Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, EU and Eurasia (Vol 1 Issue II)

(July 1-15, 2016)

USA

Donald Trump has secured the Republican nomination for US president on day two (July 19) of the Republican National Convention. The House Speaker, Paul Ryan, urged delegates to unite behind Trump, a day after splits in the party were evident as the convention opened. His son Donald Trump, Jr formally proposed his father’s name. He said, “It is my honour to throw Donald Trump over the top with 89 delegates,” and then went on to add “Congratulations, Dad, we love you.”

The official confirmation of the 2016 nominee was in little doubt despite a last-minute procedural rebellion that was quickly killed off on day one of the convention. But the ceremonial “call of the roll of states” served as a powerful reminder of the scale of his victory over 16 competing candidates with the largest-ever vote haul in a Republican primary.

Once the formality of Trump’s nomination was done, Tuesday's (July 19) speakers focused almost exclusively on attacking Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a former prosecutor, held a mock trial for Hillary Clinton as the crowds chanted “lock her up." Christie and others criticised Hillary Clinton's use of a private email account while she was serving as secretary of state.

While an FBI investigation had acquitted her, saying she was "extremely careless" but found her actions didn't warrant criminal prosecution, however, Christie and the crowd disagreed as Christie repeatedly yelled "guilty". He said she has "selfish, awful judgement" and was to blame for various foreign policy problems in Libya, Syria and elsewhere.

Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, who was booed by fellow Republicans when he bragged about ignoring the Constitution in a bid to stall some of president Obama’s initiatives, nonetheless launched an attack on Clinton, who he said would “say anything, do anything, and be anything to get elected president”. He added: “If Hillary is president, we will continue to slide, distracted by the scandals that follow the Clintons like flies.”

In his three-minute address, Trump talked about his big convention speech that he would deliver on 21 July before the end of the Republican convention, and went through a list of policies such as strengthening the border, “getting rid” of ISIS, and “restoring law and order”. He said, “I’ll be discussing all that on Thursday night…. But together, most importantly, we’re going to make America great again.”

Russia

After years of languishing behind competitors at home and abroad, Russia's iconic MiG aircraft manufacturer has been thrown a lifeline. The company is now reportedly building 46 brand-new MiG-29M fighter jets in a contract reported to be worth at least $2 billion dollars. The jets are being built for an unspecified buyer. Only a shareholder’s report released by a MiG component supplier has confirmed that the order is real. The document outlines a deal for 92 engines used in the MiG-29. With two engines in each fighter, the contract corresponds with reports of a 46-fighter contract in the works.

“Russia has not formally announced the deal because of previous delays on contracts. When you announce a deal and something goes wrong, the damage to your image as a reliable procurer is enormous,” says Yury Barmin, an expert on Russian foreign affairs.

The leading candidate for the 46 MiGs could be Egypt. Ambiguous statements from Russian defense industry officials at trade shows and press conferences over the past year largely fuel such speculation. The official line is that the MiGs are going to North Africa, and that the exact customer cannot yet be named. Russia's Vedomosti newspaper in May last year reported that the jets were going to Egypt as part of a $3.5 billion arms deal signed by President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi in April 2015.

But apparently Egypt is not the only candidate. Russia has also been courting Iran, which flies a vintage air force made up of 1970s American and Soviet aircraft. The Iranians would make a good customer for 46 of the latest MiGs. Yet under the Iran nuclear deal, offensive weapons deals with the UN Security Council can veto Tehran for the next five years – something that could complicate a Russian-Iranian MiG deal.

USA and Russia:

The United States on July 14 offered Russia a broad new military partnership in Syria, in the hope that attraction of a unified campaign against the Islamic State group and al-Qaida — and a Russian commitment to ground Syria's bombers — could end five years of civil war. If finalized, the deal could dramatically alter America's role in the conflict.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin to present him the new ideas. The eight-page proposal, which The Washington Post published on its website, shows the U.S. offering intelligence and target sharing, and even joint bombing operations. It is a pact Moscow long had wanted, but the Obama administration resisted.

"Hopefully we'll be able to make some genuine progress that is measurable and implementable and that can make a difference in the course of events in Syria," Kerry said. Putin said he was looking for "tangible results." The proposal would undercut months of U.S. criticism of Russia's military actions in Syria, and put the United States alongside Syrian President Bashar Assad's chief international backer, despite years of American demands for him to leave power.

