Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, EU and Eurasia (Vol 1 Issue VII)

(September 16-30, 2016)

US Elections

The first presidential debate for the 2016 election took place on September 26 2016 and is largely viewed as having gone in favour of Hillary Clinton. Public opinion surveys have been remarkably consistent and only 38% of the American voters think that Donald Trump is qualified to lead America. The public trends have also shown that neither candidate is trusted – and Hillary Clinton even less than Donald Trump, though marginally so. On the other hand, large majorities believe that Mrs. Clinton has the knowledge and experience a president needs and that Mr. Trump does not. A majority also express confidence in her ability to handle international crises, and doubts about his ability to do so. About six in ten Americans believe that she is qualified to be president; only four in ten believe that he is.

If the election revolved solely around the candidates’ personal qualities and capabilities, Mrs. Clinton would win by a handsome margin but this is not the case. It is still a close fight and while a lot of the undecided voters seem to be going in favour of Hillary Clinton, public opinion has not yet crystallized totally in her favour. The fight is getting more bitter and vitriolic with both sides trading charges that are often unsavoury. Newt Gingrich, former Republican Speaker of the House has come out openly in favour of Trump and claims that he won the first debate by any objective yardstick. He said, “After all my years in public life I am sickened by the intellectual dishonesty, arrogance, and smugness”, of the so-called power elites led by Lester Holt and his one sided questions and interventions. He goes on to call the Holt-Clinton team “glib, articulate, and self-congratulatory,” while the real winner was Donald Trump because in a “blunt, clear style, he is saying things most Americans believe.”

US-Russia Syria Peace Deal Falters

American military officials broke off talks with their Russian counterparts after the collapse of a tenuous cease-fire deal brokered between the two countries, according to US command spokesman Col. John Thomas. “We are not anticipating any great progress anytime soon”, he told reporters at the Pentagon Tuesday. Col Thomas also said that military representatives of Russia and the US had agreed to a location for a proposed joint command center to coordinate American and Russian air operations in the country, and were slated to begin face-to-face talks on other aspects of the deal. But those talks have been derailed after a United Nations convoy carrying food and medial equipment into the besieged Syrian city of Aleppo was hit by an airstrike. The strike officially brought to an end the peace pact brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Moscow and Damascus have each denied they carried out the attack on the convoy, which has been characterized as a war crime by human rights advocates.

Negotiations between Washington and Moscow on potential cooperation in the future also show little hope of resuming. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said that Washington perhaps needs to consider putting more economic pressure on Russia in an attempt to reach an agreement with it on Syria. Toner accused Russia of making a difficult situation "more confused," by increasing military action in Syria. He said Moscow was driving militant groups closer to Daesh terrorists. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, accused Washington of protecting the Takfiri Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group, formerly known as al-Nusra Front.

EU and BREXIT Talks

The 27 EU members have forged a common response to the forthcoming Brexit talks with Great Britain. They have adopted a tough line – refusing ‘pre-negotiations’ and insisting that Britain cannot have access to the single market without allowing reciprocal free movement to EU.

EU is of the impression that the Article 50 exit procedure was designed to put the country leaving the EU at a disadvantage and that the two years prescribed by Article 50 to complete Brexit negotiations will weaken the British hand. The clock will be ticking when Britain seeks to complete not only the exit talks, but also an interim agreement covering the period between when it leaves the union and the entry into force (probably many years later) of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the UK and the EU. The UK will also have just two years to become a normal member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and to negotiate bilateral deals with the 53 countries with which the EU has FTAs, which will cease to apply to Britain on the day of Brexit. EU also feels that if these talks break down or Britain leaves the EU without having completed these agreements, the British economy would take a very big hit.

