(November 16-30, 2016)

ASEAN

ASEAN Defense Ministers Retreat and Informal Meeting with Japan

The ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Retreat (ADMM Retreat) and a subsequent informal meeting of ASEAN-Japan defense ministers were held from November 15-17 in Don Chan Palace Hotel Vientiane, Laos. During the ADMM Retreat, the ASEAN Defense Ministers discussed a range of security challenges such as ISIS, Jemaah Islamiyah to the Sulu Seas Initiative between Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Retreat also saw the demonstration of the initial phase of a Direct Communications Link (DCL) between ASEAN Defense Ministers. At the conclusion of the Retreat, Laos handed the ADMM Chairmanship to Philippines for the year 2017 which will also be ASEAN’s 50th anniversary. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Manila has already offered a new theme for its ASEAN chairmanship – “Partnering for change, engaging the world” – with six broad objectives: a “people-oriented and people-centered” ASEAN; peace and stability in the region; maritime security and cooperation; inclusive, innovation-led growth; a resilient ASEAN; and ASEAN as a model of regional and global involvement.

At the ASEAN – Japan Defense Ministers’ Informal Meeting convened right after the ADMM Retreat, Japanese defense minister Tomomi Inada unveiled the ‘Vientiane Vision’ for closer security collaboration between Tokyo and ASEAN. The vision statement laid three directions for future ASEAN-Japan defense cooperation: (i) promoting and enhancing the rule of law through supporting ASEAN's effort to uphold principles of international law, especially in the field of maritime and air space; (ii) promoting maritime security through supporting ASEAN's effort to build up capabilities for ISR and search and rescue; and (iii) promoting maritime security through supporting ASEAN's effort to build up capabilities in various fields. Strong emphasis will be given to Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) initiatives along with landmine and UXO clearance, cyber security, defense buildup planning (sharing know-how), etc.

INDONESIA

Islamic Identity and Domestic Politics

Violent protests along with a fatwa following blasphemy accusations on the Chinese-Christian governor of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (known as Ahok), have raised questions on the growing radicalism and conservatism in the fairly moderate and pluralist Muslim-dominant nation of Indonesia. The current crisis has brought ‘religious identity’ to the forefront in political agendas and seeks to undermine citizenship as a key organizing principle in the home of "smiling Islam." The notorious Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) have been the prime group rallying against Ahok, who they allege insulted Islam, when he said Quranic verse of Al-Maidah 51 should not prevent voters from selecting a non-Muslim leader. The meaning and application Al-Maidah 51 has since been subject to debate from noted Islamic scholars to ordinary public and ranged across fundamental questions from importance of both the Quran and "ulama" to Muslim identity and citizenship, to the meaning of the verse itself, and methods of Quranic interpretation.

Post-1997 economic crisis, Islamic parties have carved a growing role in Indonesian politics and society. The growth of a radical, fundamentalist organization, Jemaah Islamiyah, led by Abu Bakar Bashir, with suspected ties to al-Qaeda, has underscored the fragility of state control in Southeast Asian Muslim societies wherein slowing economic growth have ceased being a negotiating factor to social integration. A recent survey sponsored by the Wahid Institute (Indonesia) found 7.7% of Indonesians were willing to commit "radicalism" in the future. However the number of Indonesians who have travelled to Syria to support Islamic State has been sizably low considering it is the most populous Muslim nation in the world.

MYANMAR

Ethnic Unrest: China Offers Support

Ethnic unrest in Northern parts of Myanmar has been on the increase. Ethnic Armed Groups like Kachin Independent Army, Kokangs, United Wa State Army and even Arakan Army have been fighting the Myanmar Army. While KIA leaders had attended the 21st century Panglong Conference in end August the other non-signatory groups i.e. those who had not signed the National Ceasefire Agreement had not attended the Peace Conference. The ongoing clashes between the ethnic groups and Myanmar Army are being viewed as a setback to State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s main objective of achieving peace and reconciliation with ethnic minorities. China also remains concerned with the conflict spilling over to their side of the border. Not only had this happened last year with a few Chinese civilians being killed but also in 2009 when during conflict between Kokangs and Myanmar Army many civilians had migrated across the border. There were also cases of Myanmar Army’s shells having fallen across the Chinese border which created a diplomatic spat between China and Myanmar.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a visiting Myanmar’s delegation, led by peace commission chair Tin Myo Win that Beijing was worried by the deteriorating situation and repeated a call for an end to military action and for talks to resolve disputes. Mr. Tin Myo Win on his part explained the peace process and that he understood China’s concerns and hoped to get Chinese support for ameliorating the situation.

