February 16- 28, 2017
ASEAN
Saudi King Visit to Malaysia
King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud arrived in Malaysia on February 26 to kick off a maiden multi-nation tour - Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan, China, the Maldives and Jordan - aimed at boosting his country’s economic ties with Asia. Saudi Arabia is attempting to strengthen its ties with key Muslim-majority nations in Asia. King Salman will be the first Saudi leader in 46 years to visit Indonesia, the country with the largest Muslim population in the world. Both Indonesia and Malaysia are said to be members of the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance that was formed in late 2015. Economics will also play a big role in the tour. China and Japan are two of the most important markets for Saudi Arabian oil and gas. Also King Salman aims to court Asian investment to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy as oil prices remain low. Reuter’s reports suggest that the kingdom will be putting $45 billion into a new technology fund with Japan's Soft Bank. Saudi Arabia also courts Asian investors for the sale of a 5% stake in state firm Aramco in 2018, expected to be the world’s biggest IPO.
The visit to Malaysia is the first by a Saudi king (with a 600+ strong delegation)in more than a decade after King Abdullah, King Salman’s half-brother and predecessor visited in 2006. Relations between the two countries have been in the spotlight over the last two years after Saudi Arabia was dragged into a multi-billion dollar corruption scandal at Malaysian state fund 1MDB, founded by Malaysian PM Razak. On February 28, Saudi Aramco announced it will invest $7 billion in Malaysian State oil firm Petronas' RAPID oil refinery making it the largest single downstream investment made by Saudi Aramco outside the kingdom. Aramco will take a 50% stake in RAPID's refinery and cracker project and will supply up to 70% of the crude feedstock requirement of the refinery, with natural gas, power and other utilities to be supplied by Petronas. In a statement to the media, PM Razak said the Saudi king’s visit would strengthen ties between the two countries in fighting terrorism based on a strong belief in tolerance, moderation and comprehensive security of Islam.
Malaysia and North Korea: Assassination Aftermath
On February 13, Kim Jong Nam, the estranged older brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was attacked in the Kuala Lumpur airport by two women who wiped a substance on his face and in his eyes. He died in an ambulance on the way to the hospital. North Korea’s ambassador in Kuala Lumpur strongly objected to an autopsy being carried out at all, saying that the victim — whom he did not identify — was carrying a diplomatic passport and was therefore not subject to Malaysian laws. Malaysia has, however, insisted that it will follow all usual procedures for investigating a suspicious death. On February 20, Malaysia recalled its ambassador "for consultations" and summoned Kang Chol, North Korea's ambassador to Kuala Lumpur, for his accusations against Malaysian government. On February 24,Malaysian police said that the autopsy showed Kim Jong Nam died of exposure to VX, a banned chemical weapon that can be absorbed through the skin or mucous membranes. Malaysia has implicated eight North Koreans, including a diplomat said to be hiding in the North Korean Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, and a scientist whom Malaysia has in custody.
South Korea has also bluntly blamed the assassination on Kim Jong Un, accusing him of trying to eliminate potential rivals to his power. The US too decided not to issue visas for North Korean diplomats who were to arrive in New York this week for talks with former US officials. The decision was made after Malaysia announced the finding of VX, a banned substance under the international Chemical Weapons Convention; but North Korea is not a signatory. Pyongyang is thought to have the world’s third-largest stocks of chemical weapons, behind the United States and Russia, and is believed to have been pursuing VX, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative website. After the autopsy results — and 11 days after the attack — teams in hazmat suits swept the Kuala Lumpur airport terminal for traces of VX or other toxins but found none and declared the terminal safe.
Myanmar: Update on Peace and Reconciliation Process
The second in series of 21st Century Panglong Conference that was due to be held in February 2017 has been now postponed to early March 2017. Meanwhile the differences between the Ethnic Armed Groups (EAOs) who have not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and the Myanmar government on the question of modalities of joining the peace process persist. This is further compounded by the fact that there have been fresh clashes between the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) and Kokang rebels, i.e. the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Kon Kyan and Maw Htike in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone. The Tatamadaw is said to have used artillery and air strikes against the armed group. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which is allied with the MNDAA in the four-member ethnic coalition known as the Northern Alliance, has appealed to the government to find the solution through peaceful negotiations.
There is a perception that government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has not been able to prevail upon Myanmar Army to stop ongoing offensives against the EAOs. Though MNDAA has not signed signing Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), but it has said that it would like to attend the 21st Century Panglong peace conference. In 2009, the Myanmar Army had attacked the MNDAA in Laukkai in connection with drug and weapon production, and took control of the Kokang area. In February 2015, MNDAA troops attacked Burma military outposts in an attempt to retake the Kokang Self-Administered Zone. The clashes went on for around four months and there were heavy casualties.