On the other hand, British Prime Minister, Theresa May is optimistic about Britain’s prospects after Brexit. Mrs May said that after Brexit the UK will be “a fully-independent, sovereign country” that will no longer be in the “jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice”, suggesting that Britain is preparing to leave the single market. Addressing British MPs, she said: “Brexit should not just prompt us to think about our new relationship with the European Union… It should make us think about our role in the wider world. It should make us think of Global Britain, a country with the self-confidence and the freedom to look beyond the continent of Europe and to the economic and diplomatic opportunities of the wider world. Because we know that the referendum was not a vote to turn in ourselves, to cut ourselves off from the world. It was a vote for Britain to stand tall, to believe in ourselves, to forge an ambitious and optimistic new role in the world.”

Central Asian Republics

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan-U.S. Strategic Partnership Dialogue

According to a statement released by the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 26th, the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Erlan Idrissov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met on September 20th, in New York City, on the sidelines of the 71st United Nations General Assembly, to launch the Fifth meeting of the U.S.-Kazakhstan Strategic Partnership Dialogue. On the eve of the 25th anniversary celebrations of Kazakhstan’s independence and the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, the two sides agreed that "the strategic partnership between the two countries has never been stronger." This meeting was particularly significant for Kazakhstan, which, recently, has been elected as the first Central Asian country to be a member of the United Nations Security Council. The joint statement reiterated the need for both countries to work closely in advancing shared priorities.

Additionally, according to the statement, the United States welcomed Kazakhstan’s leadership in supporting security and development in Afghanistan and in advancing regional economic integration in Central Asia, including through engagement in the C5+1 (five Central Asian countries plus the United States) format. Both countries also reaffirmed their commitment to preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction and pledged to deepen their cooperation in countering the threats of terrorism and violent extremism.

Furthermore, in tune with the broad sentiment of this year’s UNGA agenda, Kazakhstan and the United States reiterated their commitment to combating climate change, and the United States welcomed Kazakhstan’s determination to ratify Paris Climate Agreement by the end of this year. The statement emphasized upon the importance of ensuring energy security in the region and globally, and the United States welcomed the Astana EXPO to be held in 2017, primarily focusing on the theme of green energy.

Delegations headed by Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan Yerzhan Ashikbayev and Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Biswal also reviewed Kazakhstan-U.S. cooperation and challenges in international and regional affairs, security, economics, environment, human rights and other issues of mutual interest. Ashikbayev also met separately with Assistant Secretary for International Organisation Affairs Bathsheba Crocker, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labour Tom Malinowski, Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom David Saperstein, Special Representative to Muslim Communities Shaarik Zafar, and Special Envoy to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Arsalan Suleman and discussed ways to advance bilateral agenda and opportunities for cooperation across the range of bilateral, regional and global issues.

The two country representatives agreed to hold a full interagency Strategic Partnership Dialogue in 2017 and continue high-level engagement in other areas.

Central Asian Republics at the United Nations General Assembly Plenary Debate 2016

The 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) met at the UN headquarters in New York City from the 20th-26th of September 2016. For those tracking the developments in the Central Asian republics, the preceding few months had been packed with a series of significant events, and the interventions made by the representatives of the republics were therefore significant.

Kazakhstan

Erlan Idrissov, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, began his address by raising concerns faced by the United Nations, including issues of migration and a global economic slowdown that affected all nations and could lead to the weakening of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a round of damaging protectionism. He cited a lack of trust between major nations and regional groups which prevented completion of nuclear disarmament, asserting that, as a country which 25 years ago had closed the largest nuclear test site on its soil and renounced the world’s fourth largest nuclear arsenal, Kazakhstan had the full moral right to pursue disarmament. A mention of nuclear disarmament by the representative of Kazakhstan was largely expected since the country claims credit for initiating the General Assembly resolution on a nuclear weapons-free world that was adopted in 2015, and significantly, 2016 marks the tenth anniversary of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. Kazakhstan’s representative referred to the stalemate in international negotiations on nuclear disarmament owing to the numerous loopholes in international law, which were exploited to use nuclear technology for military purposes and reiterated his country’s stand for a complete ban on nuclear tests. A strong reference was made to the irresponsible acts of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which undermined security around the world.