PHILIPPINES

Philippine-US Military Relations

On November 22nd, 2016 the US Pacific Commander Admiral Harry Harris and Philippine Gen. Ricardo R. Visaya assured each other that the US and Philippine military relation remain robust and both sides are committed to their alliance and cooperation on maritime security, counterterrorism and humanitarian aid. This assurance came after threats by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to reduce military cooperation with Washington and expand security ties with China and Russia. The Philippines and the US are longstanding allies and signed a mutual defense treaty in 1951. On November 23rd, 2016 the Philippine armed forces chief had stated that five military exercises with the United States, including at least two major naval drills, will be scrapped next year. The instructions were given by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte. Visaya said the scrapped drills include an Amphibious Landing Exercise and Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training, both major naval exercises that include territorial defense training.

Duterete, in his second round of talks, reassured Abe that he has no intention to sever diplomatic ties with the US. While confirming its inclination towards Beijing Philippine Foreign Minister Perfecto Yasay during his visit to Tokyo confirmed that, “Duterte respects all bilateral security agreements with the US and that he has no intention to renege or breach them, but the exercises are not helpful in fostering Manila's friendly relations with Beijing”. Duterte’s preference to develop strong relation with China with the communist ideological flow can be sensed through whirlwind of trade deals signed between Philippines and China in October 2016 and clear indication that Duterte has downplayed the verdict pronounced by the International Tribunal against China.

THAILAND

Government Hints about Delay in Formation of next Democratic Government

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said on November 23rd, 2016 that general election is scheduled next year but unforeseen factors could delay the political roadmap. The Charter of the new constitution was signed by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and submitted for Royal Assent. Thailand would undergo major changes next year including the enforcement of the new charter which would initiate the election process. Based on present circumstances and the one year Royal Mourning period would delay the government formation. Deputy Prime Minister Krea-ngam also said that the election will take place next year. A new system is to be adopted in the next election and we will use a single ballot. Meanwhile, the CDC promised to unveil on November 24th, a draft organic law on political parties.

ISIS Presence in Thailand Confirmed

The deputy police national chief of Thailand had denied any presence of IS in Thailand on November 23rd 2016. The information was passed on to Thai authorities by Australia that some groups of Thai nationals were providing financial support to the IS. It also informed Thailand that those groups have more than 100,000 Facebook users who visited IS related online communities over the past year. Deputy police spokesman Police Maj Gen Piyapan Pingmuang said the information from Australian police was given during the annual meeting Wednesday between the police forces of the two countries. On the contrary, afterwards the Thai police acknowledged the presence of IS supporters in the Southern provinces. In the southern provinces of Thailand, near the borders with Malaysia – Nevsehir, Yala, Pattani and Songkhla – the majority of the population are ethnic Malay Muslims, while the majority of the population of the remaining 73 provinces of the country practice Buddhism.

In Nevsehir, Pattani and Yala there has been a continuous activity of the separatist IS militant groups demanding the creation of separate territory. During this intense conflict between militants and the security forces of Thailand at the southernmost region nearly 6500 thousand people were killed and most of them were civilians. Thus, with the rising influence of IS in the Southeast Asian region the IS has emerged as a great challenge for the Southeast Asian governments who are striving hard to contain the IS militants who have returned home from conflict-ridden Syria and Iraq.

VIETNAM

Vietnam Halts Nuclear Power Projects

Southeast Asia’s aspirations to increase nuclear power in the region’s energy mix by 2020 saw a setback as Vietnam’s National Assembly halted construction of the Vietnam’s first nuclear power plant. In view of spiraling project costs and country’s mounting budget deficit, the National Assembly with an overwhelming majority of 92% voted on November 22 to abandon the nuclear plants project. In 2009, the legislature had approved plans to build two plants with the help of Russia’s Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation and a group of Japanese firms (JINED) headed by Japan Atomic Power. The proposed plants located in central Ninh Thuan province would have had a combined capacity of 4,000 megawatts.

