December 16-31, 2016

ASEAN

ASEAN Joint Statement in Yangon on Rakhine State

With mounting demonstrations in support of Rohingyas in fellow ASEAN Muslim majority countries, Myanmar State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi called for an ASEAN meeting on December 19 in Yangon to respond to regional concerns over developments in Rakhine. This was the first meeting for ASEAN where a member country summoned ministers to discuss an internal affairs issue. ASEAN has held the doctrine of non-interference in the internal affairs of member countries to be sacrosanct in its institutional framework. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi flew to Naypyidaw on December 6 (at Suu Kyi’s invitation) to convey Indonesia’s strong concern and urge that humanitarian aid be allowed to reach those affected communities in Rakhine state. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak participated in a protest rally in support of Rohingyas in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia’s Cabinet issued a statement condemning the violence and called upon Myanmar to take all necessary actions to address the alleged “ethnic cleansing".

According to media reports, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers had an open, frank and constructive discussion on the complex situation in Rakhine, including the provision of humanitarian aid. After the informal meeting, the ASEAN ministers issued a joint statement reiterating their strong support for Myanmar’s democratization process and underscored the promotion of national solidarity and harmony among the various communities in Myanmar as an integral part of Myanmar's ongoing democratization and reform process. They expressed confidence and expectation that Myanmar will continue to remain consistent with its commitment on the irreversibility of the democratization and reform process in the country. They also stated that they will closely follow the Rakhine situation and implement humanitarian aid there. The statement was released following Myanmar President Thein Sein’s decision to form a commission to investigate the causes of the recent sectarian violence.

First Year of ASEAN Economic Community

After eight years of preparation, leaders of the 10-nation ASEAN regional association officially launched the ambitious ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), a treaty aimed at creating a single, seamless production base and consumer market - the world's third largest in terms of population on January 1, 2016. ASEAN Deputy Secretary General for AEC, Lim Hong Hin, in an interview with Xinhua said that 2016 saw numerous advancements towards the AEC creation, among which was the establishment of National Trade Repositories (NTRs) of all the ASEAN member states, allowing traders to get easier access and better compliance with prescribed regulations. He added that facilitating the gradual liberalization of the services sector in the regional bloc towards a free flow of service was also put into effect with the signing of the Protocol to Implement the Ninth Package of Commitments under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) this year. Lim also mentioned that a legal framework that allows elimination of substantial restriction in cross-border movement between naturalized persons has also been applied, further facilitating trade in goods, services and investments. Besides that, the bloc also saw full ratification of the ASEAN Open Skies agreements, allowing unlimited air transport for passengers and cargo in international airports of certain ASEAN member countries.

Adding to those progresses, Lim said that essential implementation of frameworks to support the AEC Blueprint 2025 has also been put into place. In addition, a number of economic priority mechanisms to support the AEC Blueprint 2025 have also been completed this year, such as the ASEAN Trade Facilitation Framework (ATFF), the ASEAN Food Safety Regulatory Framework (AFSRF), the ASEAN Institutional Framework on Access to Finance for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME), and the ASEAN Tariff Finder.

Myanmar

Islamic Militancy in Rakhine State Gains Momentum

An International Crisis Group Report and according to other media reports have pointed to Pakistani and Saudi Arabia links to the killings of nine Myanmar police personnel on 09 October 2016 in northern Rakhine State. Based on the interviews carried out by the ICG as also from other sources it has been revealed that that a Rohingya by the name of Ata Ullah, born and later trained in Pakistan, who has also appeared prominently in a series of nine videos posted online, is one of the leaders of the group called Harakah al-Yaqin, or ‘the Faith Movement’. He had trained several Rohingyas in Rakhine in guerilla operations and tactics.

Another name that has been figuring in the conflict is Abdus Qadoos Burmi, a Pakistani of Rohingya descent. Apparently he has also appeared in videos that have spread on social media as well as in bulletins issued by his group, Harkat ul Jihad Islami-Arakan (HUJI-A), which either is part of or linked to Harakah al-Yaqin. Qadoos Burmi, is also said to be linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its political wing, Jamat ud Dawah (JuD).

