DuterteDiscards Peace Talks with Communists

On February 4, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte scrapped peace talks with communist rebels and asked several rebel leaders who were freed for the negotiations to return to prison or face arrests in the latest blow to efforts to peacefully settle one of Asia’s longest-running rebellions. In a news conference in southern Davao City, Duterte said he would ask government negotiators not to participate in talks with the Maoist guerrillas scheduled to resume this month in Norway, repeating that “peace with the communists might not come in this generation.” Duterte made his remarks a day after he lifted the government’s 6-month-old cease-fire with the rebels and ordered troops to prepare for new fighting after the guerrillas abandoned their own truce and killed six soldiers in fresh violence. Resuming talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People’s Army, and Muslim rebel groups was one of his key campaign promises, along with launching a crackdown against illegal drugs.

The new developments are a blow to the talks brokered by Norway scheduled between February 22-25 toward the goal of ending one the 48-year Marxist insurgency, which has left about 40,000 combatants and civilians dead. The rebels and the government declared separate cease-fires last year as they resumed peace talks. That allowed the Philippines government to withdraw troops from battlefields to focus on a month long offensive against the Abu Sayyaf and other Muslim extremist groups in three battlefronts in the south. The prospect of new fighting with the Maoist rebels, estimated to number 3,700, comes after Duterte announced that he would enlist the already overburdened military in his anti-drug crackdown after prohibiting the national police and the National Bureau of Investigation from enforcing his campaign due to corruption and an extortion scandal.

Philippines Accused of Human Rights Abuses by Amnesty International

London-based human rights group Amnesty International on February 1, accused the Philippines police/ their hired assassins of being paid thousands of pesos by authorities to kill suspects in the government’s war on drugs, an operation that amounted to crimes against humanity. Since President Rodrigo Duterte came to office last year, there have been more than 7,000 drug-related killings, with the police directly killing at least 2,500 alleged drug offenders, the group noted. In a news conference in Quezon City, the group said President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs had been tainted with human rights violations. It claimed that the war on drugs was the systematic killing of the poor and the defenceless with the blessings of top government officials. “This is not a war on drugs, but a war on the poor. Often on the flimsiest of evidence, people accused of using or selling drugs are being killed for cash in an economy of murder,” Tirana Hassan, Amnesty International’s crisis response director, said. Amnesty International’s report also claimed the police enriched themselves by stealing from victims’ homes, including objects of sentimental value.

INDO-PACIFIC

PLAN Foray into the Middle East

A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) naval escort taskforce visited Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Qatar from mid-January till 06 Feb 17. The 24th Chinese naval escort force, comprising the guided-missile destroyer Harbin (Hull 112), the guided-missile frigate Handan (Hull 579) and the supply ship Dongpinghu (Hull 960), was on a goodwill visit to the Persian Gulf after completing its anti-piracy deployment in the Gulf of Aden. The Task Force is currently in Pakistan, taking part in the Pakistan Navy’s multinational Aman 2017 exercise.

During its visits to these countries, the personnel of the taskforce met naval officials, visited naval facilities and warships, held joint cultural and sports activities and conducted joint small-scale drills with the host navies. Commenting on the significance of the visits to the four Persian Gulf countries, Rear Admiral Bai Yaoping, commanding officer of the 24th Chinese naval escort taskforce, said that the 700-odd Chinese sailors have just completed a trip along the “Maritime Silk Road” and brought the friendly affection of the Chinese people and military to the four Middle-East countries.

China is gradually increasing its outreach to countries further along the so-called 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) as a part of a calculated strategy to increase its influence. More than 40 % of China’s oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf. This dependence on oil from the Middle East is unlikely to reduce in the near future. Monitoring this area is therefore important to the PLAN. PLAN ships have been regularly deployed to the Gulf of Aden but they have not visited the Persian Gulf except on a handful of occasions despite the PLAN policy of goodwill visits to various countries either enroute or on return from such deployments. This is only the second visit of the PLAN to Kuwait and the third visit to UAE. While China enjoys excellent relations with Pakistan, it does not have similar relations with the Gulf states. PLAN deployments, like these are intended to address this lacuna in its foreign policy outreach. The frequency of such visits is likely to increase as also the interaction with these navies. While goodwill visits to countries by navies are largely routine, it is the interaction with host navies that needs to be carefully watched. Increased interaction like joint training and exercises can bring about arms sales leading to creation of some dependency on China which can cause concern in this critically important region of the world’s energy supplies. However, it is too early to make any assumptions on this score and developments should be closely analysed in this domain in the near future.