Idrissov stressed that the existence of military blocs could create situations where the security of some countries were secured at the expense of others and conveyed his country’s position on the imposition of sanctions as counterproductive, creating new division lines that alienated nations. He emphasized the need to create an atmosphere of genuine security based on dialogue. In his closing comments he took on the perception of critics who, quoting from the statement, had “doubted Kazakhstan’s ability to survive as a sovereign nation”. However, according to the Minister, Kazakhstan had turned into a stable middle-income country and a respected member of the international community, and it took its election to the Security Council for 2017-2018 “with utmost seriousness and pride.”

Turkmenistan

Rashid Meredov, Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, on behalf of his country, called for a closer and more coordinated interaction of governments and major international organizations to ensure international peace and security given the current state of global realities and the nature and direction of political, economic and social processes. His statement lamented the worldwide expansions of areas of conflict, and at times, brazen disregard for international law and therefore reiterated his government’s position on the need for all nations to seek conflict de-escalation based on the rules of international law under the auspices of the United Nations as the universal mechanism for overcoming existing differences. Significantly, Turkmenistan called for a special meeting of the General Assembly devoted to the strengthening of international law as the basis for the maintenance of global peace and security.

Turkmenistan position on ‘neutrality’ is well established. Minister Meredov mentioned to the Assembly his country’s efforts in sustaining this stand through the High-Level International Conference dedicated to the twentieth anniversary of Turkmenistan’s status of neutrality, which was held in Ashgabat in December 2015, following which Turkmenistan had proposed an International Day of Neutrality and prepared a corresponding draft resolution of the General Assembly.

On terrorism, the Minister categorically stated his country’s position on the need to fight this menace which “fell outside the notions of human morality and threatened to undermine the entire system of world order”, at the global, regional, and national levels. It was important to coordinate efforts to implement the United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in Central Asia, where work had recently been intensified. He emphasized that important documents on that area – the Ashgabat Declaration and action plans on countering terrorism in Central Asia – served as a road map.

On the Sustainable Development Goals, which had been adopted one year ago by the General Assembly, he affirmed that Turkmenistan had adopted at the legislative level the National Climate Change Strategy and would sign the Paris Agreement. In his closing comments, he emphasized the criticality of ‘water’ as a regional issue and that Turkmenistan would assume this year the chairmanship of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s statement was significant this year given the event of the passing of the First President of Independent Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov. Abdulaziz Kamilov, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, began his statement by recounting the advances made by his country under the leadership of President Karimov in the spheres of environmental conservation, nuclear disarmament and in the struggle against international terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking. He termed Uzbekistan under Karimov as a “modern and dynamically developing state” with steady growth rates and a heartening progress on socio-economic indicators.

The Minister’s speech focused on four broad areas of concern. In the first, and most significant segment he indicated the intention of his country’s government under the leadership of the interim president Shavkat Mirziyoev (who is also estimated to continue as the long-term president following the upcoming elections) to “preserve the continuity and consistency in its foreign policy aimed at the protection and advancement of the country’s fundamental interests.” The statement unambiguously stated Uzbekistan’s choice to not join “any military-political blocs and alliances, not to allow for stationing of foreign military bases on its territory and not to send our servicemen beyond frontiers of the country.” This is being perceived as a clear refusal by Uzbekistan to the possibility of joining the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

In the second segment, turning to regional security, the minister said that Afghanistan remained a key problem for international and regional stability. Internal dynamics of the Afghan conflict were flaring up rather than fading and also becoming more complicated. Settling the conflict was possible only with an intra-Afghan national accord and through peaceful political negotiations among major parties under the auspices of the United Nations. He reiterated that peace in Afghanistan would bring a colossal and tangible benefit to all countries of the Eurasian continent. It would stimulate the construction of motorways and railroad, development of regional and trans-regional commerce and laying of pipelines in all directions.

