February, 1 - 15, 2017
DEFENCE
India Likely to Buy Six Airbus Aircraft for AWACS
India is likely to buy six A330 aircraft worth `20,000 crore from Airbus company. The same are being bought to mount the indigenously built Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).
Speaking about the same at the recent Aero India international seminar, the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) Chairman S Christopher has said, “Currently the order to buy Airbus aircraft is before the Cabinet Committee on Security. We are hopeful that within six months we will get the clearances and the first aircraft will be ready for handing over to the Indian Air Force (IAF) in less than 84 months after signing of the contract.”
However, while this AWACS system is being developed, the IAF has already been handed over (on 14 Feb 2017) another indigenous built AWAC system developed by the Centre for Airborne Systems (CABS), Bengaluru. This system is mounted on the Brazilian-made Embraer-145 aircraft. Explaining the differences between the two, DRDO Chief Christopher said, “The present one developed on Embraer-145 aircraft has 240 degree surveillance and a coverage area of 240 km but when mounted on Airbus it will have 360 degree surveillance with a coverage area of 300 km.”
With the planned induction of the AWACS, India would be able to fulfil its role as a responsible global player in a more befitting manner.
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Deploys the DF-16 Missile
The PLA has deployed during a recent exercise its advanced DF-16 medium-range ballistic missile, a weapon seen as filling a gap in the nation's arsenal. Videos of the said missile were seen in a recent exercise of the PLA Rocket Force.
This is the third time that the missile has been displayed with the earlier tow times being at the Victory Day parade in Sep 2015 and during an inspection of the DF-16 unit of the Southern Theater Command by General Fan Changlong, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission.
While specifications of the DF-16 are still unknown, it is believed that said missile poses a challenge to foreign military installations along the first island chain. With a strike range of more than 1,000 kilometers, it is supposed to be filling a gap that previously existed due to the absence of a medium-range ballistic missile in the PLA's arsenal.
The DF-16 has been developed by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp and is an improved version of the earlier DF-11 short-range ballistic missile and can carry a warhead of at least 500 kg. The missile has a strike accuracy as good as that of a cruise missile and has the ability to maneuver in its final stage to penetrate enemy missile defenses.
The induction of the DF-16 as a tactical firepower asset has its implications and the same have to be taken note of.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Security Situation in Iraq
Iraq continued to witness serious security situation during the fortnight with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), backed by the coalition forces, making significant advancements in their military campaign against Daesh fighters, though the campaign is far from over. The focus, after retaking eastern Mosul during late January, has now shifted towards the western part of the city which still has a strong Daesh presence. Deterioration in the security situation was reported in the southern provinces after the militants revived their attacks on the security forces. This is a clear indication of a very complicated counterterrorism operation which is underway not only in these cities but in the entire country. Till the mid-week of February, the ISF had some difficulties in finding suitable places to station their forces so as to secure the liberated territories in eastern Mosul, and to utilize them as a base for launching operation in other parts of this city. A report mentioned that, “The inability to find a suitable hold force is also creating openings for ISIS to re-infiltrate, as shown by several attacks in eastern Mosul on February 8”. Further delay by the security forces will only lead to the re-entry of Daesh fighters and more attacks could be expected. During the first ten days of February, a similar situation was witnessed in northern parts of the country where militant activities in and around cities like Tikrit were reportedly on the rise.
Meanwhile, suicide bombers continued to attack the capital city of Baghdad in which the victims were mostly Shiites as has been the case over the past several months. The attacks came in response to the statement made by Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi that the capital “no longer faces a threat from Islamic State”. Amidst these developments, the political crisis in the country is also worsening, particularly by the Sadrist-led protestors who, since last year, have intensified their demands for reforms in the country. The protests were marked by clashes with the security forces and rocket attacks. The role of Iranian-backed Shiite proxies in Iran has also received a significant attention. Under these circumstances, the burden on the ISF is likely to increase, both to fight against Daesh and also to contain political-related violence in Iraq.
