz citizens casted their vote, out of which, around 79% voters endorsed the proposal to change constitution. The amendments were aimed mainly at boosting powers of the Prime Minister vis-s-vis the President. According to new provisions, Prime Minister is granted additional power in relation to budget legislation. He is also empowered to appoint or dismiss any cabinet minister or regional governor without consulting the President. The same referendum also puts ban on same-sex marriages.

The present constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic was adopted in 2010 in a national referendum. This constitution changed Kyrgyzstan’s form of government from presidential to parliamentary. It made President Head of the State, which was merely a ceremonial position. Also, President was allowed only one term in office. Prime Minister was made the Head of the Government. However, the division of power between the two executives was not made clear. Latest referendum in Kyrgyzstan tried to address this ambiguity.

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the poorest and the most instable among the post-Soviet states. In the history of 25 years of independence, the country has experienced two violent ethnic outbursts, revolutionary ousting of two previous Presidents and seven national referendums to amend the constitution. In 2010, the Kyrgyz republic adopted the Parliamentary form of government. As a matter of fact, it is the only Central Asian country, which has parliamentary form of government, and only one term for the President. However, smooth implementation of the existing constitution continues to be a big challenge for the post-Soviet nation.

Africa

Nigeria, Morocco in Joint Gas Venture

Nigeria and Morocco are set to jointly promote a gas pipeline that will connect the two countries and some other African countries. This would accelerate electricity and energy generation, and assist other African countries. The agreement was reached during the visit of Moroccan King President Mohammed VI to Nigeria. The pipeline project would be designed with the participation of all stakeholders. No timeline was given for when the pipeline construction work will start and how much it will cost.

Nigeria is rich in hydrocarbons but produces little electricity, making its industries uncompetitive. Its economy now faces a recession caused by a plunge in crude prices. Militants in its oil producing heartland of the Niger Delta have also blown up pipelines in a quest for a bigger share of Nigeria's oil wealth, which has cut crude output this year. Further, Nigeria and Kingdom of Morocco has also agreed on developing integrated industrial clusters in the sub-region in sectors such as manufacturing, Agro-business and fertilizers to attract foreign capital.

Africa Converges in Abuja for the African Economic Conference

About 300 researchers, policy-makers, development partners and other participants have converged in Abuja, Nigeria, for the 11th African Economic Conference (AEC) from December 5-7, 2016, to share ideas on topical African development. The focus was on how to end hunger and ensure food security in Africa. Co-organized by the African Development Bank (AfDB), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the theme of the conference is: "Feed Africa: Towards Agro-Allied Industrialization for Inclusive Growth."

Opening the conference, Nigeria’s Vice-President, Yemi Osinbajo, highlighted how the Nigerian Government and private sector partners are leveraging resources for agricultural transformation in the midst of the global economic recession, which has resulted in the country losing up to 1 million barrels of crude oil daily. Vice-President Osinbajo, who spoke on behalf of President Muhammadu Buhari, disclosed numerous efforts being made by the Government to support agriculture and its value chains to diversify and transform the economy in the absence of oil resources, which formed the backbone of the economy. He expressed the hope that the conference would come up with evidence-based research and knowledge of good practices that can help Nigeria and other African countries to transform their agricultural production for more sustainable growth.

AfDB President, Akinwumi Adesina, mentioned that agriculture, which contributes over 28% of the GDP of Africa, holds the key for the accelerated growth, diversification and job creation for African economies. Citing examples in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda) and from Asia, and South Korea in particular, Adesina illustrated how Africa can make agriculture a solid foundation to build a strong food and agro-industrial manufacturing base quickly. According to Adesina, there is a need for "Growth Enhancement Support" for farmers: a system whereby small-scale farmers are provided with targeted input support to be able to use new technologies. The establishment of large “Staple Crop Processing Zones” and “Agro-industrial zones”, with the required infrastructure and risk-sharing facilities will also be very helpful. He said that the AfDB has earmarked $800 million for ‘Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation’ (TAAT), targeting 40 million farmers over ten years, to take new agricultural technologies to scale. He mentioned that the Goal is simple: support massive agro-industrial development all across Africa. To make this happen, there is need for well-directed public policies to incentivize the agricultural sector, especially agribusiness and food manufacturing companies,” Adesina emphasized.

Nigeria: US House Passes Bipartisan Legislation to Combat Boko Haram

In a long-awaited victory, the U.S. House of Representatives by a voice vote have passed H.R. 3833/S. 1632, the legislation introduced by Congresswoman Frederica S. Wilson (D-Florida) and Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) to help combat Boko Haram.The measure directs the U.S. secretaries of State and Defense to jointly develop a five-year strategy to aid the Nigerian government; members of the Multinational Joint Task Force created to combat Boko Haram; and international partners who've offered their support to counter the regional threat posed by the insurgents. The strategy also would address the crushing humanitarian and education crises the terrorists have created.

Wilson mentioned that Boko Haram captured his attention when the terrorist group kidnapped 276 Nigerian schoolgirls from their dormitory rooms 968 days ago. For most of the world, the ‘Chibok’ girls symbolize the horror that is Boko Haram, but the damage its members have wrought goes far deeper. In addition to killing more than 20,000 innocent people, sexually abusing women and girls, and also sending them on suicide bomb missions, Boko Haram has turned more than 3 million Nigerians into refugees in their own homeland, tens of thousands of whom are at risk of starving to death. Two thousand schools have closed, depriving one million children of the opportunity to get an education.

Senator Collins, who authored and originally introduced the bill said that Boko Haram has pledged allegiance to ISIS and continues to commit terrible acts of brutal violence against civilians in Nigeria as well as in Chad, Cameroon, and Niger. For more than two years, House lawmakers have stood united in raising awareness of the ‘#BringBackOurGirls’ movement, demanding the safe return of the missing Chibok girls and the end of Boko Haram's carnage. Members from both parties have held policy forums and press conferences to discuss strategies to combat the terrorists.

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