However, according to one report, 160 people have been killed in clashes between the military and EAOs in Myanmar’s Shan State in the last three months. More than 20,000 people have been displaced and the unrest has spilled over to the neighbouring Kachin State. Such a state of affairs would have a negative impact on the forthcoming Peace Conference.
Israel PM Netanyahu’s Visit to Singapore
PM Netanyahu became the first Israeli head of government to visit Singapore since the mid-1980s. Last year, Lee Hsien Loong became the first Singapore prime minister to visit Israel. During the two day visit, Netanyahu met with Singaporean President Tony Tan Keng Yam where the two discussed joint cooperative projects dealing with innovation and technology in Africa, as well as initiating direct Singapore-Tel Aviv flights. In a press briefing with Singaporean PM Lee on February 20, Lee reiterated that a two-state solution was “the only way to bring peace and security to both peoples”, referring to the long standing conflict over Palestine. Netanyahu meanwhile mentioned that his country was pursuing greater ties across Asia and stated that "Israel is pivoting towards Asia in a very clear and purposeful way". He also referred to Singapore and Israel at the news conference as being "kindred spirits." The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1969, but have ties dating back to 1965, when Israeli military advisers covertly assisted Singapore after its declaration of independence.
The Israeli leader’s stopover in Singapore before a five-day Australian tour was completely drama-free – a far cry from the regional diplomatic fallout that accompanied an official visit by then president Chaim Herzog to the city state three decades earlier. In 1986, Israel's then-President Chaim Herzog became the first Israeli head of state to visit Singapore. But when the Israeli embassy in Singapore announced the visit about a month ahead of time, it sparked protests across Muslim-majority countries Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, as well as diplomatic ire and pressure to cancel the visit. Both Malaysia and Indonesia removed their heads of mission during the visit. The unrest spurred Herzog to cancel a visit to the Philippines, which had been planned as a stop on his Asian tour. Malaysia still does not have diplomatic relations with Israel and officially does not allow Israeli passport holders to travel to its country. Indonesia also does not currently have official relations with Israel, although the country has quietly built up business ties.
INDO-PACIFIC
US Navy Carrier Group Begins Patrols in South China Sea
A United States aircraft carrier strike group began patrols in the South China Sea on 18 Feb 17 amid growing tension with China over control of the disputed waterway and concerns it could become a flashpoint under the new US administration. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group was engaging in “routine operations in the South China Sea,” the US navy said in a statement on its website. The group included a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 1’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108), and aircraft from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2. In the first official comment on these patrols, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a daily news briefing, "China always respects the freedom of navigation and over-flight all countries enjoy under international law,". He also added, "But we are consistently opposed to relevant countries threatening and damaging the sovereignty and security of littoral countries under the flag of freedom of navigation and over-flight. We hope relevant countries can do more to safeguard regional peace and stability".
The exact area of operations of the carrier group is obviously not known but it is safe to assume that it would be exercising in some of the contested waters since China’s so-called ‘nine-dash line’ includes most of the South China Sea. The freedom of the US carrier group to carry out exercises in this area cannot be disputed since the award by the PCA in July 2015 had made it clear that these were high seas. In fact, that must have been the possible reason for not calling the current exercises as "freedom of navigation" patrols. These exercises therefore have to be viewed in the light of the rather aggressive statements of the new secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and the White House spokesman, Sean Spicer, to ‘prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea’. On the other hand, the Chinese reactions have been calm and in fact muted, when compared to earlier rhetoric. The climb down by the US President from his earlier stance of “Everything is under negotiation, including One China,” to reaffirming US support for the ‘One China’ policy in his phone call with the Chinese President may have alleviated China’s fears of any untoward intentions of the US in South China Sea and underpinned its current reactions. At the same time, President Trump has also expressed his unhappiness at the building of a ‘massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea’ in a recent interview with Reuters. Considering the change in the US administration and possible implications on American foreign policy, a clear direction for American actions in the South China Sea may not be immediately forthcoming. However, the Americans will continue to undertake necessary actions, especially naval, to underline their commitment to treaty allies like Japan, Korea and the Philippines without raising undue alarm in Chinese quarters.