Daesh Related Developments in Afghanistan
With the Daesh losing grounds in Iraq, it is looking towards the war-torn Afghanistan for space and activities. Reports and related discussions about the presence of the outfit in some parts of Afghanistan began appearing in the public domain since early 2015 but the numbers of fighters/supporters still remains uncertain, with officials and organisations giving different estimates. That said, in view of the deteriorating security order, Afghanistan is increasingly being discussed as an emerging safe haven for the fleeing Daesh fighters from Syria and Iraq. Recently, Afghanistan’s ambassador to India, Shaida Mohammad Abdali, mentioned that, “Afghanistan is just the staging ground for Daesh (ISIS) for the entire region. Daesh in Afghanistan is not just for Afghanistan, but it is a phenomena that will destablise the entire South Asian region”. Considering this as a threat to India also, the envoy called for a robust (military) cooperation with New Delhi in the fight against terrorism.
On 1 February, there were reports of a killing of a senior Daesh leader named Shahid Omar in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan in an airstrike. For quite some time, this terror outfit is reportedly operating in this province and many of the fighters are defectors from Taliban. Furthermore, during counterterrorism operations in Nangarhar province during the first week of February, Afghan security forces arrested four suspects for having links with the outfit. Daesh supporters have also strengthened their presence in some remote districts, including Achin.
In the face of these developments, the US forces based in the country have started launching airstrikes against their hideouts. Although Daesh still does not possess the prowess to carry out major terror operations, they have begun launching attacks on police checks posts intermittently. The security challenges posed by the growing presence of Daesh in the country needs to be closely monitored, particularly due to the gaining influence of Daesh in Pakistan as well, where there is apparently close cooperation between this outfit and local terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
Child Recruits and Terrorism
Recruitment of children in terrorist groups is not a new phenomenon in the history of terrorism. This has been in practice since several years despite repeated attempts to prevent such inductions. The recruiters continue to look out for impressionable youths who can be easily radicalized and recruited. The current discussions on Daesh also fail to highlight this problem with any degree of seriousness. This issue has attracted global attention in the last couple of years particularly after Daesh came to prominence in 2014. Reports over the recruitment of children by Daesh began to surface in mid-2015 and 2016, and television channels, such as Al-Jazeera, even carried out a special coverage on this issue (in Afghanistan). A serious concern was raised in early February when the London-based think-tank, Quilliam Foundation, released its research report on how recruiters are increasingly targeting children immigrating into Europe in the recent years. Some of these children, on arrival in countries such as the United Kingdom, are singled out for intense radicalisation by extremist groups. Many of these vulnerable targets are mostly the ones who escape from their asylum centers. Similar practices are also found in refugee camps in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. Daesh reportedly “had offered up to $2,000 (£1,600) to recruit within” these camps. An analyst mentioned that “From June last year to last month, she found 263 instances of such groups attempting to convince refugees to wage jihad against non-believers or join extremists and convert to Islam”. Other terror organisations, including Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabab and Boko Haram, are well known for this practice. In the current context, Daesh is coordinating with smugglers in Europe who can provide them with such children. What is of immense concern is the possibility of using them as suicide bombers or attackers in European countries. For instance, a couple of attempted terror attacks made by a boy (in August 2016) and a girl (in early February 2017) were foiled in Iraq and France, respectively. There are high chances that terror outfits are looking for an opportune moment to actualize their plans in the near future.
India Russia Cooperation on Counter terrorism
India and Russia recently concluded high-level consultations on counter terrorism issues in New Delhi on January 31, 2017. The composite Indian delegation from India was led by Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs, and the Russian side was headed by Oleg V. Syromolotov, Deputy Foreign Minister. Both sides shared their views and assessments on the threats posed by the terrorism, the rising state sponsored terrorism in the Af-Pak region, which is considered as an epicenter of terrorism. The two sides agreed that the UNSC 1267 Sanctions List processes for blacklisting various terrorist individuals and entities must be stringently complied with. Prospects for deepening engagement on counter-terrorism under the UN, BRICS and SCO mechanisms were also emphasized. It was also agreed to develop a joint action plan to further strengthened capacity building, frequent expert-level meetings, sharing of insights, exchange of best practices in countering radicalization and curbing terrorism.
INTERNAL SECURITY
Manipur Blockade: Union Government Holds Dialogue
In an effort to end the nearly three month old economic blockade of National Highway 2 in Manipur, the Union government held tripartite dialogue with rebel Naga group United Naga Council and the Manipur Government in New Delhi on February 03, 2017. The blockade has badly affected the movement of essential supplies to the Manipur. The meeting was chaired by Joint Secretary (North East) and attended by all stakeholders of the three parties. In a similar initiative, the Central Government had convened the meeting in November 15, 2016 which however, the Manipur Government chose to stay away from.