The operations in Rakhine were being funded and guided by Harakah al-Yaqin group based in Saudi Arabia. The group largely consists of Rohingya immigrants. The group appears to have been formed after the Buddhist-Muslim communal riots in 2012. It has also been reported that a senior Islamic scholar, Ziabur Rahman, a Saudi-educated Rohingya is providing the religious discourse and is vested with the authority of issuing fatwas. Many other Islamic clerics from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Pakistan as also from other countries have backed Rohingya cause under the Islamic law. The Faith Movement’s videos were uploaded almost immediately after the border attacks on their group’s YouTube and Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda (AQ)-affiliated Telegram channels. Pakistan based terror outfits L-e-T, Jamatul Mujahideen and Pakistani Taliban have reportedly given full assistance to the Rohingiya militants. There are also reports that most of the Rohingya militants were recruited from the refugee camps in Cox's Bazar area in Bangladesh.

Such a grouping presents a tough challenge to the Myanmar government which is already dealing with many insurgencies almost along its entire periphery. The heavy handed response from the Myanmar military has resulted in killings of 86 Rohingyas and their internal displacement in large numbers (some reports indicate 30,000 as displaced and other 27,000 as having sought refuge in Bangladesh). While Aung San Suu Kyi has attempted to address the plight of Rohingyas the military has its own outlook in dealing with problem. With military dominated Constitution it has been difficult for Suu Kyi to find a modus vivendi on the Rohingya issue who are termed as Bengalis by Myanmar and not recognized as an ethnic minority.

Thailand

Seeking Enhanced Defense Collaboration through Multiple Partnerships

In a visit to Beijing during December 12-13, Thai Defense Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan negotiated with his Chinese counterpart, Chang Wanquan, to set up joint military production facilities in Thailand and strengthen cooperation in military exercises while maintaining frequent high-level visits between the two militaries. General Prawit also met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and confirmed Thailand's intention to jointly develop the Nong Khai-Bangkok railway as part of China's One Belt, One Road network, and an internet superhighway that China could use for business with Southeast Asia. The Thai and Chinese air forces held a joint military exercise in 2015 for the first time ever. Same year, Thailand also bought tanks from Beijing and signed a multi-billion-dollar contract to buy its first submarines from China. Thai Defense Ministry spokesman Kongcheep Tantravanich mentioned during press briefing on the visit, that Thailand had held similar talks of joint military production with Russia, but did not elaborate on the details. General Prawit had apparently mentioned in November that Bangkok would supply Russia with agricultural products and food in exchange for military and engineering equipment.

On the other hand, Japan is seeking to win a contract to supply Thailand with fixed-position FSP-3 radar system built by Mitsubishi Electric Corp. Yoshiyuki Sugiyama; Chief of Staff of the Air Self Defense Force had also visited Bangkok in November to discuss areas of possible cooperation. Since the May 2014 military coup in Bangkok, Washington has issued statutory obligation restricting its arms makers from selling military equipment to Thailand.

Philippines

Duterte to Visit Moscow

President Duterte had earlier reached out to China, and is now seeking greater engagement with Russia which is also considered a rival to the US-led global order. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, after tensions with China over disputed territory in South China Sea following Hague Ruling, made a high profile trip to Beijing in October, during which he announced his country’s “separation” from the US. Duterte will now visit Moscow in early 2017 at President Putin’s invitation. However, Igor Khovaev, Russian Ambassador to Philippines, and Perfecto Yasay Jr, Philippines foreign minister, have both stated to the media that no military alliance will occur. Yasav Jr while reiterating commitment to the 1951 security treaty and wider relations with the US said that military cooperation and closer ties with Russia will be explored under Duterte’s “independent foreign policy”.

He mentioned that emphasis of the visit will be on increasing Philippines’ exports of agricultural products and tapping Russian investment and technology in areas such as mining, oil exploration, communications and surveillance. Further, Philippines could also buy a batch of assault rifles from Moscow, 26,000 according to media reports- for its police force. A planned sale from the US was halted because of contention over Duterte’s violent drug war. However, Duterte has expressed optimism in working with US administration under Donald Trump who also invited him to visit the White House.