Indonesia and Australia for Closer Naval Cooperation
Indonesian and Australian leaders on Sunday committed to closer naval cooperation as they urged countries in the Asia-Pacific region with competing territorial claims to obey international law.Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo arrived in Sydney on Saturday on his first visit to Australia and met Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. The two leaders also witnessed the signing of an agreement on maritime cooperation that includes strengthening maritime security and border protection as well as combating crime and improving efficiency of shipping. "We have vested interests in the peace and stability in our region's seas and oceans, so we both strongly encourage the countries in our region to resolve disputes in accordance with international law which is the foundation for stability and prosperity," Turnbull said.
Indonesia, while not being involved in the territorial disputes of the South China Sea, has a tense relationship with China due to the overlapping of its EEZ in the Natuna islands with China’s so-called ‘nine-dash line’. Indonesia has adopted an aggressive stance in dealing with Chinese fishing vessels operating in its EEZ off the Natunas by even resorting to destruction of these craft. Indonesia is also in the midst of strengthening its military, especially its capabilities in the Natunas, with plans to install weapon systems and extend the existing runway to accommodate fighters. Indonesia has also entered to agreements with the Malaysia and the Philippines for coordinated joint sea patrols to secure regional waters.
Australia and Indonesia have not enjoyed a very amicable relationship in the recent past with suspension of military cooperation on language training in the last month being the latest irritant. The current rapprochement is likely intended to strengthen regional ties to provide a possible bulwark against Chinese aggression, especially when the US administration has not yet clearly defined its South China Sea policy. Indonesia’s alignments with Malaysia, the Philippines and Australia in the maritime domain are in furtherance of its aims of utilizing maritime diplomacy in building bilateral and multilateral relationships related to the maritime sector as outlined in its Global Maritime Fulcrum white paper.
SOUTH KOREA
Trilateral Statement on North Korea and THAAD
On February 27, the US, Japan, and the South Korea issued a trilateral statement on North Korea denouncing Pyongyang’s “flagrant disregard for multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions prohibiting its ballistic missile and nuclear programs”, and calling for “strong international pressure on the regime.” The statement cites UN Security Council Resolutions 2270 and 2321, which “imposed robust and comprehensive sanctions on North Korea to inhibit its campaign to develop operational nuclear and missile capabilities.” It suggests that additional “means to restrict further the revenue sources for North Korea’s weapons programs, particularly illicit activities,” may be called for. Meanwhile, as China first high-level delegation headed by State Councilor Yang Jiechi visited Washington under Trump administration, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Ri Kil-song landed in Beijing (on February 28), to make the first China visit by a high-ranking North Korean official in several months in the aftermath of abrupt coal import suspension by China.
However, Chinese media coverage of Ri Kil-song’s visit suggests Beijing is more incensed by South Korea’s interest in the American THAAD anti-missile system than North Korea’s missile tests earlier in the month. China objects to the deployment in South Korea of the THAAD, which has a powerful radar capable of penetrating Chinese territory, with Beijing saying it is a threat to its security and will do nothing to ease tension with North Korea. The board of an affiliate of South Korea's Lotte Group approved land swap with the government on February 28 that will enable South Korea to deploy THAAD on a Lotte-owned golf course in Seongju County. In an editorial on February 28, the state-run Chinese tabloid the Global Times demanded expanding restrictions on South Korean cultural goods and entertainment exports to China along with South Korean cars and cellphones. On February 8, the Lotte Group had said that Chinese authorities had stopped construction at its multi-billion dollar real estate project in China after a fire inspection, fueling South Korean concerns about damage to commercial ties with largest trading partner, China.
JAPAN
Russia Ups the Ante before Ministerial Meeting on March 20
In a report to the Russian National Assembly on February 22, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu mentioned that Russia will deploy a new military division on the disputed Northern Territories. A Russian division is said to range between 15,000 and 20,000 troops. The announcement signals that Russia is intent on establishing a long-term military base by integrating the Chishima islands with the Northern Territories. However, in a news conference later in the day, Toyohisa Kozuki, the Japanese ambassador to Russia, said Japan cannot accept the planned deployment of Russian troops on the Northern Territories. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference the government was closely monitoring Russia's actions.Suga said Russia's military plan would be on the agenda during the 2+2 meeting in Tokyo on March 20.In 2016, Russia deployed Bal and Bastion surface-to-ship missiles on Kunashiri and Etorofu islands.
Japan and Russia will hold the "2+2" dialogue between the two countries' defence and foreign ministers on March 20 in Tokyo after a hiatus of more than three years since the first meeting in November 2013. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on the need to resume 2+2 talks at their summit in Japan in December last year. Earlier in the month on February 17, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov in Bonn, Germany during the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. To resolve the peace treaty issue and seek progress in discussions about joint economic activities on the four disputed islands, they agreed to hold an official discussion on joint economic activities and other matters in Tokyo on March 18. The four islands - Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai - in the Western Pacific, called the ‘Northern Territories’ in Japan and the ‘Southern Kurils’ in Russia, were taken by Soviet forces at the end of World War Two. Lavrov remarked after talks with Kishida that the settlement would require a painstaking work. He added that its rendering in the media "in either a confrontational spirit or by encouraging excessive expectations of a quick progress" wouldn't help.