Decreasing prices of renewable energy like solar and wind power along with revision of annual power demand from 17-20% in 2009 to 11% at present (and further expected to go down) have played a big role in the construction halt. Nguyen Xuan Phuc who assumed office of Prime Minister after the resignation of Nguyen Tan Dung has also favored financially prudence over large government spending. The 2011 disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and consequent anxiety among Vietnamese citizens have also been stated as reasons for the abrupt halt of Vietnam’s ambitious desire to acquire Nuclear Energy.

INDO - PACIFIC

China Hones its Military Might

China's navy revealed for the first time that all three Chinese naval fleets - South Sea, East Sea and North Sea fleets - had conducted a joint large-scale exercise in September, amid the controversy over South Korea's deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. The exercise involved more than 100 vessels and a number of aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an exercise using live ammunition in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, according to an article posted on the Chinese Navy's official website. The article also mentioned two other large-scale drills in the South and East China seas in July and August, which were earlier reported. Meanwhile the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) also carried out a massive exercise with a number of aircraft flying over the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait on 25 Nov 16 in a West Pacific drill, according to an Air Force spokesman. The overflight involved "multiple types of warplanes," meeting the set target, spokesman Shen Jinke said while responding to media inquiries.

These exercises are becoming a regular phenomenon, with both the PLAN and the PLAAF undertaking a large number of them in the recent past. Modernisation of the Chinese Armed Forces has provided China with a potent instrument of state power to ensure safeguarding of its national interests with the 2015 White Paper on Defence providing the necessary guidance and direction for utilization of this instrument. China has also not shied away from employing its Armed Forces in support of its territorial claims, especially in the South China and the East China Seas. The frequency, complexity and scale of exercises by the PLAN and the PLAAF, especially over these seas, will therefore continue to rise as China tries to jostle with powers like Japan and the USA to assert itself in this region while trying to settle disputes with smaller nations in the neighbourhood.

JAPAN

Efforts to Thaw Japan-Russia Relations prior to Summit

The Japan-Russia summit to be held next month on December 15-16 in Nagato, Yamaguchi Prefecture and Tokyo is touted to be a pivotal moment for Japan-Russia Relations. One of the biggest failures of Japanese Foreign Policy has been its inability to negotiate a Peace Treaty with Russia and resolve the territorial dispute over four islands off eastern Hokkaido even after 7 decades. The Northern Territories (or Kuril Islands by Russia)—the four islands of Kunashiri, Etorofu, Habomai and Shikotan—were seized by Soviet forces at the end of World War II but are claimed by Japan. Abe has adamantly sought to engage Putin on this issue by meeting him around 14 times in his three years as Prime Minister. Abe’s most recent meeting with Putin was on November 19 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru.

In a media conference later, Putin indicated that Moscow will stand by 1956 Japan-Soviet Union joint declaration, which states that Shikotan and Habomai will be returned to Japan upon the conclusion of the peace treaty. But Etorofu and Kunashiri’s return still remains contentious. The islands are important for Russia both economically and militarily due to their abundance of natural resources and their strategic location. Russia deployed the Bastion missile system on Etorofu Island and the Bal system on Kunashiri Island in later half of 2016. Top Japanese government spokesman Yoshihide Suga following Putin’s statement, reiterated that Japan will resolve the issue of the return of the four islands first and then conclude the peace treaty. Japan rejected Russia’s proposal for joint economic projects on the Northern Territories as Japan's involvement in one would be tantamount to Tokyo recognizing Russia's sovereignty there.

However Japan has prepared an eight-point economic package featuring bilateral economic cooperation in areas such as tourism, medicine, energy, cutting-edge technologies and industrialization of the Russian Far East as leverage in pushing forward stalled territorial negotiations between the two countries. Japan's parliament also passed a bill on November 11 to allow state-run Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC) to participate in purchases/buying stakes in foreign oil and gas companies on its own. The bill has raised speculations that Japanese government will buy a stake in Russian state oil firm Rosneft, part of which has been put up for sale to cover up Russia’s growing debt. Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida will visit Russia on December 3 for talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to lay the groundwork for the Abe-Putin talks in mid-December.