Indo – Pacific

Drama over a Drone

The Chinese Navy seized a US underwater drone as it was about to be retrieved by a US naval vessel approximately 50 nautical miles NW of Subic Bay in the Philippines on 15 Dec 16. It was the first such seizure by the Chinese in recent memory. The incident occurred days after President-elect Donald J. Trump raised China’s hackles by suggesting that his administration could abandon a bedrock agreement on Taiwan’s status that has kept peace in the area for decades. The Chinese Navy subsequently returned the drone to US Pacific Fleet on Monday near the location where it was initially seized.

The drone is one of approximately 130 similar underwater vehicles used by the US Navy to collect unclassified oceanographic data, including temperature and depth. At the time of the incident, the drone was one of two deployed by the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey vessel with a semi-civilian/military crew operating in the area. The USN operates these vessels to collect bathymetric data in areas of interest. This data is utilized for ocean research as also for aiding sonar operations from naval ships and submarines. The ship was operating in areas beyond the Filipino territorial waters but clear of the so-called ‘nine-dash’ line claimed by China, which was debunked by the PCA in its award of July 2016. The Bowditch had been tailed by the Chinese vessel, a PLAN Dalang III auxiliary during its operations. The Chinese justification for picking up the drone on account of ‘navigational safety’ therefore does not wash as also their claim that it was operating in Chinese coastal waters. The status of drones vis-à-vis international maritime law is also not clear since these are relatively new entrants to the maritime domain. What seems to clearly emerge is the Chinese intention of not accepting hitherto ‘acceptable’ acts and a clear assertion of their capability to undertake action as deemed fit to such perceived inimical actions. The Obama administration has handled the incident in a restrained manner despite the aggressiveness of the President-elect Trump on the issue. Notwithstanding this incident, the US is unlikely to cease such reconnaissance in such areas, which China deems to be of national interest, anytime in the near future.

Operationalisation of the Liaoning

A Chinese navy formation, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, headed towards the West Pacific on 24 Dec 16 for scheduled blue water training, according to Chinese Navy spokesperson Liang Yang. The formation was observed by the Japanese Navy to be sailing toward the West Pacific through the Miyako Strait between Okinawa-hont and Miyako-jima. Earlier, the Chinese Navy had stated that the Liaoning had participated in the first live-fire exercise for its battle group in the Bohai Sea. The same statement also quoted the Chief of the PLAN’s training bureau as saying that the event was part of the aircraft carrier's training schedule and aimed at verifying capabilities of personnel and weapons.

Since its commissioning in 2012, the Liaoning has been extensively sailing to meet the requirements for operationalisation. During this period, the PLAN has integrated operations of the carrier-borne aircraft, the J-15 Flying Shark, with the carrier. The earlier live-fire drills were intended for integration of the aircraft carrier and its aircraft with the rest of the fleet. The current long range deployment to the Western Pacific is obviously meant to consolidate these achievements and increase the range of PLAN operations. The deployment will also increase the PLAN’s footprint beyond the notional ‘Second-Island chain’, which extends from Japan through the Marianas to Guam and thence to Indonesia. This would be an achievement of a major milestone in the course charted out by the father of the modern Chinese navy, Admiral Liu Huaqing, for the PLAN to establish control till the Second Island chain by 2020. Notwithstanding these milestones, the operationalisation of a carrier-based naval capability is distinctive and will provide the PLAN and China with a wider set of options to pursue its national security objectives.

North Korea

Nuclear Ambitions to Pick Pace In 2017

In his first media conference on December 27 since his defection in August, Thae Yong-ho, (erstwhile North Korean diplomat in London and the senior most North Korean official to defect in nearly two decades) — claimed that Kim Jong Un had issued a directive at a rare ruling party congress in May this year to “complete” nuclear weapons development at all costs by the end of 2017. Thae stated that though he was not privy to the exact status of nuclear program, according to North Korean calculations, since US and South Korea are in political transition with appointing new leaders, they would not be able to take physical or military actions to deter North Korea's nuclear development. Also North Korea was confident that China would not punish North Korea too harshly out of fear that the North’s collapse would create a pro-American, unified Korea at its border. Though North Korea carried out two nuclear tests in 2016, Pyongyang’s capabilities are disputed since it has never successfully tested an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, according to a report (released on December 25) by South Korean Think Tank, the Institute for National Security Strategy, North Korea might be able to develop ICBMs capable of hitting the US mainland by 2020 and had secured a technology to miniaturise nuclear warheads and load them onto its Scud and Nodong ballistic missiles to hit the US.