Trump’s Abrupt Phone Call to Australia

US ties with staunch ally Australia struck a discordant note on February 2 after details about an acrimonious phone call between its leaders emerged and US President Donald Trump said a deal between the two nations on refugee resettlement was "dumb." Australia and the United States are among five nations that make up the Five Eyes group, the world's leading intelligence-sharing network. During a 25-minute phone call on January 28, with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Trump accused Australia of trying to export the "next Boston bombers" under the agreement. The Washington Post, which cited unidentified senior US officials, said that Trump abruptly ended the call and told Turnbull that it was the "worst call by far" he had with a foreign leader. However, once media reports emerged on February 2, Trump told reporters at the White House that he would "respect" the refugee agreement with Australia. Prime Minister Turnbull too reaffirmed that Australia's relationship with the United States remained "very strong."

The description of the call and a subsequent tweet from Trump promising to study what he called a "dumb deal" caused concern among lawmakers from Republican and Democratic parties. Representative Steny Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House of Representatives, urged Trump to apologize, while Republican Senator John McCain, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said he called Australia's US ambassador to express his support. During former President Barack Obama's administration, the United States agreed to resettle up to 1,250 asylum seekers held in offshore processing camps on Pacific islands in Papua New Guinea and Nauru. In return, Australia would resettle refugees from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

JAPAN

Abe-Trump Summit: Reaffirmation of US Commitment

Shinzo Abe became the second foreign head of state to hold a summit with US President Donald Trump after his inauguration on February 10. President Trump dispelled all Japanese fears of a US retrenchment from the Asia-Pacific region by stating that "we are committed to the security of Japan and all areas under its administrative control and to further strengthening our very crucial alliance. The bond between our two nations and the friendship between our two peoples runs very, very deep. This administration is committed to bringing those ties even closer," he added. A joint US-Japanese statement said the US commitment to defend Japan through nuclear and conventional military capabilities is unwavering. The joint statement further affirmed that Article 5 of the US-Japan security treaty covered the disputed islands in East China (Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China). Ironically, Trump earlier on a phone call on February 8 with Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to honour the “One China” policy. During the summit, Abe invited Trump for a visit to Japan later this year which Trump accepted. It is also speculated that US Vice President Mike Pence will also visit Tokyo soon.

A senior Japanese government spokesman said Abe and Trump did not discuss currency issues and that Trump did not request a bilateral trade deal. The official told reporters that a US-Japan economic dialogue will be led by Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and Vice President Mike Pence to address fiscal and monetary policies as well as infrastructure projects and trade. Following the ballistic missile test by North Korea on February 12 during a retreat that followed the summit, Abe appearing with Trump at a news conference, condemned the missile launch as "absolutely intolerable." He said Trump had assured him of US support and that Trump's presence showed the president's determination and commitment. Trump kept his statement brief and reiterated that "I just want everybody to understand and fully know that the United States of America stands behind Japan, its great ally, 100 per cent."

Meanwhile, expatriates and Japanese demonstrated in Tokyo to denounce US President Donald Trump and his travel ban and criticized Abe for putting Japan’s relations in Asia on the back-burner. Abe declined to comment on the executive order during a joint news conference after the summit. Abe has received criticism for solely focusing on underscoring his closeness to the new president and placing the Japan-US security alliance at the forefront of all of Tokyo’s relations. Many cautioned that Abe had made himself vulnerable by seeming too eager to align himself with the American president. But in a Kyodo News poll taken after the meeting, 70 per cent of the Japanese public said they were satisfied with the talks between the two leaders, and Abe’s approval ratings rose slightly from a month earlier to close to 62 per cent.

JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

Defence Secretary Mattis’ Visit to South Korea and Japan

US Defence Secretary, James Mattis became the first official from the Trump administration to visit the Asia-Pacific region from February 1-4. In his maiden trip as defence secretary, Mattis repeatedly reassured the US allies of the Trump administration's staunch commitment to the region. During his meeting with South Korea's acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn on February 2, Mattis reassured the South Korean leader that the alliance between the two nations remains strong. In a statement issued on February 3, Mattis and his South Korean counterpart Han Min-Koo expressed grave concerns over growing threats from North Korea and agreed on the need to push ahead with the deployment of the THAAD within the year. Further, South Korea and the US also agreed to hold the largest ever Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises scheduled in March 2017. In view of growing nuclear threats from North Korea, South Korea and the United States recently reaffirmed the two countries' commitment to forming a strong joint defence posture against North Korea's provocations. The nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson also made a port call to Guam on February 10 in preparation for the March 2017 military drill.