Japan to Work on International Standards for Drones
As per reports in Nikkei Asian Review, Japan is set to take the initiative in proposing international standards for drones. In Japan, the flying of drones is strictly limited by the aviation law due to fears, any accident involving them could cause serious damage, were they to fall in dense residential neighbourhoods. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) are expected to start the joint work on developing technologies for improved safety in 2018. Along with efforts towards a control system able to pinpoint drones' locations and prevent collisions, Japan intends to cooperate with foreign companies in areas such as automatic flight technology and flight data analysis. It hopes to incorporate the results of this work in its proposed international standards. The ministry hopes to finish the program plan by 2020 fiscal year and apply for approval by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), with the approval process to take about five years.
According to a survey by Yano Research Institute, the global drone market is expected to swell 80% to $20.5 billion by 2020 from where it was in 2015. A single safety standard could help Japanese manufacturers to expand their share on the international market. Also since most commercial drones are produced by Chinese companies, Japan will try to get the international community to urge China to participate in the setting of international standards and maintain commitment to those standards.
Visit by Japanese Emperor and Empress Bolster Ties with Vietnam and Thailand
The first ever visit by a Japanese Emperor and Empress to Vietnam comes at a time of growing ties between Japan and Vietnam. The weeklong visit will begin on February 28 and end with a stopover in Bangkok where Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko will meet new Thai King Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun, and pay respects to late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who passed away in October 2016. The Emperor and Empress have expressed their admiration of the “Nha nhac or ceremonial music of Hue court,” which was recognised in 2003 by UNESCO as a Masterpiece of the Oral and Intangible Heritage of Humanity, and is being performed in Japan’s Royal Palace. The 83 year old Emperor Akihito and 82 year old Empress Michiko will meet with surviving widows and children of Japanese soldiers who stayed in Vietnam after World War II, but then had to leave after the communists took control of the north in 1954.
Relations between the two countries have become improved with Japan being the Southeast Asia nation's largest provider of foreign aid. It is also the second-largest provider of foreign direct investment after South Korea. Vietnam and Japan also share anxieties over China's maritime claims to the South and East China Seas respectively. The imperial couple's trip follows a visit from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Hanoi in January 2017, when he offered US$ 1 billion to help bolster Vietnam's maritime security and agreed to expand trade and investment ties. A survey conducted by Japan’s Asian Nikkei Review in 2016 named Vietnam as the first choice for Japanese investors in ASEAN, with up to 53% of surveyed Japanese business planning to invest in Vietnam. Ambassador Cuong, Vietnam Ambassador to Japan, said that the trip is a manifestation of the development of the Vietnam-Japan relationship and will bring the relationship to new heights.
CHINA & TAIWAN
Xi’s ‘Two Guides’ Policy
Chinese President Xi Jinping has for the first time called for China to play the ‘lead’ in “shaping the new world order” and “safeguarding international security”. On earlier occasions Xi has spoken of China playing an important ‘part’ in building the new world order. However on 17 Feb 2017, Xi has reportedly spelt out his “Two Guide” policy during a national security seminar in Beijing. The said policy is different from the past and a reference to the same was made by the Chinese Communist Party’s central party school on 20 Feb 2017. The “two” here points to new world order and international security
While reporting about the said seminar, Xinhua has paraphrased Xi as having said, “The overall trend of world multi-polarization, economic globalization, and democratization of international relations remains unchanged. We should guide the international community to jointly build a more just and reasonable new world order”. In another paragraph, the state media has paraphrased Xi as saying, “We should guide the international community to jointly maintain international security.” In view of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, China’s “Two Guides” policy holds particular significance.
US and China Agree to Enhance All-Level Exchanges and Broaden Cooperation
China and the US have expressed the willingness to enhance dialogues and exchanges on all levels with an aim to broaden cooperation in regional and global affairs. As per Xinhua, the two sides have reaffirmed this pledge during a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson and visiting Chinese State Councilor, Yang Jiechi. The said visit was a follow up of the phone conversation held on 09 Feb 2017 Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump.