North Korea: Not a Digital Backwater

According to a report by the South Korean Defence Agency for Technology and Quality (DATQ), and a simulation study by the Pentagon, a full-blown cyber-attack by Pyongyang had the capacity to paralyse the control centre for the United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) while inflicting damage upon the power grid in US mainland. The South Korean DATQ report also revealed that a 2013 mass attack by North Korea that hit three major South Korean banks, their affiliates, three TV broadcasters, and infected some 48,000 computers with malicious codes caused around 900 billion won (S$1 billion) of damage. This is surprising since North Korea has one of the world’s slowest connections with average speed of 2.0 Mbps, compared to South Korea which is the world’s fastest at 26.7 Mbps. The South Korean defence ministry has estimated that Pyongyang has an around 6,800-strong unit (some estimate it as 30,000) consisting of cyber warriors, with extensive expertise in conducting attacks. North Korea had also been pinpointed by the US as the culprit behind the 2014 cyber-attack on Sony Pictures. Earlier in December, it was revealed that the South Korean military's Intranet was breached by North Korean hackers and resulted in an unspecified number of military secrets being leaked.

Japan

Japan Ratifies TPP

On December 9, Japan’s upper House of Councilors voted 165-70 to approve the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) following prior approval from the lower House of Representatives on November 10 this year. Despite US President-elect vowing to renounce TPP on first day in office, and Shinzo Abe’s earlier statement that going ahead with TPP without US participation would be ‘meaningless’, Abe’s decision to go ahead with the trade deal is significant. Abe told the Diet it was important for Japan to “send a message about the TPP’s strategic and economic significance of creating a fair economic grouping” even when the prospect of its implementation is uncertain. Further though deregulation in agriculture remains an issue, TPP’s deregulation of trade in services along with increase in inward FDI and focus on Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is understood to greatly benefit Japan’s flagging economy.

Abe has touted increased tax revenue as one of the successes of his "Abenomics" economic and fiscal policy mix that includes bold monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. But, the downgraded estimate for fiscal 2016 tax revenue and Bank of Japan giving up its 2% inflation target, has led to serious questions on Abe’s capability to reboot an economy plagued by deflation and demographic decline. However, TPP is more than an economic lever for Japan. It is a means to keep the US "engaged" economically as well as militarily in East Asia and committed to Japan’s security. Though, the TPP agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries can take effect only when it has been ratified by at least six members that together account for 85% or more of the GDP of the signatories combined. In other words, the deal needs to be ratified by the US that accounts for 60% of its GDP.

Japan’s ratification has now led to increased speculations that Trump may renegotiate despite his vehement opposition or there may be efforts by remaining countries to salvage the TPP by changing its rules so that it can enter into force without the participation of the US.

Abe-Putin Summit: the Peace Treaty Dilemma Continues

Abe held his 16th Japan-Russia summit with Russian President Putin from December 15-16 in Nagato, Yamaguchi Prefecture and Tokyo. A lingering territorial dispute over the four islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Habomai and Shikotan (called the ‘Northern Territories’ by Japan and ‘Southern Kuril Islands’ by Russia) — has led to Japan and Russia being unable to negotiate a peace treaty even after seven decades post-World War II. In a press conference with Japanese media prior to the summit, Putin contemptuously remarked that Russia has no territorial problems; it is only Japan that believes it has territorial problems with Russia. Post the December 15-16 summit, Putin stated that the lack of a Japan-Russia peace treaty was an ‘anachronism’, but insisted that he will stand by the 1956 Japan-Soviet Union Joint Declaration, though the terms of transfer and question of sovereignty still remain ambiguous. The 1956 declaration proposed that the smaller islands of Shikotan and Habomai be returned to Japan upon the conclusion of the peace treaty.