The third segment of Minister Kamilov’s address focused on the need for protecting ecology and preserving the environment, which in 2015 had taken on an even greater significance through the Sustainable Development Goals, especially in tackling changes of nature. He quoted the Aral Sea tragedy as a vivid example. With its ecologic-climatic, socio-economic and humanitarian consequences, the tragedy was a direct threat to the sustainable development of the region, health, gene pool and future of the people residing in the area. The consequences of that tragedy included an unfavourable ecological state, drying up of the Aral Sea and ongoing humanitarian catastrophe around it, lack and declining quality of potable water and growth of dangerous diseases.

In his closing comments, the Minister spoke in the favour of an institutional, step-wise reform of the United Nations to enhance its efficiency and salience in the international community.

Tajikistan

Sirodjidin Aslov, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan, began his address by highlighting that while the global community had recently made headway in the area of development, it had been less successful in addressing issues of peace and security and particularly combating international terrorism and violent extremism had to be assumed as a top priority. Therefore, there was a need to develop national, regional and international mechanisms aimed at eliminating military infrastructures, financing channels, logistical support, recruiting and propaganda of violence, as well as the use of modern information and communications technology (ICT) for purposes of terror. The Minister also flagged the prevention of illicit drug trafficking, which had turned into a breeding ground for terrorism and organized crime, as a challenge which required concerted joint action.

Conveying Tajikistan’s position of the matter, Minister Aslov stated that his country’s government stood for a comprehensive settlement of the crises in the Middle East, which would help to enhance global security. He also expressed support for the international strategy for a comprehensive settlement and post-conflict reconstruction in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The minister’s statement heralded the setting of the 2030 Agenda as the beginning of a process of transformation. While noting the obvious challenges which presented a complex state of affairs to take on, he emphasized upon the need to calibrate a response which streamlined required regional cooperation and political will, reinforced by adequate means of implementation. His speech noted the unique challenge that countries in special situations — including least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing States — would face while implementing the 2030 Agenda under less favourable conditions and therefore required special support. Similar to the statements made by his regional counterparts, the Minister underlined the importance of water in the 2030 Agenda, while emphasizing that that climate change, urbanization and population growth would exacerbate water-related challenges. In that regard, countries must work together on a “new water agenda”, particularly in cases of waters shared among various sectors, such as health, agriculture, energy and navigation.

Kyrgyzstan

Erlan Abdyldayev, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, began his statement on a celebratory note given the successful conclusion of his country’s October 2015 parliamentary elections, and thanked the Secretary-General for his support during that process. In a welcome gesture, he also called upon the United Nations and partner organizations to support the country’s upcoming elections in 2017. His statement expressed support for the Sustainable Development Goals, which included a number of agendas his country had prioritized, including “poverty reduction, high-quality education, health care, economic growth and environmental protection.” On that note, he announced his country’s decision to sign the Paris Climate Agreement. In his address, he particularly raised concerns regarding the rapid rate of glacial melting, shrinking biodiversity and uranium mining sites, which despite having been addressed under General Assembly resolution 68/218, now required a high-level international meeting.

Regarding the issues of security and stability, he expressed concern about tensions in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Ukraine, and emphasized the nature of terrorism, extremism and religious intolerance as shared challenges which afflicted his country like many others. His statement acknowledged the “confrontational position of some countries” which was hindering the international community’s ability to tackle those threats, and therefore called for major powers to set aside their disputes and undertake joint efforts to counter threats to international security. Notably, given the Central Asian Republics’ stand on matters relating to religion, he called for a General Assembly resolution on inter-religious dialogue and cooperation for peace.

On the regional agenda, his statement called for Central Asia to reach a common understanding on the rational use of energy resources and an expeditious resolution of border disputes. His speech also included a call for the need to consider reform of the Security Council, and welcomed recent procedural changes in the election of the Secretary-General.

In his closing remarks, the minister expressed concern about the involvement of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in the case of Azimjan Askarov, who had been convicted by the Kyrgyz Supreme Court for such interventions were liable to destabilize his country, in the opinion of the Minister.

Contact Us