During his visit to Japan on February 3-4, Mattis did not broach the contentious subject of defence burden sharing during a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Tomomi Inada. In fact, at the joint news conference on February 4, Mattis praised the cost-sharing between Japan and the United States on maintaining US military presence and referred to it as an example for other nations to follow. A 2004 report by the Pentagon showed that Japan’s burden sharing is the highest among nine US allies. Japan picks up 74.5 per cent of the costs, while the ratio for Italy, South Korea and Germany came to 41 per cent, 40 per cent and 32.6 per cent, respectively. Mattis also harshly criticized China's maritime activities in the East and the South China Sea as "confrontational." With regard to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Mattis confirmed the US view that the islands are territories under Japanese administration and, therefore, covered by Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty. Article 5 obliges the United States to defend Japanese territories.

On the issue of North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs, he agreed that those programs pose a serious threat to the security of Japan, the United States and the region. With regard to the plan to relocate US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, to the Henoko district of Nago, also in the prefecture, Mattis said that Henoko is the only solution. However, the decision met with criticism from the Okinawa Governor Takeshi OnagaOnaga, who has demanded the base be moved outside Okinawa in view of local opposition to the relocation plan.

NORTH KOREA AND SOUTH KOREA

North Korea Ballistic Missile Test

North Korea’s latest ballistic missile test happened on February 12, when US President Trump was hosting Japanese PM Abe post their summit meeting. In a news conference soon after, Abe described the test as "absolutely intolerable" and said North Korea must comply with UN Security Council resolutions. Trump too reiterated "I just want everybody to understand, and fully know, that the United States of America is behind Japan, our great ally, 100 per cent." In a media statement, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the missile was fired from around Banghyon, North Pyongan Province, where the North had earlier test-launched its powerful midrange Musudan missile on October 15 and 20, last year. A report on the launch carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency said Kim Jong Un had watched from an observation post and gave the order to fire the "Pukguksong-2," which it said was a "Korean style new type strategic weapon system." The report said the test proved "the reliability and security" of a new mobile launching system, the solid fuel that was used and the guidance and control features of the ballistic missile. The report also said the test verified control and guidance capabilities and said the missile can be "tipped with a nuclear warhead."

Though the missile is reported to have made a high arc before splashing down in international waters after traveling some 310 miles, some analysts place the likely maximum range of the missile at 1,870 miles (others estimate a shorter range of just 750 miles). Trump was criticized for risking national security after photos emerged of him discussing North’s missile test in an area accessible to the public. The Trump administration is under pressure to formulate a coherent North Korea policy amid warnings that the North Korean regime could fast gain intercontinental ballistic missile capacity. However, unlike Trump’s aggressive tweets in early January this year, his response on the North Korean provocation has been quite measured to avoid raising tensions. More stringent UN sanctions and the quick deployment of THAAD missile defence system in South Korea are possible courses of action by Washington. The United States, Japan and South Korea requested urgent diplomatic talks at the United Nations on February 13 over North Korea's latest ballistic missile launch.

South Korean President Park to face Prosecutors

South Korean politics recently witnessed the clash between executive powers and prosecutors on February 07, 2017. The long standoff was witnessed outside the Blue House, when prosecutors demanded the entry into Blue House to conduct court-approved search warrant. The extensive investigation conducted by South Korean prosecutors establishes clear evidences against President Park and may question her in recent future. The prosecutors have implicated Park, who was impeached in December, in bribery and other crimes as part of a broader influence-peddling investigation that has ensnared figures from the highest levels of South Korean politics and industry. Since the impeachment, Park’s presidential duties have been suspended while a constitutional court in a separate proceeding decides whether to remove her permanently. The stakes in the scandal were high already, but events in recent days have ratcheted up the pressure, with key deadlines looming that could decide her political future in South Korean politics. The Constitutional Court in Seoul is now deliberating whether to approve the impeachment, which would trigger new elections, or to allow her to see out her five-year term.