However, Japan remains steadfast on Russia first recognizing Japan’s territorial sovereignty over the four disputed islands and then concluding the peace treaty. Notwithstanding the peace treaty dilemma, Japan and Russia agreed to expand joint economic engagement under an eight-point cooperation plan proposed by Abe totaling around ¥300 billion (about US$ 2.5 billion) and covering over 60 projects from energy sector, tourism, to the industrialization of the Russian Far East. However, legalities remain over whether Japanese or Russian laws will apply to the joint economic projects on the disputed islands. Yet with an undergoing power transition in the region, the need to counterbalance the growing political and military clout of China as well as to handle the North Korean threat, has made good relations with Moscow vital for Japan. Even by expanding Japan’s involvement in developing the Russian Far East – where Chinese state and private sector investors’ presence has been rapidly accelerating, Abe can counter growing Russia- China ties. Japan and Russia will resume bilateral “2-plus-2” talks between defense and foreign ministers from next year.

Abe’s efforts at engagement with Putin and Russia thus go beyond the purview of bilateral relations and can be viewed in the larger geostrategic prism.

Okinawa: Osprey Crash, Land Return and Protests

Despite the biggest land return of 10,000 acres under Northern Training Area on December 22 by US forces since the 1972 return of Okinawa Prefecture itself to Japan, Okinawans remained tense. With less than 1% of total land area of Japan, Okinawa Prefecture hosts about three-fourths of all US military facilities in Japan. Frustrated since decades with the noise, crime and accidents linked to US bases, one of the biggest sources of contention among citizens has been the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and its relocation on the Okinawa Island. Since 1996, two decades of uncertainty have followed the decision to transfer the Futenma base from the crowded residential area of Ginowan to the less populated Henoko coastal area of Nago on the Okinawa Island. The Japanese Central government despite strong Okinawan opposition finally began work to build the base in Henoko Bay in October 2015. However, Takeshi Onaga, who was elected Okinawan governor in 2014, revoked the approval for land reclamation work and sued the central government. With a halt on all construction activity in March 2016 due to the legal tussle, tensions further inflamed after the rape and murder of an Okinawan woman on March 13 by a US Marine.

The December 13 crash-landing of a US Marines Osprey aircraft off Nago (and resumption of its flights only six days later) along with the December 20 Supreme Court ruling in favor of the central government on construction of the new US military base has led to a fresh wave of citizen protests. In a press conference soon after, Tomomi Inada, Defense Minister noted the accident as “unfortunate” while Abe mentioned the accident as “extremely regrettable”. Japanese Central government however maintained that the current relocation plan is "the only solution" for removing the dangers posed by the Futenma base which is situated close to schools and homes, without undermining the perceived deterrence provided by the Japan-US alliance. With strained ties between the local and central governments, Governor Takeshi Onaga skipped the celebration ceremony on the land return and instead attended a citizens' rally against Osprey helicopters.

Under a 2012 US-Japan troop redeployment agreement, only 10,000 US marines would remain on Okinawa, while 5,000 US marines would be relocated to Guam and another 4,000 to other Pacific locations such as Hawaii or Australia. The relocation move expected to cost US$ 8.6 billion includes a US$3.1 billion cash commitment from Japan.

Abe’s Pearl Harbor Visit: End of Postwar Era

As per Asahi Shimbun, after announcing the Pearl Harbor trip on December 5, Abe is said to have remarked to close associates that, “If I go to Pearl Harbor, the ‘postwar era’ will come to a complete end for Japan and the United States”. Shinzo Abe, Japan’s first Prime Minister born post World War II, is well known for his nationalist agenda and desire to bolster the US-Japan alliance. With growing ambiguity on US’s security commitment to Japan following Trump’s election to US presidency, Abe’s visit to Pearl Harbor not only sanctified the US-Japan alliance but also reiterated its inviolable nature. While both Abe and US President Obama hailed Pearl Harbor as the ‘symbol of reconciliation’ between former enemies turned allies, Abe emphasized that Japan would never repeat the horrors of war again. In a bid to calm domestic and international fears over his new security reforms, Abe has transformed from an erstwhile historical revisionist to a pragmatic nationalist in his second innings as Prime Minister. Abe’s visit also indicates his desire to settle the ghosts of Japan’s World War II history once and for all and ensure that future generations are not burdened by having to apologize for Japan’s World War II history. His visit follows Obama’s visit to Hiroshima in May earlier this year, the first by a sitting US president to the city devastated by US’s atomic bomb. Obama’s visit though not accompanied by an apology, was seen as a ‘healing touch’ and received tremendous approval from the Japanese public who wanted a US president to acknowledge the devastation of the atomic attack.