Speaking on the occasion, Xinhua reported Councilor Yang as having said that through implementing the consensus reached by the two Presidents and upholding the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, China is willing to work with the U.S. in the next stage to enhance exchanges on all levels from top down, deepen dialogues and mutual cooperation in all areas, broaden communication and coordination on regional and global issues, and respect each other's core interests and major concerns. On his part, Secretary Tillerson is reported to have said that the two Presidents have set a positive tone for the development of bilateral relations.
State Councilor Yang Jiechi met President Trump briefly in what was the US president’s first face-to-face talks with a member of the Chinese leadership. A senior US administration official said discussions included bilateral cooperation and the possibility of arranging a meeting between Trump and Xi, but no date was set.
During the said visit, Councilor Yang also met Vice President Mike Pence, Senior Advisor to the President Jared Kushner, White House chief strategist Steve Bannon and National Security Advisor Herbert Raymond McMaster to discuss ways in which cooperation between the two sides could be broadened.
China has Received its Largest Drone Supply Order
Xinhua has reported that an undisclosed buyer has placed the largest overseas order for China's home-developed military drones. The said order has been placed for the Wing Loong II, the next-generation unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Significantly, the buyer or the size of the order has not been mentioned. The Wing Loong II, which has wingspan of more than 20 metres (65 feet), is a medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV that has both reconnaissance and strike capabilities. China has been stepping up its research into military drones and is now seen as a competitor to the United States and Israel with its cheaper technology and willingness to sell to countries that Western states are reluctant to deal with.
With the growing importance of drones in contemporary warfare, China’s rapidly growing expertise in UAVs and the destination country that it sells these UAVs to, both have to be taken note of.
Visit of the Taiwanese Parliamentary Delegation to India Irks Beijing
Beijing expressed serious concerns at the visit of the Taiwanese Parliamentary delegation (including two MPs) to New Delhi, who interacted with some of their Indian counterparts and members of the civil society. At a regular press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, in response to a question, stated that Beijing had lodged a “solemn representation” with New Delhi for the reason that “we have been requiring countries that have diplomatic relations with China to fulfill their commitment to the One-China principle.” He added that “we hope India would understand and respect China’s core concerns and uphold the one-China principle and prudently deal with Taiwan-related issues and maintain sound and steady development of India-China relations.” This statement came shortly after China’s Global Times described India as a “provocateur” and asserted that “by challenging China over the Taiwan question, India is playing with fire.”
India, in response, dismissed Chinese protest by claiming that there was nothing “new or unusual” about the visit and that no political meaning should be read into it. The Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup describing the delegation as “a group of Taiwanese academics and business persons, including a couple of legislators”, also noted that, “such informal groups have visited India in the past as well for business, religious and tourist purposes,” and that “they do so to China as well.”
The leader of the Taiwanese delegation to India Kuan Bi-ling, however, noted with appreciation the upward swing in the bilateral relations between Taiwan and India. Speaking on the occasion, Kuan conveyed, “Taiwanese investor interest in India is growing across the board. Not only big companies like Foxconn, but Taiwanese small and medium enterprises too can succeed in India. Our New Southbound Policy of economic diversification has India as a focus country. And Taiwan can offer its expertise for Indian government initiatives like Smart Cities and Make In India.”
On the ‘One-China’ policy, Kuan stated, “It is a de facto reality,” and that Taiwan endeavoured to craft a “pragmatic approach” in their “diplomatic engagement with major countries, including India, despite these difficulties.”
Taiwan Conveys Regret at Spanish Decision to Deport Taiwanese to China in Fraud Case
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, in an official statement, expressed “deep regrets” at the decision of the Spanish government to deport around 200 Taiwanese nationals suspected of telecom fraud to China. According to the Taiwanese statement, the decision “has infringed upon the rights and interests of our people and ignored the tradition of the EU countries’ emphasis on human rights.”
The Spanish government had approved the extradition of 269 “Chinese citizens” following a year-long investigation into an ‘internet fraud ring’ which, the government believed was operating from several Spanish cities including Madrid and Barcelona. In response to this decision, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry claimed that around 200 of these suspects were ‘Taiwanese nationals’. The Foreign Ministry also confirmed that the suspects had yet not been deported from Spain and that its representatives in Spain would continue their engagement with Taiwan’s police and judicial authorities to secure the rights of the Taiwanese suspects.
China, on its part, defended the deportation of the Taiwan citizens. An Fengshan, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated in a regular press conference that the Spanish decision was taken because the victims and evidence relating to the fraud were in China. Also, according to the spokesperson, the decision “has received widespread approval from people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the international community.”
This case involving Spain is the latest in a trend which accelerated last year when Taiwanese suspected of telecom fraud were deported to China, at times forcibly (according to the Taiwanese government), from countries including Cambodia, Armenia and Kenya.