Russia would get what it has wanted since intervening in Syria on Assad's behalf last September: leadership of an international anti-terrorism alliance.

But much of Washington is wary about working too closely with Russia. A dissent cable signed by 51 State Department officials in June showed a sizable part of America's diplomatic establishment believing a U.S. military response against Assad's forces was necessary. Opposition to this latest Syria plan is shared by a significant number of officials at the State Department and the Pentagon and among U.S. intelligence agencies, according to several American officials.

EU and UK

On a visit to Germany, newly elected British PM Theresa May has said the UK will not begin official negotiations on leaving the EU this year as she held talks with Germany's Angela Merkel. Speaking in Berlin, the UK PM said securing a "sensible and orderly departure" from the EU would take time.

But she insisted the UK would not "walk away" from Europe and wanted to retain the "closest economic links". Angela Merkel said the two sides desired to get the "best result for Britain" but urged more clarity on timing. Merkel said: “It is completely understandable that only a few days after the referendum the Government will have to take a moment first to try to seek to identify its interests and also have to talk about the other parts of Great Britain.

“It is to our advantage to have the UK to define its negotiating stance in great detail and clarity and to also clearly outline how it sees its future relationship with the EU – these have to be parallel processes.” “You can’t completely cut off the bonds of and after a long winding negotiating process come up with how one sees the future relationship.”

Central ASIAN Republics

Tajikistan Opens Free Trade Zone On Border With China

The Director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Tajikistan, Khudoberdi Kholiqnazar acknowledged the opening of a Free Trade Zone on Tajikistan’s border with China on the 11th of July. He added that the FTZ will begin operations on both sides of the Kulma border-crossing checkpoint in the near future and that, currently, working groups of Tajikistan and China are actively engaged with the subject. Chinese have already built a massive terminal on their side of the Kulma checkpoint, and a similar terminal also be constructed within the Tajik territory in the Murgab district of the Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). Noting the benefits of this arrangement Kholiqnazar stated, “With creation of the FTZ, Tajik entrepreneurs will not need to travel to the Chinese cities of Kashgar and Urumqi for goods. They will be able to purchase all necessary goods at the terminal”.

The Kulma border-crossing checkpoint is the only overland border crossing along the 450-kilometer boundary between the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. Opened in 2004, the Tajik-China trade route runs from Khorog, in southeastern Tajikistan, over a high-altitude plateau and then down into China, where it ends in the city of Kashgar, seven hundred kilometers away. Tajikistan and China had reached an agreement on a year-round operation of the Kulma checkpoint on December 29, 2011 but it became possible only in the following year, upon the creation of all necessary conditions, to ensure uninterrupted operation of the Kulma border crossing.

The Kulma Pass is a mountain pass across the Pamir Mountains that pass opens from the north to the southeast. On the Tajik side, the pass is 80 km by road to Murgab. On the Chinese side, the pass is 13.9 km from Karasu, a port of entry on the Karakorum Highway which leads to Tashkurgan (60–70 km) and Kashgar (220 km).

German Chancellor Visits Kyrgyzstan

Germany’s Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Bishkek on the 13th of July as part of a tour of the region which also included Mongolia as the end destination to join a summit of Eurasian heads of government (including Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev and China’s Li Ke-qiang.

During her official interactions, Chancellor Merkel expressed satisfaction over bilateral relations between Kyrgyzstan and Germany developing steadily. She however emphasized need for a more dynamic development of economic cooperation. Chancellor said that Germany will certainly support the development of small and medium-sized businesses in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz President, Almazbek Atambayev, reciprocated the gesture by affirming that it is necessary to step up cooperation between EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, an initiative his country would be willing to lead. The President also expressed interest in a partnership agreement with the European Union. The German Chancellor maintained that while negotiating a comprehensive agreement with Brussels would be a complex task, she would be willing to support the country “in getting closer to the European Union”.

Largely, however, the meeting was excessively high on rhetoric with no significant policy takeaways. The two leaders agreed on the ‘need to increase the role of women in society’, to ‘combat extremism’ and work towards limiting the ‘trade and consumption of narcotics’. There were mentions of enhancing cooperation between Germany and Kyrgyzstan in the domains of trade and education.

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