Valedictory Address by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director, The Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi

Lt Gen Rajesh Kocchar, Dr. Pankaj Jha, Lt Col Rajat Mathur, Officers of the Central Tibetan Administration.

I would like to thank Dr. Pankaj Jha for inviting me to the Valedictory Session of this course. It is my pleasure to meet the officers of the Central Tibetan Administration who are participating in this course. I congratulate Dr. Jha and his colleague at the Jindal Global University for organizing such a comprehensive course which has covered a variety of subjects raising from international security environment to the various aspects of China’s foreign policy and Sino-Indian relations. There is little I can add to what you have already learned.

Any course on foreign policy must necessarily take into account the nature of the globalized world and its impact on the established notions of international order. In a world integrated by transportation, finances, and technology, the notion of sovereignty is becoming weaker. The power of non-state actors is growing. Globalization also implies that the military power is not the only component of power. For instance, in the matrix of power relations, the salience of ‘data’ is growing rapidly. The physical world of manufacturing is merging with the data-driven cyber technologies. The 3-D printing revolution is backed by advances in data technologies. The world of Artificial Intelligence will be a different world altogether. The danger of machines overtaking the humans have been talked about in science fiction but may become a reality in not too distant a future.

The world’s biggest companies are data companies who do not own physical assets. They are immensely powerful today. Individual data is held not by the government so much as by the global giant like Facebook, Google, and others. E-commerce companies like Walmart, Alibaba, Amazon own data on global scales. As we have seen in the case of Cambridge Analytica, personal data can be misused for political purposes. The dominance of data in today’s world is a manifestation of the salience of soft power. The ‘image’ is equally important. What matters is how you are able to attract attention. Possessing material power is not enough. Soft power earns legitimacy which is equally important. We have seen how China goes out of its way to inculcate a positive image of itself through confusion centers, global summits, and outreach programmes.

The world is changing rapidly. There is a lot of anxiety on account of the acceleration of change. That is why spirituality continues to attract people all over the world. India and Tibet evoke spirituality which provides comfort to the troubled souls. On soft power index, Tibet and India do very well.

Tibet resonates deeply in the Indian psyche. Many factors account for their Ancient cultural, civilizational and religious connect between our two people is a major factor. History tells us that King Rapti and his followers, who were allied to the Kaurawa, went to Tibet after the Kaurwas were defeated by the Pandawas in the Mahabharata war. Buddhism went to Tibet from India in the 8th century. Thus our links are ancient and deep. An ordinary Indian has deep respect for the His Holiness the Dalai Lama, who is respected like a rishi and a saint. The holy Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar, whom the Hindus revere, is located in Tibet. Indian pilgrims visit the Lake Mansarovar and Mount Kailash every year. The Dalai Lama and several thousand refugees who fled to India in 1959 escaping oppression have been living in India peacefully since then. But, we must recognize that India and Tibet are both changing. The Tibetans have affected a separation between the spiritual and temporal power. This has been a major development in recent years. Likewise, Sino-Indian relations are also undergoing change.

Following the Informal Summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi in Wuhan a few days ago, Sino-Indian relations are entering a new phase. The unexpected Doklam standoff between the militaries of two sides in 2017 shook the core of Sino-Indian relationship which had been built painstakingly since the mid-90s. There was a danger that the ties could further deteriorate if timely measures were not taken to arrest the slide. Wuhan informal summit was an attempt to create a conducive atmosphere for a future relationship. Whether Sino-Indian ties will improve from here on is still a matter of conjecture but both leaders have expressed their commitment to bridging the trust gap in bilateral ties.

One cannot ignore the fact that Sino-Indian relations have a baggage of the past. The Chinese take over of Tibet in 1950 fundamentally altered the Sino-Indian equation. India and Tibet were neighbours for centuries. All that changed when China became India’s neighbor. A huge boundary dispute between India and China was born. The longstanding structural issues in bilateral ties cannot be wished away. The boundary question is unsettled and there does not seem to be any hope of an early settlement. Underlying the boundary issue is the Tibet question. The Chinese approach to the Tibet in last few decades has been that of strengthening the party control, settling the Han population in Tibet, making an investment in civilians and military infrastructure and weaning the population away from the Dalai Lama. The Chinese have insisted that India recognize Tibet as an integral part of China.

The Indian approach to Tibet has been a subject of much debate. Many of analysts hold the view that India failed to stand up to China when the later occupied Tibet in 1950-51. India objected but did nothing. For instance, a former foreign secretary listed many acts of omission and commission on part of India. He pointed out that India has in the past been taken in by the rhetoric of civilizational bond between Indian and China while taking its eyes off the ground situation. India believed in the assurances given by the Chinese on Tibet in the fifties. India failed to demand reciprocity from the Chinese in return for acceptance of “one China” policy. India did not protest when 17- Point Agreement was forced on the Dalai Lama. In 1954, India signed an agreement surrendering it rights and responsibility in Tibet. In various joint statements, India recognized Tibet Autonomous Region as part of China. The subsequent governments have continued with this policy. Today, Sino-Indian relations have a dynamic of their own.

India’s security interests are closely intertwined with a peaceful settlement of the Tibetan question. That is why India will remain deeply interested in the nature of settlement between China and the Tibetan people including the Dalai Lama it ever takes place. What is the attitude of the Tibetans towards China? This is a matter of great interest for India. The fact that more than a hundred Tibetans have self-immolated in the last few years and Tibetans continue to flee Tibet to this day points to continuing difficult situation in Tibet. With such unsettled condition in Tibet, it is difficult to see the prospects of an early settlement. There are of course many other issues which are relevant to the Tibet question. One of the most important issues is the incarnation of the future Dalai Lama and what impact it will have on the Tibetan community as many Tibetan live in India. India cannot be oblivious to the future possibility.

Sino-Indian relations are affected by many other factors. China has been rapidly building military infrastructure in Tibet. The numerous roads, airfields, and other military infrastructure have a direct bearing on India’s security. Water is an important issue in Sino-Indian relations. Tibet is the water tower of South Asia and South East Asia. The Indus, Sutlej, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong and many other rivers originate in Tibet. China is water stressed; there is the concern over the diversion of the waters of Yarlung Tsangpo. There is an apprehension in India that the feverish dam building which goes on Indus and the Yarlung Tsangpo will reduce water in Brahamputra. While India and China have taken some steps to have a cooperation in hydrological fields, the cooperation is minimal and episodic. Climate change is having a perceptible impact on Tibetan plateau and Himalayan climate and geology. Greater cooperation between India and China will be useful.

Today, China is a powerful country with a mind of its own. The consolidation of its presence and power in the South China Sea in disregard of the opinion of the International Court of Justice is a recent example. China is the world’s second-largest military with $180 billion defence expenditure and the top trading nation. Through the vehicle of One Belt One Road (OBOR), it is enhancing its presence across the globe. At the same time, we should also the mindful of the fact that the Chinese economy is slowing down and the Chinese leaders have expressed deep concern about corruption within the party and the military. President Xi, now President for life, has undertaken a sustained and strong anti-corruption drive which could have repercussions within the internal political system in the years to come. So, China is not static. Those dealing with China will need to take a long-term view of the development.

Long-standing and the strong spiritual connection between the Indians and Tibetans cannot be swept away by the exigencies of the geopolitics. Indian civilization and the Tibetan culture are inseparable from each other. Indian and Tibetan people must continue to respect each other. The welfare and wellbeing of Tibet are critical for India’s own national security. While India wants a healthy relationship with China, this cannot be at the expense of Tibetan interests.