Despite earlier efforts at historical revisionism, Abe’s desire for future-oriented foreign relations is also manifested in the agreement reached with South Korea in December 2015 to provide support measures to former “comfort women” who were forced to provide sex to imperial Japanese military personnel during World War II era.

China & Taiwan

President Xi Open to Growth below 6.5 percent

A Bloomberg report has stated that at a recent meeting of the CPC’s Financial and Economic Leading Group chaired by President Xi, China was open to the economic growth objective falling below 6.5 per cent.

Last year, Chinese policymakers had pledged to maintain an annual growth rate of at least 6.5 percent for the next five years till 2020. This pledge was made so as to achieve the party’s promise of building a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020. This entails the GDP and income levels of 2010 to be doubled by 2020. A lower growth target is understood to be under consideration due to concerns of rising debt and an uncertain global environment. China’s Debt-to-GDP ratio is said to have risen to about 270 percent this year and many experts believe is slowly becoming unsustainable.

Experts have argued that China’s sticking to a growth target of 6.5 percent was becoming an impediment to necessary structural adjustments and was also a culprit for its rapidly rising debt risk. Hence many including the International Monetary Fund have recommended a lower growth target. Most experts agree that the consideration of a lower growth rate is a positive change, as being open to a slower pace in the medium to long term will help in adjusting the economic structure and dissolving the risks, thereby boosting the long-term health of the economy. However, the present shift also signals that leaders see systemic risk as great enough to warrant re-evaluating of key goals (achievement of the first of the centenary goal) and may be less inclined to add to fiscal and monetary stimulus in future.

Developments in Taiwan

Taiwan’s President to Visit the US despite Objections from China

Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen will transit through the United States during her January visit to countries in Latin America, prompting China to repeat a call for the US to block any such stopover. The trip, which sees representation from a 90-member strong Taiwanese delegation, is a part of a tour which includes brief state visits to Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador.

This transit visit has invited fierce opposition from the highest echelons of power within Beijing. China's Foreign Ministry reiterated a previous call for the United States not to allow the transit and not send any "wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces"."We think everyone is very clear on her real intentions," the ministry said, without explaining.

Sao Tome’s Diplomatic Defection from Taiwan towards Mainland China earns Applause from Beijing

Sao Tome and Principe, a small island nation off the west coast of Africa, decided to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This move is significant not only because it reduces the already puny number of countries (now 21) who have established formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but also marks a departure away from the trend of restraint (in the context of switching diplomatic relations) established under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeo.

The move may signal a change in Beijing’s approach towards Taiwan - a return to confrontationist means, an expression of “checkbook diplomacy” (it is being considered if the move was triggered by Taipei’s refusal to a request for about $200 million in financial support), or could even trigger a domino effect within countries, previously on the hedge, but eager to entrench their relations with China, now perceived as the richer benefactor.

Taiwanese Reaction to the Entry of Chinese Carrier into South China Sea amid renewed Tension between Beijing and Taipei

Beijing’s aircraft carrier, the ‘Liaoning’, accompanied by a fleet of other PLA navy vessels, cruised past Taiwan, on the 26th of December, on its way to the South China Sea. The carrier group passed 90 nautical miles south of Taiwan's southernmost point via the Bashi Channel, between Taiwan and the Philippines. Significantly, senior Taiwan opposition Nationalist lawmaker, Johnny Chiang, said the Liaoning exercise was a part of Chinese efforts to indicate to the United States that it has broken through the "first island chain," - an area that includes Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan. This incident is being interpreted as a part of China’s efforts to put pressure on Tsa Ing-wen’s administration to project its enhanced naval capability in the waters around Taiwan.