Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director VIF
That world order is changing is visible to everyone. We are living in the transition phase in which older institutions and older rules are still applicable but many are dissatisfied with them. A challenger has arisen on the horizon who has benefitted from the established order but wants this order to be modified. The age of multipolarity has arrived but the rules of multipolar world are not clear neither is the final shape of the new order apparent.
Whether the phase of transition will be peaceful is not clear. How long will the transition last is not clear. But, the trends are that there will be multiple political, economic and social changes at a fast pace. Some of these could lead to upheavals. The power transition theory in inter-relations discipline, based on the studies of past trends, indicates that during a transition conflicts might occur. But conflicts can also be avoided if the emerging power is accommodated suitably. The European experience of last few hundred years shows how common the wars have been. There is a lot to learn from the rise and fall of civilizations and states. During the period of Change, the hidden fault lines begin to reappear. History begins to reassert itself in new forms and patterns. The changes in world order are not uncommon. Indeed history is full of them. The battle of Kurukshetra, described in Mahabharata, rearranged the power equation in the Indian subcontinent. The Peloponnesian Wars (5th Century BC), the fall of Roman Empire (5th Century CE), the conquest of Istanbul (15th Century CE) and the Mughal invasions (16th Century CE), are some important milestones in the history of world order.
The Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 brought into existence the system of nation-state which holds to this day. The Congress of Vienna in 1815 heralded a new order in Europe after the French Revolution in 1789 and the Napoleonic Wars, which brought chaos to Europe. Bismarck crafted a delicate balance of power (1871-1914) which broke down in 1914 with the onset of First World War. First World War ended in 1919 but the cold peace that it ushered in ended with the onset of Second World War in 1939. The end of the Second World War in 1945 immediately led to the cold war phase which ended with the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991. Since then we have seen a unipolar world for a brief while but that phase ended probably with the 2008 with the global financial crisis. Now we are seeing a multipolar world or a polycentric world with no clear rules of the game.
New situations require new norms and rules. In an anarchic world where self-help rules, it is difficult to deal with the issue of the ‘Commons’ – atmosphere, outer space, oceans and cyberspace. The rules that have been formed are always insufficient as new contingencies arise. The Law of the Seas and the Outer Space Regime are turning out to be insufficient for modern conditions when the number of states and their aspirations have increased exponentially. In some cases, like in the case of cyberspace, there are no rules. When it comes to dealing with terrorism, with which the world has been struggling for decades, there's not even an agreement on the definition of terrorism. Some states merrily support terrorism as a policy but there are no rules in the existing system where they can be declared as terrorist states.
Economic space is also becoming unmanageable too. The rules for investments, cross-border flows of funds, taxation, global supply chains, online trade, illicit cross border flows of funds, terror funding are difficult to form and even more difficult to enforce. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been deadlocked for a number of years on the question of market access. The Doha Round, which seeks to address the concerns of developing nations, has not been completed. Technology has made borders less relevant while nation states continue to swear by sovereignty and its attributes.
The clash between technology and sovereignty is apparent. This is going to become worse as new technologies technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data analytics, reduce human autonomy and control over their action. The emergence of the Darknet, cryptocurrencies, unbreakable quantum encryption will shrink human autonomy of action even further.
Shifting Power Equations
An analysis of the recent trends shows that the established power equations will change. The rise of Asia has brought in sharp relief once again the intense competition in the Indo-Pacific Region. The region is unstable and there is as yet no viable security architecture that can take care of the problems like those in South China Sea and on the Korean Peninsula. The idea of Indo-Pacific is still a work in progress.
The region’s economy is too closely tied up with the economy of China. The China Dream signifies the rise of Han nationalism and undisguised quest for great power status. This will inevitably invite a backlash in countries like Japan which are looking for ways to strengthen their security in the backdrop of America First policy which raises doubts in the minds of allies.
Most regions of the world are showing signs of instability. West Asia is seeing the deepening of the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Arab Spring, rise of Islamic State (IS), civil wars in Yemen and Syria, re-emergence of Kurdish aspirations, and cracks within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are some manifestations of the region in turmoil. Again, there is no effective security architecture in the region to manage these deep-seated problems. Iran, despite its recent troubles, is confident, that it is the civilizational power in the region. It sees the unreformed Arab regimes as weak, dependent upon the US for their security and vulnerable to internal contradictions.
Central Asia, the heart of Mackinder's, Eurasia, is a playground for the great powers. Earlier, Britain and Russia competed for influence in the region. Today several powers are present - Russia trying to hold on to its past influence, China asserting itself with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the US which seems to have receded for the time being.
The US may be the largest economy, the largest military and technological power but its political influence is certainly not what it used to be. Many countries now feel that the US, embroiled in costly open ended wars for decades with no hopes of exit, can be challenged.
Russia, down but not out, is looking to resurrect its military power. If the oil prices remain high, it may even rejuvenate itself.
India and the World
India is also an aspiring power and looking for its place in the world. The compulsions of the tightrope walking that it had to do during the cold war era to avoid getting involved in great power proxy wars have given way to a confident policy of deeper engagement with the world on the basis of pragmatism and national interest.
Today India is in the midst of building interest based partnerships with great powers, with neighbors, with middle powers and in far flung corners of the globe. India feels confident that it can be an influential pole in the multipolar world. It is no longer hesitant to strike working relations with the various regional configurations. However, in these engagements India does not show hegemonic tendencies. Its belief is that security and growth should be for everyone to contribute and share.
India’s world view has been articulated at the highest level. In the conflict redden world, India is conveying the message of Vasudhaiva Kutumbkam (global family), security and growth for all (SAGAR), shared prosperity, samriddhi (Growth), samman (mutual respect) surakshaa (security), samvada (dialogue), sanskriti and sabhyata (culture). In more practical terms it is manifest in numerous initiatives – the Act East Policy, the Link West Policy, Connect Central Asia Policy, International Yoga Day, International Solar Alliance, cultural connects, Hindu-Buddhism Samvad, Indo-Pacific, a participation in SCO, BRICS, RIC, India Africa Forum, Malabar series of naval exercises, numerous defence cooperation agreements, maritime cooperation, capacity building, cyber security dialogue, counter-terrorism cooperation with other countries, environmental protection initiative and so on.
What are the sources of Indian foreign policy behavior? Clearly national interest is supreme. The foreign policy is closely intertwined with security policy. The country’s security takes precedence over everything else.
What is refreshing is that many ideas are rooted in India’s deep civilizational and cultural values. Indian ancient texts have much wisdom in them which can be harnessed to help in resolving contradictions, solving conflicts, protecting environment, promoting individuals rights. India’s culture is not to be mistaken for pacifism, which is the last resort of the weak. Peace cannot be achieved if the Dharma (righteousness) on the rule of law is violated every day. Doing dharmayuddha (right struggle) is the cardinal message of the Geeta. Likewise, there is strong emphasis on personal conduct and karma without the longing for the fruit.
These are powerful idea which need to be studied for their relevance and application to the modern day world. No one stop the kalachakara or the wheel of time. The time will move on. This means the world order will change. The only option left is to navigate the world. A reference to the deep roots of Indian civilization will help.