Japan and APEC: A Call for Free Trade

The annual APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit was held from November 19-20 in Lima, Peru. In the statement issued at the close of the summit, leaders of 21 APEC countries reaffirmed their commitment under the theme of Quality Growth and Human Development to support free and open trade and investment, sustainable economic growth and shared prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. APEC leaders noted the "rising skepticism over trade" amid an uneven recovery since the financial crisis and said that "the benefits of trade and open markets need to be communicated to the wider public more effectively, emphasizing how trade promotes innovation, employment and higher living standards." They also reiterated the 2014 Beijing Roadmap for Realization of the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) to further deepen APEC's regional economic integration agenda.

Though US President Barack Obama has given up seeking ratification of the 12 nation TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), other countries such as Mexico, Peru, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore confirmed the economic and strategic importance of the agreement and restated their decision to continue with TPP even without US leadership. But Abe discounted the idea of going ahead without the Americans being a part of the deal. While US President-elect Trump has vowed to renounce TPP on first day in office, China under Xi Jinping has become the most vocal proponent and champion for free trade in the world. In a keynote address at APEC, Xi asserted that China will not shut its door to the outside world but open more and make sure the fruits of development are shared. Abe and Xi also met for a mini summit on the sidelines of APEC which is significant since diplomatic relations between Japan and China have been frozen since 2012. This was followed by a security dialogue in Beijing.

New Mandate for South Sudan Mission under Controversy

Under the National Security Legislation enacted in September last year (that came into force in March 2016), Japan dispatched the GSDF (Ground Self Defense Forces) engineering unit of the No. 9 division based in Aomori city for a UN peacekeeping operation (PKO) to South Sudan on November 20. For the first time, Japanese PKO forces have been given the mandate of "rush and rescue" missions wherein GSDF members will rush to rescue UN and NGO members and foreign military personnel who come under attack in South Sudan. Previously the use of weapons was limited to the self-defense of Japanese soldier. This new mandate has led the families of Aomori’s GSDF unit to express serious concern over the new mission where members could engage in combat or even get killed. Many citizens' organizations have held protests and rallies to oppose the move and started signature-collecting campaigns.

Abe government has however emphasized that the five conditions for Japan participating in UN PKO are being met on the grounds that South Sudan has agreed to GSDF activities in the country and that no armed conflict has broken out there. As per media reports, to calm fears on casualties or injuries as the result of a rush-and-rescue operation, a senior defense military official has said that no rush-and-rescue operation would be carried out without a direct go-ahead from PM Abe himself. Abe administration -- under its policy of "proactive pacifism" – has sought to expand Japan’s military role by legalizing its right to collective self-defense on situations that could threaten Japan's peace and security even when Japan is not under direct military attack. Increasing Japan’s contribution to UN PKO is also seen as imminent to convey Japan’s aspirations of becoming a permanent member of its Security Council.

CHINA & TAIWAN

CHINA-LATAM Community of Common Destiny

Chinese President Xi Jinping undertook state visits to Ecuador, Peru and Chile during the latter half of Nov 2016. During this week-long trip, China's relationship with Ecuador and Chile were lifted to a comprehensive strategic partnership while the scope of the China-Peru comprehensive strategic partnership was further enhanced. Although there is no clear definition of what really is a "comprehensive strategic partnership," it is believed to be among one of the higher levels in China's diplomatic intimacy with other countries.

Relations between Ecuador and China have been steadily growing closer since the last few years. In 2015, both countries agreed to elevate the bilateral ties to the level of strategic partnership and recently have upgraded it again. This is clearly evident from trade and investment between the two. China has become Ecuador's third largest trading partner, with two-way trade reaching $ 4.1 billion in 2015, quadrupling in just 10 years. Ecuador is also a major destination for Chinese investment and financing in Latin America. Chinese investment and financing in Ecuador has exceeded $ 10 billion supporting hundreds of projects including major infrastructure projects such as the Coca Codo Sinclair hydropower plant, seven other hydropower plants and a dozen of highways.