CHINA & TAIWAN

US-China Relations: Easing of tensions

Based on last fortnights events namely, the ‘Trump-Xi’ telephone call and Defense Secretary Mattis’s recent comments it appears that the tensions in US-China relations may be easing out slightly. Post the then President-elect Donald Trump’s questioning of Washington’s continuance to adhere by its ‘one China’ principle, the Chinese government had made it clear that the ‘One China’ principle was non-negotiable. As a consequence US-China relations had turned frosty.

These tensions were initially assuaged by the statement made by Defense Secretary Mattis during his recent press conference in Japan. On being asked as to whether the U.S. needs to adopt a more assertive policy in the South China Sea, he had said: “there is no need right now at this time for military maneuvers or something like that, that would -- that would solve something that's best solved by the diplomats. At the same time, freedom of navigation is absolute, and whether it be commercial shipping or our U.S. Navy, we will practice in international waters and transit international waters as appropriate. So, at this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all."

In response to these comments, the official English-language China Daily newspaper in an editorial had said that Mattis’s comments, during a tour of Japan and South Korea last week, were a “mind-soothing pill” that had “dispersed the clouds of war that many feared were gathering over the South China Sea”.Tensions were further eased by the Trump-Xi telephone call on 09 Feb 2017. The White House readout of the said call states: “President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China had a lengthy telephone conversation on Thursday evening. The two leaders discussed numerous topics and President Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our "one China" policy….The phone call between President Trump and President Xi was extremely cordial....”

China’s version of the said call can be gauged from the 10 Feb 2017 reply given by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang when asked about the same. He said: “….We can see that the two presidents had a very good conversation, achieved a high degree of consensus on the importance of China-US relationship and on how to keep it growing, and agreed that a relationship as such will benefit people from both and all countries. In the phone call, President Trump reaffirmed the US government's commitment to the one-China policy. President Xi Jinping commended that and stressed that the one-China principle is an important political foundation of the development of China-US relations.”

Whilethese occurrences are positive, serious differences still remain in the US-China relations concerning trade and geopolitical issues such as the South China Sea. It therefore appears that though there has been some easing of tensions, a future US-China relationship based on hard realism seems to be a par for the course.

Taiwanese Reaction to US President’s Trump’s Endorsement of the ‘One China Policy’

In what is being perceived as a major turn-around and a significant diplomatic boost for Beijing, US President Donald Trump changed course and agreed to honour the ‘One China’ Policy during a phone call with the Chinese President Xi Jinping. A brief press statement released by the White House mentioned that President Trump and President Jinping had a “lengthy telephone conversation” during which “President Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our “one China” policy.”

The salience of this overture, when evaluated against the background of developments which have occurred in the past few months since Trump’s election, cannot be overstated. Not too long ago, the then President-elect had dropped hints which indicated that the ‘One China’ Policy may be up for negotiation during his term and broke with decades of precedent by accepting a congratulatory phone call from the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

Additionally, an eleven member Taiwanese delegation, led by former premier and ex-ruling party leader Yu Shyi-Kun, attended the swearing-in ceremony of the 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, on the 20th of January 2017, drawing sharp criticism at the highest levels in Beijing. Prior to the inauguration, China had urged the United States to not allow the delegation to be a part of the ceremonial celebrations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying in a regular press briefing had stated, "We again urge the relevant side in the United States not to allow the Taiwan authority to send a so-called delegation to the United States to attend the presidential inauguration and not have any form of official contact with Taiwan. China's position has already accurately and unmistakably been given to the U.S. administration and Trump's team."

Meanwhile, the statement released in response to the latest developments by the Taiwanese Presidential Office Spokesperson Huang Chung-yen emphasized that “Taiwan’s core interest is to ensure the sustainability of our country’s freedom and democracy,” and that “maintaining positive relations with the U.S. and across the Taiwan Strait are both in line with our national interest and key to regional peace and stability...(sic)”. It continued to state that “the U.S. is Taiwan’s most important strategic partner in the world...” and “as a member of the international community, Taiwan will continue to strengthen its cooperative ties with the U.S such that we can jointly further the peace, stability and welfare of this region.” The statement also acknowledged that Taiwan and the US “have been in close contact and communication regarding this development, and continue to take an effective “zero surprise” approach.”