When it comes to China-Chile relations, the two countries signed their FTA in 2005 and have now decided to upgrade their free trade agreement (FTA) at the earliest. Bilateral trade volume has grown four-fold since the FTA went into effect. China is now Chile's largest trading partner, its largest export destination and the largest buyer of its copper products. According to statistics released by China Customs, bilateral trade between both the countries reached $31.88 billion in 2015 and Chile became China’s third largest trading partner in Latin America.

In fact China has been pursuing an enhanced relationship with the entire Latin American and Caribbean community with their proposal of a “CHINA-LATAM community of common destiny”. Towards this end in 2014, a forum between China and Latin America was established to steer the overall cooperation between China and the region. The first ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum was then held in Beijing in January 2015, marking the start of a new era that features all-round cooperation between the two sides.

Results of such a holistic approach have been encouraging as in 2015 trade volume between China and Latin America reached $ 236.5 billion up more than 20-fold during the past decade.

CHINA: Becoming the Leading Advocate of Liberalised Trade

At the recent APEC summit in Lima, President Xi pitched for the building of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) by calling it a strategic initiative which was critical for the long-term prosperity of the Asia-Pacific. Xi's proposal for a FTAAP was echoed by other APEC leaders, as they reaffirmed their commitment towards building a FTAAP based upon ongoing regional undertakings, and through possible pathways including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The declaration after the Economic Leaders' Meeting gave a sense of the same as it read "We reiterate our commitment to the eventual realization of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific as a major instrument to further deepen APEC's regional economic integration agenda".

The FTAAP process was launched at the 2014 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Beijing. According to the Xinhua the FTAAP once established can unleash much greater economic vigor than other regional trade arrangements and add an estimated $ 2.4 trillion of output to the global economy. China has been seeking a larger regional and global role for itself though its proposals of the “CHINA-LATAM community of common destiny” and “Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)”. It is now becoming evident that Chinese global footprints are getting more and more pronounced. In the likelihood of the US following an “America First” strategy these would have to be monitored.

Decoding the Seizure of Singapore’s Military Vehicles

Singapore seems to be scurrying to gain the recovery of nine armoured troop carriers that have been impounded in Hong Kong for a week after being used in a military training exercise in Taiwan, a move which highlights China’s growing tensions with Singapore and Beijing’s desire to further isolate the Taiwanese government of Tsai Ing-wen. Singapore's Ministry of Defence said the shipment of Terrex infantry carriers had been delayed on November 23 during a routine inspection by Hong Kong Customs. Local media reports have suggested the seizure was at Beijing's request. This seems to have generated a rather unusual response directed towards Singapore from the Chinese establishment. "China opposes any country with which it has established diplomatic ties from conducting any official exchanges, including military, and cooperation with Taiwan. We urge the Singapore government to keep its promise to the One China principle," Geng Shuang, a spokesman for Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Monday.

On its part, maintaining a cautious position, Singapore's Defense Ministry said the vehicles were used "in routine overseas training and shipped back via commercial means as with previous exercises" and no ammunition was on board. "Our training overseas has never been secret. People know where we train, openly," Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said Tuesday. He added that Singapore had played a positive role in improving cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan.

Singapore has long-standing defense ties with Taiwan owing to its domestic demographic and geographical constraints which force it to look overseas to conduct large-scale military training and exercises. Military ties between the two sides were formalized in the mid-1970s, when Singapore started its training programme in Taiwan, dubbed Project Starlight, and invoked the experience of a significant number of senior Taiwanese officers to lead its armed forces, which then were at relatively nascent stages of operational expertise.

Despite efforts by both sides to maintain a carefully calibrated stance, anecdotally, relations between China and Singapore seem to be on a downward spiral in recent times owing to Beijing’s escalating attempts at maintaining its territorial assertiveness in the South China Sea. Singapore’s PM had expressed the city-state’s support for the International Court of Justice’s ruling, which has been rejected by China.

It appears that this incident is a signal by China to convey its sensitivities to a wider neighbourhood in general and Singapore in particular. Nations which fail to fall in line with China’s strategic interests may be at the receiving end of arm-twisting measures – economic boycotts or seizures- setting thus a dangerous, awakening and telling precedent.